Jose Mourinho: Not the Right Fit for Manchester United

This morning, Jose Mourinho was hired as manager of Manchester United. It was a job he spoke about continually after departing Chelsea in 2007, as he hoped to succeed Sir Alex Ferguson upon his retirement. Ferguson chose David Moyes instead, and Mourinho went back to Chelsea, where he had one good year, one great year, and half of last year which ended in a complete disaster. Meanwhile, Manchester United have been far below their historical standards, finishing seventh, fourth and fifth in the past three seasons.

As a Chelsea supporter, I don’t blame Mourinho at all, or hate him, for joining Manchester United. His players revolted on him at Chelsea and Roman Abramovich had no choice but to fire him. The Premier League is one of the most emotional sporting competitions in the world, and clearly the locker room at Chelsea was not behind him. I expressed my disdain for the chief antagonists in that development in my last post and I hope they’re shipped out of London this summer. Anyway, Mourinho isn’t exactly an endearing coach. It’s his way or the highway, and when things are going well, he is the first to bask in the glory. When things aren’t going so well, it quickly falls apart for him. The United board was already hesitant to hire him so I don’t expect him to be on a long leash. He hasn’t exactly had the best relations with boards of directors at his previous clubs.

There are a number of issues in play here. I believe many United fans misunderstood the purpose of Louis Van Gaal’s tenure. Not particularly endearing himself, Van Gaal rarely displayed the type of vigor many United fans wanted to see (but his flop on the touchline was pretty epic). It was his job to transition the team from the disaster that Moyes gave him to a title challenger in three years. The team finished lower in the table this year, and some of his purchases were certainly questionable, but he helped develop many of United’s best players. Marcus Rashford made a splash when Van Gaal put him in the lineup (he scored a goal on his debut for England today), and Van Gaal helped develop Memphis Depay and Daley Blind with United and previously with the Dutch national team. Anthony Martial is arguably the best position player on the team. Van Gaal has a strong record of developing youth and did relatively well with a young team. Jesse Lingard scored the winner for him in the FA Cup final, his final game. Was winning the title ever a realistic goal with the squad he had? Absolutely not. Tactically, United were very boring, and I think that’s why he was ultimately fired. Also, missing out on the Champions League because of the loss at West Ham was a killer.

As for Mourinho… First things first, if Mourinho is allowed to spend at will, United will be a contender, regardless of his antics. Mourinho has a way of getting the best out of players with somewhat obscure personalities – his great relationship with transfer target Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a perfect example, as is the 2014-15 performance of Diego Costa. United finished fifteen points behind Cinderella-side Leicester, their closest finish to the top since Sir Alex left, so it’s not like Mourinho needs to pull some sort of miracle to take them towards the upper echelon. He also has the best goalie in the league in David De Gea. He will need to buy, especially for midfielders and a striker, and if he is allowed to do so, it’s hard to see United struggling again.

However… there are a number of ways Mourinho just doesn’t fit the club:

1. He doesn’t trust youth. Van Gaal has spent the last two years developing players, many through the academy, a United staple. Their golden generations have come through the academy and shined for years as homegrown players. Young players like Marcus Rashford, Cameron Borthwick-Jackson and Adnan Januzaj are not going to play under Mourinho. He simply doesn’t do it. He will buy more experienced players to replace them. They’ll get a few starts in cup games, but it’s more likely you’ll see them shipped out on loan. Also, the existing side is old. With Wayne Rooney, Michael Carrick and Bastian Schweinsteiger are all well past their prime, Mourinho will have to spend heavily to get a starting XI that he’s comfortable with.

2. His style is usually boring. United was not exactly an exciting team to watch last year; they finished 10th in scoring, with just one more goal than nearly-relegated Sunderland. David Moyes played a long-ball style which was terrible, and while Van Gaal emphasized possession more, his players were often unable to do much with it. Mourinho plays on the counter. He can have his players play directly and I would expect more goals, but it’s not exactly a Pep Guardiola-esque free-flowing attack. His style was one of the major reasons United hesitated to hire him to begin with. One of his strengths is his tactical genius, but his style will not always, or maybe ever, please supporters.

3. He is overbearing. United has already given Mourinho the final say on all transfers, which definitely will help relations, as they have already accepted this to begin with. It’s not just transfers with him, it’s preparations, warm-ups, even team doctors that he feels he needs to control. As a club, United just don’t have that kind of personality, and when he used this approach at Real Madrid they eventually threw him out.

Mourinho has a lot to prove at United. He has to prove that he hasn’t lost his tactical acumen and that he can manage a big club without annoying everyone within it. I thought a move to a national side would have been more logical for him (he would’ve made a great coach for Portugal), but he has always wanted the United job, so he had to take the opportunity. The squad needs major improvements, and Mourinho will be successful if he is allowed to bring in a number of superstars. He won’t trust youth, and if he is not immediately successful, he will start alienating people at the club. Club legend Ryan Giggs is already on his way out after Mourinho’s appointment. I don’t have a prediction for Manchester United’s season, mostly because summer transfers will shape their potential success. With Leicester, Tottenham, Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea all contending for the title next year, Mourinho has a very difficult job on his hands. I understand why United hired him – he is definitely the best coach available at this point in time. But at first glance, he doesn’t look like the right man for the job.

