Matchday 10 in the EPL + Matchday 4 in the Champions League

This is the week I finally start believing in Newcastle. For all of the criticism their management has taken, Newcastle has simply been stunning - undefeated through ten games and sitting third in the Premier League, sitting ahead of big-spending squads Chelsea, Arsenal, and Liverpool. The keys to Newcastle's success are midfielder Yohann Cabaye and striker Demba Ba. Both have proved bargains, which Newcastle's management has always hunted for, with Ba looking world-class at times. It's not reasonable to think Newcastle will continue this sort of form - they have not played City, United or Chelsea yet. However, I think this team can be a force this year, provided they stay healthy. After the international break in November, Newcastle head to City and United, then face Chelsea at home. We will know much more about the Magpies' credentials after those games.

This weekend's disappointing performance went to Chelsea, as they were beaten 5-3 by Arsenal at home. I have not seen such a sloppy game between the two teams since I started watching the two play each other. High-scoring games are not always sloppy - Chelsea had a 4-4 draw with Liverpool two years ago, and the game was one of the most entertaining and well-played games I've seen. This game was full of defensive mistakes (Mertesacker, Terry), poor goalkeeper play, and a general lack of defensive responsibility. It's a huge win for Arsenal, as they finally seem to have put their early-season form completely behind them. It really shows how far the Gunners have come, even though I feel Chelsea played as horribly as they have all season.

This week brings back the Champions League, with a few enticing ties tomorrow. Valencia host Bayer Leverkusen in a game that will help determine who will finish second in Group E. Bayer leads by four points after their 2-1 win over Los Che last matchday. Valencia are very strong at home and should win this game to keep their hopes alive. Group G leaders APOEL host Porto in Nicosia following their 1-1 draw in Portugal last week. Can APOEL do it again? I feel like I can't doubt them anymore, and there will be a huge crowd ready to welcome them. A draw or win would put the minnows in great shape to go through. Dortmund faces a must-win game home to Olympiakos after losing 3-1 in Greece. Dortmund has improved of late - I think they have a great chance to win here to jump-start their campaign. All of the other games seem pretty straight-forward, put as always is with the Champions League, we will see. Here are my picks for tomorrow:

BATE Borisov - AC Milan: AWAY WIN
Zenit - Shakhtar: HOME WIN
APOEL - FC Porto: DRAW
Arsenal - Marseille: HOME WIN
Dortmund - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
Genk - Chelsea: AWAY WIN
Plzen - Barcelona: AWAY WIN
Valencia - Bayer Leverkusen: HOME WIN

Making Sense of the Manchester Derby

As I woke up at 8:25 on Sunday morning, I wondered whether sacrificing an extra two hours of sleep would be worth the two hours of football I was about to watch. I figured it was too important of a game to miss, but derbies can disappoint with conservative play and poor finishing. After twenty minutes of stalemate, City brought the game to life, and dominated the defending champions for the remaining 70+ minutes. It was shocking more than anything; many, including myself, thought City would at least be able to snatch a point at Old Trafford, but such a resounding win was completely out of the [sky] blue. United had been fortunate all season not to concede more, and they were finally punished by City's five second half goals.

Selection played a huge role in this game. Mancini picked an attacking side, favoring Balotelli to Dzeko, and Milner to Nasri. Balotelli was fantastic, creating space for himself and scoring the first two goals of the game. Milner was a creator in midfield, while dominating United's Fletcher and Anderson throughout the game. Fergie opted for Welbeck over Hernandez in attack and Evans over Jones in central defense. Welbeck was a non-factor, barely seeing the ball and unable to create any chances. A friend of mine (United fan) had hoped Sir Alex would not choose Evans, and his selection turned out to be United's downfall, as he was ineffective in the first half before getting sent off two minutes into the second. SAF was likely choosing experience in this sort of game, but Evans has consistently made errors and cost United goals. His sending off made any chance for a United comeback virtually impossible. 

