2012-13 UEFA Champions League - Quarterfinal Preview

PSG v BARCELONA

How PSG wins: The multitude of talent that PSG owners brought in this summer, which has failed to gel at times, comes together as a team and plays with concerted discipline. Ibrahimovic backs up his billing as a top-five striker in the world and the Parisians counter-attack Barca relentlessly. The other attacking pieces help expose a weak Barca defense and create an advantage to hold for the second leg in Spain.

How BARCELONA wins: They play their game. Barca have proven nearly impossible to stop when they can piece their passing play together, and the story is no different here. They are effective in breaking down a tight PSG defense and produce a strong result in France, while finishing off the French side at the Nou Camp.

Key players: CB Thiago Silva (PSG); CM Xavi (Barcelona)

The holding midfield and defense are always critical against Barcelona, and as one of the top central defenders in the world, Thiago Silva will be the main man in charge of shutting down Barca’s tiki-taka attacking game. Silva has both the pace and tactical know-how to hold their very potent offense at bay. Xavi will be pulling the strings for the Spaniards, and he will continue to be their most important player. Even with his increasing age, Xavi is the heart of this team and he will need to play well against a very talented PSG defensive front.

Who will advance: Barcelona. PSG have loads of talent and could be contenders in the future – for the time being it is likely too soon. Barca have loads more experience in this competition and this would still be early for them to go out. To beat the Catalans, it takes not only talent but discipline, something PSG have not exhibited this year. I do believe in Ancelotti as a coach, but it may be another year or two before we can put PSG with the elite teams in Europe. After last round’s scare against Milan, expect Barca to come out firing and avoid the drama of having to come back in their home leg. This should be a tight tie and if PSG’s defense can hold, they certainly have the attacking prowess to trouble Barca. However, they may not see enough of the ball to take control in this tie and provide a consistent threat in the attacking third. Expect Barcelona to make it through a tough test from the Parisians. 

Prediction: Barcelona 3-1 PSG

REAL MADRID v GALATASARAY

How REAL MADRID wins: Real have superior talent and coaching so they are big favorites to go through. They do not fall behind and build pressure on themselves, and their large array of attacking options are too much for Gala to handle. 

How GALATASARAY wins: The least recognizable name left in the competition, Gala play with nothing to lose. While the club may not be well-known in Europe, their star players prove the quality of their reputation and take the game to Real. They use the same counter-attacking game Dortmund used to beat the Spaniards and smash-and-grab a series of results to sneak through.

Key players: FW Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid); CM Wesley Sneijder (Galatasaray)

Ronaldo is always the focus when he’s on the field, and his impeccable form will be nearly impossible for Gala’s defense to handle. Even if Gala focus their attention on him, Ronaldo is a good enough player to feed his teammates, who have been shaky at times in front of goal. It’s up to him to put it on a plate if he is unable to score himself. Sneijder will be in charge of the Gala midfield and his form has returned since his move to Turkey. Expect him to create plenty of opportunities for Drogba and Yilmaz against his former employers. 

Who will advance: Real Madrid. This tie is interesting because Gala pack a bigger punch than many would think – Yilmaz is joint leading scorer, Drogba helped Chelsea to a Champions League crown last year, and Sneijder has returned after a bad ending to his spell at Inter. This team is not to be underestimated, and their road form has been good in Europe. If they can take the game to Real in Madrid, they will face a difficult task in front of the raucous fans in Turkey. Mourinho and Real have plenty of experience at this stage and will be well-prepared. I don’t expect this to be a non-contest but Real should make it to the semi-finals while avoiding the drama of their tie with Manchester United. 

Prediction: Real Madrid 4-2 Galatasaray

MALAGA v BORUSSIA DORTMUND

How MALAGA wins: Malaga continue their stellar defensive play in Europe and stifle Dortmund’s attacking triangle. They will need to play cautiously but they have proven their quality in winning their group and eliminating Porto. They take a lead in Spain and hold off a German onslaught in Dortmund to continue their magical run in their first Champions League appearance.

How BORUSSIA DORTMUND wins: Dortmund have been able to break down every team they have played in Europe, and although Malaga boast one of the continent’s best defensive records, Dortmund’s force of Lewandowski, Gotze, and Reus offer versatility that few defenses can stop. Dortmund take a patient approach and assure the tie can be won at home, limiting Malaga’s counter-attacking opportunities to rare long balls down the wings. 

Key players: FW Isco (Malaga); FW Robert Lewandowski (Borussia Dortmund)

Isco has been fantastic for Malaga, and although he may leave for greener pastures in the summer, he cares for the club and its fans. He will be a threat, especially in Spain, and will be the player for the Spaniards to keep an eye on. Lewandowski is charged with leading his team’s line against the Malaga back line, and he will need to be on top of his game. Chances will not be often, and chances that he squandered against Shakhtar cannot be afforded in this tie. 

Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund. Dortmund are the better team and this is the stage where you rarely see the “cinderellas” move on. With the Bundesliga long gone, Dortmund are fully focused on their European football and are fully healthy, which is especially important during this time of the year. Malaga’s run has been hugely helpful for the club financially, and they will not back down easily. I think the red card to Porto in last round’s second leg played a large role in Malaga’s advancement, and while I believe they belong in the same conversation as the other clubs still alive, they are just a shade lacking in the attacking third. Dortmund should be able to create enough chances, especially at home, to battle their way through to the semi-finals. 

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Malaga

BAYERN MUNICH v JUVENTUS

How BAYERN MUNICH wins: Bayern shake off their scare against Arsenal and bring the game that brought them a 9-2 victory over Hamburg at the weekend. They continue to be motivated by last year’s disappointment and methodically break down a stellar Juventus defense. They use their home advantage to build a lead to bring to Turin, where they hold off Juve in a classic encounter. 

How JUVENTUS wins: Juve continue their excellent defensive play and their offense continues to be a threat. They play cautiously in Munich but find a way to score away from home, then use their away goal to pile all of the pressure on Bayern. Superior midfield play and finishing take Juve through narrowly to the semis. 

Key players: LW Frank Ribery (Bayern Munich); CM Claudio Marchisio (Juventus)

All of Bayern’s attacking players will be in the spotlight but Ribery will be especially important. His pace is tough for any defense to handle and he can both unlock the wings to create scoring chances for himself while sending balls into the box for Gomez and Madzukic to get a head on. Marchisio has been one of the strongest links of Juve’s midfield, and he will be in charge of helping Pirlo control the middle third of the field. In a matchup with very little give, Marchisio must help Juve take advantage of their strength all season – possession in central midfield.

Who will advance: Juventus. Juventus look massively underrated by the odds in this tie (Bayern are 1/2 to go through) and have not conceded in five straight Champions League ties. After Bayern’s last performance in the Champions League, I am hardly confident in their abilities against a much tougher opponent. I must allow some slack for complacency due to the large lead, but I would have expected Bayern to handle an Arsenal squad that has lacked much conviction during this season away from the Emirates. I don't think this is much of an upset - Juventus are champions of Italy and have not lost a game in Europe this season (5 W, 3 D). This should be the tightest tie of the round, and both sides to be evenly prepared for it. I think Juve will just barely take it with their advantage of the second-leg being at home.

Prediction: Juventus 2-1 Bayern Munich

Dominant Spain: Reflections on the UEFA Champions League Round of 16

The dramatics of the round of 16 are over, and the quarterfinal draw sets us up for some more great football at the beginning of April. Seven of the eight sides I expected to go through made it, with Porto falling out after a 2-0 loss in Spain. Some facts on the ties followed by some of my own reflections:

• All four Spanish sides faced first-leg deficits, and three of the four were able to overturn them. Only Valencia fell short. Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Malaga took three of the eight quarterfinal berths.
• There are no British sides in the last eight. Manchester United, Arsenal, and Celtic were all dumped out, and the English Premier League must take a look at its self-appointed title of best league in the world.
• Five of the eight ties were decided by a goal or less. Only one tie, Celtic-Juventus, was completely free of drama, as Juve cruised through. Despite facing deficits away from home, Arsenal and Valencia both came close to snatching a place in the next round.
• Six of the eight group winners advanced to the quarterfinals.
• Burak Yilmaz continued his rich vein of scoring with two goals in two games against Schalke, but Cristiano Ronaldo kept up with two against United. Both are atop the scoring charts with eight goals, while Lionel Messi is just one behind.