Premier League Preview

Manchester City were last season’s champions, which was expected throughout but required some slip ups, both literally and figuratively, from Liverpool to happen. Chelsea was close but just didn't have that cutting edge. There are seven contenders for this year’s title. Here is how I rank them:

Chelsea has the best team on paper. They have an experienced tactician now saddled with the team that he wants. The only thing in the balance is to see if Jose Mourinho still has his magic touch and is able to put the pieces together into one of his championship units. They are strong in every position – they even have two of the top goalkeepers in the world. Signings Filipe Luis, Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas fill the team’s voids from last season. Nemanja Matic will be eligible in the Champions League and will anchor the midfield with Fabregas and Marco Van Ginkel. The only question is their ability to mesh together – sometimes Chelsea would look very discombobulated and out-of-sync, especially against weak opposition. The Costa addition should help address the lack of goals from the forward position, and although the sale of Romelu Lukaku could wind up hurting the club in the long run, Chelsea looks well-rounded and deep. An injury to Costa or Matic would leave Chelsea the most exposed, but there are so many talented attacking players in the side to fill the void. If the squad is able to mesh, Chelsea will dominate the league.

Arsenal finally ended their trophy drought with last year’s FA Cup title, and followed it up with another victory in the Community Shield against Manchester City. They will have their issues in defense but their attacking options can cause anyone problems with both pace and finesse. Alexis Sanchez was the big signing, but Yaya Sanogo will be a key player for Arsenal. If he can emerge into a Premier League level striker, Arsenal will contend for the title. If he cannot, there will be games where Arsenal are missing that little extra firepower to take the title.

Defensively they have plenty of questions. The departure of Thomas Vermaelen means that Arsene Wenger has enough confidence in Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker to carry the squad. New captain Mikel Arteta will have to have one of his best seasons. At age 33, his best years could be behind him, but perhaps this could be the least asked of him, considering the talent surrounding him on the field. Arsenal haven’t been in a title race for years – this squad is finally close to the caliber needed to endure the long season. I expect good things from Arsenal, but they will need to play much better against the top teams in the league – an area where they were beaten heavily on multiple occasions last term.

Manchester City are the defending champions, and have retained the core of last year’s team. David Silva, one of their best players, has committed to the club long-term, signing a new five-year deal. City were fortunate to take last season’s trophy, but they have one of the top squads on the continent, and owners who certainly aren’t afraid to spend. City will look to be ambitious in Europe as well - their transition from a rising, rich club to an established superpower is finally complete. After City won their first title three years ago, there was a noticeable drop off during the following season. Their offensive weapons are plentiful and probably the best in the league, but despite signings of Bacary Sagna and Fernando to help the defense and holding midfield, I see their defense as a weak spot. Joe Hart has failed to convince during his years as City's #1 in goal, and Willy Caballero was terrible against Arsenal. City will score a ton of goals and should be right in the thick of it, but without someone stepping up in the defensive third, they will drop too many points.

Liverpool were last season’s surprise story. Brendan Rodgers has put together a very complete squad but lost his top player and goalscorer, Luis Suarez, to Barcelona. While the embattled Suarez’s departure will certainly help Liverpool off the field, his absence will be felt on it, and with no viable replacement signed this offseason, Liverpool will struggle to replicate their second-place finish. Dejan Lovren was a big signing, helping what was a beleaguered defense last season, but other signings, including two others from Southampton, will have less of an impact. I like the prospects of Adam Lallana but I don’t really see how he fits into the team. Liverpool will have a strong midfield but I still see weaknesses in defense and an attacked centered around Daniel Sturridge. He had a great season last year and has proven himself with the Reds, but overreliance on Sturridge, who was very erratic in his Chelsea days and is now without his strike partner, could be costly. Liverpool shouldn’t experience a drastic dropout, but I see a battle for a top-four place.Tottenham learned that losing your best player and replacing him with a few good ones usually doesn't work.

Manchester United are a popular bounce back candidate under new coach Louis Van Gaal. United have been impressive in the preseason, but I don’t see them reaching the top 4 this year. David Moyes mismanaged the club and was a major factor in the rapid descent of the club, but the players are not good enough and there weren’t enough big signings to overhaul the squad. The team that won the title two years ago was far too reliant on currently injured Dutchman Robin Van Persie, and there are a number of unproven players that Van Gaal will be forced to give a chance. He did a fantastic job with Holland, taking a team of youngsters to a third place finish in Brazil this summer, but the league season is a long grind, not a short sprint. Van Gaal will help develop some of the young talent and can certainly stop the bleeding from last year, but a quick jump back into the top four looks unlikely to me.

Everton’s signing of Romelu Lukaku completely changes the outlook on the season. Without Lukaku, they were without a bona fide striker and one of their top players from last season. With him, they should continue to be a dangerous side. Roberto Martinez has proven himself to be one of the best managers in the Premier League, and with Everton actually buying players after years of catching up with debt, a top four place is hardly out of the question. Everton has always been a show-me squad; I'm not going to predict them to finish in the top four until I see it. They play a very attractive style and their matches with Liverpool should be very intense, but I don't see the depth to crack the Champions League places. It should be another good campaign from Everton, and Martinez will continue building this squad for the future.

Tottenham took a huge step backwards last season. It began with Andre Villas-Boas, ended with Tim Sherwood, and was underwhelming throughout. Gareth Bale’s move to Real Madrid gave Daniel Levy a massive paycheck to spend on new players, which he did – but very few shone during the rocky season. Eric Lamela was the biggest underperformer, with his move from Roma a complete flop amid talks of him leaving the club after just one year. Mauricio Pochettino proved a success at Southampton and he could be the right man in North London. Spurs could prove to be very good this year but they don’t stack up well against the teams above them. They have more rebuilding to do and have had the least success in the transfer market. It will be interesting to see if Pochettino can end the club’s disappointing run, or if the new players will continue to struggle. Spurs and Everton are both very good sides, but the top three teams are so strong that it's going to be difficult to take a European place.

