A quick recap of last week's action: Mario Gomez scored in the 90th minute to hand Bayern a 2-1 win over Real Madrid in Munich, while a first-half injury time goal from Didier Drogba gave Chelsea a 1-0 win over Barcelona at Stamford Bridge. With both underdogs winning their first legs at home, both ties are well-positioned for dramatics in this week's finales.
Barcelona (0) v Chelsea (1)
Chelsea could have wrote the definition for "smash-and-grab" as they held just 26% of possession and had one shot on goal in their victory over Barcelona. While their defensive performance was sound and resolute, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan (myself) must admit that they rode quite a bit of luck during the contest, as Fabregas, Sanchez and Busquets all missed fairly routine opportunities to score. However, they succeeded in frustrating Barcelona and did a great job of taking Lionel Messi out of the game, and their superb run of form will give them plenty of confidence heading into the second leg. Barcelona looked deflated after that defeat and it carried over into Saturday's El Clasico with Real Madrid, resulting in a 2-1 defeat for the Catalans, all but clinching the title for Madrid.
A great deal of attention has come to Barcelona's struggles away on "smaller" pitches, with their home, the Camp Nou, being larger and giving them more space to work with. But their pitch is just 2.4 yards longer and 0.7 yards wider, so will that make too much of a difference? I don't believe so. Di Matteo will play this game exactly like the first tie, providing Drogba will be able to overcome his knee injury. Chelsea rested eight players on Saturday against Arsenal, and they should all return against Barcelona, while the Catalans only rested Fabregas and Sanchez against Real Madrid. The extra rest could benefit Chelsea greatly, as Barcelona looked tired against Madrid and their passing was not nearly as sharp as usual. Barca will be more comfortable at home despite possible fatigue and letdown from the loss in El Clasico, and it would be surprising to see them held goalless again. I think Chelsea just need to score, as I don't see Barca putting three past them. Barca's hopes lie on the fitness of Gerard Pique. There is no doubt they will possess the ball, probably at least 65% of the game, and Chelsea will try and counter when they can. If Pique is able to play effectively, he can take away some of Drogba's aerial threat and strength, as Puyol and Mascherano simply cannot handle him. If he is not able to play the full ninety minutes, Chelsea should find a way to nick a goal and get through to the final. This tie is going to be the first time all year I renege on my original selection, as I am backing the Blues to score in Spain and get through to the final.
Prediction: Barcelona 2-1 Chelsea (2-2 aggregate, Chelsea through on away goals)
Real Madrid (1) v Bayern Munich (2)
Bayern were the better side on Tuesday, and much to their relief, they got the deserved winner from Gomez very late in the contest. Real did not play well at all, and Bayern enjoyed many of the best chances and a greater deal of possession. Bayern were able to rest a number of players on Saturday with the Bundesliga all-but decided (Dortmund clinched it later that day), while Madrid played the exact same line-up against Barcelona that they played in Munich. There will be some tired legs out on the pitch for Los Blancos, but playing in their home stadium will certainly increase their chances.
These sides are very close in terms of skill and experience so both games have been expected to be tight - this game should be no different. Bayern have struggled mightily away from home this season, dropping a number of points in the league away to mid-table sides along with a shocking loss in Switzerland to FC Basel. Bayern just cannot seem to get into the same kind of flow as they do in the Allianz Arena, and now they come up against the best coach in getting results from home games, Jose Mourinho. Real have won every home game they have played in Europe this season by at least three goals, although they have not played a team near the quality of Bayern. This game will be a battle between Real's possible fatigue and Bayern's will to play the final in their home stadium. Just like the first game, I expect both sides to score and there to be plenty of chances. Real should be able to put more of a stamp on the game than in Munich, and while this game could be very open, they know they only need a single goal to go through. This tie could still go either way, but I think Real will be boosted by their defeat of Barcelona and march on to the final.
Prediction: Real Madrid 3-1 Bayern Munich (4-3 on aggregate)
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