UEFA Champions League: Semifinal Preview

Once again, Spain continues to place its stamp on European competition. Two Spanish clubs find their place in the semifinals of the Champions League, while Sevilla and Valencia face off in the Europa League. England, Germany, Italy and Portugal each have just one representative left in European competition. It’s difficult to determine which domestic league is the best, but by this criterion, La Liga is clearly supreme. I think it’s difficult to definitively say that it is, just because the league has been dominated so thoroughly by Real Madrid and Barcelona over the last decade, and when you look at the overall depth of the league, it starts to run dry after third or fourth place most years. This year, it is nearly indisputable that La Liga has been the best – Atletico has been a positive surprise, and Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Real Sociedad are all solid teams. While the Premier League has been regarded recently as the best in the world because of the massive investment and increasing parity from top to bottom, the quality of Spanish football must be recognized. Great strides have been made in Spain this year, but will any Spanish sides come home with European silverware?  

Semifinal matchups:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

A true matchup of world football giants, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich meet for the second time in three years in the Champions League semifinals. Two years ago, it was Bayern who took a 2-1 lead in the first leg in Munich through a last-minute strike from Mario Gomez, but Real replied with two early goals at the Bernabeu, only for Bayern to equalize from the spot. It was the spot that decided the tie, as three of Real’s four penalty takers missed (including a horrific effort from Sergio Ramos) and Bayern won the shootout, 3-1. Overall it was a very even tie, and with many of the big names still playing a starting role in the sides, I expect another even tilt.

One thing that has changed is the coaching staffs at each club. That matchup in 2012 featured Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho at Real, with retired treble winner Jupp Heynckes at Bayern. Carlo Ancelotti leads Madrid now, while former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola has taken charge at Bayern. Both coaches have considerable experience at this level, as they, along with Mourinho, are vying to become the second coach in history to win three Champions League crowns. 

I think this tie favors Bayern Munich, but they will have a huge advantage if Ronaldo’s injury affects his play, or prevents him from playing altogether. It would be difficult to see him missing the match entirely, but players vary on their ability to play through injury. Ronaldo is the best player remaining in the competition, and if Real are to make the final, he will have to be the catalyst. Bayern’s defense has been anything but convincing, and while Guardiola has always been known for his attacking prowess rather than building an organized defense, they still have a sizeable advantage over Madrid. Mistake-prone players like Sergio Ramos and Pepe still play significant minutes at the heart of Real’s defense, and their showing in Dortmund will be met with similar punishment if they repeat that performance against the Bavarians. Speaking of Dortmund, they waxed a full-strength Bayern 3-0 in Munich last weekend. Neither side looks all that intimidating in the defensive third. 

I like Bayern in this matchup because I think they provide more ways to break you down. Madrid have a wealth of attacking players, and Gareth Bale has come into form during the second half of the season, but I don’t know how much they will trouble Bayern if Ronaldo is not playing at full strength. They are used to having a lion's share of the ball, and they won't against Bayern. Both sides conceded two goals in the last round – Bayern gave up a magnificent header to Nemanja Vidic off of a corner, and a rocket to Patrice Evra from open play, while Real produced an awful back header and a giveaway in midfield. My point is that Bayern are less mistake-prone at the back and have more solidity in their game plan than Real does. With more of the ball, and likely more of the chances, I see Bayern making their third straight finals appearance.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2 – 3 Bayern Munich (2 – 1 H, 0 – 2 A)

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Atletico Madrid has been nothing short of outstanding under Diego Simeone. He has already won the Europa League, UEFA Super Cup (against Chelsea) and Copa Del Rey since joining the club in December 2011. It’s also worth noting that despite their success, they’ve had several stars join other clubs (Sergio Aguero, Diego Forlan, Falcao as a few examples) and they have been in financial trouble for years. Chelsea haven’t had any financial issues since Roman Abramovich bought the club, and despite Mourinho’s best efforts to lower expectations for the season, the club found itself in the thick of the Premier League title race for much of the year and now competing in the semi-finals of the European Cup.

