Group A
Atletico showed in the Spanish Super Cup that despite losing
a number of players over the summer transfer window, they were going to
continue to play at an elite level. Mario Mandzukic was a huge signing, and one
that flew completely under the radar in a summer where James Rodriguez, Angel
Di Maria and Falcao dominated headlines. Mandzukic is a great player and fits
well into Diego Simeone’s team with both power and pace. The signing of Antoine
Griezmann was also critical – he really shined at Real Sociedad and they only
had to pay around 30 million Euros for the 23-year old. Atletico is the
strongest team in this group, and I expect them to build upon the success they
had last year.
Juventus is a bit of a mystery to me. They were terrible
last year in a group that they should have progressed from, losing out to
Galatasaray 1-0 on the final match day. Keeping Arturo Vidal was essential for
the team, and on paper, this team is one of the best in Europe. I’m only skeptical
because of how weak the Italian league has become over the last five years,
along with their poor performance last year. Coach Antonio Conte has also moved
on to coach the Italian national team. Juventus shouldn’t have to sweat this
group out like last year, but they must prove themselves at this stage if they
want to set up a long run.
Olympiakos and Malmo round out the group of four domestic
champions – Olympiakos easily captured another Greek title, while Malmo
captured their first championship since 2010, beating AIK by five points.
Olympiakos have consistently mixed in around second and third place in the
group stage and this year should be no different. I don’t think they will make
it through because of how good Atletico and Juventus are, and the sale of
Kostas Manolas to Roma leaves a huge whole in the center of the Greeks’
defense. They will compete, surely, but going through will be difficult. Malmo
are making their maiden appearance in the Champions League and are the first
Swedish team to qualify since AIK in 1999. I don’t give Malmo any type of
minnows’ chance here – they do have former Werder Bremen star Markus Rosenberg
leading their ranks – but anything more than a point or two would be surprising
for the Swedes.
1) Atletico Madrid
2) Juventus
3) Olympiakos
4) Malmo FF
Group B
The holders of the trophy are recreating history.
Unfortunately, it’s the part of their history that was coupled with internal tension
and a lack of success. After Jose Mourinho built a team in Madrid, and Carlo
Ancelotti pushed the right tactical buttons, Real Madrid won the Champions
League in a thrilling final against city rivals Atletico. Instead of continuing
this route of success, Real have gone back to their galacticos days, selling Xabi Alonso and Angel Di Maria, two of the
most important pieces of last year’s team, while buying James Rodriguez for an
exorbitant fee, even though he doesn’t fit in tactically. Real isn’t just a
footballing club, it’s a worldwide showpiece; James was surely bought not only
for his ability, but for his attraction in the World Cup, allowing Madrid to
increase their shirt sales and brand exposure. I get that move, but I don’t get
the sale of Alonso. Toni Kroos was brought in to presumably play the same
position, but why sell one of the players who has been at the center of the
club’s success? Real should win this group and will navigate through sides who
are not up to this level, but I think they will have trouble against Liverpool
and the better teams later in the competition, when the side staring across
from them knows how to play as a team. They are a mess right now and Ancelotti has very little time to right the ship.
Liverpool have completed their recovery and are finally back
in the Champions League. Luis Suarez’s sale to Barcelona leaves a hole in the
front that Mario Balotelli could fill, but only time will tell. I don’t like
the purchase of Balotelli. He was cheap, and he is a gamble, but Liverpool have
a sense of pride and club unity that Balotelli will never have in his career.
He could be a great success for the Reds, and his talent is right there with
the top strikers in the world. Mario has never proven he can showcase that
ability on a consistent basis, or without the occasional moment of madness.
Liverpool has a good team but a shaky defense, and until that defense improves,
they will be a step below the top. They should find their way through but it
will be tight.
Basel defeated Chelsea home and away last season, and will
look for similar success this year in a group where they will have to face two
huge clubs. Basel has defeated Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United, and
Bayern Munich in recent years, and it would be no shock to me if they are able
to beat Real or Liverpool at least once. They are just a little below the grade
in this group, and while I could see them advancing, I think they will come up just
a bit short. Ludogorets join Malmo in making their first appearance in the
Champions League group stage, and the Bulgarians will have trouble competing.
