Euro 2016: More Teams, Fewer Favorites

Euro 2016 is the first European tournament to be held with 24 entrants, up from 16 in the previous few versions. There will also be an extra knock-out round; the best four third-placed teams will qualify from the group stage along with the winners and runners-up of each of the six groups. As I noted in a previous post, the expansion to a 24-team final tournament strongly increased the level of play in qualifying, and we will see a number of nations in this year’s edition that had never previously qualified – Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and Wales all make their first appearance in the tournament. This is a positive for a number of reasons, namely that more people get to take participate and dream of their country bringing home the cup. 
 

While I believe the gap between the top sides in Europe and the weaker sides in this tournament has closed, there isn’t much to choose from after Germany and France. The Germans come in confident after their triumph in the 2014 World Cup and have the strongest and deepest roster in Europe. It was shocking to see them lose their aggregate tie in qualifying to the Republic of Ireland, a team I rank as one of the weaker sides to qualify. However, the Germans still won Group D and deserve their label as favorites coming off their World Cup victory. A recent friendly loss to Slovakia shouldn’t be looked into too deeply. France, as hosts, won the World Cup in 1998 and look to repeat that task this summer. The team has gone through more than enough ups and downs in previous tournaments and it seems to be time to get down to business – everyone is sick of the melodramatic stigma that surrounds this team. The midfield is stacked, led by Juventus’s Paul Pogba, and Antoine Griezmann is in the form of his career for Atletico Madrid. The French are my pick to win the tournament.

Spain just looks old to me. The two-time defending champs struggled in the World Cup and their forward line is surprisingly thin. Their qualifying group was particularly weak and they split their matches with the second-best side, Slovakia. No one in their right mind can pick England. I like the roster – it looks stronger than previous tournaments – but there’s that inevitable sense of failure looming. Maybe Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy can change that? They’re in a very tough group and were truly dreadful in Brazil. Belgium, Portugal and Italy are the last three sides that could be considered as possible contenders, but Belgium is still young, Portugal has little else outside of Ronaldo and Italy is lacking the quality you’d expect out of an Italian team.

There are a few dark horses in this tournament. Croatia has a wealth of talent in midfield and experience up front with Mario Mandzukic. They have failed to live up to expectations since their quarterfinal appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and crashing out in the group stages of Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup. Croatia placed third in Euro 1998 and could make a deep run in France again. They have the talent to win the tournament and while that is a lofty expectation, a semi-final appearance seems likely to me. Switzerland is another team that could make a much deeper run than expected. Their group is weak other than France, whom they lost to 5-2 in 2014. Romania and Albania shouldn’t be any issue for the experienced Swiss side, and a runners-up position in the group would likely pit them against Poland or Ukraine. A quarterfinal appearance seems reasonable, and would surpass expectations for a side that managed to hold Argentina for 116 minutes in the World Cup before losing 1-0.