The best team defensively in any sport is often the one who wins. Chelsea had the best defensive record last season and their defense could be even better this season. I just see Arsenal and City dropping points because of their potential defensive issues. Regardless, it should be a tight race and I'm looking forward to the season starting this weekend.

Projected Top 7:

1)      Chelsea
2)      Arsenal
3)      Manchester City
4)      Liverpool
5)      Manchester United
6)      Everton
7)      Tottenham
Trivia: Who is the highest scoring active player in the English Premier League?

Last answer: Brazil and Italy. Brazil won both finals, in 1970 and 1994.

Champions League Quarterfinals Review

The results were as follows (on aggregate)

Real Madrid 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Chelsea 3 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain (Chelsea advances on away goals)

Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Manchester United

Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Barcelona

It sounds simple, but at this point, the teams that move on are the teams that take their chances – possession, style of play, etc. don’t really matter because all of the teams are good. All four quarterfinal losers had plenty of chances to create a different result than their ultimate defeats, and for PSG and Dortmund, it is especially painful to go out because they had several great chances to score more goals. It doesn’t always matter what the matchup is – putting the ball in the net, whether it’s out of one chance or twenty, is why the four semi-finalists are through. The Champions League isn’t about being the best; it’s about doing enough to win. 

I figured on Atletico – Barcelona being the toughest to call, and it’s the first one of this year’s knockout round that I gave an incorrect prediction. In truth, it wasn’t all that close – Atletico were clearly the better side. I would say Barcelona may have edged the first leg, despite trailing on away goals, but in the second leg Atletico were rampant. They allowed Barca to stay in the tie but created numerous wonderful chances and were very unlucky, hitting the bar three times in the first twenty minutes of the match. They are a hard-working side and their place atop La Liga and in the semi-finals of the Champions League can only be questioned by those who have not seen the team play. They have a disruptive style of play by pressing high up the pitch, which allows them to brush aside smaller, weaker opposition. Barcelona have proven themselves to be somewhat of a one-dimensional side, and while they are elite in their tiki-taka passing, they have been taken out in the last three years by teams that bullied them physically. With their world champion Spanish midfield nearing the end of their prime, if not already at the end already, Barcelona is facing a transitional phase. Their loss to Granada at the weekend just compounds what has been a disappointing season for the Catalans.

The tie between Chelsea and PSG was always going to be close because the teams play in a very similar way. They are both led from the back, have exciting wing players with pace, as well as being strong at home while not as dominating on the road. I actually think PSG played poorly in this tie, perhaps due to their inexperience in the competition, and losing Zlatan for the second leg really hurt them. Cavani was lost up top and could have buried Chelsea twice but failed to hit the target on either occasion. But starting from the first leg, they played passively and gave Chelsea the chance to dominate the first half. In the second half they were better, but scored the two goals because of some terrible defending, not great football. In the second leg, they started off positively, and looked comfortable until Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea. That set off what seemed to be fear throughout the whole side, and it took almost thirty minutes, when Yohan Cabaye came on, for the side to stabilize. They were better and should have killed off the game but didn’t, and now must face more questions of their credentials. I think the French Ligue 1 doesn’t test them enough, and while that is something they have little control over, it’s going to be hard to put PSG in the elite class until they can prove themselves on the continental stage. 

I’m not taking away anything from Chelsea here. There are few sides I would give a better chance of overturning a 3-1 deficit than the Blues, if any at all, and overcoming the loss of Eden Hazard made the triumph even more impressive. Not many teams can lose their best player, who is also the center of their attacking game plan, and beat a team like PSG by two goals. Were they fortunate? I wouldn’t say so – they hit two posts and looked like the better side for a majority of the two legs. They were sloppy in France and were punished, but they put together a determined performance at the Bridge. Mourinho and Chelsea personify the attitude of getting results, and not worrying about how the result is achieved. That looping shot from Ba was just enough to see Chelsea through.

When Patrice Evra scored his thunderous volley (see it if you haven’t), Manchester United had a lead against Bayern Munich after almost 150 of the 180 minutes of the tie. That is something I never really considered as a possibility, and interestingly enough, they were playing well enough to deserve it. That lead lasted all of 70 seconds, and after that lead evaporated so quickly into the Allianz Arena air, you could tell it was over. The sad part for United is that this was their best tactical showing of the year, and it was against an opponent they knew would try to dominate them. From his days at Everton, David Moyes was used to having less talent than his opponents, but he could shape his sides to put in hardworking performances while not seeing much of the ball. Manchester United plays on the ball, and as a top club, must dominate it in most games. That is why he is not the man for this job – he doesn’t have that style in his playbook, and these players don’t either. He did a great job in this tie because it was one where he had to be defensive, and if he had a healthy Wayne Rooney, or Robin Van Persie, they just may have squeaked through. As it is, they are out and have virtually no chance at reaching the competition next year through their place in the league. If Moyes stays on to rebuild the squad to make it back to the Champions League, he’s going to have to blow up the way it’s structured now. 