The three other sides in this group move the ball at a very quick pace,
something Ludogorets will have trouble adjusting to. The long trip could pose a
problem, but they will have a difficult time scraping together any points in
this group.
1) Real Madrid
2) Liverpool
3) FC Basel
4) Ludogorets Razgrad
Group C
Group C is for Group Crapshoot. All four teams in this group
are at around the same level – surprising given the way groups are drawn but
also because not one of these teams really stands out. It would have been all
the more interesting if either Falcao or James Rodriguez had stayed at Monaco,
who now clearly look the weakest of this group. It has been a real struggle in
Europe for French sides in recent years. France gets two teams automatically
into the group stage, while the third placed team goes into the third
qualifying round; the third qualifier was knocked out last year and this year,
while teams not named PSG have compiled just one win in eighteen group games during
the past two tournaments (Lille defeated BATE Borisov in a virtually
meaningless game). Marseille laid down the old six-losses-from-six goose egg
last year. Yikes. Needless to say, my hopes are not high for Monaco and it
looks like there will be more pain for French sides in Europe.
As for the rest of the group, it’s anyone’s guess. Benfica are
mainstays in this competition but have failed to make a deep run, or truly
showcase themselves as a major power. They deserve respect and look to be the
best team in the group, but they are a level below many of the other Pot 1
sides. Bayer Leverkusen have started strongly this year, but I’m skeptical of
any German side other than the top two teams, Bayern and Dortmund. Bayer won at
Dortmund to start the Bundesliga season, so maybe they will establish
themselves, but I would like to see a sustained string of results. The addition
of Swiss forward Josip Drmic could allow Bayer to compete with the top two German
sides. Andre Villas Boas’s Zenit are off to a perfect start in the Russian
Premier League, winning all six of their games. They were much better against
Standard Liege in the playoff round than against AEL in the prior round, so the
Russian side could be a surprise candidate to win the group. I think the side
will boom or bust, and given their erratic performances in the Champions
League, I’m going to go against them here. Hulk’s absence until October will
lose them a bit of attacking edge in their opening games, which could cost them
crucial points. In general, Benfica, Bayer and Zenit could finish in any order
and it wouldn’t surprise me.
1) Benfica
2) Bayer Leverkusen
3) Zenit St. Petersburg
4) AS Monaco
Group D
Dortmund topped Group F last year, finishing above Arsenal
and Napoli, with all three clubs tied on twelve points. The two sides split
their meetings last year, with each side winning away from home. Despite having
two of their best players vultured by Bayern, Dortmund have a very strong lineup
and a number of dynamic attacking players. Marco Reus has attracted plenty of
interest across Europe, but he will be out for a month following his injury in
a Euro 2016 qualifying match against Scotland. This injury gives Arsenal a
slight edge over the Germans in Group D. Arsenal have attacking problems of
their own with main striker Olivier Giroud out for three months, and backup
Yaya Sanogo unable to find the net. However, the Gunners picked up Danny
Welbeck on deadline day, and although I don’t think Welbeck can lead Arsenal
back to the ranks of the elite, he is a much needed purchase to compliment
Alexis Sanchez. I liked Arsenal’s purchases for the most part, despite some of
them being more of the best-player-available versus the player-we-need variety.
Dortmund was able to edge the Londoners to top spot last year, forcing them to
play Bayern Munich while their counterparts took on Zenit. Look for Arsenal to
flip roles with Dortmund, with both going through.
Galatasaray edged through last year’s group stage with a
matchday 6 win over Juventus, but never really challenged Chelsea in the last
sixteen. They have struggled away from home, losing three out of four matches
last season. The departure of Didier Drogba doesn’t affect the team too much,
but as Gala is matched up against two superior sides like Arsenal and Dortmund,
they could have used the extra experience. It’s never easy travelling to
Istanbul – Arsenal was lucky to escape with a 0-0 draw against Besiktas in the
playoff round – but Gala face long odds to advance from this group.
