Arsenal got through the tie in Udine as expected, although not without a scare. I got seven out of my ten picks correct, but before I congratulate myself, the three I picked incorrectly were three of the closest ties to pick. So it was an okay forecast of the round. Plzen defeating Copenhagen was teh real surprise, with the Danish champions capitulating in the final qualifying round.
Today's draw gives us a clear group of death, with Group A containing Bayern, Villarreal, Man City, and Napoli. I can honestly say that looking at this group, there is no way to predict a winner, runner-up, third or fourth place. Bayern have the squad strength, tradition, and experience, but often lack the consistency to be considered a far-and-away favorite. Villarreal have very strong attacking options in Nilmar and Rossi, as well as experience in the back with Marchena, but have failed to impress in Europe in recent years. Man City probably have the strongest squad, and a manager with loads of European experience, but the group together and the club have no experience in the Champions League. Napoli also have strong forwards in Cavani, Lavezzi, and Hamsik, along with new signing Inler, but are also making their debut in the Champions League. Any order of those teams in the standings would be plausible to me at this point, so this group should be great to watch.
The other groups are generally not as close in quality, although there are some other parts of the draw which stand out. Manchester United again got an easy draw (probably the easiest of any Pot 1 side), with only a trip to Benfica that could really trouble them. Chelsea's draw was decent, as Valencia will be tough even without Mata and Leverkusen finished very strongly in the Bundesliga last year. Arsenal's draw was the second toughest, pulling French giants Marseille, Greek champions Olympiakos, and German champs Dortmund. Arsenal must keep focused in order to get through this group, as there will be no easy fixtures. I believe the tightest group (although being the least flashy) will be Group G, containing Porto, Shakhtar Donetsk, Zenit, and APOEL. Other than Group A, these teams are closest in quality, all of experience in the Champions League, and have the ability to get the results they need to get through. Porto is a clear favorite and APOEL a clear underdog, but this group should be very competitive from start to finish.
The Europa League's action today saw all four competing English teams go through, along with giants Schalke, PSV, PSG, and Lazio go through. Roma were eliminated by Slovan Bratislava (yikes). That draw will bring more interesting matchups, of a far lower quality though. We will see tomorrow. Hopefully the end of Sevilla-Hannover brings some drama.
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