The Decision

The talking point of the second leg of Real Madrid-Manchester United was the referee rather than the play, and the decision by referee Cuneyt Cakir to send off Nani is quite debatable. At first glance it looks very harsh, and I must say, I was shocked when the red card came out. In big games, referees must get card, foul, and penalty kick decisions (especially) correct, or it could decide the tie. Whether the decision was right or wrong, it did decide the tie, as Real, who were rocking after United opened the scoring, scored two goals and won the tie more calmly than they would have guessed. It leaves United to wonder what might have been - but there's two particular things fans must look at. One, the decision to start Nani in the first place was an odd one - he had not been in the side as much this year and United have plenty of attacking options. If there was a player in the squad who had the potential to be sent off, would you not think of Nani? His personality has never been defined as tempered. Secondly, Robin Van Persie blew this tie for United. We have seen RVP has one of the Premier League's elite over the past two seasons, but he had at least two clear-cut opportunities (I think a third should certainly be included) over the two games that any striker, not to mention one of his level, should be putting away. Even Torres might have been able to stick one of those in the net. For a player that has been so key to United's domestic dominance, he came up small against Madrid.

The Comeback

Barcelona's comeback against AC Milan was historic, but not very surprising. After watching Chelsea employ the park-the-bus strategy against Barcelona with great success, there are two keys to defending the Catalans. First, you must defend as a team and make Barcelona work hard, and out of their element, to get goals. Second, you must get a stroke of luck. In the second leg, Milan did not defend as a team. Xavi and Messi in particular were allowed far too much space in midfield. For the first goal, Messi was allowed far too much space and he was able to just walk through the front of the box before dispatching his shot in the top left corner. Milan were also caught in possession numerous times when they could have cleared the ball, with the third goal coming as a result of holding the ball too long. As for luck, there was none of it. M'Baye Niang struck the post on a breakaway that would have forced Barca to score three goals in fifty minutes to go through, and Barca's second goal came minutes later on a Messi shot that went just through Philippe Mexes' legs. It was simply not to be for Milan.

The Nearly

Trailing Bayern Munich 3-1 after a drubbing at the Emirates, Arsenal went to Germany looking for a miracle. They almost found it, and with some more ruthless finishing, the Gunners would have secured maybe the most improbable quarterfinal place in the history of the Champions League. Instead it's just another "almost" for Arsene Wenger's men, and while the effort will be applauded by their supporters, Arsenal must now focus on hauling themselves back into the top four. Bayern, who were so impressive in London, now face a daunting task against Juventus, who have hit a solid run of form. This performance was widely criticized by the higher ranks of the club, and while Bayern are surely better than this quality, they can ill-afford that type of result in the first leg against Juve.

Full preview of the quarterfinal round coming next week - stay tuned. The match-ups are:

Malaga vs. Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray
PSG vs. Barcelona
Bayern vs. Juventus

This week is all international fixtures as the focus goes back to the World Cup next year. Enjoy!

UEFA Champions League Round of 16: First Leg Reflections

The first legs were fairly predictable - Milan pulled a huge upset in knocking off Barcelona, but the other results were foreseeable. I'd like to apologize for my analysis of that tie - I forgot that Mario Balotelli is cup-tied and therefore unable to play in the Champions League for Milan. Without him, I would have given Milan even less of a chance, but they were spectacular at the San Siro and deserve their lead.

Some quick notes on the first leg of each tie:

Galatasaray 1-1 Schalke: The game was pretty even as expected - both sides had their chances to win it in the second half, but both seemed content with the draw. Schalke will be the happier side as they have the edge going home, but this is still up for grabs. Gala played well on the continent in the group stage, winning two and losing one at Manchester United (which was a close game). Schalke are favorites to go through but they are still an out-of-form side, and Galatasaray have the weapons to make them pay. Should be another tight one in Gelsenkirchen.

Celtic 0-3 Juventus: Eventually Cinderella must fall, and Celtic did so emphatically as Juve calmly swept aside the Bhoys in Glasgow. It was a ruthless performance from Juventus, hitting Celtic on the counter while absorbing loads of pressure in the beginning of the second half. You can argue that if Efe Ambrose plants his header into the back of Buffon's net rather than into his arms, the match ends differently - but the team going through would still be the same. Juve are the better team by a solid margin and will ease through during the second leg.

Arsenal 1-3 Bayern Munich: Not too much of a surprise here. Arsenal have been poor this season and Bayern's impressive Bundesliga record reflected directly onto this result. The Germans dominated the game for all but about twenty minutes, and the one goal they conceded was the result of a defensive mix-up. Arsenal were poor all over the field, failing to close down attackers or build on their passing game. It will be all Bayern in Munich, and if Wenger gets his tactics wrong, this could end up being ugly.

Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 Borussia Dortmund: The number of goals was a bit shocking but the result was not - Shakhtar are very tough to beat in Donetsk and could have won this game if not for the late header from Hummels. With the two away goals and the stronger side, Dortmund should be headed through, but Shakhtar are very strong, even without Willian. I almost wish this tie had come up later in the competition, because these two teams have the quality to go into the deeper rounds. But only one can reach the quarters, and that should be Dortmund.

AC Milan 2-0 Barcelona: The shocker for the round goes to Milan, as they dismantled a Barcelona unit dubbed the best in the world by many (including myself). This was no smash-and-grab; Milan defended superbly and rarely gave Barca any space, while they were able to take their chances on the counter against that vulnerable back line. Barcelona's back line is their clearest weak link, but because they hold possession so well, few teams are able to expose it. Allegri played the game perfectly and with a bit of fortune and clinical finishing, Milan have a great chance to go through. This tie is far from over - Barcelona can score two goals back in no time - but they will certainly be nervous if the first half ends 0-0 (see Inter: 2010). I am still going to back Barcelona to go through but if Milan can nick another goal on the counter, it will be very difficult.

Real Madrid 1-1 Manchester United: The game went as expected, but the result did not reflect the game's flow. Madrid dominated most of the game while both sides had chances, and Real face an uphill climb heading to Manchester. Madrid have had problems getting results all year, and this was another case-and-point display - they give up a silly goal on a set piece, looked very rickety at the back, while routinely fashioning chances to score when in the attacking third. This tie sets up nicely because there could have been more goals from both sides in Spain, and neither team really sets up to defend. The second leg should be as dramatic as the first.

Valencia 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain: Pretty routine for the French side, although they did offer Valencia a glimmer of hope in conceding the late goal. What Zlatan was doing only Zlatan knows, as he will play no part in the second leg after his senseless sending off. PSG are still in prime position and are unlikely to unravel at home, but an early goal could change that. Still believe the Parisians will be heading through here.

FC Porto 1-0 Malaga: There are defensive games that excite viewers because of the tactics applied to the game, and there are defensive games that are boring. This one was of the latter denomination. Malaga set up to defend and did so, and did so well barring the one error that allowed Joao Moutinho to score the critical opener in this tie. This one is still in the balance but that was a huge goal for Porto, and one that could carry them through. Malaga have played much more attacking football at home than away so the second leg should be much more exciting than the first. Stay tuned.

2012-13 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 - Preview

The Champions League is one of the few sporting events I can maintain full attention on despite my team being eliminated. This is where it really gets fun. After the group stage, group winners are drawn against group runners-up, and the two sides play two games, one home game apiece. The aggregate winner goes through to the next round, and if there is a tie, away goals and then a shootout determines the winner.

This is typically the last round where you see less-heralded clubs still alive, although this year all of the clubs are fairly recognizable names. There will be some lopsided scores, but typically the ties are close - last year five of the eight ties were decided by a goal or less. Expect the same this year - the "minnows" are Turkish powerhouse Galatasaray and Scottish giants Celtic, versus last year's Cypriot cinderella APOEL and Swiss champs Basel. Those sides are weaker than Galatasaray and Celtic, yet both pulled off 1-0 wins at home last year, so this year is all set up to be extremely tight.

Note: This preview is for the whole aggregate, not just the first leg. The team listed first is playing the first leg at home.

GALATASARAY v SCHALKE

How GALATASARAY wins: Galatasaray showcase the form that has taken them top of the Super Lig and overpower an out-of-form Schalke. New signings Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba provide crucial experience and creativity that boost the level of the whole side. Yilmaz keeps up his scoring touch and helps send the Turks through with a couple of well-taken goals.

How SCHALKE wins: The Germans use their class to overcome their lack of form and knockout Galatasaray as Schalke's front three are a constant threat. They shrug off their disastrous domestic season and clear their minds against European opposition, returning to the form that made them so tough last year. The signing of Michel Bastos boosts the attack of an already potent side and opportunities are plentiful for Schalke.

Key players: FW Burak Yilmaz (Galatasaray), FW Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (Schalke)

As joint-leading scorer in the competition, Yilmaz will be expected to provide the finishing touch for the Turks. His two goals at the weekend show his form this season and he is facing the fifth-worst defense in Germany. His influence will be key to Galatasaray's attack, as it is unknown what role Drogba will play at this point. Huntelaar is the opposing marksman, but his strong goalscoring record last season has not continued. He hasn't scored for Schalke since the end of November and his slump has coincided with Schalke's troubles. Huntelaar will need to return to his best for his side to have hopes of going through. 