France should win Group A easily. They crushed the Swiss in the World Cup (the 5-2 score line understated the play on the field) and Romania won’t be able to score against them. Albania is the worst team in the tournament by some distance. They qualified mostly due to the fact that their group was bad and they were the beneficiaries of an unfortunate incident involving Serbia. Romania has gotten steadily weaker over the last two decades and I haven’t seen anything to convince me a turnaround is coming. They can pack it in defensively but that’s about it. Switzerland should advance along with the French. Group B is a wildcard. You never know what you’re going to get from England, and their first match against the regularly underperforming Russian side should give us a good idea. The matchup with Wales on June 16 will be dynamite, and the one-man show of Gareth Bale will need to be on top form to advance. Other than a bizarre home loss to Belarus, Slovakia was solid in qualifying and presents a very balanced opponent. Martin Skrtel and Marek Hamsik are the cornerstones of the side, and both are experienced, talented players. Russia always seems to underachieve in major tournaments and this group presents a greater challenge than they faced in Brazil. I’m going to take England to win the group and advance with Slovakia, but I’m prepared to hear the England fans moaning if they blow it against the Welsh. They’ll never hear the end of that. But Group B could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Poland and Germany split two matches in qualifying and they will play again in Group C, also on June 16. The Poles have steadily improved over the last few years and with Robert Lewandowski leading the lines, they will be an entertaining team to watch. Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland are boring and bad, so I’m hoping that the Germans and Poles find their way through. The Irish won what was the worst European qualifying group I’ve ever seen, and while their progress deserves accolades, it doesn’t make them any better. The best side they managed to beat was Hungary (who I rank 23 out of the 24 teams that qualified). Ukraine is a bit better but there were just 18 total goals in their 10 qualifying matches, with six of them coming in a pair of 3-0 wins against Luxembourg. Can’t say I’m excited to watch Ukraine play, although Andriy Yarmolenko can make them bearable to watch. Ukraine did have success against Poland in 2013 but the teams have been going in opposite directions since then. Thankfully, Germany and Poland are the best two teams in the group and should head through. Group D is very interesting. Spain will try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit in Brazil, but their squad doesn’t look too intimidating to me. Diego Costa will not go to France, and while he has struggled with injuries, finishing, and keeping his head on straight over the last twelve months, his absence leaves Spain heavily reliant on Juventus forward Alvaro Morata. An aging midfield behind him does not inspire me, and a 1-0 loss to Georgia in their final tune-up could prove to be an eerie sign. The Czechs and Turks also faced off in qualifying, with each side winning at the other’s ground. Turkey seems to play well in tournaments so they could be a dark horse in this group. I see Croatia as the best team in the group. Some combination of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic will form what looks like the best midfield in Europe. Croatia faces Spain on June 21, likely to determine the group’s winner. I like the Croats to beat the Spanish and win the group, with Spain second.

Group E is another very balanced group. Belgium and Italy face each other first on June 13 in what should be an exciting contest. It could go either way, and we should see plenty of goals. Sweden and Ireland played one another in World Cup qualifying in 2013 and the Swedes came out on top, winning in Ireland and securing a draw at home. What would this tournament be without Zlatan? He’d be the first to tell you it would be boring and not worth watching, so let’s hope his final Euros turns out to be a memorable one. The problem is, Sweden just isn’t very good, and although they were in a tough qualifying group and were the only side to take a point from Austria, they won just five of their ten matches and had to beat Scandinavian rivals Denmark in a playoff just to qualify. Ireland has put up some very good results, beating Germany during qualifying and knocking out a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina side in the playoffs. They haven’t been nearly as good outside of Ireland, and this group is particularly tough. Despite their respective issues, Belgium and Italy will be heavy favorites to advance and I expect both sides to do so.

Lastly, Group F strongly resembles Group D in the Copa America – there are two very strong sides and two rather inept ones. Portugal will always be a threat with Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Austria is their only formidable opponent. Austria ran off nine wins and a draw in ten qualifying matches to reach the tournament for the second time (they co-hosted in 2008). Led by Bayern Munich midfielder David Alaba, the Austrians have perhaps their best team ever. I would rank them higher but their lack of experience concerns me. The two clunkers in the group are Iceland and Hungary. Iceland had a great run in qualifying, but I expect them to come down to Earth. Their two wins against the Netherlands say more about the state of the Dutch side than the prowess of their own play. Iceland has some stars but no real experience to draw upon. Hungary came in third in that awful qualifying group that Northern Ireland won. They scored only 11 goals in 10 matches and qualified by beating a poor Norway side. This isn’t the Hungarian side from the 1950’s. Iceland has a better shot at causing a shock but Portugal and Austria are a few steps above both teams.

I picked the hosts in Brazil and felt pretty dumb afterwards so I’m hoping this isn’t a repeat. France has the fortune of an easy group to get the home crowd behind the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have a squad of their caliber. Overall, I expect this tournament to be less predictable than the Copa America – these teams don’t play each other in competitive atmospheres very often and there are eight more teams involved. That means eight additional styles of play, numerous additional superstars that could win a game single-handedly and ultimately what should be a very fun tournament to watch. The Germans are the betting favorite but this is the type of year where you could see an underdog take the trophy.