As for Bayern, it was very unimpressive. They were poor in Manchester despite having over 75% of the ball and were dreadful in Munich until Evra woke them up with his screamer. The bottom line is that if they play like that in the next round, they will be out. United were the weakest team in the draw, and Bayern prepared for them like they knew that. It was positive to see the side adapt after going a goal down to quickly brush away their fans’ fears of a shock exit, but there are plenty of causes for concern. Perhaps the weakness of the Bundesliga, which Bayern had a large role in creating, is creating a lackadaisical feeling in the locker room. They were rather fortunate against Arsenal and United to make it through. Bayern can be the best team in the world, and from this stage on, they must start to play like it or they will be eliminated. 

Real Madrid must be a frustrating side to root for. They played exactly the way I thought they would in the first leg, dominating a decimated Dortmund team missing their top striker. I know Ronaldo didn’t play in the second leg but they were terrible in Dortmund. Terrible. They could have been 3-0 down at halftime and Dortmund had a number of golden chances to score in the second half. I just don’t understand it, Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach and tactician, so I don’t get how missing Ronaldo (he’s great of course) turns them into such a slow team. Everything was slow, conservative, and the defense was mistake-happy, gifting Reus a brace. Very surprising performance in that regard. I think it's one they can brush off quickly, but they added to their miserable history in Germany after putting a stop on it in the round of 16.

I thought Dortmund would be very overmatched here and what they proved is that if Jurgen Klopp stays at the club, they will be a force to be reckoned with. They have suffered through injuries, transfer rumors, and pre-contract signatures of its best players to Bayern Munich, but Dortmund had a great chance to reach the semi-finals for a second straight year. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a wonderful player, but he has underperformed this season and missed an open goal that would have tied the aggregate at 3. The squad bounced back to crush Bayern 3-0 over the weekend, with Klopp sitting Lewandowski to start. A test for next season perhaps? Klopp is already trying to gain an edge.

The semifinals are drawn as such:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Possibilities include a Madrid derby in Lisbon's final, as well as a rematch of the 2012 final. It should be interesting - these are four great teams but nobody is in particularly great form. Preview coming late this week.

UEFA Champions League - Quarterfinal Preview

Overall everything went as planned - I expected to see all of these teams go through and with the exception of Man United, it had looked that way through the first leg. Am I surprised United were able to overturn the 2-0 deficit against Olympiakos? No, but I am surprised at the performance from the Greeks. United have been fragile at home all season and Olympiakos just sat back and let them do what they wished. As good as they were in Piraeus is how bad they were at Old Trafford, and United live on in the competition - winning it is their only hope of reappearing next year.

At this point, any teams can be drawn against one another, whereas teams were disqualified from playing each other in the last round if they were in the same group or from the same country. Only four countries have representatives left - Spain (3), England (2), Germany (2) and France (1). The matchups are as follows - the first team listed is home for the first leg:

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea
Manchester United - Bayern Munich

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid

Very interesting matchup - Atletico currently lead La Liga by one point over Barcelona. They have met three times already this season, with all three resulting in draws and just two goals being scored. Both teams are known for their offensive firepower, but these two sides are the top two defensive teams in La Liga. Given the stage, I wouldn't expect things to open up. Goals are going to be few and far between.

Although I have never been a huge fan of Victor Valdes, his season-ending injury puts Barcelona in a difficult position. Their defensive record is more due to their midfield than their defense, and teams that are able to counter Barcelona effectively and bypass that midfield are usually able to find the net. In their meetings this season, Atletico have pressed Barca in midfield, forcing them to play quickly in the final third, but allowing the Catalans a huge majority of the ball. It is generally a massive mistake to try and over-press Barca because they can and will punish you. In this case, I think Atletico can use that strategy and force defensive errors. Diego Simeone has done an amazing job with this team and they have conceded just 9 goals in 16 home matches in the league.

This is by far the toughest matchup to pick. I am going to pick Barcelona just because they have more experience at this stage, and with a better attacking force, they are more likely to make Atletico pay for a momentary lapse. It's really up in the air though - there has been nothing to separate the two sides this season. Valdes' injury leaves Barca even more vulnerable at the back, and against a tough Atletico defense, they could be in trouble if they don't leave the Camp Nou with a lead. I think they will, and their task will be to hold on at the Vicente Calderon.

Prediction: Barcelona 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid (1 – 0 H, 1 – 1 A)

Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund

They meet again. Real Madrid fell 4-3 on aggregate to Borussia Dortmund in last year's semifinals, but they will get another shot at Jurgen Klopp's side, this time playing at home first. After leading the league for a good portion of the last few months, two successive defeats have made Real outsiders to claim the title. Cristiano Ronaldo will look to add to his Champions League-leading 13 goals this term against a side that allowed four goals over two games in the previous round. I've spoken quite a bit about my disdain for Bayern's behavior in the transfer market, and the brunt of their moves have been aimed at Dortmund. They simply aren't the same team. Their 5-4 aggregate victory over a weak Zenit side in the last round is an illustration of their regression from their elite sides of the past few years.

Although this matchup looks like a grudge match for Real Madrid, I think this will come a lot easier for them than it may appear. They were nervous last year at home after being battered 4-1 at Dortmund, and still managed to win 2-0 and nearly squeak through. This year's Dortmund team is not nearly as good, and this year's Real team should be going for broke in the Champions League after falling off the pace in La Liga. Dortmund are in second place in the Bundesliga, but their confidence has been sapped by the Robert Lewandowski saga. They haven't hit the level they played at last season, and they needed everything they had to get by Real at that point. Now, they won't have Lewandowski in the first leg because of suspension and the rest of the team, especially the defense, has been far less impressive. Real can put this tie to bed in at the Bernabeu and not have to worry about their traditionally poor record in Germany (although they did crush Schalke 6-1 in the last round). For Dortmund, they must show the form that got them to last year's final and must do so without one of their best players in the first leg. Heavy advantage for Madrid here.