Who will advance: Galatasaray. Galatasaray's transfer moves have shown their ambition to succeed on the continent, but this was a good team to begin with. The added experience may or may not help, but neither Drogba are Sneijder are the personality type that could ruin a locker room, so these moves are unlikely to hurt. Schalke are enduring an awful run of results, and are currently at a troubling tenth place in the league. Lewis Holtby left early for Tottenham and now Huntelaar has an eye problem, so we are looking at a weaker, out-of-form squad than last year's third-place Bundesliga side. The first-place finish in Group B would seem to suggest that Schalke can put their domestic troubles aside, but things have gone worse as the season continues. I'm not convinced that Galatasaray have enough talent as a whole to make a deep run this year, but out-of-form Schalke looks ripe for the picking.

Prediction: Galatasaray 4-2 Schalke

CELTIC v JUVENTUS

How CELTIC wins: Celtic plays with the same coolness and discipline they displayed against Barcelona in the group stage, limiting Juventus to attempts from distance. They steal a victory in front of a raucous crowd at Celtic Park and hang on in Italy to stun the defending Serie A champs. With the SPL all but locked up and without the threat of Rangers, the Hoops can focus their best efforts into making a run in Europe, and their fresher players take the game to a tired Juve side mired in a close domestic race with Napoli.

How JUVENTUS wins: The Old Lady come to Scotland and show off their superior quality, controlling the game and dominating possession. They shrug off the tough atmosphere in the first leg and play at the tempo that led them to an undefeated league season last year. Juve take their chances and avoid being frustrated by a side that will set up to defend. As favorites, the Italians quickly dash thoughts of another upset and cruise through to the quarterfinals.

Key players: GK Fraser Forster (Celtic), CM Andrea Pirlo (Juventus)

Forster was superb in the group stage and he will be put to the test again by Juve, likely early and often. To pull the upset, it is always important for the goalkeeper to be in top form, and Forster will be relied upon to keep Juve off of the board and keep his side in the tie as long as possible. On the other side, Pirlo will be pulling the strings behind Juventus's attack, and as one of the top creative midfielders in the world, he will be quite the challenge to Celtic's defense. Expect Juve's chance creation (and conversion) to be heavily correlated to Pirlo's play.

Who will advance: Juventus. Celtic's run has been a fairy tale story, as the Scottish champions went toe-to-toe with Barcelona and grabbed the second qualifying spot in Group G. Scottish football was in peril after the collapse of Rangers and Celtic have certainly done well to represent their country in this competition. We rarely see the minnows of the competition get past this round, and while Celtic are no minnows in Scotland, they are on the continental stage with a seasoned Juventus side as their opponents. It is difficult to see them going through. Juve should not overlook the Scots because they would be made to pay, but they are the stronger side by a good margin and should find themselves in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Juventus 4-2 Celtic

ARSENAL v BAYERN MUNICH

How ARSENAL wins: The Gunners use their spectacular European home record to take a lead to Germany where they avoid another away capitulation and hold off Bayern. Walcott, Giroud and Podolski take their chances and Arsenal's possession play unsettles Bayern, who are sitting high above the Bundesliga and have not faced many tough tests. The patched up defense holds up enough to keep them in it but their superior attacking play ultimately takes them through.

How BAYERN MUNICH wins: Bayern uses their attacking threats to crush Arsenal's leaky defense.  Their defensive unit, which has conceded just seven goals in twenty-one league games, keeps out a Gunners side already searching for goals a bit lately. Bayern use their experience and feed from the disappointment of last year's defeat to catapult them into the last eight.

Key players: FW Theo Walcott (Arsenal), FW Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich)

Walcott is Arsenal's most important player and we don't even know where he will play yet - he could be in the center forward position or out on the wing with Giroud in the middle. Walcott has been inconsistent for Arsenal but has improved this season, especially when placed in a further forward attacking position. He needs to put away his chances for Arsenal to go through. Muller has been a key player in Bayern's side for a few years now, and he will be troublesome for Arsenal's defense. Bayern will look to get Muller and Gomez in behind the center backs, while both players are also aerial threats. Muller's attacking play will be hard to stop.

Who will advance: Bayern Munich. These two huge clubs are at different points right now - Arsenal are in a bit of a transition and are fighting to qualify for this competition next year, while Bayern were in the final last year and hold a huge lead in the Bundesliga. Bayern have been in the final in two of the past three years (lost both) and after last year's huge disappointment in the final, they will be dying to avenge their defeat. Arsenal have been improving, but they face a huge problem in defense as Monreal is cup-tied and Kieran Gibbs is still injured. That leaves moving Thomas Vermaelen to left-back, which is not his optimal position, or playing the heavily-criticized Andre Santos, which is hopefully not in Wenger's plans. He thankfully is not, as he was sent to Gremio on loan. Either way, it's a back four that is unprepared to deal with the attacking prowess of this Bayern side. There are threats all over the field and I don't see Arsenal being able to keep up during a two-legged tie.

Prediction: Bayern 6-3 Arsenal

SHAKHTAR DONETSK v BORUSSIA DORTMUND

How SHAKHTAR DONETSK wins: Shakhtar's dominant domestic form carries over to the Champions League. The Ukrainians show how they made it out of a tough group by putting constant pressure on Dortmund in Donetsk and they hold on with another solid away performance in the second leg. Their defense does not allow Dortmund's creative players any space in the attacking third and limit giveaways from the back.

How BORUSSIA DORTMUND wins: As perhaps the best team in the tournament so far, Dortmund prove their remaining doubters wrong by shrugging off a rugged Shakhtar side. Gotze, Lewandowski and Reus are brilliant in attack and provide a constant threat both through the middle and down the wings.Their large deficit to Bayern in the Bundesliga allows them to keep the lineup fresh for European games and display their best football.

Key players: FW Luiz Adriano (Shakhtar Donetsk), FW Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund)

Adriano will be relied upon more after Willian, who led the team in scoring in the Champions League, left for Russia. Adriano is a talented forward and has the pace and power to danger Dortmund's goal. The Germans have a number of important attackers, but Reus may be the best - his addition to the team was a large factor in their first-place finish in Group D. He is pacy and can pick out passes for his superb teammates on the front line. Shakhtar will have to deny Reus space to maneuever if they are to keep Dortmund at bay.

Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund. Shakhtar may not be a household name everywhere in Europe, but this is a very, very strong team. They have won seventeen of eighteen games domestically and came very close to winning a group containing the Italian, English and Danish champions. However, they sold Willian to Anzhi in January, and his loss will be felt in this tie. They are no longer as potent up top and do not pose as much of a threat to Dortmund as they did to Juve and Chelsea. His absence will not only be felt in the attacking third, but in defense, as Dortmund will spend more time with the ball than they would have before. Shakhtar are not a one-man show, but Dortmund will exploit their new weakness. The Germans have proven to be a top side and now have the big game experience to go through. Expect to see Dortmund in the last eight, but it won't be easy.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Shakhtar Donetsk

AC MILAN v BARCELONA

How AC MILAN wins: The attacking players find space against Barca's occasionally shaky back line, take their chances and constantly pressure the Spaniards. Barcelona miss a number of easier scoring chances and Milan make them pay at the other end. Allegri sets them up to counter attack and the team is clinical when given any glimmer of light.

How BARCELONA wins: The best team in the world plays their game - the Catalans control possession, the chances, and the scoreline while knocking out Milan for the second year in a row. Barca limit counter attacking opportunities and hold the ball enough to frustrate Milan's myriad of attacking players. The defense limits mistakes and does not allow any space in midfield, suffocating their opponents in typical fashion.

Key players: FW Mario Balotelli (AC Milan), FW Lionel Messi (Barcelona)

You never truly know which Balotelli you will get on a game-to-game (or day-to-day) basis. It is indisputable that when he is in the mood, he is one of the top strikers on the continent and has the ability to create a goal out of nothing. But as easily as Milan could get a spectacular goal, they could get a red card - Mario's temperament is always an issue and could be a deciding factor. We all know Messi is Barcelona's star and his goal scoring record is superb in Europe. Against tougher opposition, Barcelona struggle without Messi's goals, as his career-long barren spell against Chelsea cost them dearly last year. Messi should find space against this back line and if he displays his normal ability, Barca should find themselves going through. 

