The long-awaited first legs of the semi-finals of the Champions League are this week, with Bayern Munich hosting Real Madrid on Tuesday, while Chelsea take on Barcelona at the Bridge on Wednesday. They should both be great games, and with favorites Real and Barca on the road things could get very interesting.
Bayern Munich (3) v Real Madrid (2)
This matchup is a true heavyweight clash, as the two most successful teams in Germany and Spain, respectively, face off. Both sides display many players of world class talent, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema leading Real's forces while Mario Gomez, Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery lead Bayern. Bayern's title chase is over, now eight points behind Dortmund with just three games remaining. While domestic and European form are typically separate, it's hard to say that domestic disappointment will not be a blow to Bayern's psyche ahead of this tie. Real are still four points clear of Barcelona in La Liga, but that lead was ten points and Madrid must head to the Nou Camp on the weekend. There is the possibility of a letdown in a game before such a crucial one in the league, especially facing a strong opponent away from home.
The key to the game will be the taking of chances. While there are quite a few national defenders on each side, there should be lots of goals - more than normal for a semi-final matchup in Europe, where teams tend to get very conservative. I don't see this being low-scoring unless Mourinho decides to pack it in at the back and win the tie at home, but given how Madrid have played away this season in Europe, that doesn't seem to be the case. If Robben and Ribery can control the flanks for Bayern, Real will have a hard time putting a stamp on the game. But with teams like these two, all it takes is one small opening, so Gomez and Ronaldo are both good bets to score. With all of the talented, in-form attackers on the field it should be a show in Munich, but it is difficult to say who will win. I think Real have a slight edge in the tie, but Bayern are now squarely focused on this trophy and the idea of winning it in their own arena. It's a real toss-up, but regardless of the result, the tie should still be in the balance when the two teams head to Spain next week.
PREDICTION: Bayern Munich 2-2 Real Madrid
Chelsea (9) v Barcelona (1)
Chelsea enter this game in their best form and state-of-mind of the season, following a 5-1 thumping of London rivals Tottenham (with the aid of a goal that wasn't) at Wembley. Didier Drogba, Juan Mata, and Ramires were fantastic for the Blues, and Roberto Di Matteo faces a difficult selection choice between Drogba and Fernando Torres. Chelsea also have injury issues at the back, with David Luiz doubtful and Gary Cahill nursing a foot injury. Barcelona have injury issues of their own at the back, with Gerard Pique questionable for the game and Eric Abidal still out. A come-from-behind win over Levante at the weekend has Barcelona still in the thick of the domestic race, and the Catalans have won their last five matches overall, and fourteen of their last fifteen.
Barcelona are clear favorites not only for this tie but to win the tournament, so Chelsea face the rare designation of being the underdog. That role has suited the Blues well this season, and despite the squad not being as strong as past years, there is still plenty of quality within the team. A note made in Sunday's FA Cup telecast was "when they play well they are experienced, when they don't play well they are old." That is a perfect characterization of how the media views Chelsea, and on Sunday they were experienced. Di Matteo has consistently rotated his squad and trusted many different players in his interim reign, so I'm interested to see his selection for Wednesday. The defense will depend on injuries, but the major choices are between the likes of Meireles, Essien, Mikel and Lampard in midfield, and between Torres and Drogba up top. Whichever midfield players he chooses must match up with the likes of Iniesta and Xavi, which is no easy task. Barcelona take their free-flowing football wherever they go, and while they have not historically played well in England, they will have the short odds to come out with an advantage. If Chelsea want to stay in this tie, they can not play from behind - Barcelona are deadly with their possession game and can frustrate teams into simple mistakes with their patience. Both defenses are average when healthy, but both sides are banged up, so I think there will be goals in this game as well. However, look for Chelsea to play for conservatively than the teams on Tuesday, and there to be fewer chances and goals. It is vital for Chelsea to not allow Barca to cut them apart, like they do to so many sides
Prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Barcelona
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