The day is coming. The day I've been eagerly anticipating since Chelsea's 2-2 draw at the Nou Camp is just a day away. It's time to look at the strengths and weaknesses for each side. Since I think the sides are even talent-wise, I'm going to look at some other elements that have an effect on the outcome of the game.
Suspended Players: Advantage: Bayern Munich.
Bayern have Holger Badstuber (CB), Daniel Alaba (LB) and Luiz Gustavo (CDM) suspended, while Chelsea are without captain John Terry (CB), Ramires (RW), Raul Meireles (CM) and Branislav Ivanovic (CB/RB), while CBs David Luiz and Gary Cahill and also concerns with injuries. Bayern should be concerned as they are missing three key defensive players, especially after conceding five times in their Cup final loss to Dortmund. However, Bayern have all of their attacking options and if those players are able stamp their influence on the game, their defense will not be as much of a concern. Offense looks like an even better strategy for Bayern when considering Chelsea are without two of their better defenders, could be without two of their starting backs through injury, as well as Raul Meireles, who was superb in defense against Barcelona. However, the absence of Ramires is likely the most disappointing for Chelsea, as he has been in stunning form and probably was Chelsea's best player in the second half of the season. Solomon Kalou will likely be his replacement, and he has played well since Di Matteo took over, but Ramires' presence will be greatly missed. Advantage to Bayern, despite lacking in defensive options, but for having all of their attacking options available.
Momentum/Psyche: Advantage: Chelsea.
Despite not looking overly convincing in their final two Premier League games, Chelsea are the in-form side and have a clear psychological advantage. Di Matteo did not play his strongest squad in either game, opting to rest his players to save them for this game. They won the FA Cup 2-1 over Liverpool, while Bayern were hammered 5-2 by Dortmund in the DFB-Pokal Final. There also seems to be a kind of aura around Chelsea this year - the 3-0 win over Valencia that won them the group when they looked like they might go out, the improbable 4-1 win over Napoli that got them through the tie 5-4 on aggregate, and of course the aggregate win over Barcelona. Di Matteo has the players believing it's their year, and they have responded throughout the campaign. Bayern have shown flashes of being truly elite, and were particularly impressive in Madrid despite losing the game (while they won the penalty shoot-out). They are certainly in good goal-scoring form but their defense and midfield seem fragile and do not respond as well to deficits as Chelsea. The Blues have a slight advantage because of their revival under RDM.
Venue: Advantage: Bayern Munich.
There have been arguments that having the game in their home stadium would put extra pressure on Bayern, but I think it's a huge advantage, especially when considering this team. First, playing in your own country, and especially your own arena, has to be a huge advantage, as the players will be more comfortable in the setting and will likely have a majority backing. Second, Bayern scored 49 goals in 17 league games this year (almost three a game) while scoring 28 goals in 17 games on the road (slightly more than 1.5 a game). The results have not been there away from home. Third, Bayern have not won a trophy this season, so their fan base will be that much more desperate to win one, especially when it's the crown jewel of them all. No extra pressure on the Bavarians. Huge advantage for Bayern here.
Verdict:
When looking at the players on the field, I believe the game is dead even. Mario Gomez and Didier Drogba are comparable forwards, Bayern have an advantage on the wings with Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, but Chelsea have a better central midfield, while on defense, both sides are in tatters. Both goalies are comparable too, as Petr Cech and Manuel Neuer are both top-five goalkeepers in the world with plenty of experience at the club and national level. Finals are typically low-scoring and nervy encounters, but the lack of defensive depth for both sides should make for some goals. As Warren Barton of Fox described, Chelsea's run is all about "character." They have had the greatest will this year and will certainly give their all in the final, regardless of who is on the pitch. I think both sides will score but I'm backing my Blues to take home their first Champions League trophy.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 1-3 Chelsea
No comments:
Post a Comment