Who will advance: Barcelona. Barcelona are the most dominant team in the world right now and it would be foolish to think they would trip at this hurdle. It is not an impossible task for Milan but their weakness over the course of the season has broadcast the lack of depth in their squad after last summer's departures. Milan had a better team last year and were still beaten without too much trouble, so while you cannot completely rule them out because of the individual star power, it is difficult to see them going through. Couple that with the killer form Barca has been in this year, and all signs point to another early exit for the Italians.

Prediction: Barcelona 6-2 AC Milan

REAL MADRID v MANCHESTER UNITED

How REAL MADRID wins: Real's superior midfield takes over the tie, breaking up United's link up play and holding large periods of possession. Ozil and Ronaldo dominate the attacking third, creating chances and scoring goals against United's gaping back four. Varane continues his strong form and helps pacify any defensive concerns for Jose Mourinho.

How MANCHESTER UNITED wins: United's attacking threats control the chances and take advantage of mistakes from Real's midfield. Rooney and Van Persie run rampant up top and keep the pressure off of the back four and nervy goalie situation. The midfield does just enough to allow the attackers to counter and goals are coming from everyone in the side.

Key players: GK Diego Lopez (Real Madrid), FW Robin Van Persie (Manchester United)

Iker Casillas will miss the tie due to injury so Real were able to sign Diego Lopez as an emergency replacement. Lopez is a formidable replacement, but does not have near the class of Casillas. Even though Casillas has been at less than his best this year, there will be a huge spotlight on Real's goal, and any goalkeeping error from either side could be especially costly. Van Persie is United's marksman, and his stellar form from last year has showed no signs of stopping since moving to Manchester. We all know how he can finish, and for United to go through, he will have to be on top of his game.

Who will advance: Real Madrid.  I simply don't believe that United's defense can keep Real under five goals in two games. This will be a very tense tie, especially considering the big name matchup, and is probably the hardest to call of the eight. The injury to Casillas adds an extra wrinkle as United will need to score, and without their world class goalie, Real are weaker at the back than prior years. United are stronger up front with Van Persie, but Group H was so weak that I can't even give too much merit to their improved European performance this year. Fergie's boys have been weak against Spanish opposition - they were completely outplayed in two Champions League finals against Barcelona, and were crushed in the Europa League last year by Athletic Bilbao. The speedier Spanish midfield play gives English teams trouble, and despite Madrid being undermanned and not on top form, they have the edge.

Prediction:  Real Madrid 5-4 Manchester United

VALENCIA v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

How VALENCIA wins: Valencia immediately put the pressure on PSG and force their opponents to chase the tie from its beginning. They take advantage of mistakes from their opponents as Soldado and Jonas link up to create good opportunities on the counter. Their attacking play pins PSG back and their opponents succumb to the high expectations surrounding their summer spending spree.

How PSG wins: A team that has still showed occasional signs of a lack of chemistry has everything start to click. PSG have a more talented side and if the players continue the form that took them to the top of Ligue 1, their class should take them through. Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi terrorize an average Valencia back line while France's best defensive side holds off attacks with ease.

Key players: FW Roberto Soldado (Valencia), FW Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Paris Saint-Germain)

Soldado has been the brightest spot for a down Valencia team and it will be up to him to finish when they are able to attack. An experienced player who has been capped internationally six times, Soldado will be a threat, especially early in the first leg as Valencia look to jump in front at home. Zlatan is one of the best strikers in the world, if not the best - his skills are unlike anyone on the earth. He has twenty goals in twenty league games for PSG this season, fitting seamlessly into his new side. Valencia will be hard-pressed to keep him from netting at least two goals over the tie.

Who will advance: Paris Saint-Germain. PSG's spending spree this summer was not a waste - the side are top of the league and the parts are starting to fit together. It is hard for a team to gel together quickly, so expectations on this team should be tempered. But signs are good for this team to make a deep run if they can keep all of their men on the field (five red cards already this season in Ligue 1). Valencia have played well in Europe despite poor domestic form, but this team does not have enough experience to knock off PSG. Valencia are traditionally tough at home and this tie will not be a breeze for PSG, but expect the French club to go through with little drama.

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 Valencia

FC PORTO v MALAGA

How PORTO wins: Porto's substantial home advantage shows against inexperienced Malaga. Martinez, who has been a seamless replacement for Hulk having scored nineteen goals in eighteen league games, continues to score when he wants. Porto build up an advantage at home and make it difficult for Malaga to build momentum in the tie.

How MALAGA wins: The club could be the biggest surprise in the knockout round and as group winners, they continue to impress. La Liga's best defensive team clamps down on Porto, who have continually lost their attacking players to other clubs in recent years. Their strong away record sets them up well to win the tie in Spain and continue to the quarters.

Key players: FW Jackson Martinez (FC Porto), MF Isco (Malaga)

Martinez has stepped into the side after Hulk's move to Zenit and has shown no sign of relinquishing his place. He has a great record in the league but has not been as consistent in Europe. It will be up to him to break down one of Europe's toughest defenses. After signing a new contract with Malaga, Isco has continued to produce the type of displays that earned him interest from other clubs. His brace at the weekend took Malaga to another win, so he will be a key figure during both legs.

Who will advance: FC Porto. This is the other tie where I can't name the favorite - both sides are playing well but are comparatively under the radar. Malaga's biggest talking point has been their debt rather than their play, and Porto have been lacking in star power since Hulk and Axel Witsel moved to Zenit this summer. Porto always seem to reload seamlessly, and this year is no different - they recorded thirteen points in Group A and are joint-top in the Portuguese league with Benfica. Malaga have done very well to get to this point, but the loss of Nacho Monreal could be crucial in this tie. It will be tight, there will not be many chances, but Porto look a little better at the moment and may just barely squeak through.

Prediction: FC Porto 2-1 Malaga

UEFA Champions League - Matchday 5

A quick run-down of this week's games - I expect most of these ties to be very close. Some teams have already been eliminated, but most have it all to play for and are fighting to stay alive. It makes for some aggressive, tight football that usually culminates in more goals as teams get more desperate for points. With the quality of the teams in this competition, this could be the best matchday of the group stage.

HEADLINER: Juventus v. Chelsea

Juventus host Chelsea trailing both the Blues and Shakhtar (who visit Nordsjaelland) by a point. Juve have a much greater sense of urgency to win this game, while Chelsea would be happy with a point, as a very winnable home fixture against Nordjaelland awaits. A loss and a Shakhtar win would eliminate the Old Lady ahead of next matchday's showdown in Ukraine. Chelsea must not play this fixture too carefully, as a loss and a Shakhtar win would set them to be eliminated with a draw in Donetsk between the two. I expect Chelsea to play on the counter but also to show some conviction going forward, especially considering how fragile their defense has been without John Terry. Juventus gave them a ton of trouble at Stamford Bridge and it may behoove the Blues to start off on the front foot rather than waiting for the Italians to come at them. I expect lots of chances given Chelsea's attacking prowess and their messy defense. An early goal would force Juventus to attack with much more force, which could be provided by in-form attackers Juan Mata and Eden Hazard. Juventus have stepped up their goal-scoring recently as well, scoring ten goals in their two games prior to Saturday. This is the game to watch of the week.

Prediction: Juventus 2-2 Chelsea

UPSET ALERT: Anderlecht v. AC Milan

Anderlecht gave Milan all they could handle on Matchday 1, leaving with a point in a 0-0 draw. Milan have been in peril all season long, and the issues within the club only seem to be escalating. The Belgians are just a point behind and a victory would put them in pole position to reach the knockout stage. Milan desperately need something to turn the club's fortunes around, and their only win in the competition so far came away from home (in Russia). I don't see it. This looks like a lost season for Milan, with the only bright spot being the emergence of Stephan El Shaarawy as a legitimate goal scorer. After last matchday's win over Zenit, Anderlecht could be this year's Pot 4 team to go through. Anderlecht have a number of experienced players who will not be afraid to attack the struggling Milan defense. Christian Abbiati has come under particular scrutiny for his role in their concession of five goals in the last two games. Anderlecht should be rocking for this game. Upset alert on full blast for the Italians.

Prediction: Anderlecht 1-0 Milan

GROUP D WILL BE INTERESTING IF...

Manchester City and Ajax both win at home, against Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund respectively. Dubbed the "group of death" of this season's competition, the matches have failed to disappoint; however, the dramatics have, as City and Ajax both need wins today to have any chance of going through. Unfortunately, I can't see it happening. City have been miserable in Europe this season and now must beat arguably the best team in the world to have any chance. Last weekend's thrashing of Aston Villa will provide some spark but there is an obvious difference in quality and organization between Villa and a Mourinho-coached Madrid. Ajax played well against City, and are vastly underrated - if they'd finished the job and won at the Etihad, this group would have a whole different complexion. But Dortmund have been very strong in Europe this year on both sides of the field, so it will be very difficult for the Dutch. It looks like we're heading for a boring final matchday, as I expect Madrid and Dortmund to frustrate their opponents and acquire the necessary results to all but send them through. I give Ajax a better chance of grabbing a win and spicing up the group, but two draws could be on the cards for this week's Group D fixtures.

