Manchester City –
Barcelona
Manchester City and Barcelona are now household names in
world football. Both have hovered around the top spot in their domestic table
this year, and both possess devastating attacking talent. Lionel Messi and
Neymar have been household names for years, especially on their home continent
of South America. The likes of Sergio Aguero and Alvaro Negredo are beginning
to catch similar attention across the world. City are on pace for a record-breaking goals tally
in the Premier League, despite a number of injuries, while Barcelona are annually
ranked first or second in goals in La Liga. So this tie is set for a load of
goals, right?
Wrong. This is a two-legged European knockout, and teams are
very resistant to opening the play up like they do at home. I do expect to see
goals, but expectations should be tempered. If Aguero misses one or both legs,
it will force Manuel Pelligrini to play differently - his side are not nearly
as potent without Aguero. He is certainly out for the first leg. Barcelona have
been playing the same way for years, but last year they were exposed in a
humiliating way by Bayern Munich. After adding Neymar, Barca are back to being
one of the world’s most feared sides, but their away form is still shaky
abroad. Their aggregate score in three group games away from home is just 3 –
3, with one win, one draw, and one loss. Meanwhile, Barcelona scored 13 goals
in three wins at home. With Aguero sitting out, I would consider Barcelona to
be a strong favorite. I can see City squeaking out a win at home – their form
at the Etihad has been nearly unblemished. Regardless, I’m going to take
Barcelona to advance to the quarterfinals.
Prediction:
Manchester City 3 – 5 Barcelona (2 – 1 H, 1 – 4 A)
Olympiacos –
Manchester United
This is one of the most intriguing ties of the round,
because you could see it going a lot of ways. Manchester United are struggling,
but they have always seemed to find their way out when it seems they are most
doomed. This season has been a different story so far – one devastating loss
follows another, and United are in serious danger of missing next year’s
Champion’s League. Olympiacos are somewhat of an unknown entity. The Greek
league is one-horse race, and there isn’t much other quality in the league
other than Olympiacos. They performed well in the group, knocking out a good
Benfica side. They did look overmatched against PSG, but the team can certainly
compete with some of the better ones in Europe.
United have been battered by injuries this season, and while
this year was always going to be one of transition after the retirement of Sir
Alex Ferguson, their fans expected better, and for good reason. United’s
struggles are due to both player underperformance and poor management
decisions. The issue with projecting their future performance is that the
potential is there for the side that won last year’s Premier League to
reemerge. The sale of Kostas Mitroglou to Fulham will hurt Olympiacos. The
Greeks have long been known for their defense, but he was the focal point of an
attacking unit that could have caused Manchester United quite a bit of
problems. Without him, United will face less pressure, which is precisely the
way they would like it. It will be difficult to come out of Greece with the
lead, but United are strong candidates for the quarterfinals.
Prediction:
Olympiacos 2 – 4 Manchester United (1 – 1 H, 1 – 3 A)
AC Milan – Atletico
Madrid
This matchup features two teams moving in different directions.
AC Milan are in full-on rebuilding mode, adding new coach Clarence Seedorf and
preaching a policy of training through the youth system. It makes their
decision to retain some of their older players, as well as bring in the aging
Michael Essien, all the more puzzling, but Milan, who sit in ninth place, are
in need of a major overhaul. On the other hand, Atletico are flying high in La
Liga, currently top of the league with Real and Barca. The future of several of
their players remains up in the air, but this is nothing new for a club that
has been poached for talent over the past decade. This team is very, very good
and does not make many mistakes. A recent home loss to Almeria led to questions
about the squad’s durability, but their brief three-game losing streak, which
included two cup losses to Real, seems to be just a slight hiccup.
It’s hard to count out any squad AC Milan puts on the field.
This team has quite a bit of talent, and as with any team, there is always the
chance that they can make things click. They haven’t been able to all season,
as constant speculation about the club’s big players, as well as the departure
of Massimiliano Allegri, have made it one to forget. The club's European pedigree makes it so you can't completely count them out, but they are going to be pressured constantly. Atletico have displayed
ruthless form in La Liga and the Champions League, and I expect nothing to
change here. Maybe Milan will fool us into thinking they can contend during the
first leg, but Atletico should find themselves heading through.
Prediction: AC
Milan 1 – 5 Atletico Madrid (1 – 2
H, 0 – 3 A)
Bayer Leverkusen –
Paris Saint-Germain
There isn’t too much to say about this matchup other than
that it will be a very difficult one for Bayer Leverkusen. There is a huge
dropoff between Bayern, Dortmund, and the rest of the Bundesliga, even if it doesn't display in the league standings. Bayer is a
good team, and they can certainly cause PSG some issues in Germany, but PSG
will be heavy favorites to advance. Loaded with attacking talent, PSG are top
of Ligue 1, five points ahead of Monaco. Their only loss in the group stage was
their final game against Benfica, which was meaningless to them. This tie could
be over very quickly – Bayer have not played well against big sides in this
competition in recent years and have endured some very heavy defeats. PSG doesn’t
always show its superiority on the final scoreline, but I would expect them to
do so here. It would be shocking not to see the French side in the
quarterfinals.
