UEFA Champions League 1st Leg Recap

Results

Arsenal 0-2 Bayern Munich
Manchester City 0-2 Barcelona
AC Milan 0-1 Atletico Madrid
Bayer Leverkusen 0-4 PSG
Zenit St. Petersburg 2-4 Borussia Dortmund
Olympiakos 2-0 Manchester United
Galatasaray 1-1 Chelsea
Schalke 1-6 Real Madrid

The Arsenal - Bayern match was an interesting one, featuring two tamely struck penalties (neither of which went in) as well as a red card to Arsenal goalie Wojciech Szczesny. The best part of it was the calls were all correct, and despite Arsenal fans' booing of Arjen Robben throughout the second half, they must feel it was a sending off. Arsenal are up against it again heading to Munich, and with Mesut Ozil seeming out of sorts, and the team enduring another February of troubles, who knows which Arsenal team shows up. I have to say I did not expect any kind of good performance last year when they headed to Munich down 3-1, but they put in a spirited performance and only lost on away goals. However, that is Arsenal's problem - they "play well" or "play nice football" but they don't win anything. Arsene Wenger is without a doubt one of the best coaches in Premier League history, but again I must question his decisions in big matches. He plays Yaya Sanogo in his second start for the club over Olivier Giroud, who has scored 12 goals in the Premier League this season - good for fifth in the league. How can you not go with the experience? Sanogo did not play badly, but Wenger made another decision that left him open for questioning, and again it did not pan out. As for the Ozil penalty, that is usually more up to the players than the manager, but I would not have had a German take a penalty against Neuer. Santi Cazorla would have been my choice. I know Arteta was unavailable and he is their normal penalty-taker, but that was a decision that really hurt Arsenal.

City also had a man sent off but really did nothing against Barcelona. Maybe having Aguero back will help them in Spain but it's going to be very difficult. Barca are specialists in drawing teams out and then destroying them with a quick move. City are probably going to need three, or maybe even four to get through. I don't get why DeMichelis is playing over Lescott. Messi is going to give any defender troubles but having a central defender as slow as DeMichelis was asking for disaster. The guy has always been mistake-prone. City have looked very poor at the back at points during this season, and that just does not work in the Champions League.

PSG hammered Bayer Leverkusen, as expected. It's really pathetic what Bayern Munich have reduced the German league to. Schalke were completely smashed as well. I'd love to give Real more credit, as they are surely contenders for the trophy, but Schalke were really, really poor. There was so much space at the back. It looked like a cup game between a first-division side and a third-division one. Real were absolutely clinical though - this was the second time they have scored six goals in just four away matches in Europe this season. At least Dortmund can still put in a good performance, although Zenit were predictably awful. Yuck.

As for Man United, it's just another day at the office. Being a Chelsea supporter, I am certainly sympathetic to giving a manager some time, but these kind of pathetic performances are what gets a manager fired. First of all, this particularly abject performance was the poorest I've seen from United this season. Tom Cleverley and Chris Smalling don't deserve to be wearing the shirt after their respective performances. They just plain sucked. The whole team was full of unforced, sloppy errors and they didn't really build much of anything over the course of the game. United reminds me of a worse version of Chelsea from two years ago - and the commonplace is a coach who is in over his head. Roberto DiMatteo was lucky, and the team came through with a wild and fortunate Champions League crown - David Moyes is not so lucky, and he will surely not be around much longer if this trend continues. I blame this loss more on the players, but it doesn't change how Moyes sets up this team. He has taken a team that has played through the middle for years and tried to turn it into a West Ham-like long-ball crossing team. It's ridiculous. For me, the number one thing for a manager is knowing your players, and Moyes clearly has no clue that he hasn't got a huge center forward out there. Van Persie is disgusted and rightfully so (though he should learn how to use his right foot.) United were nervous, tentative, and never gave their opponent any trouble despite having the superior talent and experience.

