Current Standings
1) Manchester United
2) Manchester City
3) Chelsea
4) Tottenham
5) Arsenal
6) Everton
7) West Brom
8) Stoke
9) Liverpool
10) Swansea
11) Norwich
12) West Ham
13) Sunderland
14) Fulham
15) Newcastle
16) Wigan
17) Aston Villa
18) Southampton
19) Reading
20) QPR
As expected, the Manchester clubs have been the
table-toppers for the majority of the season, with Manchester United currently
holding a seven-point edge over rivals Manchester City. The race is not
completely over for the other clubs, as Chelsea and Tottenham are not
completely out of it yet. It does look like another two-horse race, and United
have a big advantage from their win at City.
Team to Rise Up the
Table: Aston Villa
Things are very bleak for the Villans nowadays as they have
shipped an astounding fifteen goals over their last three games while also
failing to score. Injuries to key players Darren Bent, Richard Dunne and Gabby
Agbonlahor (among others) have forced manager Paul Lambert into starting an
extraordinarily young side. Despite some early success, this is not a
sustainable strategy in the gritty Premier League, where experience is often a
huge influence on a club’s place in the table. Villa’s youngsters have the
talent to compete in this league, but they need their older players to help grind
out results. Fortunately, these players will not be hurt forever, and I expect
the return of players from injury to provide a major boost. After last year’s
dreadful season under Alex McLeish, owner Randy Lerner will be desperate to
improve the standing of his side and may buy some experienced players when the
transfer window opens January 1st. I don’t see a dramatic change for Villa,
but this team has more talent on its roster than their place suggests. Expect
them to move up the table and avoid a relegation dogfight into the latter
stages of the season.
Team to Move Down the
Table: Stoke
The popular pick here is likely West Brom – but Stoke’s
results seem to be a bit less sustainable than those of the Baggies. I don’t see a
major decline from Stoke; Tony Pulis has built a sustainable model for the club
since their promotion in 2008 and the Britannia has always been a tough place
for Premier League teams to play. However, Stoke’s highest finish was 11th
place and they have finished in 12th, 13th and 14th
in their other three BPL seasons. This team could be more talented than many of
Pulis’s other nit-and-grit sides, but nonetheless plays a physical, bruising
style – Stoke’s leading goal scorer hasn’t topped twenty goals in this century.
The team has scored just twenty one goals in twenty Premier League games this season, but do hold the best defensive record in the division. Don’t expect the Potters to slip too far, but a finish more aligned with their
historical results should be in the cards.
The Final Two
Champions League Spots
I think it’s fair to say that United and City are virtual
locks for a minimum fourth-placed finish, so the final two places are in
question. Chelsea seem to be putting it together as well – an initial slow
start under Rafa Benitez has been quelled by some stunning attacking football.
The fourth place spot is the most debatable, as there up to five teams to be
considered as realistic contenders. I’m going to leave my preseason pick
(Liverpool) out of it for now, as they are quite a distance back and aren’t
playing nearly well enough to make a run right now.
That leaves four sides to consider – Arsenal, Everton,
Tottenham, and West Bromwich Albion. Arsenal have been in the Champions League
places every year and despite some early turmoil at the club, the Gunners have
improved greatly since the embarrassing Capital One Cup exit to Bradford.
Cazorla has been a magician in the middle, Walcott looks comfortable in the
striker’s role and the midfield has been boosted by the return of Jack
Wilshere. Arsenal still have a leaky defense but should be considered favorites
for a top-four finish among these clubs. Their cross-town rivals, Tottenham,
currently sit above them in the table and will be a serious threat to capture a
place in next year’s Champions League. After being snubbed last year despite a
fourth place finish, Spurs also endured a slow start before starting to shine
under Andre Villas-Boas. Tottenham and Arsenal look even on paper to me, but
the experience of Arsenal gives them a slight edge in the Premier League.
Tottenham are ahead in the table now but expect these two to be close to the
conclusion of the season.
The last two sides are relative outsiders to the top quarter
of the table. Everton have been a historically slow-starting side, but this
year got off to a great start, leading fans to believe it could be the year to
make a run at the Champions League places. David Moyes is one of the Premier
League’s best managers and Everton have a number of star players who can
sustain the current run of results. The suspension of Marouane Fellaini
and injuries have dampened the outlook for the Toffees but if they can have a
typical second-half Everton performance, they will be contenders. Lastly, West
Brom are the true underdogs as their top-half presence is a surprise to most.
They have defeated a number of good sides at the Hawthorns and have played a
very positive style throughout the season. That being said, this is the least
experienced or proven side in the top half of the table. Their attacking trio
of Shane Long, Romelu Lukaku and Peter Odemwingie will pose a threat to any
defense in the league. I don’t see West Brom being able to sustain a European
place, but don’t expect a major drop off from the Baggies either.
Relegation: Who Has
Hope?
Of course mathematically every team has hope of survival at
this stage of the season, but which teams could we actually see climb out of
the relegation zone and escape? Reading and Southampton were expected to
struggle in their respective returns to the top flight, but QPR’s inclusion
would have been a surprise after a number of big-name players were brought to
the club this summer. To say it has been a disaster at Loftus Road is a mere
understatement. The squad is filled with overpaid, underachieving, mediocre
footballers who did not come to play for former manager Mark Hughes and have
only slightly improved under Harry Redknapp – both proven Premier League
managers. When you consider the size of the contracts handed out to these
players, it isn’t as surprising as initially thought to see the R’s at the
bottom of the table. All hope is not lost – they aren’t too far from safety,
and if Redknapp is able to transform pieces of the squad, they could be of the
caliber expected at the beginning of the season.
Reading and Southampton are in unfamiliar territory – both
clubs have experience in the top flight but not recently, and both players and
managers are inexperienced at this level. Reading’s Jimmy Kebe even called the
Royals a “good Championship team” in response to a question about the club’s
transfer policy over the summer. You can’t really disagree. Neither of the
clubs brought in a number of quality players this summer (although Southampton
did splurge on Gaston Ramirez) and are now battling it out to stay alive for
another season. Both teams have defensive issues, but I give Southampton a
slight edge at survival because of their attacking playmakers. Reading need to
strengthen the squad during the transfer window or they will almost certainly
go down.
Liverpool
I decided to dedicate an entire section to Liverpool because
they have yet again made me feel like a fool for picking them to place fourth.
I don’t know what the expectations were from Liverpool fans but I certainly
expected them to be far better than they are. The most worrying part is that
the same problems they had under Roy Hodgson still persist – they don’t score enough
goals from their chances and they don’t have enough scoring threats on the
pitch. Luis Suarez has been their lone threat for over a year, and despite his
at times brilliant (think the equalizer against Newcastle) play, the Reds have
been constantly looking for someone to get them a goal. To be mid table at this
point in this season is a huge concern for Brendan Rodgers, as his side is more
talented than his Swansea side was, yet is performing no better.
What can they do? For one, they need to buy a striker – the
injury to Fabio Borini and the loan departure of Andy Carroll have left Suarez
as the only attacking threat, and he simply cannot do it alone every game.
Midfield is also a concern, as Stewart Downing is not a name that should be
reoccurring on a top-four side’s team sheet. The defense isn’t bad, nor is it
superb, so reinforcements would be helpful there as well, but the main
prerogative has to be obtaining a true striker. Liverpool will finish higher
than they are right now, but it’s hard to see them push for a Champions League
spot without major reinforcements. It’s too early to tell if Rodgers is the
right man, but the pressure will certainly mount if the Reds don’t start making
a serious charge soon.