Prediction: Bayer
Leverkusen 2 – 6 Paris Saint-Germain (1 – 2
H, 1 – 4 A)
Galatasaray – Chelsea
This tie would be more suited for an off-season friendly
than a crucial Champions League knockout. Didier Drogba makes his return to
Stamford Bridge in the second leg with Gala as his new club knocked out
Juventus to reach this stage. If you gave Chelsea the choice, they would have
selected a matchup with the Turks, as Juve stand top of Serie A and gave the
Blues fits last year. Chelsea won four of their six games in the group, but
lost two puzzling games to FC Basel, whom they acquired Mohamed Salah from last
month.
Turkey is never a fun place for any team to travel, and this
Galatasaray team has players with Champions League experience. However, they
struggled quite a bit against Real Madrid, and despite beating Juventus 1-0,
they advanced through the group with just seven points and a minus-6 goal
differential. If there’s anything a Jose Mourinho-Chelsea team knows, it’s how
to grind out results. This away fixture will be one of them, and I don’t expect
many goals in this tie overall. Chelsea would be surprised to see their
European season end so early, and after navigating two tight games they should
find themselves in the next round.
Prediction:
Galatasaray 1– 3 Chelsea (0 – 1 H, 1 – 2 A)
Schalke 04 – Real
Madrid
Perhaps the most lobsided draw of the round of 16, German
side Schalke face Real Madrid as significant underdogs. Schalke star Julian
Draxler was the subject of transfer speculation throughout the month of
January, and it looks like he could be headed for an exit this summer. Schalke
are in a respectable fourth place in the Bundesliga, but with an injury to
Draxler, it’s hard to see them overcoming this elite Real side. Madrid are tied
with Atletico and Barcelona (they trail Barca on goal difference) in La Liga,
but possess some of the world’s best talent, led by Cristiano Ronaldo. The
Ballon D’Or winner has been relatively quiet lately, which by his standards is
the absence of constant headlines.
Schalke have been a good side for the last few years but
have shown themselves incapable of really competing with the top sides on the
big stage. Leverkusen have had the same problem. Whereas Bayern and Dortmund
have showcased a higher level of play throughout the last three years, Schalke
has been left behind, in somewhat of a shadow. Real have really turned it on in
the last few weeks, making up a deficit in La Liga to affirm a lengthy title
push. Real should crush Schalke to advance.
Prediction:
Schalke 2 – 7 Real Madrid (1 – 3 H, 1
– 4 A)
Zenit St. Petersburg
– Borussia Dortmund
Zenit accumulated the fewest points of any of the teams in
the round of sixteen, gaining just six points in the six games, with a minus-4
goal differential. In a group featuring Atletico Madrid, FC Porto, and Austria
Vienna, Zenit were thoroughly unimpressive – they scored just five goals,
failed to win a game at home and progressed despite getting hammered 4-1 by
group stage minnows Vienna. Dortmund came from a third-placed position after
four matches to win the group. We have seen Dortmund’s credentials displayed
proudly the past few years, and despite the negativity around the club
regarding outgoing transfers, they have the ability to reach the final for the second
consecutive year.
If it wasn’t outlined clearly enough above, these two teams
are not close in terms of ability. While Russia is not an easy place to travel,
Dortmund should have no trouble advancing through this tie. Zenit haven’t shown
anything to suggest they would defeat any of the other teams in this stage, not
to mention one of the best ones in Dortmund. Dortmund has not been as strong
this season as the last three, but with the speculation surrounding Lewandowski
over, they can simply get on with their season. It will be very difficult for
Zenit to keep this tie close.
Prediction: Zenit
St. Petersburg 1 – 4 Borussia Dortmund (1 – 2 H, 0 – 2 A)
Arsenal – Bayern
Munich
In a rematch from last season’s knockout round, Arsenal and
Bayern Munich meet again. Arsenal are at the true testing point of their
season. February has annually been a month of disappointment for the club, but this year
they have their best-equipped squad for quite some time. Mesut Ozil has been well
worth his transfer fee this summer, but his as well as the squad’s form has
dipped over the last few weeks. Arsenal will need to display their early season
creativity in order to break through Bayern. Bayern have been dominating the
Bundesliga and have placed a 16-point cushion between themselves and the rest
of the league. With world-class talent and depth at every position, Bayern are
favorites to retain their title.
I think Arsenal are better than they were last year, and I
think Bayern are worse. I don’t see Bayern being tested on a weekly basis in
Germany like Arsenal are in the Premier League. Bayern have monopolized the
Bundesliga to the point where it isn’t really worth watching. While that is a
tribute to their own greatness, it is also due to their imperialistic transfer
policy within the league. The other teams just can’t hold onto their players.
In England, Arsenal are deadlocked in a four-way race for the title, where six
points separate the sides. I think they are as well-positioned as ever to go
through here. But I don’t think they will. Arsenal haven’t gotten over the hump
against other big clubs yet, and until they do so, it’s hard to back them to
knock out the trophy holders. They certainly won’t be intimidated, and came
very close to knocking Bayern out last year, and will likely come up just short
again.
Prediction: Arsenal 3 –
4 Bayern Munich (2 – 2 H, 1 – 2 A)
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