At the end of the day, it's one game, and had City won 1-0, the points would look the same as they do today. However, City must be thrilled about their win, moving five points clear of their rivals while embarrassing their rivals. If anyone doubted City's chances of challenging for the title, all those must be dashed. For United, their luck ran out and the defense was finally exposed for what it is - below average. Their attacking options are among the best in the Premier League, but their defense and midfield must improve if they are to keep up with City. The biggest concern is how United seemed to give up. Conceding three goals beyond 88 minutes shows that they simply stop trying at the end, allowing City to run up the total on them. SAF will surely demand effort for the entire 90 minutes, regardless of the score.

As for the other games in the Premier League, I don't even want to get into the Chelsea game - it was the second-worst refereeing performance I have ever witnessed (after Barcelona). They played extremely well with nine men, which is crazy in the Premier League. QPR has a lot of issues. Arsenal seems to be starting to put it all together while Tottenham continues to surge. I still see Spurs as favorites for fourth. Liverpool again did not convert their chances and continue to lose ground on their rivals. Newcastle are still unbeaten, somehow. If they can keep this up for a few more weeks they will be the shock of the season. Lastly, I'm extremely impressed with Norwich. They give everyone a tough time, win lose or draw. I think they have the spirit, while maybe lacking the talent, to stay up this season.

Champions League - Matchday 3 - Day 2

Yesterday's games were typically as close as anticipated. City scraped their way through a 2-1 win over Villarreal for their first ever Champions League win. CSKA's win over Trabzonspor throws Group B back into the balance, with Inter somehow putting their domestic form aside to top the group. The best game from yesterday was between Napoli and Bayern, where chances were few and Bayern's defense was finally breached, albeit through an own goal. If Napoli can gain another draw in Germany, or City fail to win in Spain, they would still be in great shape to go through, as City must visit Naples on Matchday 5.

Today's games look much less clear-cut than yesterday. Milan, Barcelona, and Chelsea should all be comfortable winners at home, but the other five games look as if they could go either way. Group F gets the spotlight today, with Marseille hosting Arsenal and Dortmund traveling to Greece to take on Olympiakos. Marseille, like Inter, is struggling mightily domestically, winning just one of their opening ten games. However, Arsenal has not looked right this season either, so the game will feature lots of talent trying to form itself into respective teams. Meanwhile, Dortmund travels to Greece needing a win after their 3-0 loss to Marseille, while Olympiakos have failed to gain a point in their first to games, despite being in both games to the end. Both teams need a win here to kickstart the campaign, but I don't think either will get it. Two draws look on the cards here, and despite the talent in the group, there most likely won't be too much scoring today.

My upset pick yesterday was a miserable failure as Basel lost to Benfica, and as much as I would like to see the Cypriots APOEL keep up their great run of form, I think Porto will take them down today. It should be a good game though, with the Portuguese in control and APOEL trying to hit them on the counter, much like APOEL's game against Shakhtar. Here's my picks for today:

AC Milan - BATE Borisov: HOME WIN
Barcelona - Viktoria Plzen: HOME WIN (no Rubin Kazan repeat)
Bayer Leverkusen - Valencia: HOME WIN
Chelsea - Racing Genk: HOME WIN
FC Porto - APOEL: HOME WIN
Marseille - Arsenal: DRAW
Olympiakos - Dortmund: DRAW
Shakhtar Donetsk - Zenit St. Petersburg: HOME WIN

Champions League - Matchday 3

The Champions League continues this week, with the home-and-home games during Matchdays three and four. During these two weeks, teams always play the same opponent, with one game home and one game away. These games are often crucial in determining the final group standings. There are a number of mismatches in tomorrow's games but also some very interesting fixtures.

The early game features a Group B encounter between last-place CSKA Moscow and surprising first place Trabzonspor. This is a game CSKA desperately needs - they only have one point from their first two games and dropped their last game to struggling Inter at home. Trabzonspor has impressed, snatching a win in Milan while playing well in a draw against Ligue 1 high-fliers Lille. Trabzonspor have kept up their good form domestically and will certainly not be overmatched in Russia, but Russian teams are usually strong at home and CSKA will know that they need this game. I think the Russians will take a tight win going into the next fixture in Turkey.

