Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Saying Goodbye to AVB; Champions League Knockout Round, Second Legs (Part 1)

Sad. That is my feeling towards Andre Villas-Boas after Chelsea fired him following Saturday's 1-0 loss to West Brom. I knew it was coming - the performance was dreadful and things had gotten successively worse for AVB, especially over the past two weeks. From the beginning, it was a huge gamble for Chelsea to take, but I had thought he would be the best man for the job. However, the one quality that AVB really needed for the job was the one he lacked - the ability to manage the emotions of his players. At Porto, this was easy - most of his players were young, there are no glaring superstars (other than perhaps Hulk) and most of all, the team didn't lose a single game. Winning solves everything at any sport on any level. At Chelsea, AVB was faced with experienced, older professionals who were not keen on being told what to do by someone their own age (or slightly older). And when the results began to suffer, the problems quickly mounted, leading to his departure.

This isn't to say AVB's exit was entirely, or even mostly, his own fault. With the Chelsea job comes a lot of stress and expectation, and when those expectations are not met, the manager is quickly scrutinized. I think much of the blame falls on the players at Chelsea, because they refused to get behind the manager when he so desperately needed it. There have been too many simple mistakes made by players in the squad that have cost the team dearly, mistakes that had nothing to do with the manager. While he has improved throughout the season, David Luiz has made multiple, fundamental errors that have led to goals for the opposition, most glaringly Napoli's third goal in Italy. Raul Meireles has been consistently awful, showing none of his creative or finishing ability from his Liverpool days. Florent Malouda is a shadow of his former quality, lacking in pace and creativity. Fernando Torres has clearly been out of form for most of the season. John Terry's slip against Arsenal cost Chelsea that game. What was AVB supposed to do with these players? Make the decisions for Luiz? Get JT better boots? I feel there were many results that did not go Chelsea's way that had nothing to do with AVB's tactics or team selection.

In the end, AVB's appointment was a complete failure, and I'm just sad to see it end the way it did. I think Andre was honest the whole time - three weeks ago he said his job was safe. But after the results and news items of the past few weeks, he remarked he was "worried" for his job. After Saturday's loss to West Brom, it was easy to see the axe fall. I hope AVB gets a job at a club that is big, but not one of the huge clubs - a club like Leverkusen, or Lyon, or Lazio. He needs to leave England and move to a team that will not have the expectations of a Chelsea, but where he will have the opportunity to build a team. Where will Chelsea go now? I've always thought Mourinho would return, and the three favorites appear to be Mourinho, Guardiola, and Benitez. Whoever Chelsea hires will be a big name with a great deal of experience in European football.

On another note, this week also marks the first set of Champions League second legs. Barcelona and AC Milan should be in cruise control, while Lyon lead APOEL after a 1-0 win in France, and Zenit protect a 3-2 lead heading to Portugal. I think Arsenal will win the tie at the Emirates, but will not be able to overturn the four-goal deficit. Arsenal are in far better form now than for the first leg, but AC Milan are too experienced to allow Arsenal to go through. Barcelona should also go through easily, but there should be goals in the game for both sides. It will be very difficult for Leverkusen to score three times in Spain, and Barca should be able to coast.

Lyon head to Cyprus to face APOEL after dominating the first leg, but only securing a one-goal advantage. Before this tie, I believed APOEL's best chance of going through was to pack it in for the first leg, and attempt to win the tie in Cyprus. This is exactly what they have done - and while they are trailing, the deficit is far from insurmountable. I have backed this team throughout this year's Champions League, but this is still a difficult task. Lyon could have had three or four in France, and if they are able to score early, it will be very difficult for APOEL to go through. APOEL must come out and feed off their home crowd. I think the Cypriots have a chance, but Lyon's experience will carry them through to the next round.

Zenit and Benfica face off in Lisbon with the Russians holding a slight 3-2 advantage. The two away goals were huge for Benfica, but the result was rather harsh on Zenit. They had the better chances throughout the game, and both of Benfica's goals were the result of rather egregious goalkeeping errors. Benfica have also suffered a dip in form, taking just one point from their last three league games following the loss in Russia. That being said, I like Benfica to take care of this tie and move through. They are a fantastic side at home, and no longer have to contend with the freezing climate of St. Petersburg. Zenit have struggled in the Champions League away from home, drawing in Ukraine and Portugal and losing in Cyprus. Benfica have enough firepower to knock the Russians out in what should be a closely contested affair.

Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result

Arsenal (14) - AC Milan (9) : HOME WIN ; AC Milan to advance
Benfica (13) - Zenit St. Petersburg (12) : HOME WIN ; Benfica to advance
APOEL (NR) - Lyon (20) : DRAW ; Lyon to advance
Barcelona (1) - Bayer Leverkusen (NR) : HOME WIN ; Barcelona to advance

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