All that being said, Olympiakos played very well. Given the premium quality that will be waiting in the next round, it's hard to see Olympiakos going much further - but they were solid from beginning to end. They needed to keep a clean sheet and did, and now have placed all of the pressure on their opponents for the return leg. Joel Campbell supplied a wonderful strike to set the tone for the second half, and they showed better on-the-ball awareness than United did. They play in a weak league and rack up a bunch of meaningless wins, but Olympiakos play with a load of confidence. The atmosphere was electric, and this was far less of a shock than the general media suggested. Stay tuned here - there is a long way to go in this tie, but Olympiakos were willing to be aggressive and it paid off, something that will help them as their run continues.

As for Chelsea, they were okay, but nothing special. At the very least, they're ahead in the tie. Chelsea dominated the first half and could have been out of sight, but Gala really took the game to them in the second half and earned a deserved draw. Gala even had a few chances to take the lead heading to England, but that would have been harsh. I don't disagree with Jose Mourinho often - but I would have liked to see Schurrle stay on longer. I understand taking a slim lead to the Bridge, and having Mikel on to stabilize the midfield allowed them to achieve that, but I feel that in Europe you have to take the initiative when you can, and if Chelsea could have nabbed a second goal, Gala would have to score twice in Chelsea's fortress. They had quite a bit of space to work with throughout the game, and their pace was clearly giving Gala problems. Even if they had conceded again and been down 2-1, they would have felt good about going through. I just would have tried to put some more pressure on Gala. Now it's all to play for in London, but Jose has the situation he wants - a clean sheet and his team are through.

UEFA Champions League Round of 16 - Preview

This is the part of the season that really separates the men from the boys. There are clear favorites at this stage, but you can make a case for nine or ten teams finding their way to the final. Bayern must be seen as favorites, but all of this season's group winners are very good teams. The marquee matchup is between Manchester City and Barcelona. These are two of the finest attacking squads in Europe but it may come down defense and injuries to see who goes through. Arsenal and Bayern Munich play again after last year’s 3-3 draw, with Bayern advancing on away goals and ultimately winning the competition. Here is a preview of all eight matchups:

Manchester City – Barcelona

Manchester City and Barcelona are now household names in world football. Both have hovered around the top spot in their domestic table this year, and both possess devastating attacking talent. Lionel Messi and Neymar have been household names for years, especially on their home continent of South America. The likes of Sergio Aguero and Alvaro Negredo are beginning to catch similar attention across the world. City are on pace for a record-breaking goals tally in the Premier League, despite a number of injuries, while Barcelona are annually ranked first or second in goals in La Liga. So this tie is set for a load of goals, right?

Wrong. This is a two-legged European knockout, and teams are very resistant to opening the play up like they do at home. I do expect to see goals, but expectations should be tempered. If Aguero misses one or both legs, it will force Manuel Pelligrini to play differently - his side are not nearly as potent without Aguero. He is certainly out for the first leg. Barcelona have been playing the same way for years, but last year they were exposed in a humiliating way by Bayern Munich. After adding Neymar, Barca are back to being one of the world’s most feared sides, but their away form is still shaky abroad. Their aggregate score in three group games away from home is just 3 – 3, with one win, one draw, and one loss. Meanwhile, Barcelona scored 13 goals in three wins at home. With Aguero sitting out, I would consider Barcelona to be a strong favorite. I can see City squeaking out a win at home – their form at the Etihad has been nearly unblemished. Regardless, I’m going to take Barcelona to advance to the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Manchester City 3 – 5 Barcelona (2 – 1 H, 1 – 4 A)

Olympiacos – Manchester United

This is one of the most intriguing ties of the round, because you could see it going a lot of ways. Manchester United are struggling, but they have always seemed to find their way out when it seems they are most doomed. This season has been a different story so far – one devastating loss follows another, and United are in serious danger of missing next year’s Champion’s League. Olympiacos are somewhat of an unknown entity. The Greek league is one-horse race, and there isn’t much other quality in the league other than Olympiacos. They performed well in the group, knocking out a good Benfica side. They did look overmatched against PSG, but the team can certainly compete with some of the better ones in Europe.