Prediction: Real Madrid 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund (3 – 0 H, 1 – 2 A)

PSG - Chelsea

This is the matchup the public was likely hoping for, as Laurent Blanc's upstart PSG side take on Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. There has been quite a bit said in the press about this matchup, as players from each club have ties to the other side. Eden Hazard has ties to PSG from his childhood, while Lucas Moura spoke highly of both him and Oscar to the press after the draw. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has played for Jose Mourinho before, and the two won Serie A together and had a good relationship during their short spell together at Inter.

I expect Chelsea to play very defensively in the first match. Mourinho has exited the Champions League in the semi finals in each of the past three seasons, and in the last two, he has gotten caught playing too openly away from home. Last year's 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund put his Real side in a near-impossible position, and although they came close with a 2-0 win, it was hardly a classic Mourinho tie. He wants low-scoring, tight, defensive battles because he disciplines his teams in the final third. Chelsea have struggled at times away from home this season, and with PSG sporting a 42:5 goal tally at home in Ligue 1, it would be wise to avoid being too aggressive. PSG can be deadly in attack, but have yet to consistently dominate as an attacking force. However, with Zlatan in the team, goals can come from nothing. Chelsea does have the right players to match up with him - both Gary Cahill and John Terry are big, experienced center backs who play a physical brand of defense. But no player is a "good" matchup against Zlatan and he scored four goals against England in 2012 with Cahill in the lineup. It's best of luck to whoever is trying to stop him.

PSG and Chelsea are very similar sides and this tie will be decided by which forwards take their limited chances or by a moment of brilliance. There is world class talent across the board so anything is possible. Chelsea are at a clear disadvantage in the forward position and have struggled to find goals away from home. Their defense has been tested on this stage many times and they will be trying to get to the point where they can win the tie at Stamford Bridge. PSG must establish an advantage at home to get through to the next round. I think they're one year away from getting over this hurdle. They are not tested frequently enough in Ligue 1, with only Monaco somewhat close, and they are now without Falcao due to his knee injury. Chelsea should find themselves in the semifinals as long as they are not overrun in the first leg by PSG's prolific attacking force.

Prediction: PSG 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Manchester United - Bayern Munich

When Philipp Lahm said that he was "happy" with the draw against Manchester United, he was not talking about a big club matchup. United's shambolic season made them the most attractive draw, and they are now in the hands of the favorites to win the trophy. David Moyes has been under constant pressure in the media all season, and although most United fans still back him, most observers (such as myself) think that he is in over his head. They will also be without Robin Van Persie due to injury. Bayern are rolling through the Bundesliga and have dropped only six points all season, drawing three games and losing none while winning twenty-five. They are playing like the machine they were built to be, and have very rarely shown weakness.

I can never say impossible in the Champions League, but I can't see anything but a Bayern victory in this tie. United are anything but united, and even their victories fail to really encourage the idea of a turnaround in fortunes for Moyes. Their victory over Olympiakos was largely due to some individual brilliance from Van Persie and some poor tactics from an inexperienced opposing manager. They will have neither in this tie. Pep Guardiola has inherited some of the best teams and players of this generation, but he has won practically everything and has this Bayern team playing at a stunningly high level. Bayern will dominate both matches in this tie and I would be surprised to see them win the tie by fewer than three goals. They were exposed a bit by Hoffenheim last weekend in a 3-3 draw, but that was the first time they failed to win at home in the league all season, and they were clearly looking ahead to this tie by resting starters. I'm going to be hoping United knock the Bavarians out - it would be a monumental upset. Not hoping too hard though.

Prediction: Manchester United 1 – 5 Bayern Munich (0 – 2 H, 1 – 3 A)

Analyzing the “Big 6”

When Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in 2003, it created what was called the “Big 4” of English football – Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. When Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan purchased Manchester City, the “Big 4” turned into a “Big 3”, but evolved back into a “Big 4”, with City taking Liverpool’s place. This summer, I think we will see the formation of a new “Big 6” for at least the next few years. There was a risk of a return to the “Big 3”, as Arsenal have not looked like title contenders recently, but their spending and the emergence of Tottenham and Liverpool should create a close competition at the top of the Premier League. United, City and Chelsea are on a bit of a higher level than the other three clubs, but I expect it to be very tight at the top.

• Arsenal have been slowly declining since 2009 and have gone eight trophy-less years under Arsene Wenger, but the signing of Mesut Ozil has turned around what has been a dismal transfer policy and reignited the club’s trophy hopes. After years of failed signings and big-money departures with no replacements, Arsenal have finally made a splash in the transfer market. Ozil was expensive, but he is “the best #10 in the world” by Mourinho’s standards, and touted highly by many observers. He was the statement signing they needed.

• Tottenham have continuously tried to break into the Champions League places but have only succeeded in doing so once (although they did come in fourth in 2011-2012). Despite losing Gareth Bale to Real Madrid, Tottenham’s team is arguably better now, as new signings Paulinho, Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen should have a sizeable impact. Roberto Soldado is already having an impact with two goals in his first three Premier League games.

