Tomorrow's final features the last two World Cup winners - defending WC and Euro champion Spain and 2006 winners Italy. Both teams came from Group C, and played each other in the first game of the tournament, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The Italians were clearly on top for the first half, with Spain struggling to play without a striker. In the second half, Spain responded to an Italian goal by throwing on Torres, which helped their shape and got them an equalizer.
Spain have played throughout this tournament without a striker, but have been very poor, especially the last two games. Against Portugal they started with a striker (Negredo) and created next to nothing. Spain's passing game can be devastating when they have a lead, but without David Villa, Spain have struggled in this tournament to put passes together in the final third. Italy, who were a huge mystery due to a number of younger players in the squad and the match-fixing scandal hanging over Serie A, have played wonderfully throughout the tournament. Once again, the Italians have responded to scandal by making their countrymen proud, and their only "poor" performance was against England, and they still were able to boss the flow of the game.
The key match-up is going to be in the midfield, with Italy's Andrea Pirlo making his case for player of the tournament with his instrumental passing, against Spain's legendary tandem of Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Both Spain and Italy try and dominate possession, and while Italy will likely concede more possession to the Spanish than against other teams, they will not simply sit back and try and counter. They did a solid job of breaking up the Spanish passing game in the opener and will adopt a similar tactical style. Spain will have more possession, but their fight will be to have more meaningful possession. Spain always has a higher number of passes than its opponent, but many of the passes are back and forth between the back line. With just three goals in their last three games, Spain must find a way to move the ball vertically down the field.
The biggest question going into the match will be what formation Spain decides to play. They have struggled in the 4-6 formation, creating very little against Portugal and, despite scoring against France, had just nine shots against a very poor French performance. Del Bosque inexplicably started Negredo against Portugal, and the team improved after his departure. Will he go with Torres, who scored two against the Republic of Ireland but failed to score (or make any kind of impact) in his other spells of play? Or will he stick with Fabregas, who started the first game against Italy, and maintain the possessive, slow-building style that has characterized Spain for the tournament? Italy have no such issue, as Mario Balotelli's brace against Germany must surely affirm his place in the starting line-up. He proved very clinical against the Germans, capitalizing on his two best chances for the winning goals. He had a very poor showing against Spain in the first game, but his performances have improved throughout the tournament, and he should be a menace to deal with.
PREDICTION
Tracking back to my pre-tournament post, I selected two teams from the same group to be in the final - but it was the wrong group, Group B. The Dutch were the huge disappointment of the tournament, losing all three games in the group, while Germany fell to the Italians in the semi-finals. Spain was never matched up with anyone who had the midfield power to beat them, while the Italians have responded better than imagined to the developments on and off the field. Spain have won their last two finals, both 1-0, against the Germans and the Dutch, respectively. Italy have not lost to Spain in a competitive match since 1920. Spain will have more possession in the game, but if they start without a striker, it will be difficult to get the ball past the Italian defense and world-class goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Italy's chances in this game are resting on their ability to take their chances. They did not in their first match-up with Spain or their quarterfinal against England, but did so against Germany. They will have their opportunities against an average Spanish defense, and they must take them.
Finals are often nervy, low-scoring encounters, especially in international football. I really hope it isn't because Spain can put me to sleep when they decide to just pass the ball around in circles. I think they will play their 4-6, with Fabregas up top, and if they are unable to score by the 65th minute or so, Del Bosque will throw Torres on to improve the attacking options. Italy and Spain played to a 0-0 draw in their last competitive meeting, with Spain advancing in Euro 2008 on penalties. Despite history being on the side of the Italians, I'm picking Spain in this final in a very disappointing game. I will be rooting for the Italians though, both for the entertainment and my own personal preference.
Prediction: Spain 1, Italy 0
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