United have been battered by injuries this season, and while this year was always going to be one of transition after the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson, their fans expected better, and for good reason. United’s struggles are due to both player underperformance and poor management decisions. The issue with projecting their future performance is that the potential is there for the side that won last year’s Premier League to reemerge. The sale of Kostas Mitroglou to Fulham will hurt Olympiacos. The Greeks have long been known for their defense, but he was the focal point of an attacking unit that could have caused Manchester United quite a bit of problems. Without him, United will face less pressure, which is precisely the way they would like it. It will be difficult to come out of Greece with the lead, but United are strong candidates for the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Olympiacos 2 – 4 Manchester United (1 – 1 H, 1 – 3 A)

AC Milan – Atletico Madrid

This matchup features two teams moving in different directions. AC Milan are in full-on rebuilding mode, adding new coach Clarence Seedorf and preaching a policy of training through the youth system. It makes their decision to retain some of their older players, as well as bring in the aging Michael Essien, all the more puzzling, but Milan, who sit in ninth place, are in need of a major overhaul. On the other hand, Atletico are flying high in La Liga, currently top of the league with Real and Barca. The future of several of their players remains up in the air, but this is nothing new for a club that has been poached for talent over the past decade. This team is very, very good and does not make many mistakes. A recent home loss to Almeria led to questions about the squad’s durability, but their brief three-game losing streak, which included two cup losses to Real, seems to be just a slight hiccup.

It’s hard to count out any squad AC Milan puts on the field. This team has quite a bit of talent, and as with any team, there is always the chance that they can make things click. They haven’t been able to all season, as constant speculation about the club’s big players, as well as the departure of Massimiliano Allegri, have made it one to forget. The club's European pedigree makes it so you can't completely count them out, but they are going to be pressured constantly. Atletico have displayed ruthless form in La Liga and the Champions League, and I expect nothing to change here. Maybe Milan will fool us into thinking they can contend during the first leg, but Atletico should find themselves heading through.

Prediction: AC Milan 1 – 5 Atletico Madrid (1 – 2 H, 0 – 3 A)

Bayer Leverkusen – Paris Saint-Germain

There isn’t too much to say about this matchup other than that it will be a very difficult one for Bayer Leverkusen. There is a huge dropoff between Bayern, Dortmund, and the rest of the Bundesliga, even if it doesn't display in the league standings. Bayer is a good team, and they can certainly cause PSG some issues in Germany, but PSG will be heavy favorites to advance. Loaded with attacking talent, PSG are top of Ligue 1, five points ahead of Monaco. Their only loss in the group stage was their final game against Benfica, which was meaningless to them. This tie could be over very quickly – Bayer have not played well against big sides in this competition in recent years and have endured some very heavy defeats. PSG doesn’t always show its superiority on the final scoreline, but I would expect them to do so here. It would be shocking not to see the French side in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen 2 – 6 Paris Saint-Germain (1 – 2 H, 1 – 4 A)

Galatasaray – Chelsea

This tie would be more suited for an off-season friendly than a crucial Champions League knockout. Didier Drogba makes his return to Stamford Bridge in the second leg with Gala as his new club knocked out Juventus to reach this stage. If you gave Chelsea the choice, they would have selected a matchup with the Turks, as Juve stand top of Serie A and gave the Blues fits last year. Chelsea won four of their six games in the group, but lost two puzzling games to FC Basel, whom they acquired Mohamed Salah from last month.

Turkey is never a fun place for any team to travel, and this Galatasaray team has players with Champions League experience. However, they struggled quite a bit against Real Madrid, and despite beating Juventus 1-0, they advanced through the group with just seven points and a minus-6 goal differential. If there’s anything a Jose Mourinho-Chelsea team knows, it’s how to grind out results. This away fixture will be one of them, and I don’t expect many goals in this tie overall. Chelsea would be surprised to see their European season end so early, and after navigating two tight games they should find themselves in the next round.