• Liverpool’s signings are providing the best results at the time being, as they sit atop the Premier League with three wins from three. Daniel Sturridge has been brilliant since his arrival from Chelsea, and while I don’t expect his goal-scoring form to continue, he is the type of player who can be a danger to score at any time. Mamadou Sakho was another good signing and the acquisition of Victor Moses on loan could create a dangerous wing partnership with young star Raheem Sterling. Liverpool didn’t hit all of their transfer targets but are certainly stronger than last year’s team that finished seventh. The Reds haven’t finished higher than sixth for the past four seasons and will be desperate to break back into the Champions League places.

With the transfer window now closed, and no real other contenders for a top-six place, I can give a reasonable prediction about each team’s year-end place in the league.

Manchester United

Current Status: Worrying

There’s no one who would like to see United have a Liverpool-esque fallout more than me, but I think many people are hitting the panic button on this team too early. The squad is largely the same as last year’s, which won twenty-eight Premier League games to win the league by eleven points. However, there was always going to be a huge impact when Sir Alex Ferguson decided to retire, and despite David Moyes being a justifiable replacement, the club is going to undergo an inevitable dip. This was already illustrated during the transfer window when United seemed to have a new target to chase every week, and did not acquire a single one until they escaped with Marouane Fellaini (whom they overpaid for). Moyes did manage to keep a hold of Wayne Rooney, and did not lose any other key members of the squad, but it is very concerning that they did not get any of their early targets. Thinking United would fall too far would be naïve; it just does not look promising for an aging team with a manager who is new to the big stage. Their Champions League group is a tricky one as well.

Projection: Third

Manchester City

Current Status: Trending Upwards

Things are looking like they are falling into place this season for Manchester City. Manuel Pellegrini did a great job strengthening the team and they finally don’t have a “Group of Death” in the Champions League. Big money signings Fernandinho and Stevan Jovetic will add to the team’s enormous depth, and Jesus Navas will fit nicely into a wing role. Alvaro Negredo has already scored twice but I don’t see him having too big of an impact, and Martin DeMichelis is old. But getting rid of Carlos Tevez and Kolo Toure will also help the team, although they could have signed another defender. They will have to play Bayern in the group stage, and I warn them to be wary of CSKA, but they should find themselves in the knockout stage of the UCL for the first time this season. City have a deep squad and have finished in the top three in the Premier League the past three seasons, but I expect their possible European run to have an impact on their domestic durability. They are also looking very sloppy in their own third of the field, which Pellegrini needs to fix immediately. City will be in the mix for the whole season, but their strong odds of progressing in the Champions League could actually hurt their domestic season.

Projection: Second

Chelsea

Current Status: Elite

Now before I have to hear anything about being biased, I would ask everyone to take a look at what Chelsea did this offseason. They brought back mutually beloved manager Jose Mourinho, who is unquestionably the best man for the post, while adding Andre Schurrle, Marco Van Ginkel, Willian, and Samuel Eto’o. They also received Kevin De Bruyne back from loan. Mourinho was able to get Victor Moses and Romelu Lukaku out on loan instead of holding them on the bench, while offloading older players Yossi Benayoun and Flourent Malouda. The team had needs at manager, striker, holding midfielder, and attacking midfielder this offseason. All of these needs were addressed. It is arguable that the defense is still a bit weak, but Chelsea have a team built to win trophies. They had the third best defensive record in the Premier League last season, and Mourinho is known for his tactical drilling in that end of the field, so there is no reason to expect worse. There isn’t any coming together needed like City or Tottenham or any major regime change like United – it is simply the reinforcement of the existing blueprint with a manager and players who fit the system. This team can compete with anyone, and the stability Mourinho brings to the volatile club is what gives them the edge in the Premier League this season.

Projection: First

Arsenal

Current Status: Optimistic

For the first time in years, Arsenal fans watched the transfer window end with something to be cheery about. Whatever your rating of Ozil might be, it has to be high, and he not only helps the team on the field, but also put a much needed support under the club’s ailing transfer policy. If the Ozil signing helps Arsenal’s fortunes greatly this season, then top-tier players will be attracted to the club again. This is a sizeable task though – Ozil is an elite player but his position, the No. 10 role, was not a need for the Gunners. They still possess just an above-average goalie in Wojciech Szczesny and a front-line starved for depth. Wenger’s plans to sell Nicklas Bendtner came to a halt this summer when Lukas Podolski and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain picked up injuries, leaving Bendtner as the only forward player behind Olivier Giroud. Giroud has been improving, but has not established himself as a top-level striker yet and has no competition for his place. Gervinho left this summer, and although he will not be missed much, the return of Mathieu Flamini as Arsenal’s only other major signing is hardly inspirational. I commend Arsenal for acquiring Ozil, because without him they had little chance of progressing through their difficult group in the Champions League, or finishing in the top four in England. His impact will only be seen over time, and my fear is he could add to Arsenal’s tendency to dissect teams without scoring goals. It’s going to be tight to secure a Champions League place, but Arsenal fans must be optimistic about Wenger’s rare splash.

Projection: Fourth

Tottenham Hotspur

Current Status:  In Transition

The Gareth Bale saga consumed most of Tottenham’s summer, but I can barely have any sympathy – we all knew he was going to leave and it is largely Daniel Levy’s fault for dragging out the process all summer. No team wants to lose a player like Bale but the exorbitant sum they received for him will make this team better as a whole. I mentioned the big signings above – they also brought in defender Vlad Chiriches, midfielder Etienne Capoue, and midfielder Nacer Chadli to add even more depth. The one sale I don’t understand is Steven Caulker, who Spurs sold to Cardiff. Why sell a 21-year old defender to another Premier League side when you lack the depth in that area? Mysterious to me, and they’d better hope Jan Vertonghen doesn’t go down with an injury. As a whole, this team looks like it could be really good, but it always takes time to put a team together with so many new signings. It will be very tight for Champions League places, but Spurs look like they will fall a little short again. If it begins to come together, this team will bea title contender next season.  