Weekly Rankings 10/12 - Germany Tops International Ranks; Netherlands Disappoints

Rankings

1. Germany
2. Chile
3. Argentina
4. Spain
5. Belgium
6. France
7. Portugal
8. Colombia
9. Austria
10. Brazil
11. Italy
12. Uruguay
13. England
14. Poland
15. Côte d'Ivoire
16. Wales
17. Iceland
18. Croatia
19. Ghana
20. Netherlands

Terms:

AFC – Asian soccer federation

CAF – African soccer federation

CONCACAF – North American soccer federation

CONMEBOL – South American soccer federation

UEFA – European soccer federation

News:

Let me first mention that FIFA’s actual “rankings” are ridiculous (perhaps a good representative of the organization itself). To summarize, they don’t take into account teams who are hosting major tournaments, and place way too much emphasis on meaningless qualifying games. If you’re looking at the official rankings and wondering why Wales is 8th and France is 22nd, there’s your answer..  No team from CONCACAF makes my rankings. The United States used to be worthy, but their Gold Cup performance was just plain awful. You could see the loss to Mexico coming – the team doesn’t deserve a place in the Confederations Cup, and you aren’t a top-20 team if you lose to Jamaica in a big game. Mexico is still a mess, despite the win. Costa Rica is the only other possible candidate – they too were poor in the Gold Cup. Years of corruption in the FIFA hierarchy (i.e. Jack Warner) has made headlines, but its effect on stunting the growth of CONCACAF is clear.. Not willing to give any team from AFC a spot either. Australia and Japan have been the best two teams in the region for quite some time, but neither made any kind of dent at the World Cup last year. South Korea also failed to make an impact, and with Iran rounding out the region’s qualifiers, the results were four last-place finishes for AFC.  It’s an area lacking in star power and depth. Asia has some of the worst teams in the world despite having massive populations, as countries like India and China are pathetic on the field. There is the most room for growth in AFC, but it hasn’t even begun its liftoff yet.

European qualifiers are nearly concluded, with only tomorrow’s matches remaining. I wrote previously about how the expansion from a 16-team final tournament to 24 teams would raise the quality of play in qualifying matches (10/14: New European Qualifying Structure Paying Quick Dividends), and the results are quite staggering. Iceland, Northern Ireland, Wales, Albania and Slovakia all qualified for their first-ever tournament, while Austria also qualified for the first time (they were co-hosts in 2008, and were automatically in). There are six pots to rank teams from best to worst, and Wales came from Pot 4, while Iceland, Northern Ireland and Albania came from Pot 5. For reference, 2012 qualifying’s lowest-ranked team to qualify was Ireland, who was in Pot 3. The last team to qualify from the fourth pot or lower was Latvia in 2004, when there were only five pots. Granted, more spots in the finals means more opportunities for lower-ranked nations, but the expansion of the Euros has not only improved competitiveness, but allowed football to grow more quickly and gain more attention in smaller countries. The move has been a clear bright spot during a dark, turbulent period for UEFA and FIFA.

As for the rankings, World Champions Germany top the list, just as their counterparts Bayern Munich do for the club rankings. Last week’s loss to Ireland was a black mark, certainly, but given the busy club schedules at this time and the cushion Germany had in Group D, it was forgivable. There is no deeper team in the world – Germany’s “B” team would likely be a top-15 side. They will be favorites next summer to win Euro 2016.. Chile logged an impressive win over Brazil to take the initiative in CONMEBOL qualifying. This should not come as a surprise, despite it being Chile’s first win over their counterparts in fifteen years. Brazil will be better when Neymar returns; for now, they are barely a top-10 side.. Argentina played horribly in a 2-0 defeat to Ecuador and lost Sergio Aguero in the process. Sadly, at this point we must expect Aguero to get hurt because it seems to happen so frequently. He should miss over a month of play this time. Despite the poor performance, Argentina will be fine without him – it is a much greater concern for Manchester City.

