Quarterfinals (team listed first will be home in first leg):
APOEL (25) v Real Madrid (2)
Benfica (13) v Chelsea (11)
Marseille (NR) v Bayern Munich (4)
AC Milan (8) v Barcelona (1)
Semifinals:
Marseille/Bayern Munich v APOEL/Real Madrid
Benfica/Chelsea v AC Milan/Barcelona
DRAW WINNER: Real Madrid.
Clearly every club was hoping to draw APOEL, and Real won the lottery. The Spanish giants should have no trouble handling the Cypriot cinderella story, as an APOEL victory in the tie would undoubtedly be the biggest upset in the history of European football. As a bonus, Madrid avoided Barcelona in the semi-finals and would only face a potential meeting with them in the final. Madrid have a much better chance of defeating Barca in one game versus two, so this is the best possible scenario for Jose's men. However, they should be careful not to overlook a possible matchup with Bayern in the semis, who have scored a sparkling twenty goals in their last three matches and look inspired by the prospect of playing in the final at their home stadium. If Bayern maintain their current form and get by Marseille, it should be a cracking tie between them and Madrid.
Why doesn't APOEL have a chance? It seems unfair, as most people have doubted this squad for the entirety of a Champions League campaign that began in July. I have loved supporting this team through their run and I've given them a chance in many of their ties, but they have exceeded my expectations by quite a bit. This challenge is simply far too steep. The teams they have defeated so far in the competition are Skenderbeu, Slovan Bratislava, Wisla Krakow, Zenit, Porto, and Lyon. The last three are very big clubs who have enjoyed plenty of success in Europe over the past five years, proving that APOEL does have quality to hang with the big boys. But Real Madrid is a giant, and APOEL has not faced a team from England, Spain or Germany (the top three leagues) yet this season. You just really can't see them moving on here. I hope that this tie isn't too ugly because APOEL deserve better for their great campaign.
DARK HORSE: Chelsea.
A rejuvenated Chelsea have won four straight games since the firing of AVB - two FA Cup games to reach the semifinals, a 4-1 win over Napoli to overturn a 3-1 deficit, and a tight 1-0 win over Stoke in the Premier League. The whole squad has rapidly regained its form, with David Luiz and Gary Cahill looking strong in defense and Fernando Torres and Didier Drogba again looking potent in attack. Torres' two goals and two assists against Leicester was his best performance in a blue shirt. Chelsea face a strong, but far from unconquerable opponent in Benfica, then would face the winner of Barcelona-AC Milan in the semis. When Chelsea are at their best, they can play with any team in Europe, even Barcelona. The Blues have historically played well against Barcelona in the Champions League, and seem to have solved some of their early-season defensive woes under Roberto Di Matteo. The potential run of Benfica-Barcelona-Real Madrid to win the competition would be difficult, but in their current form, Chelsea are capable of causing a few upsets.
UPSET POTENTIAL: AC Milan.
The best matchup of the quarterfinals should be between holders Barcelona and reigning Italian champions AC Milan. Milan played Barca very tight this season - drawing 2-2 in Spain while falling 3-2 in Italy. Both games were very open and both sides had plenty of chances, giving hope to Milan for a possible upset. Milan are a very good team, and it is rare that a victory for them would be considered an upset. But such is Barcelona's European form this season, which has been absolutely lethal. With La Liga far out of sight, Barca is squarely focused on winning a second straight Champions League and a third in four years. Milan have the talent to cause the upset but they will have to play very, very well to do so. I think they are going to need at least six goals to beat Barcelona. Between Zlatan, Pato, Robinho, and Boateng, there are goals in the side - it should be very tight if they are on form.
WHO WILL ADVANCE
I see Barcelona, Chelsea, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid advancing. I have attached my bracket below:
Lastly, I thought about starting to include the Europa League matchups since we are into the quarterfinals, but after seeing both Manchester clubs go out in the round of 16 along with Udinese, there simply aren't quality teams in the competition left that I know enough about. The only team left that I currently have included in my rankings is Schalke (at 18), so it seems like a bunch of mediocre teams. I will try and watch some and will definitely have a preview for the semis.
The UCL first legs are on March 27 and 28.