I feel like I must write about Group A because of the dearth of talent between the four teams. Napoli takes on Bayern while City is home to Villarreal. I think City will take care of Villarreal without too much trouble, and while Bayern looks like the best team in the group, Napoli are very strong at home and have loads of attacking power. Bayern's backline has been shaky in the past, but they have not conceded a goal in eight straight domestic games - quite an impressive run of form. Having Manuel Neuer in goal certainly helped solidify the defense. Napoli has the talent to win here, but a 0-0 or 1-1 draw looks like the likely result.

Basel hosts Benfica tomorrow to begin the home-and-home, which is huge for both teams. Basel got a dream result in Manchester with the 3-3 draw, while the Portuguese are also off to a good start with four points from the first two games. This game is my upset pick - I think Basel wins this game to go three clear of Benfica before the teams head to Lisbon. Basel is in very impressive form and Benfica are not as strong away in Europe as they are at home. Here are all of my selections for tomorrow's games:

CSKA Moscow - Trabzonspor: HOME WIN
FC Basel - Benfica: HOME WIN
Dinamo Zagreb - Ajax: AWAY WIN
Lille - Inter Milan: DRAW
Manchester City - Villarreal: HOME WIN
Napoli - Bayern Munich: DRAW
Otelul Galati - Manchester United: AWAY WIN
Real Madrid - Lyon: HOME WIN

Key Points to Look At For the Remainder of the Premier League Season

This week highlighted a few questions that will exist for the entire Premier League season:

Will any team punish Manchester United’s defensive weaknesses? It seems like nearly every week there is a discussion about United’s defense, and after the poor showing in a 3-3 draw against Basel midweek, United again looked fragile in defense during their 2-0 win over Norwich. A clean sheet doesn’t really tell the story – there were numerous chances (not just half-chances) that Norwich had to score, with Anthony Pilkington particularly culpable. Norwich is not one of the better teams in the league, but Chelsea and Tottenham have also failed to punish United’s faults in the back. Is it just luck that United are not giving up as many goals, or is their defensive scene not as bad as it looks at times? It will be interesting to see if they continue to get the breaks or if they are finally punished for their weak defending.

Can Manchester City put aside its off-field issues to win any trophies this season? Carlos Tevez struck again this week, as did Edin Dzeko, and the City formula seemed to be unraveling again. But a thumping 4-0 win over Blackburn over the weekend seemed to put the issues to the side, despite an injury to Sergio Aguero. With the great investment City’s owners have made in the team comes the egos of overpaid players. If Roberto Mancini can continue to get results from his side, they have the talent and experience to challenge for the top in every competition. If the other issues consume the side, they will likely endure another trophy-less season. 

Who will take fourth place in the league? A common question for the past few years – however, this season presents only two real candidates for fourth: Tottenham and Liverpool. It looks like a three-horse race for the title between United, City and Chelsea; I don’t think Newcastle is a legitimate contender despite their blazing form, and Arsenal is still a ways away from being in serious contention. Tottenham looks very strong, with a flurry of attacking options in Adebayor, Defoe, Modric, Bale, and Van der Vaart. Liverpool have not been as impressive of late, but also have strong attacking options with Carroll, Suarez, Adam, and Gerrard on his return. This race could involve more teams if something unexpected happens, but it looks like a two-team duel for fourth. 

Which relegation contenders will stay consistent enough to stay up? This is shaping up to be one of the best relegation battles of recent years, as the promoted teams are all playing well so far. Many years the key to survival is consistency, and avoiding long stretches without taking three points from a game. Bolton are currently in a six-game slide, while Blackburn and Wolves have also endured stretches in the early season without gaining points. The biggest games for lower-table sides are the games in which they play each other, while points gained against the top sides are “bonuses.” Early losses against Chelsea, Manchester United and Manchester City are of little concern to sides like Norwich and Swansea, but the final standings will likely be decided when they face off against each other.