Winners from Euro qualifiers? The United Kingdom and Ireland, which could see four of their five teams in France next summer. England, Northern Ireland and Wales are already qualified, while Ireland head to the playoffs. Only Scotland will certainly miss out, as a loss in Georgia proved a fateful blow to their campaign. Wales are certainly not as good as their lofty FIFA ranking, but Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey could take the team a long way. The Welsh could make some noise in France. England are good, of course, but not great. More of the same should be expected.. Austria have been one of the shining stars of qualifying. Seemingly packed with expectation year after year, the young Austrian side finally came through, winning Group G easily while dropping just two points in a home draw with Sweden. Full of crafty midfielders, Austria will be a sleeper candidate.. If there was a wins-above-replacement statistic for soccer, then Robert Lewandowski would certainly top it after his performances for Bayern and Poland this season. The man is simply unstoppable. His thirteen goals easily led all scorers in qualifying, and there appears to be no way to contain him. Poland’s biggest problem is that the final tournament is a whole year away. He can take what is an above-average team (at best) and make them elite..  Despite all the buzz around the newcomers for Euro 2016, we will likely be missing one continental power as the Netherlands completely fell apart in Group A. The Dutch lost to each of the three sides ahead of them away from home, including being swept by Iceland. This is a team that usually breezes through qualifying, and Group A was not particularly difficult. It will be stunning if the Dutch miss out on France, but thoroughly deserved.. Portugal lost their first match at home to Albania before rattling off seven straight mostly-unimpressive one-goal wins to win Group I. An always-talented but inconsistent side, Portugal will go to France with perhaps Cristiano Ronaldo’s last hope of winning the Euros. While Ronaldo rightly deserves praise as the best Portugese player of all-time, it is unlikely he is rewarded with a major trophy. Portugal has matched nearly every big win with a puzzling loss over the last fifteen years.

Games to Watch:

Tuesday: Euro 2016 qualifying concludes, with a number of deciding matches on tap for both automatic qualification to France and qualification to the playoff round. Tuesday’s games are highlighted by Turkey – Iceland, Cyprus – Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Italy – Norway. Turkey only need a point to qualify for the playoffs as they own the head-to-head with the Netherlands, who take on the Czechs needing a win and a ton of help from Iceland. Turkey should be heading to the playoffs, although they were beaten handily by Iceland in Reykjavik. Cyprus host Bosnia with possibly the unlikeliest bid to qualify for the playoffs. Two points behind their opponents entering the day, Cyprus need a win and an Israel loss or draw in Belgium. Cyprus, who are a mediocre side at best, won in Bosnia before going 2-5 over their next seven matches, only managing to beat minnows (me being kind) Andorra twice. But a win last week in Israel gives them an improbable hope of making the playoffs, as Bosnia has stumbled throughout the campaign and Israel just isn’t very good. I would expect Bosnia to take care of business – they are a much better side and playing better after a nightmare start. Lastly, Norway can qualify for their first major tournament since 2000 by beating Italy, as Croatia will almost certainly beat Malta. Only a win will do, as Croatia won the head-to-head between the two sides.

In South America, Uruguay and Colombia face off in Montevideo. Both teams won their first qualifier, with Uruguay winning in Bolivia and Colombia defeating Peru. Both sides play a physical style and have elite attacking players. Brazil and Argentina are still filled with stars but aren’t the most entertaining teams on the continent now-a-days – these two, along with Chile, are. Hopefully no bites or back-breaking tackles, though.

Saturday: Club football returns, and Tottenham – Liverpool will be the matchup to watch Saturday morning in England. Liverpool hired Jurgen Klopp to replace the struggling Brendan Rodgers, as even a draw in the Merseyside derby was not enough to save Rodgers from receiving the axe. Tottenham provides a solid first test for Klopp, who is one of the best coaches in the world. His last year at Dortmund is not indicative of his abilities, and with a talented but underperforming squad, he could steer the ship back on course quickly. He has already tempered expectations and will need to sign some of his own type of players, but Liverpool should rejoin the “let’s take them seriously” conversation much sooner with Klopp at the helm.