Predictions: Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid, Ajax 0-0 Dortmund

Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses): 

BATE - Lille : DRAW
Valencia - Bayern Munich (4) : DRAW
Juventus (7) - Chelsea (3) : DRAW
FC Nordjaelland - Shakhtar Donetsk : AWAY WIN
Spartak Moscow - Barcelona (2) : DRAW
Benfica (21) - Celtic (25) : HOME WIN
Zenit (15) - Malaga (14) : HOME WIN
Anderlecht - AC Milan (18) : HOME WIN
Galatasaray - Manchester United (6) : HOME WIN
CFR Cluj - Braga : AWAY WIN
Manchester City (5) - Real Madrid (1) : DRAW
Ajax Amsterdam - Borussia Dortmund (8) : DRAW
Dynamo Kiev - PSG (9) : AWAY WIN
FC Porto (23) - Dinamo Zagreb : HOME WIN
Arsenal (12) - Montpellier : HOME WIN
Schalke (10) - Olympiakos : HOME WIN

UEFA Champions League - Matchday 4

Last matchday featured a number of upset specials. The early upset darling, BATE, were run over by Valencia to extend their point-less run against Spanish opposition to six games. However, Dortmund knocked off Real Madrid, Schalke won at the Emirates (boom), Ajax dismantled Manchester City and Shakhtar beat Chelsea. The biggest shock to me was Ajax's win, not because of the result itself but because of the performance. They were better for nearly the whole match, as City's goal came against the run of play. Rather than falter, Ajax responded with three second half goals to stun the City hierarchy. One point from three is not good enough for Roberto's men - I don't care who you're playing.

Matchday 4 is a reverse of Matchday 3 - so it's the same matchups but at the opposite team's home field. For some ties, it makes an even better matchup, as AC Milan and Malaga should be very tight, as will Dynamo Kiev and Porto, among others. However, the better sides that played away from home last week should have a much easier go of it at home - Valencia, City, and Benfica should all come away with three points this week. Lots of points to think about, though.

HEADLINER: Schalke 04 v. Arsenal

I'm not going to choose a game from Group D this week (although I know Real Madrid and Dortmund should be a great game) because I think you can take a lot more from this tie. Arsenal are in a perilous state at the current time and in much need of a victory to retake first place in Group B and settle concerns from fans. Schalke are performing very well at the moment and should have nine points in the group, but conceded late against Montpellier. After winning at the Emirates, Schalke will have nothing to fear against the Gunners, who have scored just seven goals in six Premier League games away from home. Despite having the best defensive record in the Premier League, Arsenal's defense has proven mistake-prone during the last few years, and I expect nothing different in Germany. Schalke are rotating the squad quite a bit recently to keep players fresh, but should have most of their first team on the field Tuesday. Expect the Germans to come away with a minimum of a point but more likely take all three points to send Arsenal further into the mire. An Olympiakos win could threaten a knockout stage appearance as well.

Prediction: Schalke 2-1 Arsenal

UPSET ALERT: Braga v. Manchester United

Manchester United are on upset alert again in Portugal where the Red Devils have historically struggled. Braga have been in the best run of their club's history, but have dropped two of three so far in the Champions League. They moved through United's defense easily in the first half before capitulating in the second during one of United's vintage comebacks. United struggled in Romania and still came out with a win, but this game sets up as a trap game after big domestic wins over Chelsea and Arsenal, as well as a comfortable lead at the top of Group H. Braga are not at the level of their domestic rivals but can compete with bigger clubs, reaching the Europa League final two years ago after defeating Liverpool, Dynamo Kiev and Benfica before losing narrowly to Porto in the final. United may take this game too lightly and their defense is not strong enough to grind out a result in a difficult place to play. Braga could grab a point in this contest and could maybe nick a win with a solid performance.

Prediction: Braga 1-1 Manchester United

OLD RIVALS: Celtic v. Barcelona

Celtic and Barcelona face off again in Glasgow after the Catalans snatched a 2-1 victory in injury time after going a goal down in the first half. It was a surprisingly close encounter, as many of Celtic's fans could hardly believe they were in the game for so long. Unfortunately for the Hoops, the result means the performance was all for nothing, although they still do hold second place in Group G. That type of performance is very difficult to duplicate against Barcelona, and although Celtic are historically very tough at Celtic Park, Barcelona should be a huge favorite in this one. The goals could be flying in left and right but I expect a more subdued game. Celtic will set up to strike on the counter while Barcelona typically dominate possession. I like to root for the underdog but it would take an even better performance for Celtic to grab a share of the spoils on Wednesday. Barcelona won't take them so lightly this time.

Prediction: Celtic 0-2 Barcelona

Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses): 

Real Madrid (1) - Borussia Dortmund (8) : HOME WIN
AC Milan (18) - Malaga (14) : DRAW
Schalke (10) - Arsenal (12) : HOME WIN
Manchester City (5) - Ajax Amsterdam : HOME WIN
PSG (9) - Dinamo Zagreb : HOME WIN (potentially very ugly)
Olympiakos - Montpellier : DRAW
Dynamo Kiev - FC Porto (23) : HOME WIN
Anderlecht - Zenit (15) : AWAY WIN
Celtic (25) - Barcelona (2) : AWAY WIN
Valencia - BATE : HOME WIN
Juventus (7) - FC Nordsjaelland : HOME WIN
Bayern Munich (4) - LOSC Lille : HOME WIN (also potentially very ugly)
Braga - Manchester United (6) : DRAW
Chelsea (3) - Shakhtar Donetsk : HOME WIN
CFR Cluj - Galatasaray : AWAY WIN (no logical reasoning, just instinct)
Benfica (21) - Spartak Moscow : HOME WIN

UEFA Top 25 - November 6

With the Champions League coming up it's time for a new Top 25. There's a degree of stability at the top and a somewhat major drop-off after number 8 (Dortmund) and even more so after 11 (Atletico). Teams 12-25 are good but are not on the same level as the top 11. Look for this gap to increase in the table as the season wears on.

Distribution: England 6, Italy 4, Spain 4, France 3, Germany 3, Portugal 2, Russia 2, Scotland 1

1 (1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2 (2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3 (3) Chelsea FC (ENG)
4 (4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester City FC (ENG)
6 (7) Manchester United FC (ENG)
7 (6) Juventus FC (ITA) 
8 (8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9 (12) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
10 (13) Schalke 04 (GER)
11 (10) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
12 (9) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (11) SSC Napoli (ITA)
14 (14) Malaga CF (ESP)
15 (15) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
16 (16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17 (19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
18 (17) AC Milan (ITA) 
19 (18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
20 (NR) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
21 (20) Everton FC (ENG)
22 (21) SL Benfica (POR)
23 (NR) FC Porto (POR)
24 (23) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
25 (25) Celtic FC (SCO)

Out of rankings: 22) SS Lazio (ITA), 24) BATE Borisov (BLR)

Notes:

1-10: Chelsea, Bayern, and Juventus all lost their first ties of the season to high-quality rivals Manchester United, Inter, and Bayer Leverkusen respectively. Curiously, all of those losses came at home.. I really like what I see from Schalke, despite the recent loss to lowly Hoffenheim, where they rested a number of starters. Their historic win at Arsenal was a mark of their own quality rather than Arsenal's obvious shortcomings. What was a hot start for a talented team is shaping into a season where they can contend in both the Champions League and Bundesliga for a long while.. PSG seem to be finally putting it together, going top of Ligue 1, while bouncing back to take second in Group A. Many doubt PSG's credentials despite their influx of talent, likening their rise to Manchester City, citing domestic success but struggles in Europe. The teams were built differently but you can certainly see the similarities in thrusting a bunch of skilled players together too quickly. PSG will struggle against more experienced clubs.. As for City, they are still struggling in Europe a year later. Rock bottom of Group D, it would take a near miracle to take them through. Ajax took them apart in Amsterdam, and this team just does not feel as potent as last year's champions. Fulham and Everton have both scored more goals in the Premier League.. Barcelona have been stunningly consistent this season result-wise, despite defensive lapses against Deportivo, Sevilla and Spartak. Their attacking force is the best in the world and can carry them to another domestic crown. The European title is a different story. Poor defensive positioning and a lack of offensive diversity cost them dearly against Chelsea.

