The third round of qualifying went nearly entirely as expected, the only surprise (to me) being Helsingborg's comprehensive win over Slask Wroclaw. The teams remaining all have a high level of quality - the only team left that I believe would be truly overmatched in the group stages would be Maribor of Slovenia. There is a great deal of experience and tradition existing in the clubs who have made it this far, which should make for another round of close ties.
The showcase match-up in the Non-Champions path is between Borussia Monchengladbach of Germany and Dynamo Kiev of Ukraine. Gladbach lost German international Marco Reus to Dortmund but acquired Luuk De Jong to lead the line, hoping to produce the same type of quality that culminated in a surprising fourth place finish in the Bundesliga. Dynamo Kiev are without the iconic Andriy Shevchenko, but have been a mainstay in European football for nearly their entire history. A tough win over Feyenoord in the last round showed Dynamo is keen to return to the group stages, while Gladbach are playing their first competitive matches of the season. This is a very tough draw for a team like Gladbach who are inexperienced in Europe, but they have the ability to pull through if they play a strong game in Germany.
For the Champions Route, I like all of the matchups to be close, although I am very confident in Dinamo Zagreb against Maribor. Zagreb have much more experience and despite being battered in losing all six group games last year, a return to that stage looks on the cards. I also expect Basel to get through; despite squeaking past Molde by the narrowest of margins, the Swiss side have much more talent and experience than Romanian counterparts CFR Cluj. The Romanian league has fallen off considerably because of a number of scandals and the quality has been substantially reduced.
The other three ties are all toss-ups. Anderlecht are favorites against AEL but you cannot ignore how Cypriot clubs have progressed to the group stage in three of the last four competitions. Anderlecht have a rich history in Belgium and in Europe, so this matchup features the most quality of the five ties. AEL have not conceded a goal in Europe yet this season (while Anderlecht put 11 goals past FK Ekranas in the last round) and could cause an upset against the Belgians. The pressure is completely on Celtic in their tie against Swedish champions Helsingborg, a matchup featuring two federations that used to dominate the continental game, but will now be reduced to just one representative in Europe's elite after this season. Celtic are Scottish football's lone strong representative, and the Swedes are a tricky opponent - Rangers were knocked out of the Champions League by Malmo in last year's edition. It is up to Celtic to uphold the dwindling reputation of the Scottish Premier League. The last matchup pits Belarussian champions BATE Borisov against debutant Israeli champs Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Both federations have made appearances in the group stage throughout the last few years, with BATE becoming the first Belarussian side to appear during the 2008-09 campaign. BATE are slight favorites, but this tie should be very tight - it could truly go either way.
Predictions:
FC Basel o/ CFR Cluj
Celtic o/ Helsingborg
Ironi Kiryat Shmona o/ BATE Borisov
AEL Limassol o/ Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb o/ Maribor
Udinese o/ Braga
Fenerbahce o/ Spartak Moscow
Malaga o/ Panathinaikos
Borussia Monchengladbach o/ Dynamo Kyiv
LOSC Lille o/ FC Copenhagen
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