Anderlecht’s are far longer. The club has frequently entered the competition
but rarely made any sort of impact. They came in last in their group during the
past two competitions, and it’s hard to see that result not repeating itself.
Anderlecht has developed a number of stars, including Everton’s Romelu Lukaku,
but have few top-quality players in their squad. Anything above last place
would be surprising.
1) Arsenal
2) Borussia Dortmund
3) Galatasaray
4) Anderlecht
Group E
Similar to Group C, except on a much higher level, Group E
features three sides who will competing for the top two spots to advance, while
the third should wind up in the Europa League. Bayern Munich are facing some questions
after their disappointing end to last season, as well as injuries to top
players Bastian Schweinsteiger and Javi Martinez. The German club brought in Xabi
Alonso and Mehdi Benatia as cover, and the signing of Robert Lewandowski
provides a different dynamic than former lead man Mario Mandzukic. It is a
different Bayern team – I don’t know if it’s better. It’s certainly one of the
best teams in the world, but Pep Guardiola will need to mold this team into the
dominant one that started last season, or face pressure from Bayern’s rogue
board.
As I mentioned in Group A, the Italian league has suffered
over the last few years, especially since losing its fourth Champions League
spot to Germany. Roma had some down years but are back in Europe after
finishing second in Serie A. They could be a dark horse in this group – Rudi
Garcia’s men are an interesting mix of youth and experience. I don’t expect
them to make it through on their first trip back, but things should be very
tight between the Giallorossi and
Manchester City. City are undoubtedly a European powerhouse, making their first
trip to the knockout stage last year, where they were defeated by Barcelona.
This team has had its issues in Europe, but they scored eleven goals in four
games against Bayern and CSKA last year, winning three of the four. It’s
defensive problems that have plagued City throughout their recent years, and
this group is no short of attacking play. I like City to make it over Roma on
their greater European experience, but none of these games will be easy.
Well, CSKA fans must have joked about this draw and been
absolutely horrified when it came out. CSKA allowed thirteen goals in their
four matches against City and Bayern last season, losing every one. This is by
no means a bad team – they have a number of very capable players, such as
Nigeria’s Ahmed Musa and Ivory Coast’s Seydou Doumbia. Their draw is far too
mighty for them, so CSKA’s chances are dim at best.
1) Bayern Munich
2) Manchester City
3) AS Roma
4) CSKA Moscow
Group F
Two of the world’s heavyweights collide in Group F, and the group could go either way. PSG and Barcelona met two years ago in the knockout round
and Barcelona clawed through on away goals. PSG faltered at the quarterfinal
stage last year against a Chelsea team that they were better than, and they
will look upon that experience this year to push them further. This could be
one of the last times Zlatan Ibrahimovic gets to try and capture that elusive
Champions League title to couple all of his domestic wins. PSG didn’t do
themselves any favors in the transfer window, spending way too much money on
the erratic David Luiz and not bolstering either of their wing back positions. However,
I think they win the group because they have a stronger midfield than
Barcelona. The Catalans will score tons of goals, especially when Luis Suarez
enters the fray, and Lionel Messi looks revitalized after he looked somewhat
bored at the end of last season. Rumors about Messi saving himself for the
World Cup were true, as he was stellar in Brazil and is off to a good start in
La Liga. They will be devastating up top, but I want to see how their midfield
performs.
Ajax always seem to get an impossible draw and this year is
no different. They have a much better team than their performances in Europe
would suggest, but what really matters is the results. It will be very
difficult for Ajax to go through, though they have had success against
Barcelona. APOEL is one of my favorite minnows, having reached the
quarterfinals two years ago after winning their group. They are probably the
strongest team to advance from the “Champions” channel of the playoff round and
have considerable European experience. However, this challenge is greater
than what they would have envisioned, and while I expect APOEL to keep things
tight in the back, points will be hard to come by. The deadline day purchase of
former Liverpool and AS Roma left-back John Arne Riise gives them an unexpected
boost in class and makes the side more intriguing from an upset standpoint. A
last place finish seems the most likely, but I hardly expect any embarrassments
from the Cypriots.