11-25: Let's start off with the current mess that is Arsenal FC. There was a similar panic last year when Arsenal were hammered by United and showed no cutting edge after selling Fabregas and Nasri. However, this year has the feeling of 09-10 Liverpool more so than last year's third place finish. Is it time for Wenger to go? I don't think so - but if you do remove him you'd better have a big-name replacement. Wenger has made questionable subs and team selections this season, but the real problem is the players on the field. Andre Santos does not belong in the Premier League and Giroud has been awful in a Gunners shirt, just to name a few. Whether these decisions are the scorned board's or Wenger's are hard to tell. It is a difficult time for Arsenal. The Theo Walcott situation only makes it worse.. After over a year in the dark, Inter are officially back. The 3-1 win at Juventus (which pulled them within a point of the Old Lady) was a great performance, especially after being down less than twenty seconds into the game. This is a reloaded side under Andrea Stramaccioni, although their "old guard" of Milito, Cambiasso, Samuel, and Zanetti are still around. With rivals AC Milan still struggling and Napoli beginning to come back down to earth, Inter could be the second-best team in Italy by the end of the season.. Porto reenter the ranks as well after surging to the top of Group A as well as the Portuguese Liga on goal difference over Benfica. The goals are flying in and they are in a good position to put last year's embarrassing group stage exit to bed. The win over PSG was most impressive, as domestically, Porto and Benfica are rarely challenged nowadays. The emergence of Braga is the only threat to change that.. Is there a big club more under the radar than CSKA? After a shock loss to AIK in the Europa League playoffs, CSKA have reeled off ten wins out of eleven in what is arguably the most talented Russian Premier League of all time. Despite the run, big spenders Anzhi and Zenit are still right on their tail, just one and three points behind respectively. CSKA still have a lot of work to do, but can keep their players fresher, as the other two sides are both participating in European competition.

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 - Preview

After a three week break, the Champions League is back with a number of scintillating matchups on the cards. The way the first two rounds have gone, it is simply must-see.

This year we have another fourth pot team making some noise, in the form of BATE Borisov. After last matchday's shocking 3-1 win over Bayern Munich, they must now be seriously considered as contenders to make the knockout round. A quick background on BATE - their name is pronounced bah-tay; their home stadium holds 5,402 people from the town of Barysaw, a town in central Belarus of about 150,000 people; this is their 14th consecutive year in European competition; they have won six straight domestic titles and are seven points clear this season. A mini-giant, so to speak, despite being located in a relatively small city. They haven't had much success in Europe, but clearly now they are in great shape, as they not only have been winning games, but playing with much more fancied and skilled opponents. Valencia will be another test this week, but this isn't the strong Valencia side of recent years, and they have been dreadful away from home. I'm not as optimistic still on BATE as I was with APOEL last year, but I think at the very least, they will take a point from the contest. This game is just as big - a loss along with two of their last three ties being away from home would leave their chances in the balance. It's nice to see another underdog doing well though - a reminder that money doesn't completely run the football world. Still, just an "almost."

HEADLINER: Borussia Dortmund v. Real Madrid

Again, it has to be Group D, as Dortmund hosts Real Madrid, making the group 3/3 in my headliner choices. The two-time German champions have been much stronger this year in the Champions League in both performances and results. They have struggled a bit domestically, but the quality is there to make this a great game to watch. Madrid are back to rolling along after a tough start, as it was only a matter of time before they corrected their problems. This game matches up two teams that are typically in attack mode and rarely play defensively, so I think we see an open game with plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides. Dortmund will feel hard done by after they should have taken all three points in Manchester, while Real could be a little more conservative as they are away from home. Dortmund should continue their solid European form and could take all three points, but Madrid will come prepared and will likely earn a share of the spoils.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Real Madrid

UPSET ALERT: Arsenal v. Schalke 04

Arsenal had another roller-coaster summer and their season is again off to a disappointing start. A pitiful performance in a loss to Norwich on Saturday lacked creativity and cutting edge, leading to very few scoring chances and a 1-0 result. The Gunners do not get Jack Wilshere back quite yet, and Olivier Giroud has hardly been a replacement for Robin Van Persie, so it does not appear promising against German power Schalke. The addition of Ibrahim Afellay has added more width to an already strong attacking side, and they match up very well against a very average Arsenal defense. Arsenal are historically dominant at home in Europe, but Schalke can break them down and inflict a damaging result away from home. Look for this game to also feature plenty of scoring chances and the Germans be in position to snatch a shock victory.

Prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Schalke

CONTRASTING FORTUNES: Malaga v. AC Milan

How things can change. Eight months ago, AC Milan were challenging for another Scudetto and competing in the knockout round of the Champions League, while Malaga were struggling to hold on to the success the new owners had promised due to a financial crisis. Today Malaga are third in La Liga and top of Group C after two 3-0 wins, while Milan are 15th in Serie A and in complete turmoil. Predictably, there are problems on both ends of the field after selling their best attacker and defender to PSG. I thought they would go down to Zenit, but took advantage of a team in more disarray than their own to steal a victory. In this matchup, they face a disciplined, though slightly inexperienced, in-form side in Malaga. They will be prepared to play. While it could be called an upset because of the difference in the histories of the two clubs, Malaga should come away with a victory. They are simply in much better form and things don't appear to be getting better anytime soon for the Italians.

Prediction: Malaga 2-1 AC Milan

Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses):

Spartak Moscow - Benfica (21) : DRAW
FC Nordsjaelland - Juventus (6) : AWAY WIN
BATE Borisov (24) - Valencia CF : DRAW
LOSC Lille - Bayern Munich (4) : AWAY WIN
Shakhtar Donetsk - Chelsea FC (3) : DRAW
Barcelona (2) - Celtic FC (25) : HOME WIN
Galatasaray - CFR Cluj-Napoca : DRAW
Manchester United (7) - Sporting Braga : HOME WIN
Zenit St. Petersburg (15) - RSC Anderlecht :  HOME WIN
Dinamo Zagreb - PSG (12) : AWAY WIN
FC Porto - Dynamo Kiev : HOME WIN
Arsenal (9) - Schalke 04 (13) : AWAY WIN
Montpellier - Olympiakos : HOME WIN
Malaga (14) - AC Milan (17) : HOME WIN
Ajax Amsterdam - Manchester City (5) : AWAY WIN
Borussia Dortmund (8) - Real Madrid CF (1) : DRAW

UEFA Top 25 - October 17

Top 25 for this week. There are a number of important ties coming up after the international break involving these squads so keep a look out the next few weeks.

Here is the distribution by country: England 6, Italy 4, Spain 4, France 3, Germany 3, Russia 2, Portugal 1, Belarus 1, Scotland 1

1 (1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2 (2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3 (6) Chelsea FC (ENG)
4 (4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
6 (7) Juventus FC (ITA)
7 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
8 (8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9 (12) Arsenal FC (ENG)
10 (15) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
11 (14) SSC Napoli (ITA)
12 (9) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
13 (13) Schalke 04 (GER)
14 (17) Malaga CF (ESP)
15 (10) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
16 (16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17 (11) AC Milan (ITA) 
18 (18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
19 (19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
20 (23) Everton FC (ENG)
21 (20) SL Benfica (POR)
22 (24) SS Lazio (ITA)
23 (NR) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
24 (NR) BATE Borisov (BLR)
25 (NR) Celtic FC (SCO)

Out of rankings: 21. Borussia Monchengladbach (GER),  22. Ajax Amsterdam (NED), 25. Montpellier HSC (FRA)

Notes:

1-10: Real Madrid are finally returning back to form, clinging to that number one place after a Clasico 2-2 draw with Barcelona. Whether they can maintain their focus against the smaller clubs remains to be seen.. Atletico Madrid are one of the scariest teams to play right now. With Falcao in world-class form (8 goals in 7 games), Atleti have scored 18 goals in 7 games to go joint-top on points with Barcelona. It makes their board's decision to put a price on Falcao Monday even more questionable. Why disturb the team right now?.. Santi Cazorla looks like an early candidate for buy of the season, showcasing his talent with a cracking goal in Arsenal's 3-1 win over gritty West Ham. Cazorla has been the best player in Arsenal's team by a wide margin, and returns of Jack Wilshere and Bacary Sagna will boost their quality further. You can't help but think this is same-old Arsenal though, especially as Olivier Giroud continues to flounder around up top.. In the same vein, this is not same-old Chelsea. Free-flowing playmakers have tranformed Chelsea from the counter-attacking defensive scheme to a more attractive attacking style. It is still too early to hand Chelsea an edge in the title race, but despite having a young starting XI, Chelsea look to challenge for the length of the season. Young does not always mean inexperienced.. Dortmund showed against Manchester City that they are a much-improved side in Europe. Last year's fourth-place finish was the result of inexperience and injuries. Dortmund deserved all three points away to the English champions. It only reinforces my belief that they will navigate through that group with Real Madrid.