The clubs have faced one another three times in the last five years; twice in the group stage of the 2009-10 UEFA Champions League, and in the 2012 UEFA Super Cup in Monaco. Chelsea won 4-0 at Stamford Bridge, while the teams drew 2-2 in Madrid. The Super Cup was won decisively by Atletico, a 4-1 drubbing coming courtesy of a first-half Falcao hat-trick. With these sides, I would not put much stock into the past results – some of Chelsea’s longest-tenured players are still around but hardly any of Atletico’s are. Mourinho only lost to Atletico once in his three years at Real – it was his last game, the final of last year’s Copa Del Rey, with Atletico winning 2-1. All six La Liga games were won by Real, with the aggregate score 16:4. 

While Chelsea showed their typical character in grinding out the result against PSG, they have to play a lot better to get through this tie. Atletico suffocated Barcelona’s attacking front with surprising ease, and have conceded just once in each knockout round tie. With the opportunities Atletico has been creating all season, and the improving health of Diego Costa, I don’t see one goal being good enough for Chelsea to move on to the final. Samuel Eto'o will not play in Madrid, meaning it will be up to Fernando Torres or Demba Ba to lead the lines away from home.

This tie will likely be won at the Vicente Calderon. Atletico have conceded just nine goals in 17 home games in La Liga this season – a very similar record to PSG’s. The difference is La Liga is one of the top three leagues on the globe. It’s going to be very difficult for Chelsea to create chances with the way Atletico pressure them, and if Eden Hazard is forced to miss the first leg, Chelsea will be short of attacking options. Diego Godin and Miranda are going to be hot commodities this off season, and with Atletico normally looking to take profits on players, they could easily be moving on this summer. But this defensive unit, along with Chelsea loanee Thibault Courtois, has been one of the best in Europe in recent years.

Does Chelsea's loss against Sunderland have any effect on this tie? I'm not sure. In one sense, it allows them to focus squarely on European competition, but losing at home to the team at the bottom of the table can never be seen as a positive. I think they will be sluggish early in Madrid, but they have more than enough quality and experience to steady themselves. This is going to be another dead-even tie, but I give Chelsea the edge because I think they match up well with Atletico's attack and displayed a suffocating home advantage in the quarterfinals. I don't expect them to be in as deep of a hole this time around. Don't expect many goals either - both coaches will be happy to grind this one out.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Champions League Quarterfinals Review

The results were as follows (on aggregate)

Real Madrid 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Chelsea 3 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain (Chelsea advances on away goals)

Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Manchester United

Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Barcelona

It sounds simple, but at this point, the teams that move on are the teams that take their chances – possession, style of play, etc. don’t really matter because all of the teams are good. All four quarterfinal losers had plenty of chances to create a different result than their ultimate defeats, and for PSG and Dortmund, it is especially painful to go out because they had several great chances to score more goals. It doesn’t always matter what the matchup is – putting the ball in the net, whether it’s out of one chance or twenty, is why the four semi-finalists are through. The Champions League isn’t about being the best; it’s about doing enough to win. 

I figured on Atletico – Barcelona being the toughest to call, and it’s the first one of this year’s knockout round that I gave an incorrect prediction. In truth, it wasn’t all that close – Atletico were clearly the better side. I would say Barcelona may have edged the first leg, despite trailing on away goals, but in the second leg Atletico were rampant. They allowed Barca to stay in the tie but created numerous wonderful chances and were very unlucky, hitting the bar three times in the first twenty minutes of the match. They are a hard-working side and their place atop La Liga and in the semi-finals of the Champions League can only be questioned by those who have not seen the team play. They have a disruptive style of play by pressing high up the pitch, which allows them to brush aside smaller, weaker opposition. Barcelona have proven themselves to be somewhat of a one-dimensional side, and while they are elite in their tiki-taka passing, they have been taken out in the last three years by teams that bullied them physically. With their world champion Spanish midfield nearing the end of their prime, if not already at the end already, Barcelona is facing a transitional phase. Their loss to Granada at the weekend just compounds what has been a disappointing season for the Catalans.