1) Paris Saint-Germain
2) Barcelona
3) Ajax
4) APOEL
Group G
Group G is for Group Gift - this group was a gift for
Chelsea. There are few scenarios, if any, where it could have turned out
better, as they drew one of the weakest teams from each pot and also don’t have
to travel very far. Chelsea destroyed Schalke last season, winning 3-0 home and
away, en route to winning Group E. The Blues have a better team than last year
and if Diego Costa can stay healthy, they will make a long run in this
competition. The addition of Loic Remy gives him a solid cover, while the
unloading of Fernando Torres allowed the forward position to start anew in the side. Costa and Remy have put up eight goals in Chelsea's first four Premier League games and in a weak group, Chelsea could score a lot of goals. It
would be a major surprise to see Chelsea not top this group, as would fewer
than four wins.
Schalke are very average for me. I’ve talked before about my
feelings towards Bayern Munich and the way they have eaten up the competition
in the Bundesliga, and Schalke is not even close to the level they were on a
few years ago. They have plenty of good players, but finished a distant third
in the Bundesliga last year, and were demolished by Chelsea in the group stage
and 9-2 on aggregate by Real Madrid in the knockout round. Ugh. Players like
Julian Draxler and Benedikt Howedes return with World Cup Winners’ medals, and
maybe that could help spark this team back to a higher level. For now, I see
them going through, but just barely.
Sporting broke the 1-2 dominance Porto and Benfica enjoyed
in the Portuguese Liga, finishing second behind their Lisbon rivals last
season. My last memory of them in the competition was a record 12-1 aggregate
spanking that Bayern Munich handed them in the knockout stage. Sporting are an
unknown at this point and could surprise, especially with how vulnerable
Schalke and Maribor are. I gave the edge to Schalke based on experience, but
Sporting should be right there with them. Teams that are as young as Sporting
do not often get very far, but they should keep things interesting. Maribor won
the Slovenian league and make their second appearance in the group stage.
Maribor is a proud club with a successful history in Slovenia, but it hasn’t
translated to Europe. I see them stealing a point or two off of Sporting or
Schalke, but it’s difficult to see them posing any major threat to the other
three sides in this group.
1) Chelsea
2) Schalke
3) Sporting CP
4) Maribor
Group H
Athletic defeated Napoli in a playoff to reach the group
stage, and it shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise. Spain and Italy have
been on a straight path in opposite directions over the past few years, with
Spanish teams performing exceptionally in Europe while Italian teams have
repeatedly faltered. Athletic bring a free-flowing passing game to the
competition, and while I’m wary of their lack of European experience, they look
like the best team in this group. They don’t resemble Real Sociedad’s side from
last year that crashed out in the group.
Porto really struggled last year. They scored just four
goals in six games in a very weak group, finishing level on points with Austria
Vienna. That was certainly not what they had in mind, and reinforcements were
brought in this summer to strengthen the attacking play. Adrian Lopez should
have a positive effect following his move from Atletico, and Porto will be
hoping Yacine Brahimi can continue playing at the level he displayed during the
World Cup. I think they will improve greatly and should find their way into the
next round.
BATE have reached the group stage for the third time in five
years, sweeping aside Slovan Bratislava in the playoff round. They defeated
Bayern and Lille in their last campaign, finishing third and garnering some
good reviews. Many of BATE’s players have played for the club for years and are
also members of the Belorussian national team, so there is a chemistry about
the side. They are lacking in flair, but BATE could cause problems for teams in
this group. I’m picking Shakhtar last in this group because I don’t know how
they will play while their home arena is being shelled by military forces. They
have struggled at this stage before, and their title success was less dominant
than years past. They also came in third in a very weak group last year. They
have the talent to go through from this group, but it’s going to be hard with
the political situation hanging over their heads.
1) Athletic Bilbao
2) FC Porto
3) BATE Borisov
4) Shakhtar Donetsk
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