11-25: It's amazing how AC Milan have gone from being Italian champions two years ago to a middling side this year. I know it's early - but this is not a form problem, it's a talent problem. Very few clubs are built to sell their best two players in the summer and contend (pretty much only Arsenal, kind of). Bringing in Pep won't help. Milan need to buy big in January if they hope to qualify for next season's Champions League. Forget about the title.. Tottenham look very impressive under AVB. I'm glad to see him doing better than his short reign at Chelsea. It's simply a better fit for an overhaul. He also has young players who can play - whereas his Chelsea youngsters weren't quite good enough yet. Spurs could be a very dangerous side this season.. Well, well BATE. Nothing but praise for the Belorussian ride after they systematically took down Bayern Munich 3-1 in Borisov. They proved that their win against Lille was no fluke, and are now in a great position to go through the group. Their next UCL game, home to struggling Valencia, is even more important. Another win would virtually send them through, amazingly.. Celtic deserve some praise as well. They acquired just their second win in a rich European tradition by coming from behind to defeat Spartak in Moscow. Scottish football has taken a beating from many people, due to their recent poor performance in Europe and the recent collapse of Rangers. The Bhoys could do wonders for their country by qualifying for the next stage.. Napoli are just as strong as last season, despite selling Ezequiel Lavezzi to PSG. Goran Pandev has slipped seamlessly into the starting lineup, and the club have started with nineteen points out a possible twenty-one. Juventus are the best team in Serie A, but Napoli could establish themselves as a definitive second.. Zenit are leading the race of most disappointing team this season, if only slightly over PSG. The only team in Russia spending nearly as much money as Zenit are Anzhi, whom they trail by five points in the league. Couple that with two listless Champions League defeats to teams who sold off their best players this summer in Malaga and AC Milan. There is too much of a talent gap for Zenit to not recover domestically, but their European campaign looks dead in the water.

UEFA Champions League - Matchday 2

The first matchday was a great encapsulation of what the Champions League is all about. We had high-quality competitive matches between top sides, tentative performances between lower-tier ones, as well as a few shocks. Real Madrid's 3-2 win over Manchester City was dubbed the match of the week and did not disappoint, as Madrid came from 2-1 down in the last three minutes to snatch a 3-2 win in stoppage time. Rivals Barcelona also had to come from 2-1 down to defeat Spartak Moscow 3-2. Defending champions Chelsea played out a tight 2-2 draw with Juventus in a game featuring many chances. The level of play was very high and was great to see across the board. The three German sides in the competition all won and Spanish sides won three of their four matches, while Russian, French and Italian sides combined to win just one of their seven matches. Nothing is easy in Europe, as ten of the sixteen matches in Matchday 1 were decided by a goal or less. This field was anticipated to be tough, and it's looking like a very competitive year throughout the groups.

The shock of the round was secured by BATE, the Belorussian champs who ran out to a 3-0 first half lead away to Lille before holding on to win 3-1. Could BATE be this year's surprise package? There are very few recognizable names in their squad (unless you are familiar with Belorussian football), but the most noticeable is the return of former Arsenal and Barcelona man Aleksandr Hleb. Even if Hleb's skills are not as honed as they once were, he will bring professionalism and experience to the squad. Their credentials will be tested quickly - Bayern Munich come to town this week. The win at Lille looks like it could be the highlight of their European campaign, but a shock performance against Bayern could have me believe they have a chance of getting out of this group. They still have quite a bit to prove.

The most impressive and most calamitous performance in the first match day came from the same game. Malaga's 3-0 win over Zenit was both a scintillating performance by the cash-strapped Spanish club as well as a disastrous output from the high-spending Russians. Malaga have certainly proven that they can still excel despite their club's questionable financial strategy, and a positive result in Belgium this week could really send them off to a flying start. Eleven points in five La Liga games have given the club's supporters good reason to hope for more success. On the other hand, Zenit have been very poor since Hulk and Axel Witsel joined the club for a fee in the region of 80 million Euros. Many of the long-serving players are rumored to be asking for pay raises after the club's spending spree. It is up to manager Luciano Spalletti to right the ship as AC Milan, another big club in poor form, head to St. Petersburg.

This week does not feature as many top-quality ties, but in this kind of Champions League, almost every game will be competitive. There are a few games we should take a closer look at this week.

HEADLINER: Manchester City v. Borussia Dortmund

Group D is going to make headlines every matchday because the "Group of Death" features so much quality. City are coming off the 3-2 loss in Madrid while Dortmund got by Ajax 1-0. Dortmund have one of the most formidable attacking quartets, with Lewandowski heading the lines in front of playmakers Reus, Gotze, and Blaszczykowski. Man City's leaky defense will have a tough time keeping them out, but their own attacking force, boosted by the return of Sergio Aguero, is quite strong itself. Expect another high-scoring game, and at the very least, both sides to score. I'm still not convinced by City in Europe - I think a draw could be on the cards in a game similar to their tilt with Napoli last year. Regardless of the score, there will be lots of chances.

Prediction: Manchester City 1-1 Dortmund

UPSET ALERT: CFR Cluj v. Manchester United

Yes, Manchester United lands in this spot this week. While I do think they will come away from Romania with a victory, United have been very shaky in the back this year and have been generally poor away from Old Trafford. Now captain Nemanja Vidic is facing a lengthy absence, making already shaky matters even worse. The Red Devils did win both games against last year's Romanian champs Otelul, but Cluj are a much more formidable side. They have won three domestic of the past five titles and posted an impressive 2-0 win at Braga on the first match day. They have the attackers to cause United trouble, and last year's European form along with their current away form should give United fans some cause for concern. This game could be much closer than anticipated and United must put its stamp on the game early to avoid dropping points in Eastern Europe.

Prediction: CFR Cluj 1-2 Manchester United

DO OR DIE: Zenit St. Petersburg v. AC Milan

I touched on Zenit's issues earlier - the 3-0 loss to Malaga created a deep hole to pull themselves out of already, while Milan's uninspiring 0-0 draw with Anderlecht at the San Siro was almost as distasteful. Malaga and Anderlecht are by no means poor opposition, but for these two clubs, those results are far below expectations. Milan can't score. Excluding a 3-1 win at Bologna, they have scored one goal in their other four competitive matches. With Zlatan and Thiago Silva sold to PSG, Cassano to Inter, and Robinho injured, Milan's team sheet looks very, very ordinary. They look to be in a lot more trouble than Zenit, who have the talent, but lack team chemistry. It's more of a matter of time before Zenit gets it together, as Milan look more like they could endure a very tough season. If there is a loser in this game (especially for Zenit) they could be in a world of trouble - Anderlecht are better than they are given credit for and Malaga is on a roll. I expect Zenit to show some urgency and take the game to the Rossoneri.

Prediction: Zenit 2-0 AC Milan

Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses):

Spartak Moscow - Celtic: HOME WIN
BATE Borisov - Bayern Munich (4): AWAY WIN
Benfica (20) - Barcelona (2): DRAW
CFR Cluj - Manchester United (5): AWAY WIN
Galatasaray - Braga: HOME WIN
Juventus (7) - Shakhtar Donetsk: HOME WIN
FC Nordsjaelland - Chelsea (6): AWAY WIN
Valencia - Lille: HOME WIN
Zenit St. Petersburg (10) - AC Milan (11): HOME WIN
Ajax Amsterdam (22) - Real Madrid (1): AWAY WIN
Anderlecht - Malaga (17): DRAW
Arsenal (12) - Olympiakos: HOME WIN
Dynamo Kiev - Dinamo Zagreb: HOME WIN
FC Porto - Paris Saint Germain (9): DRAW
Manchester City (3) - Borussia Dortmund (8): DRAW
Schalke 04 (13) - Montpellier (25): HOME WIN

UEFA Champions League Group Stage - Preview

Finally. The Champions League group stage is here. This is one of the strongest fields of recent years - there are very few teams left that will be severely over-matched. Here is a breakdown of each group:

Group A

Participants: FC Porto, Dynamo Kiev, Paris Saint-Germain, Dinamo Zagreb

Analysis: After a major summer overhaul, PSG start European life in a relatively easy group, despite being chosen from Pot 3. On paper, PSG are one of the most talented sides in Europe, and their progress should come to fruition on the continental stage. There is a major gulf in class between the Parisian side and the rest of the group. Porto are their toughest competitors, but they will have a hard time replacing Hulk after his departure to Zenit. Dynamo Kiev are also without their most formidable strike threat after Andriy Shevchenko retired this summer. Porto and Kiev are an interesting matchup - both have a strong history in Europe and are very tough to beat at home. I think Porto can edge the Ukrainians by gaining a draw away and winning at home to qualify. Dinamo Zagreb are hopeless - last year's campaign was a debacle with zero points from six games, including a suspiciously awful 8-1 loss to Lyon in their last game. They can only go up from last year, but it's hard to see them doing more than grabbing a point or two.