The tie between Chelsea and PSG was always going to be close because the teams play in a very similar way. They are both led from the back, have exciting wing players with pace, as well as being strong at home while not as dominating on the road. I actually think PSG played poorly in this tie, perhaps due to their inexperience in the competition, and losing Zlatan for the second leg really hurt them. Cavani was lost up top and could have buried Chelsea twice but failed to hit the target on either occasion. But starting from the first leg, they played passively and gave Chelsea the chance to dominate the first half. In the second half they were better, but scored the two goals because of some terrible defending, not great football. In the second leg, they started off positively, and looked comfortable until Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea. That set off what seemed to be fear throughout the whole side, and it took almost thirty minutes, when Yohan Cabaye came on, for the side to stabilize. They were better and should have killed off the game but didn’t, and now must face more questions of their credentials. I think the French Ligue 1 doesn’t test them enough, and while that is something they have little control over, it’s going to be hard to put PSG in the elite class until they can prove themselves on the continental stage. 

I’m not taking away anything from Chelsea here. There are few sides I would give a better chance of overturning a 3-1 deficit than the Blues, if any at all, and overcoming the loss of Eden Hazard made the triumph even more impressive. Not many teams can lose their best player, who is also the center of their attacking game plan, and beat a team like PSG by two goals. Were they fortunate? I wouldn’t say so – they hit two posts and looked like the better side for a majority of the two legs. They were sloppy in France and were punished, but they put together a determined performance at the Bridge. Mourinho and Chelsea personify the attitude of getting results, and not worrying about how the result is achieved. That looping shot from Ba was just enough to see Chelsea through.

When Patrice Evra scored his thunderous volley (see it if you haven’t), Manchester United had a lead against Bayern Munich after almost 150 of the 180 minutes of the tie. That is something I never really considered as a possibility, and interestingly enough, they were playing well enough to deserve it. That lead lasted all of 70 seconds, and after that lead evaporated so quickly into the Allianz Arena air, you could tell it was over. The sad part for United is that this was their best tactical showing of the year, and it was against an opponent they knew would try to dominate them. From his days at Everton, David Moyes was used to having less talent than his opponents, but he could shape his sides to put in hardworking performances while not seeing much of the ball. Manchester United plays on the ball, and as a top club, must dominate it in most games. That is why he is not the man for this job – he doesn’t have that style in his playbook, and these players don’t either. He did a great job in this tie because it was one where he had to be defensive, and if he had a healthy Wayne Rooney, or Robin Van Persie, they just may have squeaked through. As it is, they are out and have virtually no chance at reaching the competition next year through their place in the league. If Moyes stays on to rebuild the squad to make it back to the Champions League, he’s going to have to blow up the way it’s structured now. 

As for Bayern, it was very unimpressive. They were poor in Manchester despite having over 75% of the ball and were dreadful in Munich until Evra woke them up with his screamer. The bottom line is that if they play like that in the next round, they will be out. United were the weakest team in the draw, and Bayern prepared for them like they knew that. It was positive to see the side adapt after going a goal down to quickly brush away their fans’ fears of a shock exit, but there are plenty of causes for concern. Perhaps the weakness of the Bundesliga, which Bayern had a large role in creating, is creating a lackadaisical feeling in the locker room. They were rather fortunate against Arsenal and United to make it through. Bayern can be the best team in the world, and from this stage on, they must start to play like it or they will be eliminated. 

Real Madrid must be a frustrating side to root for. They played exactly the way I thought they would in the first leg, dominating a decimated Dortmund team missing their top striker. I know Ronaldo didn’t play in the second leg but they were terrible in Dortmund. Terrible. They could have been 3-0 down at halftime and Dortmund had a number of golden chances to score in the second half. I just don’t understand it, Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach and tactician, so I don’t get how missing Ronaldo (he’s great of course) turns them into such a slow team. Everything was slow, conservative, and the defense was mistake-happy, gifting Reus a brace. Very surprising performance in that regard. I think it's one they can brush off quickly, but they added to their miserable history in Germany after putting a stop on it in the round of 16.

I thought Dortmund would be very overmatched here and what they proved is that if Jurgen Klopp stays at the club, they will be a force to be reckoned with. They have suffered through injuries, transfer rumors, and pre-contract signatures of its best players to Bayern Munich, but Dortmund had a great chance to reach the semi-finals for a second straight year. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a wonderful player, but he has underperformed this season and missed an open goal that would have tied the aggregate at 3. The squad bounced back to crush Bayern 3-0 over the weekend, with Klopp sitting Lewandowski to start. A test for next season perhaps? Klopp is already trying to gain an edge.