Projection: Fifth

Liverpool

Current Status: Overachieving

Liverpool have struggled for the past four years and are looking at this campaign as a make-or-break one for Brendan Rodgers. It is off to the best possible start, as three 1-0 victories have given them a nice boost to start the season. The signing of Sakho was huge, as was the loan pickup of Aly Cissokho from Valencia. Getting rid of Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing is also a good sign, as those players struggled mightily during their Liverpool careers. I don’t believe this success is sustainable. I like how Liverpool boosted their defense and brought in Simon Mignolet to be their #1 in goal, but I don’t think the midfield play is going to be strong enough to contend with the five sides mentioned above. They were twelve points behind fourth place last year and breaching the top three looks very unlikely. Luis Suarez’s return from suspension should bring a boost to the side, especially if he can partner up with Sturridge. This team’s problem has been finishing chances, so two goal scorers on the field could see the Reds have a breakthrough season. I’m still at the stage where I have to see it to believe it. Liverpool, like Spurs, could wind up in a Champions League spot, but look just a bit weaker than their rivals at this point.

Projection: Sixth

UEFA Champions League Group Stage - Preview

Finally. The Champions League group stage is here. This is one of the strongest fields of recent years - there are very few teams left that will be severely over-matched. Here is a breakdown of each group:

Group A

Participants: FC Porto, Dynamo Kiev, Paris Saint-Germain, Dinamo Zagreb

Analysis: After a major summer overhaul, PSG start European life in a relatively easy group, despite being chosen from Pot 3. On paper, PSG are one of the most talented sides in Europe, and their progress should come to fruition on the continental stage. There is a major gulf in class between the Parisian side and the rest of the group. Porto are their toughest competitors, but they will have a hard time replacing Hulk after his departure to Zenit. Dynamo Kiev are also without their most formidable strike threat after Andriy Shevchenko retired this summer. Porto and Kiev are an interesting matchup - both have a strong history in Europe and are very tough to beat at home. I think Porto can edge the Ukrainians by gaining a draw away and winning at home to qualify. Dinamo Zagreb are hopeless - last year's campaign was a debacle with zero points from six games, including a suspiciously awful 8-1 loss to Lyon in their last game. They can only go up from last year, but it's hard to see them doing more than grabbing a point or two.

Prediction: 1. PSG 2. Porto 3. Dynamo Kiev 4. Dinamo Zagreb

Group B

Participants: Arsenal, Schalke 04, Olympiakos, Montpellier HSC

Analysis: Arsenal find themselves in a very easy group again this year, and I expect the Gunners to breeze through to the knockout stage. This is more about the weakness of the competition rather than Arsenal's strength - but in Santi Cazorla and a healthy Abou Diaby, Arsenal have enough quality in the midfield to control a game against any of these opponents. Schalke will be a difficult test, with the in-form Klaas-Jan Huntelaar leading the lines for the Germans. Schalke have experience in this competition from their semi-final run two years ago and should be expected to progress here. Olympiakos have been tough the last few years, but the loss of Kevin Mirallas (without any replacement) is a killer, and it will be difficult for the Greeks to come closer to the knockout stage than their narrow miss last year. Montpellier have only lost Olivier Giroud (to Arsenal) from last year's title-winning team, but French teams have not fared well in Europe recently, especially ones with little to no experience (ex. Auxerre two years ago). They will struggle against more seasoned opponents.

Prediction: 1. Arsenal 2. Schalke 3. Olympiakos 4. Montpellier

Group C

Participants: AC Milan, Zenit St. Petersburg, Anderlecht, Malaga

Analysis: Zenit were in the headlines this summer when they secured Hulk and Axel Witsel for a fee in the region of 80 million Euros. Hulk will provide more cutting edge up top for a team that struggled to score in the last year's competition and the Belgian will help the team's depth in central midfield. Zenit will be exciting to watch, and they have a great chance to win this group. Milan's late-summer sales of Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to PSG were well-publicized, and are now wide open for criticism. They have dropped two of their first three league games and have struggled to score - two 1-0 home losses to Sampdoria and Atalanta is unacceptable by Milan's standards. The Rossoneri still have enough quality to get through, but it will be much more challenging than previous years. Standing in their way is Malaga, the cash-strapped Spanish club managed by Manuel Pellegrini. Despite having to sell many of their key players, Malaga will be a formidable side on this stage and a tough out. The club have both the talent and spirit to cause the favored teams some trouble. Anderlecht are Belgian champions and will not be pushovers either. There is a strong European tradition and pride at the club as well as quite a bit of experience in the squad. Gillet, Jovanovic, and captain Lucas Biglia all have experience in international fixtures, and the side could make some noise in this group.

