Friday, December 16, 2011

Reflections on the Champions League Draw

As much as I love seeing the European draws, the Champions League knock-out round's draw is always a tease, as we won't see the ties for another two months. I won't make my official predictions until a few days before the ties, since we have a ton of time and a whole transfer window to go through, which could change the prospective of many of the teams. For now though, there are a few interesting points to look at:

LUCKY DRAW: Bayern Munich.
Despite their victory over Manchester United, FC Basel must be considered the biggest underdogs at this stage, and now face the daunting task of knocking off German giants Bayern. Bayern took care of the other big Swiss side, FC Zurich, 3-0 on aggregate in qualifying. As Bayern's directors have already stated, this is the tie they wanted, and they will be heavy favorites to come through. Basel have showed they can score against a big side, with five goals against Manchester United in their two games. However, few can expect the Swiss side to come through here. Barring any major injuries to the Bayern side, we can safely expect a relatively easy Bayern win. Hopefully it won't be as lopsided as their record 12-1 aggregate win over Sporting Lisbon a few years ago.

UNLUCKY ENGLISH: English sides get two worst draws.
I ranked Napoli and AC Milan as the toughest teams in the runners-up pot, and they were drawn against English sides Chelsea and Arsenal respectively. Chelsea will be challenged by Napoli's pace and skill up top, and Arsenal's sometimes faulty defense will be put to the test of Zlatan, Pato, Robinho and company. This one I really won't look much into, because I think Chelsea, Arsenal and AC Milan are all going to make some major moves in the transfer window. Both English sides will be slight favorites, but you could see either or both going out.

TRICKY SPANISH: Largely unknown opponents will provide challenge for Spanish giants.
Real Madrid face a trip to Russia to face CSKA and Barcelona face off against Bayer Leverkusen. Playing in Russia will be difficult for Real Madrid, as it is quite chilly in February.  CSKA have some strong players and if they can play well in Russia, they can remember Rubin Kazan's win at the Nou Camp in 2009, the biggest victory for a Russian side in Spain. Bayer Leverkusen would have come in first in Group E if they could have defeated Genk on the final matchday, but the draw has sent them to play holders Barcelona. Bayer can present Barcelona with some challenge if they can handle the Catalan side's dearth of attacking talent. The loss of David Villa should not be too drastic, but it will affect their depth both domestically and in Europe. I would expect both Spanish sides to get through, but perhaps not quite as easy as it looks for one or both sides.

UPSET ALERT: Lyon.
Well, you probably saw that one coming. Other than FC Basel, this is the best draw for Cypriot minnows APOEL, as they avoid a perennial giant. Lyon is strong, but they are hardly a Bayern or Madrid, especially as they limped through the group stage. Six of their eight points came against hapless Dinamo Zagreb, they failed to score in two ties against Ajax (although they did not concede either) and were very overmatched against Real Madrid, losing 6-0 on aggregate. APOEL had not lost a game until the last day's game against Shakhtar (which was essentially meaningless) and have come up with three draws in their three road ties. That will be the gameplan against Lyon, to tie the first match in France, then hope to come home to their roaring crowd to knockout the French side. Lyon will be favorites but they are ripe for the picking, and APOEL has a great chance at having their European dream continue.

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