The semifinals are drawn as such:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Possibilities include a Madrid derby in Lisbon's final, as well as a rematch of the 2012 final. It should be interesting - these are four great teams but nobody is in particularly great form. Preview coming late this week.

UEFA Champions League - Quarterfinal Preview

Overall everything went as planned - I expected to see all of these teams go through and with the exception of Man United, it had looked that way through the first leg. Am I surprised United were able to overturn the 2-0 deficit against Olympiakos? No, but I am surprised at the performance from the Greeks. United have been fragile at home all season and Olympiakos just sat back and let them do what they wished. As good as they were in Piraeus is how bad they were at Old Trafford, and United live on in the competition - winning it is their only hope of reappearing next year.

At this point, any teams can be drawn against one another, whereas teams were disqualified from playing each other in the last round if they were in the same group or from the same country. Only four countries have representatives left - Spain (3), England (2), Germany (2) and France (1). The matchups are as follows - the first team listed is home for the first leg:

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund
Paris Saint-Germain - Chelsea
Manchester United - Bayern Munich

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid

Very interesting matchup - Atletico currently lead La Liga by one point over Barcelona. They have met three times already this season, with all three resulting in draws and just two goals being scored. Both teams are known for their offensive firepower, but these two sides are the top two defensive teams in La Liga. Given the stage, I wouldn't expect things to open up. Goals are going to be few and far between.

Although I have never been a huge fan of Victor Valdes, his season-ending injury puts Barcelona in a difficult position. Their defensive record is more due to their midfield than their defense, and teams that are able to counter Barcelona effectively and bypass that midfield are usually able to find the net. In their meetings this season, Atletico have pressed Barca in midfield, forcing them to play quickly in the final third, but allowing the Catalans a huge majority of the ball. It is generally a massive mistake to try and over-press Barca because they can and will punish you. In this case, I think Atletico can use that strategy and force defensive errors. Diego Simeone has done an amazing job with this team and they have conceded just 9 goals in 16 home matches in the league.

This is by far the toughest matchup to pick. I am going to pick Barcelona just because they have more experience at this stage, and with a better attacking force, they are more likely to make Atletico pay for a momentary lapse. It's really up in the air though - there has been nothing to separate the two sides this season. Valdes' injury leaves Barca even more vulnerable at the back, and against a tough Atletico defense, they could be in trouble if they don't leave the Camp Nou with a lead. I think they will, and their task will be to hold on at the Vicente Calderon.

Prediction: Barcelona 2 – 1 Atletico Madrid (1 – 0 H, 1 – 1 A)

Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund

They meet again. Real Madrid fell 4-3 on aggregate to Borussia Dortmund in last year's semifinals, but they will get another shot at Jurgen Klopp's side, this time playing at home first. After leading the league for a good portion of the last few months, two successive defeats have made Real outsiders to claim the title. Cristiano Ronaldo will look to add to his Champions League-leading 13 goals this term against a side that allowed four goals over two games in the previous round. I've spoken quite a bit about my disdain for Bayern's behavior in the transfer market, and the brunt of their moves have been aimed at Dortmund. They simply aren't the same team. Their 5-4 aggregate victory over a weak Zenit side in the last round is an illustration of their regression from their elite sides of the past few years.

Although this matchup looks like a grudge match for Real Madrid, I think this will come a lot easier for them than it may appear. They were nervous last year at home after being battered 4-1 at Dortmund, and still managed to win 2-0 and nearly squeak through. This year's Dortmund team is not nearly as good, and this year's Real team should be going for broke in the Champions League after falling off the pace in La Liga. Dortmund are in second place in the Bundesliga, but their confidence has been sapped by the Robert Lewandowski saga. They haven't hit the level they played at last season, and they needed everything they had to get by Real at that point. Now, they won't have Lewandowski in the first leg because of suspension and the rest of the team, especially the defense, has been far less impressive. Real can put this tie to bed in at the Bernabeu and not have to worry about their traditionally poor record in Germany (although they did crush Schalke 6-1 in the last round). For Dortmund, they must show the form that got them to last year's final and must do so without one of their best players in the first leg. Heavy advantage for Madrid here.