Prediction: 1. Zenit 2. AC Milan 3. Malaga 4. Anderlecht
 
Group D

Participants: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Ajax Amsterdam, Borussia Dortmund

Analysis: Group D is clearly the toughest group, with four domestic champions competing, three of which are from the top three ranked leagues in Europe. City and Dortmund both bowed out at the group stage last year, and will have an even tougher task to make the knockout round. Real Madrid look as strong as ever, and after toppling Barcelona in La Liga, it seems like Mourinho's primary objective to win another Champions League crown. It's hard to imagine Madrid going out before the knockout round. Despite their current poor form, I expect Madrid to have a very strong record in this group. On the other end of the spectrum, it's very difficult to see Ajax getting through here. Although Christian Eriksen is rightfully optimistic about his side's chances, the amount of quality in this group will be way too much for the Dutch side. They could pull a few good results through, but any place above third seems very unlikely. That leaves the last place to Dortmund and Man City - and I will select Man City to fall short of the group stage again this year. I believe their focus at heart is beating Man United in the Premier League, and with a group like this, any lapse of focus will be extremely costly. Dortmund have won the Bundesliga two years in a row now and will be more apt to display their style on the continental stage. Having a healthy Mario Gotze as well as adding Marco Reus should boost the side, despite losing Shinji Kagawa. It will be close, as it was with Napoli last year, but I think Man City will come up just short once again.

Prediction: 1. Real Madrid 2. Borussia Dortmund 3. Manchester City 4. Ajax

Group E

Participants: Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus, FC Nordsjaelland

Analysis: The holders are in a difficult group, with an arduous trip to Ukraine coupled with a matchup with Italian champions Juventus, a country where Chelsea have historically struggled. Chelsea have the strongest squad in the group and should find themselves in the knockout round. The squad is full of experience at every position and if the Blues can find a consistent source of goals, it will be easier than many think. Juventus are still in dominant form despite losing manager Antonio Conte to suspension. The momentum from last year's undefeated season in Serie A has continued into this season for the Turin club, which has won its first three fixtures along with the Italian Super Cup. They will be stiff contenders with Chelsea for first place. Shakhtar have competed in the Champions League routinely during the last few years, with one of its greatest victories in its history coming in a 3-2 win at the Nou Camp. However, the side really struggled last year in a relatively soft group, winning just one game, albeit against an APOEL side resting many of its regulars. Shakhtar will be difficult to beat in Ukraine, but will have a difficult time troubling Chelsea or Juventus away from home. FC Nordsjaelland are a complete unknown in this competition. They were surprise Danish champions last year, beating out power club FC Copenhagen, but there are very few recognizable names in their squad. We should not expect much from an unknown and inexperienced side considering the caliber of competition in this group. 

Prediction: 1. Chelsea 2. Juventus 3. Shakhtar 4. FC Nordsjaelland

Group F

Participants: Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov

Analysis: Bayern, last year's losing finalists, have a great draw against Valencia, Lille, and BATE. The Bavarians have been blazing out of the gates in the Bundesliga and are by far the strongest side in this group. Bayern will be in the mix for the final again this year and should navigate through without any bumps. Valencia are the second-strongest side, led by Jonas and Roberto Soldado. The Spanish side have been placing third or fourth in La Liga the last few years, and have the quality to do the same this year. Valencia always seems to find themselves in the knockout stage, with last year's drop down to the Europa League being quite the shock. Lille sold Eden Hazard to Chelsea this summer and have done little to replace him, although they do have talented French internationals Mathieu Debuchy and Marvin Martin in their side. Lille will be a tough side to play but do not figure on making in through this group. BATE are in the group stage again after taking out Ironi Kiryat Shmona in the playoffs. BATE have been playing in Europe consistently and will play a disciplined style - they just do not have nearly enough talent to get through this group. They could produce a shock to one of these sides but it's unlikely to expect much more than one or two positive results for the Belorussians.

Prediction: 1. Bayern 2. Valencia 3. Lille 4. BATE

Group G

Participants: Barcelona, Benfica, Spartak Moscow, Celtic

Analysis: Barcelona are among the favorites again for this year's competition despite the departure of coach Pep Guardiola.They were also handed a straightforward group - none of their three competitors will pose too much of a threat. I don't expect Barcelona to be perfect, but they should have no trouble winning this group. The other three sides in the group do not have much between them. Spartak defeated a good Fener side in the playoffs and look to be the strongest of the three. Russian football has been getting stronger and Moscow is always a difficult place to travel, especially in the winter. Celtic are historically dreadful away from home and will have to rely on their results at Celtic Park. The quality of Scottish football has been in a steep decline, and while Celtic feel they have something to prove, they are the most mistake-prone side of the three. Benfica won their group in last year's edition, but losing Witsel so late will harm a team that already needed to reload a bit. However, there is still plenty of quality and Benfica rarely lose at home. There will be no easy games in this group, but I will take the Russians to get through with Barcelona.

Prediction: 1. Barcelona 2. Spartak Moscow 3. Benfica 4. Celtic

Group H

Participants: Manchester United, Sporting Braga, Galatasaray, CFR Cluj

Analysis: United drew the easiest group of any of the four English clubs in the competition. Last year's group stage was an embarrassment for the Red Devils, as they were outplayed and at times outclassed by Benfica and Basel. This year United will make a point to qualify from this group without question, and although I still don't like their defensive set-up, they should have little trouble doing so. They could get exposed by Braga and Galatasaray, but those squads are both weaker than United's opponents last year, and they should be able to pull out the results. The rest of this group should be very close - again, there isn't much between any of the sides. I'm going with Braga to get through, as they have played well in Europe recently and are emerging as a Portuguese power along side traditionals Porto and Benfica. Galatasaray and Cluj represent federations that have seen better days, as both Romania and Turkey have been littered with major match-fixing scandals in the last decade. However, these sides will be very competitive and the fight for second will be close.

Prediction: 1. Manchester United 2. Braga 3. Galatasaray 4. CFR Cluj