Friday, August 15, 2014

Premier League Preview

Manchester City were last season’s champions, which was expected throughout but required some slip ups, both literally and figuratively, from Liverpool to happen. Chelsea was close but just didn't have that cutting edge. There are seven contenders for this year’s title. Here is how I rank them:

Chelsea has the best team on paper. They have an experienced tactician now saddled with the team that he wants. The only thing in the balance is to see if Jose Mourinho still has his magic touch and is able to put the pieces together into one of his championship units. They are strong in every position – they even have two of the top goalkeepers in the world. Signings Filipe Luis, Diego Costa and Cesc Fabregas fill the team’s voids from last season. Nemanja Matic will be eligible in the Champions League and will anchor the midfield with Fabregas and Marco Van Ginkel. The only question is their ability to mesh together – sometimes Chelsea would look very discombobulated and out-of-sync, especially against weak opposition. The Costa addition should help address the lack of goals from the forward position, and although the sale of Romelu Lukaku could wind up hurting the club in the long run, Chelsea looks well-rounded and deep. An injury to Costa or Matic would leave Chelsea the most exposed, but there are so many talented attacking players in the side to fill the void. If the squad is able to mesh, Chelsea will dominate the league.

Arsenal finally ended their trophy drought with last year’s FA Cup title, and followed it up with another victory in the Community Shield against Manchester City. They will have their issues in defense but their attacking options can cause anyone problems with both pace and finesse. Alexis Sanchez was the big signing, but Yaya Sanogo will be a key player for Arsenal. If he can emerge into a Premier League level striker, Arsenal will contend for the title. If he cannot, there will be games where Arsenal are missing that little extra firepower to take the title.
Defensively they have plenty of questions. The departure of Thomas Vermaelen means that Arsene Wenger has enough confidence in Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker to carry the squad. New captain Mikel Arteta will have to have one of his best seasons. At age 33, his best years could be behind him, but perhaps this could be the least asked of him, considering the talent surrounding him on the field. Arsenal haven’t been in a title race for years – this squad is finally close to the caliber needed to endure the long season. I expect good things from Arsenal, but they will need to play much better against the top teams in the league – an area where they were beaten heavily on multiple occasions last term.

Manchester City are the defending champions, and have retained the core of last year’s team. David Silva, one of their best players, has committed to the club long-term, signing a new five-year deal. City were fortunate to take last season’s trophy, but they have one of the top squads on the continent, and owners who certainly aren’t afraid to spend. City will look to be ambitious in Europe as well - their transition from a rising, rich club to an established superpower is finally complete. After City won their first title three years ago, there was a noticeable drop off during the following season. Their offensive weapons are plentiful and probably the best in the league, but despite signings of Bacary Sagna and Fernando to help the defense and holding midfield, I see their defense as a weak spot. Joe Hart has failed to convince during his years as City's #1 in goal, and Willy Caballero was terrible against Arsenal. City will score a ton of goals and should be right in the thick of it, but without someone stepping up in the defensive third, they will drop too many points.

Liverpool were last season’s surprise story. Brendan Rodgers has put together a very complete squad but lost his top player and goalscorer, Luis Suarez, to Barcelona. While the embattled Suarez’s departure will certainly help Liverpool off the field, his absence will be felt on it, and with no viable replacement signed this offseason, Liverpool will struggle to replicate their second-place finish. Dejan Lovren was a big signing, helping what was a beleaguered defense last season, but other signings, including two others from Southampton, will have less of an impact. I like the prospects of Adam Lallana but I don’t really see how he fits into the team. Liverpool will have a strong midfield but I still see weaknesses in defense and an attacked centered around Daniel Sturridge. He had a great season last year and has proven himself with the Reds, but overreliance on Sturridge, who was very erratic in his Chelsea days and is now without his strike partner, could be costly. Liverpool shouldn’t experience a drastic dropout, but I see a battle for a top-four place.Tottenham learned that losing your best player and replacing him with a few good ones usually doesn't work.

Manchester United are a popular bounce back candidate under new coach Louis Van Gaal. United have been impressive in the preseason, but I don’t see them reaching the top 4 this year. David Moyes mismanaged the club and was a major factor in the rapid descent of the club, but the players are not good enough and there weren’t enough big signings to overhaul the squad. The team that won the title two years ago was far too reliant on currently injured Dutchman Robin Van Persie, and there are a number of unproven players that Van Gaal will be forced to give a chance. He did a fantastic job with Holland, taking a team of youngsters to a third place finish in Brazil this summer, but the league season is a long grind, not a short sprint. Van Gaal will help develop some of the young talent and can certainly stop the bleeding from last year, but a quick jump back into the top four looks unlikely to me.

Everton’s signing of Romelu Lukaku completely changes the outlook on the season. Without Lukaku, they were without a bona fide striker and one of their top players from last season. With him, they should continue to be a dangerous side. Roberto Martinez has proven himself to be one of the best managers in the Premier League, and with Everton actually buying players after years of catching up with debt, a top four place is hardly out of the question. Everton has always been a show-me squad; I'm not going to predict them to finish in the top four until I see it. They play a very attractive style and their matches with Liverpool should be very intense, but I don't see the depth to crack the Champions League places. It should be another good campaign from Everton, and Martinez will continue building this squad for the future.

Tottenham took a huge step backwards last season. It began with Andre Villas-Boas, ended with Tim Sherwood, and was underwhelming throughout. Gareth Bale’s move to Real Madrid gave Daniel Levy a massive paycheck to spend on new players, which he did – but very few shone during the rocky season. Eric Lamela was the biggest underperformer, with his move from Roma a complete flop amid talks of him leaving the club after just one year. Mauricio Pochettino proved a success at Southampton and he could be the right man in North London. Spurs could prove to be very good this year but they don’t stack up well against the teams above them. They have more rebuilding to do and have had the least success in the transfer market. It will be interesting to see if Pochettino can end the club’s disappointing run, or if the new players will continue to struggle. Spurs and Everton are both very good sides, but the top three teams are so strong that it's going to be difficult to take a European place.

The best team defensively in any sport is often the one who wins. Chelsea had the best defensive record last season and their defense could be even better this season. I just see Arsenal and City dropping points because of their potential defensive issues. Regardless, it should be a tight race and I'm looking forward to the season starting this weekend.

Projected Top 7:

1)      Chelsea
2)      Arsenal
3)      Manchester City
4)      Liverpool
5)      Manchester United
6)      Everton
7)      Tottenham
Trivia: Who is the highest scoring active player in the English Premier League?

Last answer: Brazil and Italy. Brazil won both finals, in 1970 and 1994.