Prediction: Real Madrid 4 – 2 Borussia Dortmund (3 – 0 H, 1 – 2 A)

PSG - Chelsea

This is the matchup the public was likely hoping for, as Laurent Blanc's upstart PSG side take on Jose Mourinho's Chelsea. There has been quite a bit said in the press about this matchup, as players from each club have ties to the other side. Eden Hazard has ties to PSG from his childhood, while Lucas Moura spoke highly of both him and Oscar to the press after the draw. Zlatan Ibrahimovic has played for Jose Mourinho before, and the two won Serie A together and had a good relationship during their short spell together at Inter.

I expect Chelsea to play very defensively in the first match. Mourinho has exited the Champions League in the semi finals in each of the past three seasons, and in the last two, he has gotten caught playing too openly away from home. Last year's 4-1 thrashing at the hands of Borussia Dortmund put his Real side in a near-impossible position, and although they came close with a 2-0 win, it was hardly a classic Mourinho tie. He wants low-scoring, tight, defensive battles because he disciplines his teams in the final third. Chelsea have struggled at times away from home this season, and with PSG sporting a 42:5 goal tally at home in Ligue 1, it would be wise to avoid being too aggressive. PSG can be deadly in attack, but have yet to consistently dominate as an attacking force. However, with Zlatan in the team, goals can come from nothing. Chelsea does have the right players to match up with him - both Gary Cahill and John Terry are big, experienced center backs who play a physical brand of defense. But no player is a "good" matchup against Zlatan and he scored four goals against England in 2012 with Cahill in the lineup. It's best of luck to whoever is trying to stop him.

PSG and Chelsea are very similar sides and this tie will be decided by which forwards take their limited chances or by a moment of brilliance. There is world class talent across the board so anything is possible. Chelsea are at a clear disadvantage in the forward position and have struggled to find goals away from home. Their defense has been tested on this stage many times and they will be trying to get to the point where they can win the tie at Stamford Bridge. PSG must establish an advantage at home to get through to the next round. I think they're one year away from getting over this hurdle. They are not tested frequently enough in Ligue 1, with only Monaco somewhat close, and they are now without Falcao due to his knee injury. Chelsea should find themselves in the semifinals as long as they are not overrun in the first leg by PSG's prolific attacking force.

Prediction: PSG 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Manchester United - Bayern Munich

When Philipp Lahm said that he was "happy" with the draw against Manchester United, he was not talking about a big club matchup. United's shambolic season made them the most attractive draw, and they are now in the hands of the favorites to win the trophy. David Moyes has been under constant pressure in the media all season, and although most United fans still back him, most observers (such as myself) think that he is in over his head. They will also be without Robin Van Persie due to injury. Bayern are rolling through the Bundesliga and have dropped only six points all season, drawing three games and losing none while winning twenty-five. They are playing like the machine they were built to be, and have very rarely shown weakness.

I can never say impossible in the Champions League, but I can't see anything but a Bayern victory in this tie. United are anything but united, and even their victories fail to really encourage the idea of a turnaround in fortunes for Moyes. Their victory over Olympiakos was largely due to some individual brilliance from Van Persie and some poor tactics from an inexperienced opposing manager. They will have neither in this tie. Pep Guardiola has inherited some of the best teams and players of this generation, but he has won practically everything and has this Bayern team playing at a stunningly high level. Bayern will dominate both matches in this tie and I would be surprised to see them win the tie by fewer than three goals. They were exposed a bit by Hoffenheim last weekend in a 3-3 draw, but that was the first time they failed to win at home in the league all season, and they were clearly looking ahead to this tie by resting starters. I'm going to be hoping United knock the Bavarians out - it would be a monumental upset. Not hoping too hard though.

