2012-13 UEFA Champions League Qualifying - Playoff Round

The third round of qualifying went nearly entirely as expected, the only surprise (to me) being Helsingborg's comprehensive win over Slask Wroclaw. The teams remaining all have a high level of quality - the only team left that I believe would be truly overmatched in the group stages would be Maribor of Slovenia. There is a great deal of experience and tradition existing in the clubs who have made it this far, which should make for another round of close ties.

The showcase match-up in the Non-Champions path is between Borussia Monchengladbach of Germany and Dynamo Kiev of Ukraine. Gladbach lost German international Marco Reus to Dortmund but acquired Luuk De Jong to lead the line, hoping to produce the same type of quality that culminated in a surprising fourth place finish in the Bundesliga. Dynamo Kiev are without the iconic Andriy Shevchenko, but have been a mainstay in European football for nearly their entire history. A tough win over Feyenoord in the last round showed Dynamo is keen to return to the group stages, while Gladbach are playing their first competitive matches of the season. This is a very tough draw for a team like Gladbach who are inexperienced in Europe, but they have the ability to pull through if they play a strong game in Germany.

For the Champions Route, I like all of the matchups to be close, although I am very confident in Dinamo Zagreb against Maribor. Zagreb have much more experience and despite being battered in losing all six group games last year, a return to that stage looks on the cards. I also expect Basel to get through; despite squeaking past Molde by the narrowest of margins, the Swiss side have much more talent and experience than Romanian counterparts CFR Cluj. The Romanian league has fallen off considerably because of a number of scandals and the quality has been substantially reduced.

The other three ties are all toss-ups. Anderlecht are favorites against AEL but you cannot ignore how Cypriot clubs have progressed to the group stage in three of the last four competitions. Anderlecht have a rich history in Belgium and in Europe, so this matchup features the most quality of the five ties. AEL have not conceded a goal in Europe yet this season (while Anderlecht put 11 goals past FK Ekranas in the last round) and could cause an upset against the Belgians. The pressure is completely on Celtic in their tie against Swedish champions Helsingborg, a matchup featuring two federations that used to dominate the continental game, but will now be reduced to just one representative in Europe's elite after this season. Celtic are Scottish football's lone strong representative, and the Swedes are a tricky opponent - Rangers were knocked out of the Champions League by Malmo in last year's edition. It is up to Celtic to uphold the dwindling reputation of the Scottish Premier League. The last matchup pits Belarussian champions BATE Borisov against debutant Israeli champs Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Both federations have made appearances in the group stage throughout the last few years, with BATE becoming the first Belarussian side to appear during the 2008-09 campaign. BATE are slight favorites, but this tie should be very tight - it could truly go either way.

Predictions:

FC Basel o/ CFR Cluj
Celtic o/ Helsingborg
Ironi Kiryat Shmona o/ BATE Borisov
AEL Limassol o/ Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb o/ Maribor

Udinese o/ Braga
Fenerbahce o/ Spartak Moscow
Malaga o/ Panathinaikos
Borussia Monchengladbach o/ Dynamo Kyiv
LOSC Lille o/ FC Copenhagen

2012-13 UEFA Champions League Qualifying - Third Round Preview

The Champions League is one of my favorite sports competitions because it is practically all year-round. The first qualifying round started on July 3, after the final of last year's edition was only May 19. I did not do extensive previews on the first two rounds because many of the clubs are very small from the smaller European countries, and I don't know much about them. But now that we are at the third round, the clubs are big enough to have international recognition. Most of the ties at this point are very tight - last year, twelve of the fifteen aggregate scores were decided by two goals or less, and the other three were decided by three goals.

The Champions Route features two clubs who participated in the group stages last year (BATE Borisov, Dinamo Zagreb), as well as a club who reached the knockout stages (FC Basel). F91 Dudelange are the surprise inclusion, as the Luxembourg club defeated Austrian giants Red Bull Salzburg on away goals in the second round. They take on Maribor from Slovakia, who are far from unbeatable, but you feel as if the Cinderella run ends for Dudelange. There are a number of fixtures between sides that could hold their own in the group stages. The tie between Cypriot champions AEL Limassol and Serbians Partizan Belgrade should be very tight. AEL have some quality in their team and look to follow the footsteps of fellow Cypriot side APOEL's run to the quarterfinals in last year's competition. Partizan have featured in the group stages throughout their history and narrowly lost to Belgian side Genk at this stage last year. Partizan definitely have the edge in experience, but AEL have a bit more quality. I expect this tie to be decided by a goal or less. The feature tie is between Molde FK of Norway and FC Basel of Switzerland. Molde are led by Manchester United legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, while Basel defeated Manchester United to reach the knockout stages last year. Despite losing playmaker Xherdan Shaqiri to Bayern Munich, Basel have the rest of their playmakers back, with the added experience of last year's victories. I expect Basel to win the tie, but this will be one of the higher quality match-ups that we see this early in the competition.

The Non-Champions Route is less appetizing, but I do think the tie between Motherwell and Panathinaikos is worth looking at. Scottish football's reputation is on the line after the collapse of Rangers, and Motherwell take their spot in the Champions League after finishing third in the SPL last year. The drop in quality in the league, however, is astounding, as Motherwell finished 31 points behind champions Celtic. It is worth noting that only one team (Hearts) have finished in the top 2 in the SPL in the last seventeen years. Panathinaikos are back into qualifying after another second-place finish, and look to avenge last year's disappointing loss to Odense. After suffering serious financial problems, the Greens are looking to join rivals Olympiacos by qualifying for the group stages. I expect Panathinaikos to expose the general weakness of the SPL by easily defeating Motherwell over two legs.

Full Predictions:

Maribor (SVK) o/ F91 Dudelange (LUX)
BATE (BLR) o/ Debrecen (HUN)
CFR Cluj (ROM) o/ Slovan Liberec (CZE)
Anderlecht (BEL) o/ Ekranas (LTH)
Slask Wroclaw (POL) o/ Helsingborg (SWE)
Dinamo Zagreb (CRO) o/ Sheriff Tiraspol (MOL)
Celtic (SCO) o/ HJK Helsinki (FIN)
FC Basel (SUI) o/ Molde FK (NOR)
Ironi Kiryat Shmona (ISR) o/ Neftchi Baku (AZE)
AEL Limassol (CYP) o/ Partizan Belgrade (SRB)
Fenerbahce (TUR) o/ FC Vaslui (ROM)
Panathinaikos (GRE) o/ Motherwell (SCO)
FC Copenhagen (DEN) o/ Club Brugge (BEL)
Dynamo Kiev (UKR) o/ Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED)