A quick run-down of this week's games - I expect most of these ties to be very close. Some teams have already been eliminated, but most have it all to play for and are fighting to stay alive. It makes for some aggressive, tight football that usually culminates in more goals as teams get more desperate for points. With the quality of the teams in this competition, this could be the best matchday of the group stage.
HEADLINER: Juventus v. Chelsea
Juventus host Chelsea trailing both the Blues and Shakhtar (who visit Nordsjaelland) by a point. Juve have a much greater sense of urgency to win this game, while Chelsea would be happy with a point, as a very winnable home fixture against Nordjaelland awaits. A loss and a Shakhtar win would eliminate the Old Lady ahead of next matchday's showdown in Ukraine. Chelsea must not play this fixture too carefully, as a loss and a Shakhtar win would set them to be eliminated with a draw in Donetsk between the two. I expect Chelsea to play on the counter but also to show some conviction going forward, especially considering how fragile their defense has been without John Terry. Juventus gave them a ton of trouble at Stamford Bridge and it may behoove the Blues to start off on the front foot rather than waiting for the Italians to come at them. I expect lots of chances given Chelsea's attacking prowess and their messy defense. An early goal would force Juventus to attack with much more force, which could be provided by in-form attackers Juan Mata and Eden Hazard. Juventus have stepped up their goal-scoring recently as well, scoring ten goals in their two games prior to Saturday. This is the game to watch of the week.
Prediction: Juventus 2-2 Chelsea
UPSET ALERT: Anderlecht v. AC Milan
Anderlecht gave Milan all they could handle on Matchday 1, leaving with a point in a 0-0 draw. Milan have been in peril all season long, and the issues within the club only seem to be escalating. The Belgians are just a point behind and a victory would put them in pole position to reach the knockout stage. Milan desperately need something to turn the club's fortunes around, and their only win in the competition so far came away from home (in Russia). I don't see it. This looks like a lost season for Milan, with the only bright spot being the emergence of Stephan El Shaarawy as a legitimate goal scorer. After last matchday's win over Zenit, Anderlecht could be this year's Pot 4 team to go through. Anderlecht have a number of experienced players who will not be afraid to attack the struggling Milan defense. Christian Abbiati has come under particular scrutiny for his role in their concession of five goals in the last two games. Anderlecht should be rocking for this game. Upset alert on full blast for the Italians.
Prediction: Anderlecht 1-0 Milan
GROUP D WILL BE INTERESTING IF...
Manchester City and Ajax both win at home, against Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund respectively. Dubbed the "group of death" of this season's competition, the matches have failed to disappoint; however, the dramatics have, as City and Ajax both need wins today to have any chance of going through. Unfortunately, I can't see it happening. City have been miserable in Europe this season and now must beat arguably the best team in the world to have any chance. Last weekend's thrashing of Aston Villa will provide some spark but there is an obvious difference in quality and organization between Villa and a Mourinho-coached Madrid. Ajax played well against City, and are vastly underrated - if they'd finished the job and won at the Etihad, this group would have a whole different complexion. But Dortmund have been very strong in Europe this year on both sides of the field, so it will be very difficult for the Dutch. It looks like we're heading for a boring final matchday, as I expect Madrid and Dortmund to frustrate their opponents and acquire the necessary results to all but send them through. I give Ajax a better chance of grabbing a win and spicing up the group, but two draws could be on the cards for this week's Group D fixtures.
Predictions: Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid, Ajax 0-0 Dortmund
Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses):
BATE - Lille : DRAW
Valencia - Bayern Munich (4) : DRAW
Juventus (7) - Chelsea (3) : DRAW
FC Nordjaelland - Shakhtar Donetsk : AWAY WIN
Spartak Moscow - Barcelona (2) : DRAW
Benfica (21) - Celtic (25) : HOME WIN
Zenit (15) - Malaga (14) : HOME WIN
Anderlecht - AC Milan (18) : HOME WIN
Galatasaray - Manchester United (6) : HOME WIN
CFR Cluj - Braga : AWAY WIN
Manchester City (5) - Real Madrid (1) : DRAW
Ajax Amsterdam - Borussia Dortmund (8) : DRAW
Dynamo Kiev - PSG (9) : AWAY WIN
FC Porto (23) - Dinamo Zagreb : HOME WIN
Arsenal (12) - Montpellier : HOME WIN
Schalke (10) - Olympiakos : HOME WIN
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
UEFA Champions League - Matchday 4
Last matchday featured a number of upset specials. The early upset darling, BATE, were run over by Valencia to extend their point-less run against Spanish opposition to six games. However, Dortmund knocked off Real Madrid, Schalke won at the Emirates (boom), Ajax dismantled Manchester City and Shakhtar beat Chelsea. The biggest shock to me was Ajax's win, not because of the result itself but because of the performance. They were better for nearly the whole match, as City's goal came against the run of play. Rather than falter, Ajax responded with three second half goals to stun the City hierarchy. One point from three is not good enough for Roberto's men - I don't care who you're playing.
Matchday 4 is a reverse of Matchday 3 - so it's the same matchups but at the opposite team's home field. For some ties, it makes an even better matchup, as AC Milan and Malaga should be very tight, as will Dynamo Kiev and Porto, among others. However, the better sides that played away from home last week should have a much easier go of it at home - Valencia, City, and Benfica should all come away with three points this week. Lots of points to think about, though.
HEADLINER: Schalke 04 v. Arsenal
I'm not going to choose a game from Group D this week (although I know Real Madrid and Dortmund should be a great game) because I think you can take a lot more from this tie. Arsenal are in a perilous state at the current time and in much need of a victory to retake first place in Group B and settle concerns from fans. Schalke are performing very well at the moment and should have nine points in the group, but conceded late against Montpellier. After winning at the Emirates, Schalke will have nothing to fear against the Gunners, who have scored just seven goals in six Premier League games away from home. Despite having the best defensive record in the Premier League, Arsenal's defense has proven mistake-prone during the last few years, and I expect nothing different in Germany. Schalke are rotating the squad quite a bit recently to keep players fresh, but should have most of their first team on the field Tuesday. Expect the Germans to come away with a minimum of a point but more likely take all three points to send Arsenal further into the mire. An Olympiakos win could threaten a knockout stage appearance as well.
Prediction: Schalke 2-1 Arsenal
UPSET ALERT: Braga v. Manchester United
Manchester United are on upset alert again in Portugal where the Red Devils have historically struggled. Braga have been in the best run of their club's history, but have dropped two of three so far in the Champions League. They moved through United's defense easily in the first half before capitulating in the second during one of United's vintage comebacks. United struggled in Romania and still came out with a win, but this game sets up as a trap game after big domestic wins over Chelsea and Arsenal, as well as a comfortable lead at the top of Group H. Braga are not at the level of their domestic rivals but can compete with bigger clubs, reaching the Europa League final two years ago after defeating Liverpool, Dynamo Kiev and Benfica before losing narrowly to Porto in the final. United may take this game too lightly and their defense is not strong enough to grind out a result in a difficult place to play. Braga could grab a point in this contest and could maybe nick a win with a solid performance.
Prediction: Braga 1-1 Manchester United
OLD RIVALS: Celtic v. Barcelona
Celtic and Barcelona face off again in Glasgow after the Catalans snatched a 2-1 victory in injury time after going a goal down in the first half. It was a surprisingly close encounter, as many of Celtic's fans could hardly believe they were in the game for so long. Unfortunately for the Hoops, the result means the performance was all for nothing, although they still do hold second place in Group G. That type of performance is very difficult to duplicate against Barcelona, and although Celtic are historically very tough at Celtic Park, Barcelona should be a huge favorite in this one. The goals could be flying in left and right but I expect a more subdued game. Celtic will set up to strike on the counter while Barcelona typically dominate possession. I like to root for the underdog but it would take an even better performance for Celtic to grab a share of the spoils on Wednesday. Barcelona won't take them so lightly this time.
Prediction: Celtic 0-2 Barcelona
Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses):
Real Madrid (1) - Borussia Dortmund (8) : HOME WIN
AC Milan (18) - Malaga (14) : DRAW
Schalke (10) - Arsenal (12) : HOME WIN
Manchester City (5) - Ajax Amsterdam : HOME WIN
PSG (9) - Dinamo Zagreb : HOME WIN (potentially very ugly)
Olympiakos - Montpellier : DRAW
Dynamo Kiev - FC Porto (23) : HOME WIN
Anderlecht - Zenit (15) : AWAY WIN
Celtic (25) - Barcelona (2) : AWAY WIN
Valencia - BATE : HOME WIN
Juventus (7) - FC Nordsjaelland : HOME WIN
Bayern Munich (4) - LOSC Lille : HOME WIN (also potentially very ugly)
Braga - Manchester United (6) : DRAW
Chelsea (3) - Shakhtar Donetsk : HOME WIN
CFR Cluj - Galatasaray : AWAY WIN (no logical reasoning, just instinct)
Benfica (21) - Spartak Moscow : HOME WIN
Matchday 4 is a reverse of Matchday 3 - so it's the same matchups but at the opposite team's home field. For some ties, it makes an even better matchup, as AC Milan and Malaga should be very tight, as will Dynamo Kiev and Porto, among others. However, the better sides that played away from home last week should have a much easier go of it at home - Valencia, City, and Benfica should all come away with three points this week. Lots of points to think about, though.
HEADLINER: Schalke 04 v. Arsenal
I'm not going to choose a game from Group D this week (although I know Real Madrid and Dortmund should be a great game) because I think you can take a lot more from this tie. Arsenal are in a perilous state at the current time and in much need of a victory to retake first place in Group B and settle concerns from fans. Schalke are performing very well at the moment and should have nine points in the group, but conceded late against Montpellier. After winning at the Emirates, Schalke will have nothing to fear against the Gunners, who have scored just seven goals in six Premier League games away from home. Despite having the best defensive record in the Premier League, Arsenal's defense has proven mistake-prone during the last few years, and I expect nothing different in Germany. Schalke are rotating the squad quite a bit recently to keep players fresh, but should have most of their first team on the field Tuesday. Expect the Germans to come away with a minimum of a point but more likely take all three points to send Arsenal further into the mire. An Olympiakos win could threaten a knockout stage appearance as well.
Prediction: Schalke 2-1 Arsenal
UPSET ALERT: Braga v. Manchester United
Manchester United are on upset alert again in Portugal where the Red Devils have historically struggled. Braga have been in the best run of their club's history, but have dropped two of three so far in the Champions League. They moved through United's defense easily in the first half before capitulating in the second during one of United's vintage comebacks. United struggled in Romania and still came out with a win, but this game sets up as a trap game after big domestic wins over Chelsea and Arsenal, as well as a comfortable lead at the top of Group H. Braga are not at the level of their domestic rivals but can compete with bigger clubs, reaching the Europa League final two years ago after defeating Liverpool, Dynamo Kiev and Benfica before losing narrowly to Porto in the final. United may take this game too lightly and their defense is not strong enough to grind out a result in a difficult place to play. Braga could grab a point in this contest and could maybe nick a win with a solid performance.
Prediction: Braga 1-1 Manchester United
OLD RIVALS: Celtic v. Barcelona
Celtic and Barcelona face off again in Glasgow after the Catalans snatched a 2-1 victory in injury time after going a goal down in the first half. It was a surprisingly close encounter, as many of Celtic's fans could hardly believe they were in the game for so long. Unfortunately for the Hoops, the result means the performance was all for nothing, although they still do hold second place in Group G. That type of performance is very difficult to duplicate against Barcelona, and although Celtic are historically very tough at Celtic Park, Barcelona should be a huge favorite in this one. The goals could be flying in left and right but I expect a more subdued game. Celtic will set up to strike on the counter while Barcelona typically dominate possession. I like to root for the underdog but it would take an even better performance for Celtic to grab a share of the spoils on Wednesday. Barcelona won't take them so lightly this time.
Prediction: Celtic 0-2 Barcelona
Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses):
Real Madrid (1) - Borussia Dortmund (8) : HOME WIN
AC Milan (18) - Malaga (14) : DRAW
Schalke (10) - Arsenal (12) : HOME WIN
Manchester City (5) - Ajax Amsterdam : HOME WIN
PSG (9) - Dinamo Zagreb : HOME WIN (potentially very ugly)
Olympiakos - Montpellier : DRAW
Dynamo Kiev - FC Porto (23) : HOME WIN
Anderlecht - Zenit (15) : AWAY WIN
Celtic (25) - Barcelona (2) : AWAY WIN
Valencia - BATE : HOME WIN
Juventus (7) - FC Nordsjaelland : HOME WIN
Bayern Munich (4) - LOSC Lille : HOME WIN (also potentially very ugly)
Braga - Manchester United (6) : DRAW
Chelsea (3) - Shakhtar Donetsk : HOME WIN
CFR Cluj - Galatasaray : AWAY WIN (no logical reasoning, just instinct)
Benfica (21) - Spartak Moscow : HOME WIN
UEFA Top 25 - November 6
With the Champions League coming up it's time for a new Top 25. There's a degree of stability at the top and a somewhat major drop-off after number 8 (Dortmund) and even more so after 11 (Atletico). Teams 12-25 are good but are not on the same level as the top 11. Look for this gap to increase in the table as the season wears on.
Distribution: England 6, Italy 4, Spain 4, France 3, Germany 3, Portugal 2, Russia 2, Scotland 1
1 (1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2 (2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3 (3) Chelsea FC (ENG)
4 (4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester City FC (ENG)
6 (7) Manchester United FC (ENG)
7 (6) Juventus FC (ITA)
8 (8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9 (12) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
10 (13) Schalke 04 (GER)
11 (10) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
12 (9) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (11) SSC Napoli (ITA)
14 (14) Malaga CF (ESP)
15 (15) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
16 (16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17 (19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
18 (17) AC Milan (ITA)
19 (18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
20 (NR) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
21 (20) Everton FC (ENG)
22 (21) SL Benfica (POR)
23 (NR) FC Porto (POR)
24 (23) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
25 (25) Celtic FC (SCO)
Out of rankings: 22) SS Lazio (ITA), 24) BATE Borisov (BLR)
Notes:
1-10: Chelsea, Bayern, and Juventus all lost their first ties of the season to high-quality rivals Manchester United, Inter, and Bayer Leverkusen respectively. Curiously, all of those losses came at home.. I really like what I see from Schalke, despite the recent loss to lowly Hoffenheim, where they rested a number of starters. Their historic win at Arsenal was a mark of their own quality rather than Arsenal's obvious shortcomings. What was a hot start for a talented team is shaping into a season where they can contend in both the Champions League and Bundesliga for a long while.. PSG seem to be finally putting it together, going top of Ligue 1, while bouncing back to take second in Group A. Many doubt PSG's credentials despite their influx of talent, likening their rise to Manchester City, citing domestic success but struggles in Europe. The teams were built differently but you can certainly see the similarities in thrusting a bunch of skilled players together too quickly. PSG will struggle against more experienced clubs.. As for City, they are still struggling in Europe a year later. Rock bottom of Group D, it would take a near miracle to take them through. Ajax took them apart in Amsterdam, and this team just does not feel as potent as last year's champions. Fulham and Everton have both scored more goals in the Premier League.. Barcelona have been stunningly consistent this season result-wise, despite defensive lapses against Deportivo, Sevilla and Spartak. Their attacking force is the best in the world and can carry them to another domestic crown. The European title is a different story. Poor defensive positioning and a lack of offensive diversity cost them dearly against Chelsea.
11-25: Let's start off with the current mess that is Arsenal FC. There was a similar panic last year when Arsenal were hammered by United and showed no cutting edge after selling Fabregas and Nasri. However, this year has the feeling of 09-10 Liverpool more so than last year's third place finish. Is it time for Wenger to go? I don't think so - but if you do remove him you'd better have a big-name replacement. Wenger has made questionable subs and team selections this season, but the real problem is the players on the field. Andre Santos does not belong in the Premier League and Giroud has been awful in a Gunners shirt, just to name a few. Whether these decisions are the scorned board's or Wenger's are hard to tell. It is a difficult time for Arsenal. The Theo Walcott situation only makes it worse.. After over a year in the dark, Inter are officially back. The 3-1 win at Juventus (which pulled them within a point of the Old Lady) was a great performance, especially after being down less than twenty seconds into the game. This is a reloaded side under Andrea Stramaccioni, although their "old guard" of Milito, Cambiasso, Samuel, and Zanetti are still around. With rivals AC Milan still struggling and Napoli beginning to come back down to earth, Inter could be the second-best team in Italy by the end of the season.. Porto reenter the ranks as well after surging to the top of Group A as well as the Portuguese Liga on goal difference over Benfica. The goals are flying in and they are in a good position to put last year's embarrassing group stage exit to bed. The win over PSG was most impressive, as domestically, Porto and Benfica are rarely challenged nowadays. The emergence of Braga is the only threat to change that.. Is there a big club more under the radar than CSKA? After a shock loss to AIK in the Europa League playoffs, CSKA have reeled off ten wins out of eleven in what is arguably the most talented Russian Premier League of all time. Despite the run, big spenders Anzhi and Zenit are still right on their tail, just one and three points behind respectively. CSKA still have a lot of work to do, but can keep their players fresher, as the other two sides are both participating in European competition.
Distribution: England 6, Italy 4, Spain 4, France 3, Germany 3, Portugal 2, Russia 2, Scotland 1
1 (1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2 (2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3 (3) Chelsea FC (ENG)
4 (4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester City FC (ENG)
6 (7) Manchester United FC (ENG)
7 (6) Juventus FC (ITA)
8 (8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9 (12) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
10 (13) Schalke 04 (GER)
11 (10) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
12 (9) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (11) SSC Napoli (ITA)
14 (14) Malaga CF (ESP)
15 (15) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
16 (16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17 (19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
18 (17) AC Milan (ITA)
19 (18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
20 (NR) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
21 (20) Everton FC (ENG)
22 (21) SL Benfica (POR)
23 (NR) FC Porto (POR)
24 (23) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
25 (25) Celtic FC (SCO)
Out of rankings: 22) SS Lazio (ITA), 24) BATE Borisov (BLR)
Notes:
1-10: Chelsea, Bayern, and Juventus all lost their first ties of the season to high-quality rivals Manchester United, Inter, and Bayer Leverkusen respectively. Curiously, all of those losses came at home.. I really like what I see from Schalke, despite the recent loss to lowly Hoffenheim, where they rested a number of starters. Their historic win at Arsenal was a mark of their own quality rather than Arsenal's obvious shortcomings. What was a hot start for a talented team is shaping into a season where they can contend in both the Champions League and Bundesliga for a long while.. PSG seem to be finally putting it together, going top of Ligue 1, while bouncing back to take second in Group A. Many doubt PSG's credentials despite their influx of talent, likening their rise to Manchester City, citing domestic success but struggles in Europe. The teams were built differently but you can certainly see the similarities in thrusting a bunch of skilled players together too quickly. PSG will struggle against more experienced clubs.. As for City, they are still struggling in Europe a year later. Rock bottom of Group D, it would take a near miracle to take them through. Ajax took them apart in Amsterdam, and this team just does not feel as potent as last year's champions. Fulham and Everton have both scored more goals in the Premier League.. Barcelona have been stunningly consistent this season result-wise, despite defensive lapses against Deportivo, Sevilla and Spartak. Their attacking force is the best in the world and can carry them to another domestic crown. The European title is a different story. Poor defensive positioning and a lack of offensive diversity cost them dearly against Chelsea.
11-25: Let's start off with the current mess that is Arsenal FC. There was a similar panic last year when Arsenal were hammered by United and showed no cutting edge after selling Fabregas and Nasri. However, this year has the feeling of 09-10 Liverpool more so than last year's third place finish. Is it time for Wenger to go? I don't think so - but if you do remove him you'd better have a big-name replacement. Wenger has made questionable subs and team selections this season, but the real problem is the players on the field. Andre Santos does not belong in the Premier League and Giroud has been awful in a Gunners shirt, just to name a few. Whether these decisions are the scorned board's or Wenger's are hard to tell. It is a difficult time for Arsenal. The Theo Walcott situation only makes it worse.. After over a year in the dark, Inter are officially back. The 3-1 win at Juventus (which pulled them within a point of the Old Lady) was a great performance, especially after being down less than twenty seconds into the game. This is a reloaded side under Andrea Stramaccioni, although their "old guard" of Milito, Cambiasso, Samuel, and Zanetti are still around. With rivals AC Milan still struggling and Napoli beginning to come back down to earth, Inter could be the second-best team in Italy by the end of the season.. Porto reenter the ranks as well after surging to the top of Group A as well as the Portuguese Liga on goal difference over Benfica. The goals are flying in and they are in a good position to put last year's embarrassing group stage exit to bed. The win over PSG was most impressive, as domestically, Porto and Benfica are rarely challenged nowadays. The emergence of Braga is the only threat to change that.. Is there a big club more under the radar than CSKA? After a shock loss to AIK in the Europa League playoffs, CSKA have reeled off ten wins out of eleven in what is arguably the most talented Russian Premier League of all time. Despite the run, big spenders Anzhi and Zenit are still right on their tail, just one and three points behind respectively. CSKA still have a lot of work to do, but can keep their players fresher, as the other two sides are both participating in European competition.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)