Prediction: Manchester United 1 – 5 Bayern Munich (0 – 2 H, 1 – 3 A)

2013-14 Champions League Group Stage Preview

Jimmy’s Soccer Weekly is back with an extensive preview of this year’s Champions League group stage. Oddsmakers’ favorites for this year’s competition are Barcelona. The addition of Neymar makes Barcelona a nightmare to try and defend against, especially considering how well they keep possession. However, I don’t consider the Spanish side to be strong favorites at this point, as their defense is substandard and the midfield players are starting to show their age. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Chelsea, PSG and Juventus are only slightly behind. Manchester United, Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid are also contenders, and AC Milan are my dark horse contenders to make the semi-finals. A little Balotelli can go a long way. If I had to choose a winner, I would pick PSG. If they can bring everything together they are a scary team to face.

Group A

Participants: Manchester United (ENG, 1st), Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR, 1st), Bayer Leverkusen (GER, 3rd), Real Sociedad (ESP, 4th)

Group A presents an interesting challenge for perennial knockout stage contestant Manchester United. Shakhtar have won the Ukrainian Premier League each of the past four seasons, as well as seven of the past nine. They also qualified for last season’s knockout stage by edging out Chelsea in a group that included Juventus and FC Nordsjaelland. Bayer came in third place in a difficult Bundesliga and have started off their campaign this season with three wins from three. Sociedad look very similar to last year’s Malaga team; they are not a well-known commodity but possess a number of high-quality players, as they showcased in their easy 4-0 win over Lyon in qualifying.

United have had trouble with Spanish teams in this competition and Real Sociedad’s pot 4 ranking and lack of experience do not play as much of a role as many think. United are the strongest squad in this group and I expect them to win it, but the games will be very tight. This is one of the tougher groups they have been given over the past few years, and they must play very well to go through. Do not anticipate any team in this group winning more than three games. I like Real to come in second and slightly edge Shakhtar. Shakhtar lost Fernandinho and Henrikh Mkhitaryan this summer, but brought in four Brazilians, incuding young star Bernard from Atletico Miniero. They will be very tough to beat, especially in Donetsk. The Spanish side are a sleeper in this tournament and if they can overcome their general shortage of experience, they will be a dangerous team. Bayer will be competitive but still resemble a work in progress. They will struggle on their travels.

Prediction: 1) Manchester United 2) Real Sociedad 3) Shakhtar Donetsk 4) Bayer Leverkusen

Group B

Participants: Real Madrid (ESP, 2nd), Juventus (ITA, 1st), Galatasaray (TUR, 1st), FC Copenhagen (DEN, 1st)

Real Madrid must have been horrified to see Juventus pop up from Pot 2, and Galatasaray is no cakewalk either. All three sides were in the last eight of last year’s competition and will fight closely for the two spots in the knockout stage. Copenhagen typically play better than expected and even qualified for the knockout stages a few years ago but their odds are very long in this group. The top three sides possess a wealth of experience that the Danish side will have trouble suppressing.

With the depth and talent in their squad, Real Madrid will not accept anything less than a knockout stage appearance. I think Juventus are just as good, and can frustrate Real in the final third. If Real do not show the tactical discipline they often displayed in Europe under Jose Mourinho, they could lose top spot in this group to the Italians. The top spot often avoids some of the stronger teams in the round of 16, and both sides will be desperate to take it. Galatasaray are a good team but they look just a bit short here. They were beaten rather routinely by Real in last year’s knockout stage and Juventus are just as tough. They will not be an easy out, especially at home, but they would need to be exceptional to escape this group. Copenhagen have one of the worst draws in the tournament. There is no safe haven in this group at all, and while they are far from the worst team in the tournament, the Danes could wind up with one of the worst goal differences of the group stage.

Prediction: 1) Real Madrid 2) Juventus 3) Galatasaray 4) FC Copenhagen

Group C

Participants: Benfica (POR, 2nd), Paris Saint-Germain (FRA, 1st), Olympiakos (GRE, 1st), Anderlecht (BEL, 1st)

Group C is not the most attractive group, but big-spending PSG will be very happy with this draw. Benfica have been strong for the past few years but have consistently been in the grade just below elite. Olympiakos have dominated Greece, which has been an unknown entity the past few years due to the financial plights of other big clubs in the country. The Piraeus side lack any real competition outside of their games on the continent. Anderlecht are the minnows of the group but don’t count the Belgians completely out.