Prediction: 1. PSG 2. Porto 3. Dynamo Kiev 4. Dinamo Zagreb

Group B

Participants: Arsenal, Schalke 04, Olympiakos, Montpellier HSC

Analysis: Arsenal find themselves in a very easy group again this year, and I expect the Gunners to breeze through to the knockout stage. This is more about the weakness of the competition rather than Arsenal's strength - but in Santi Cazorla and a healthy Abou Diaby, Arsenal have enough quality in the midfield to control a game against any of these opponents. Schalke will be a difficult test, with the in-form Klaas-Jan Huntelaar leading the lines for the Germans. Schalke have experience in this competition from their semi-final run two years ago and should be expected to progress here. Olympiakos have been tough the last few years, but the loss of Kevin Mirallas (without any replacement) is a killer, and it will be difficult for the Greeks to come closer to the knockout stage than their narrow miss last year. Montpellier have only lost Olivier Giroud (to Arsenal) from last year's title-winning team, but French teams have not fared well in Europe recently, especially ones with little to no experience (ex. Auxerre two years ago). They will struggle against more seasoned opponents.

Prediction: 1. Arsenal 2. Schalke 3. Olympiakos 4. Montpellier

Group C

Participants: AC Milan, Zenit St. Petersburg, Anderlecht, Malaga

Analysis: Zenit were in the headlines this summer when they secured Hulk and Axel Witsel for a fee in the region of 80 million Euros. Hulk will provide more cutting edge up top for a team that struggled to score in the last year's competition and the Belgian will help the team's depth in central midfield. Zenit will be exciting to watch, and they have a great chance to win this group. Milan's late-summer sales of Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to PSG were well-publicized, and are now wide open for criticism. They have dropped two of their first three league games and have struggled to score - two 1-0 home losses to Sampdoria and Atalanta is unacceptable by Milan's standards. The Rossoneri still have enough quality to get through, but it will be much more challenging than previous years. Standing in their way is Malaga, the cash-strapped Spanish club managed by Manuel Pellegrini. Despite having to sell many of their key players, Malaga will be a formidable side on this stage and a tough out. The club have both the talent and spirit to cause the favored teams some trouble. Anderlecht are Belgian champions and will not be pushovers either. There is a strong European tradition and pride at the club as well as quite a bit of experience in the squad. Gillet, Jovanovic, and captain Lucas Biglia all have experience in international fixtures, and the side could make some noise in this group.

Prediction: 1. Zenit 2. AC Milan 3. Malaga 4. Anderlecht
 
Group D

Participants: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Ajax Amsterdam, Borussia Dortmund

Analysis: Group D is clearly the toughest group, with four domestic champions competing, three of which are from the top three ranked leagues in Europe. City and Dortmund both bowed out at the group stage last year, and will have an even tougher task to make the knockout round. Real Madrid look as strong as ever, and after toppling Barcelona in La Liga, it seems like Mourinho's primary objective to win another Champions League crown. It's hard to imagine Madrid going out before the knockout round. Despite their current poor form, I expect Madrid to have a very strong record in this group. On the other end of the spectrum, it's very difficult to see Ajax getting through here. Although Christian Eriksen is rightfully optimistic about his side's chances, the amount of quality in this group will be way too much for the Dutch side. They could pull a few good results through, but any place above third seems very unlikely. That leaves the last place to Dortmund and Man City - and I will select Man City to fall short of the group stage again this year. I believe their focus at heart is beating Man United in the Premier League, and with a group like this, any lapse of focus will be extremely costly. Dortmund have won the Bundesliga two years in a row now and will be more apt to display their style on the continental stage. Having a healthy Mario Gotze as well as adding Marco Reus should boost the side, despite losing Shinji Kagawa. It will be close, as it was with Napoli last year, but I think Man City will come up just short once again.

Prediction: 1. Real Madrid 2. Borussia Dortmund 3. Manchester City 4. Ajax

Group E

Participants: Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus, FC Nordsjaelland

Analysis: The holders are in a difficult group, with an arduous trip to Ukraine coupled with a matchup with Italian champions Juventus, a country where Chelsea have historically struggled. Chelsea have the strongest squad in the group and should find themselves in the knockout round. The squad is full of experience at every position and if the Blues can find a consistent source of goals, it will be easier than many think. Juventus are still in dominant form despite losing manager Antonio Conte to suspension. The momentum from last year's undefeated season in Serie A has continued into this season for the Turin club, which has won its first three fixtures along with the Italian Super Cup. They will be stiff contenders with Chelsea for first place. Shakhtar have competed in the Champions League routinely during the last few years, with one of its greatest victories in its history coming in a 3-2 win at the Nou Camp. However, the side really struggled last year in a relatively soft group, winning just one game, albeit against an APOEL side resting many of its regulars. Shakhtar will be difficult to beat in Ukraine, but will have a difficult time troubling Chelsea or Juventus away from home. FC Nordsjaelland are a complete unknown in this competition. They were surprise Danish champions last year, beating out power club FC Copenhagen, but there are very few recognizable names in their squad. We should not expect much from an unknown and inexperienced side considering the caliber of competition in this group. 

Prediction: 1. Chelsea 2. Juventus 3. Shakhtar 4. FC Nordsjaelland

Group F

Participants: Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov

Analysis: Bayern, last year's losing finalists, have a great draw against Valencia, Lille, and BATE. The Bavarians have been blazing out of the gates in the Bundesliga and are by far the strongest side in this group. Bayern will be in the mix for the final again this year and should navigate through without any bumps. Valencia are the second-strongest side, led by Jonas and Roberto Soldado. The Spanish side have been placing third or fourth in La Liga the last few years, and have the quality to do the same this year. Valencia always seems to find themselves in the knockout stage, with last year's drop down to the Europa League being quite the shock. Lille sold Eden Hazard to Chelsea this summer and have done little to replace him, although they do have talented French internationals Mathieu Debuchy and Marvin Martin in their side. Lille will be a tough side to play but do not figure on making in through this group. BATE are in the group stage again after taking out Ironi Kiryat Shmona in the playoffs. BATE have been playing in Europe consistently and will play a disciplined style - they just do not have nearly enough talent to get through this group. They could produce a shock to one of these sides but it's unlikely to expect much more than one or two positive results for the Belorussians.

Prediction: 1. Bayern 2. Valencia 3. Lille 4. BATE

Group G

Participants: Barcelona, Benfica, Spartak Moscow, Celtic

Analysis: Barcelona are among the favorites again for this year's competition despite the departure of coach Pep Guardiola.They were also handed a straightforward group - none of their three competitors will pose too much of a threat. I don't expect Barcelona to be perfect, but they should have no trouble winning this group. The other three sides in the group do not have much between them. Spartak defeated a good Fener side in the playoffs and look to be the strongest of the three. Russian football has been getting stronger and Moscow is always a difficult place to travel, especially in the winter. Celtic are historically dreadful away from home and will have to rely on their results at Celtic Park. The quality of Scottish football has been in a steep decline, and while Celtic feel they have something to prove, they are the most mistake-prone side of the three. Benfica won their group in last year's edition, but losing Witsel so late will harm a team that already needed to reload a bit. However, there is still plenty of quality and Benfica rarely lose at home. There will be no easy games in this group, but I will take the Russians to get through with Barcelona.

Prediction: 1. Barcelona 2. Spartak Moscow 3. Benfica 4. Celtic

Group H

Participants: Manchester United, Sporting Braga, Galatasaray, CFR Cluj

Analysis: United drew the easiest group of any of the four English clubs in the competition. Last year's group stage was an embarrassment for the Red Devils, as they were outplayed and at times outclassed by Benfica and Basel. This year United will make a point to qualify from this group without question, and although I still don't like their defensive set-up, they should have little trouble doing so. They could get exposed by Braga and Galatasaray, but those squads are both weaker than United's opponents last year, and they should be able to pull out the results. The rest of this group should be very close - again, there isn't much between any of the sides. I'm going with Braga to get through, as they have played well in Europe recently and are emerging as a Portuguese power along side traditionals Porto and Benfica. Galatasaray and Cluj represent federations that have seen better days, as both Romania and Turkey have been littered with major match-fixing scandals in the last decade. However, these sides will be very competitive and the fight for second will be close.

Prediction: 1. Manchester United 2. Braga 3. Galatasaray 4. CFR Cluj