Prediction: Galatasaray 1– 3 Chelsea (0 – 1 H, 1 – 2 A)

Schalke 04 – Real Madrid

Perhaps the most lobsided draw of the round of 16, German side Schalke face Real Madrid as significant underdogs. Schalke star Julian Draxler was the subject of transfer speculation throughout the month of January, and it looks like he could be headed for an exit this summer. Schalke are in a respectable fourth place in the Bundesliga, but with an injury to Draxler, it’s hard to see them overcoming this elite Real side. Madrid are tied with Atletico and Barcelona (they trail Barca on goal difference) in La Liga, but possess some of the world’s best talent, led by Cristiano Ronaldo. The Ballon D’Or winner has been relatively quiet lately, which by his standards is the absence of constant headlines.

Schalke have been a good side for the last few years but have shown themselves incapable of really competing with the top sides on the big stage. Leverkusen have had the same problem. Whereas Bayern and Dortmund have showcased a higher level of play throughout the last three years, Schalke has been left behind, in somewhat of a shadow. Real have really turned it on in the last few weeks, making up a deficit in La Liga to affirm a lengthy title push. Real should crush Schalke to advance.

Prediction: Schalke 2 – 7 Real Madrid (1 – 3 H, 1 – 4 A)

Zenit St. Petersburg – Borussia Dortmund

Zenit accumulated the fewest points of any of the teams in the round of sixteen, gaining just six points in the six games, with a minus-4 goal differential. In a group featuring Atletico Madrid, FC Porto, and Austria Vienna, Zenit were thoroughly unimpressive – they scored just five goals, failed to win a game at home and progressed despite getting hammered 4-1 by group stage minnows Vienna. Dortmund came from a third-placed position after four matches to win the group. We have seen Dortmund’s credentials displayed proudly the past few years, and despite the negativity around the club regarding outgoing transfers, they have the ability to reach the final for the second consecutive year.

If it wasn’t outlined clearly enough above, these two teams are not close in terms of ability. While Russia is not an easy place to travel, Dortmund should have no trouble advancing through this tie. Zenit haven’t shown anything to suggest they would defeat any of the other teams in this stage, not to mention one of the best ones in Dortmund. Dortmund has not been as strong this season as the last three, but with the speculation surrounding Lewandowski over, they can simply get on with their season. It will be very difficult for Zenit to keep this tie close.

Prediction: Zenit St. Petersburg 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund (1 – 2 H, 0 – 2 A)

Arsenal – Bayern Munich

In a rematch from last season’s knockout round, Arsenal and Bayern Munich meet again. Arsenal are at the true testing point of their season. February has annually been a month of disappointment for the club, but this year they have their best-equipped squad for quite some time. Mesut Ozil has been well worth his transfer fee this summer, but his as well as the squad’s form has dipped over the last few weeks. Arsenal will need to display their early season creativity in order to break through Bayern. Bayern have been dominating the Bundesliga and have placed a 16-point cushion between themselves and the rest of the league. With world-class talent and depth at every position, Bayern are favorites to retain their title.

I think Arsenal are better than they were last year, and I think Bayern are worse. I don’t see Bayern being tested on a weekly basis in Germany like Arsenal are in the Premier League. Bayern have monopolized the Bundesliga to the point where it isn’t really worth watching. While that is a tribute to their own greatness, it is also due to their imperialistic transfer policy within the league. The other teams just can’t hold onto their players. In England, Arsenal are deadlocked in a four-way race for the title, where six points separate the sides. I think they are as well-positioned as ever to go through here. But I don’t think they will. Arsenal haven’t gotten over the hump against other big clubs yet, and until they do so, it’s hard to back them to knock out the trophy holders. They certainly won’t be intimidated, and came very close to knocking Bayern out last year, and will likely come up just short again.

Prediction: Arsenal 3 – 4 Bayern Munich (2 – 2 H, 1 – 2 A)