PSG should breeze through this group – travelling to Portugal and the long ride to Greece will not be as straightforward but they are simply on a different level than their opponents. The signing of Edinson Cavani has made a team that lost on away goals in last year’s quarterfinals an immediate trophy contender. This team should go a long way in this competition. On the other hand, second place will be very closely fought for. I give Benfica the edge over Olympiakos because of their superior attacking play. Benfica have made the Estadio da Luz a stronghold in recent years, and the Portuguese should see their way through. I don’t expect it to be pretty – the bottom three sides will likely win two games each at a maximum. Anderlecht haven’t shown much to suggest they can take enough points to head through, but they are one of the better Pot 4 sides and will give the other teams trouble in Belgium.

Prediction: 1) Paris Saint-Germain 2) Benfica 3) Olympiakos 4) Anderlecht

Group D

Participants: Bayern Munich (GER, 1st), CSKA Moscow (RUS, 1st), Manchester City (ENG, 2nd), Viktoria Plzen (CZE, 1st)

Defending champions Bayern Munich are stuck facing high-powered Manchester City in the group stage, while also facing a difficult trip to Russia champions CSKA Moscow and an interesting minnow in Czech champions Viktoria Plzen. City are stuck in Pot 3 after poor displays in Europe the past two years. Last year they were especially awful, failing to win any of their six games and earning just three points. CSKA are the spoiler in this group – this team has been flying under the radar for a long time and no team likes travelling to Moscow to play on the artificial surface. Plzen played in this competition two years ago but were given little chance, as they were drawn alongside Barcelona, AC Milan, and BATE Borisov. The odds here are not much greater but the increased experience should help their results this year.

Bayern are adjusting to the coaching style of Pep Guardiola and still look like they need work. Last year they were utterly dominant, and to progress from this group they will need to be on that level. City must advance in Europe to avoid a crisis. They have crashed out early in their two seasons and came in last in the group this past year. City have grown up a bit but there is still much to be desired, but they avoided a group of death this year and should make it through. CSKA will not be given much of a chance, but this team is very underrated and I could see them knocking City out. This is a solid team, and if City do not sort out their defensive issues, they will be staring at another early exit. Plzen are a decent side but they will only have a chance to take points at home. Even there, they will only come up with one or two.

Prediction: 1) Bayern Munich 2) Manchester City 3) CSKA Moscow 4) Viktoria Plzen

Group E

Participants: Chelsea (ENG, 3rd), Schalke (GER, 4th), FC Basel (SUI, 1st), Steaua Bucharest (ROU, 1st)

Chelsea received the dream draw of any of the teams in Pot 1, as Schalke, Basel and Steaua don’t pose too much of a threat. Chelsea eliminated Steaua in last year’s Europa League title run despite losing in Romania, and also took out Basel in the semi-finals. Schalke were arguably the weakest team in Pot 2 and did not resemble a strong contender in the playoffs against PAOK. Basel have been playing attractive football the past few years and it is good to see them back in the Champions League. Steaua are an interesting team – they are not at the level of the Romanian powerhouse in the 80’s, but Bucharest will not be a fun place to travel.

Chelsea should win this group easily. They’ve demonstrated they are a better side than Basel and Steaua, and Schalke are not much stronger, if they are at all. Mourinho has led his teams to four consecutive semi-finals or further, and Chelsea will be a contender for his fifth. Second place is up in the air – Basel are my favorites despite being the Pot 3 side, as their style could give Schalke and Steaua a lot of trouble. I am probably undervaluing Schalke’s depth, but they have been terrible to start the season and aren’t going to provide any “big club” fear factor to these teams. I could see any of these three qualifying from the group with Chelsea, but the Swiss side are the most likely.

Prediction: 1) Chelsea 2) FC Basel 3) Schalke 4) Steaua Bucharest

Group F

Participants: Arsenal (ENG, 4th), Marseille (FRA, 2nd), Borussia Dortmund (GER, 2nd), Napoli (ITA, 2nd)

Arsenal were handed a place in the group of death as they drew the toughest teams in Pots 3 and 4 in Dortmund and Napoli. Marseille are no slouch either after last year’s second place finish in Ligue 1. Dortmund return after last year’s run to the title game, while Napoli recorded their best ever finish in Serie A, 2nd place behind Juventus.

