Three of the four ties last week went as projected, as Arsenal came up just short against AC Milan, Benfica cruised through against Zenit, and Barcelona hammered Leverkusen. Lionel Messi's five goals were one of the most impressive achievements in European football history, but I have to give some love to APOEL for holding off Lyon on penalties to go through to the quarterfinals. I've enjoyed this story quite a bit, but Wednesday's performance against Lyon was by far APOEL's best this season. The team usually adapts a defensive, counterattacking style, but they came out and attacked Lyon, got their goal, and were far more threatening than a side boasting numerous internationals. Despite one of main striker Ailton's worst games of the campaign, the Cypriots could have ended this tie in regulation time with some of the chances they had. The club deserves lots of praise as their story will continue for at least another set of fixtures. I would also like to point out (not to take away from APOEL's win) how awful Lyon were in this tie - first wasting numerous opportunities to grab a second in France, while showing no quality whatsoever in Cyprus. The only player who performed worse than Ailton in Cyprus was Lisandro, who made Torres's current form look prolific with his performance. Lyon are currently seventh in Ligue 1 and there could be a string of changes at the club this summer if things don't change quickly.
This week's games are more interesting than last week because all of the ties are still in the balance. Bayern host Basel trailing to a goal from Valentin Stocker, Inter are a goal down to Marseille going home to the San Siro, CSKA head to Spain to face Real Madrid after a 1-1 draw in Russia, and Chelsea host Napoli after falling 3-1 in Italy. I expect Real Madrid to take care of business at home, as they should be able to put two or three past the Russians. They were unlucky to draw in Moscow, and given the weather conditions and the timing of CSKA's goal, it still wasn't a bad result. Madrid should be through without a sweat. Inter and Marseille are two of the most out-of-form big clubs in Europe, With the latter having lost four straight games in the league. These teams are both unpredictable at this point but I think Inter are starting to improve and had the better chances in France. I'm going to back Inter to go through but I wouldn't but a dime on it.
The tie between Basel and Bayern is much more interesting than many would have thought as Basel hold the edge. But more shockingly, Basel outplayed Bayern and had the better chances to score in Switzerland, including two shots that hit the post in the first half. Bayern's 7-1 thumping of Hoffenheim on Saturday shows they have plenty of attacking power to overturn a 1-0 deficit. But this game could go a variety of ways. Basel could easily be overwhelmed early by Bayern and find themselves chasing the tie because Bayern can so easily capitalize on mistakes. However, Basel have not lost an away European match yet this year, drawing in tough venues at Benfica and Manchester United, while winning in Romania against Otelul. Bayern is a whole different animal, but there could be a deathly silence in the Allianz Arena if Basel secure an early away goal. There is a ton of pressure on Bayern to progress given that this year's final is in Munich. I'm going to stick with the Germans to go through, but there definitely is upset potential here from in-form Basel.
Wednesday's game in London also has a variety of possibilities for outcomes. After firing Andre Villas-Boas, Chelsea seem to be back on track with two straight wins with two clean sheets against Birmingham and Stoke. Napoli hammered Cagliari 6-3 on Friday and have won six straight matches heading to London. Chelsea's first leg performance was not poor in terms of build-up and possession, but it was riddled with individual errors that gifted Napoli their three goals and could have led to a fourth or fifth. Napoli are very much in form and it is difficult to see them not scoring against a Chelsea team that has struggled, to say the least, in defense. As mentioned above, Chelsea do boast two straight clean sheets and have won 2-0, 3-0 and 5-0 at home in the Champions League this season. There is plenty of hope in the Blues camp to go through and it will take a very positive effort to knock Napoli out. I think the possibility for that performance is much greater than it could appear at this point, and after watching Arsenal nearly overturn their deficit against Italian opposition, Chelsea still have a good chance of coming through.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
Bayern Munich (4) - FC Basel (24) : HOME WIN ; Bayern Munich to advance
Inter Milan (23) - Marseille (NR) : HOME WIN ; Inter Milan to advance
Chelsea (11) - Napoli (16) : HOME WIN ; Chelsea to advance
Real Madrid (2) - CSKA Moscow (20) : HOME WIN ; Real Madrid to advance
The draw for the quarterfinals and the potential matchups for the semi-finals takes place on Friday afternoon. Barcelona, AC Milan, Benfica and APOEL will be in the draw with the four teams that progress from this week's ties. This draw is open - meaning any team, regardless of group, country, etc. can be draw against each other. Barcelona are the clear team to avoid while APOEL will be considered the easy draw, but at this point in the competition, anything can happen. If Chelsea and Bayern do not overturn their respective deficits, there could be no English or German teams in the quarterfinals, giving Spain the chance to catch England for the top spot in the UEFA coefficient, and Italy to close the gap on Germany. It would be interesting. The Europa League draw is also on Friday so look out for that as well.
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