Everyone keeps expecting the world to cave in at Arsenal, but Arsene Wenger continues to keep his head steady and run the club the same way. Yeah, the club haven’t won anything in eight years but Wenger always has his side in the Champions League and always gets them into the knockout stage. It’s difficult to tell sometimes what you are going to get with Arsenal, but their European play has often overshadowed domestic worries in the early stages of the competition.

This, however, is not what the Gunners were looking for, as they find themselves in a group where you can argue they are the worst team. It’s not extreme at all. Dortmund are last year’s runners up, and despite losing Gotze and enduring the Lewandowski saga, they look just as strong. This team is one of the most exciting to watch on the continent. Napoli was the one side no team from Pot 1 wanted to see, as their low UEFA coefficient speaks nothing of their true quality. Marseille finished second in an improving French league and are off to another good start this year. So, this is far from ideal. I don’t see a City-like disaster occurring, but without any purchases, Arsenal are not leaving this group. Napoli could take it – they are very tough at home and Dortmund might be focusing a bit more domestically this year. The rivalry with Bayern is raging more than ever. But really, there is no scenario in this group too difficult to envision. Every game will be one to watch.

Prediction: 1) Napoli 2) Borussia Dortmund 3) Arsenal 4) Marseille

Group G

Participants: FC Porto (POR, 1st), Atletico Madrid (ESP, 3rd), Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS, 2nd), Austria Vienna (AUT, 1st)

Group G is the least flashy of this year’s draw, but presents an interesting mix. FC Porto are the favorites from Pot 1, but Atletico had a breakthrough season last year, finishing 3rd in La Liga. Despite losing Falcao, Atletico should be an attractive side this year. Zenit have been strong for the past few years too, and a young side is starting to evolve into a more consistent team. Austria Vienna are the competition’s minnows, but this is a favorable draw for them. None of these sides will blow away the Austrians and with the right tactical adjustments, they may just have a chance.

This group reminds me quite a bit of Group G two years ago, which unknown Pot 4 minnows APOEL won their group when facing Porto, Zenit, and Shakhtar. Vienna have a similar task here, and while I don’t expect much from them, the opportunity is there. Atletico are a better side than Shakhtar was and will be favorites to win the group, but they will not be too pleased with these opponents. Porto won the Portuguese league again last year and are always tough at home. Zenit added some experience to their squad this offseason and have consistently underachieved at this level. Is this their year to break out? I don’t see it at this point, and unless Porto lose a couple of players in the transfer window they should be through.

Prediction: 1) Atletico Madrid 2) FC Porto 3) Zenit St. Petersburg 4) Austria Vienna

Group H

Participants: FC Barcelona (ESP, 1st), AC Milan (ITA, 3rd), Ajax (NED, 1st), Celtic (SCO, 1st)

Group H features sides very familiar with each other. This group features four clubs who have all won the European Cup. Barcelona and AC Milan will meet for the seventh and eighth times in the last three years, while Celtic and Barcelona meet in the group stage for the second consecutive year. Despite the historic legacies of all four clubs, it will likely be Ajax and Celtic left fighting for scraps in this group.

I know, what about Celtic’s play against Barcelona last year? It can’t be ignored, as they narrowly lost 2-1 on an injury-time goal at the Nou Camp and beat Catalans 2-1 at Celtic Park. I watched those games in delight and the atmosphere was magical at Celtic Park. However, they sold Victor Wanyama and Gary Hooper this offseason and were very unimpressive in qualifying. Wins are wins, and the dramatic comeback against Shakhter Karagandy shook Celtic Park to its foundation, but I can’t see a repeat performance against Barcelona. The quality isn’t there this year and the Scottish league is not going to keep them sharp. Ajax have been handed tough groups in recent years and this is another one you can’t really see them progressing from. Milan and Barcelona will attract all of the attention in this group, and as shown last year, if you forget about the lower seeded teams, they can beat you. But expect the two rivals to march through together.  

Prediction: 1) FC Barcelona 2) AC Milan 3) Ajax 4) Celtic