Sunday: Many of the top club teams are missing a marquee matchup this weekend, but there is some interesting action in Italy and Spain. In Italy, Napoli – Fiorentina and Inter Milan – Juventus should be very good matches, while Villarreal takes on Celta Vigo in Spain.  Napoli have won five of six matches (the only draw a puzzling 0-0 result against newly-promoted Carpi) while logging an extraordinary 18:1 goal differential. That run includes a 2-1 win over Juventus and a 4-0 spanking of AC Milan. The hottest team in Serie A, they take on leaders Fiorentina, who are six points ahead but still proving themselves as contenders. Inter are in second place, and will have their hands full with reigning but out-of-form champions Juventus. I’m expecting Juventus to start closing that gap on Inter and Fiorentina, and it should start on Sunday with wins for the “Old Lady” and Napoli.

New European Qualifying Structure Paying Quick Dividends

The European Championships are UEFA’s flagship competition in international football. After five competitions with 16 teams, the field is being expanded to 24 teams for the 2016 tournament. There has been severe backlash from areas of the continent, suggesting that the competition will be watered down with the addition of eight more teams. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, and the change is already paying off.

Whenever a tournament has been expanded in sports, there are two sides of the argument. One side will suggest that the additional teams bolster the competition by adding more games and creating a more competitive and unpredictable tournament. The extra games allow for more participants to be involved and increases the revenue generated by the event. Opponents suggest that having more games makes it harder for the truly elite teams to succeed by presenting unworthy competition the opportunity to take a final shot in the tournament. In this scenario, the “best” team has a lesser chance of winning because of the increased amount of games, diluting the competition’s quality. For example, in the case of the NCAA’s basketball tournament, I am a firm opponent of expanding the tournament. I feel that the teams who don’t get in had plenty of chances to prove themselves, and expanding the tournament would water down the competition so much that the regular season would not matter. In the European Championships, I see the opposite effect.

In the previous format, just 16 of 54 associations would be allowed to participate in the final tournament – a total of 29.6%. The host (or occasionally co-hosts) automatically qualifies, taking away one or two spots from qualifiers. That pushes the percentage of qualifiers to reach the finals down (with one host) to 28.3%. This year, with France as host, 43.4% of the qualifiers will reach the final tournament. This should benefit competition in the groups and overall parity across the continent. Teams who were drawn from Pot 4 and Pot 5 had virtually no chance in the previous format – the eight group winners often come from Pot 1 or 2, while second place would not even guarantee a place in the finals, but a place in the playoffs against a higher-ranked opponent. Now, players for countries like Wales and Iceland can have a real motivation to compete because they have a chance. In the first match day alone, we saw Albania (Pot 5) defeat Portugal (Pot 1), Iceland (Pot 5) defeat Turkey (Pot 3), Cyprus (Pot 5) defeat Bosnia-Herzegovina (Pot 1), Northern Ireland (Pot 5) defeat Hungary (Pot 2), and Scotland (Pot 4) lose 2-1 to World Champions Germany. On the second match day, Kazakhstan, from the lowest pot in the draw (Pot 6), led the Dutch at halftime. Obviously, these results are not expected to continue and the top sides will regain their form, but I see the extra motivation for the minnows as the primary reason for these historic scorelines.

Let’s take a quick look at Montenegro. A Pot 5 side in the last European qualifiers, the tiny Balkan country surprised by snatching second-place from Switzerland by a point. Their unlikely qualification for the playoffs was swiftly met with a playoff against 11th ranked Czech Republic, who beat the Montenegrins 3-0 on aggregate. Did Montenegro deserve a place in the finals? Probably not, but their improvement gave the side something to build upon going into the next qualifiers. This time, their group is much tougher, with Russia, Sweden and Austria joining them in fighting for three spots. That group has already been electric – those four sides are separated by just three points. With just one automatic qualification spot available in the previous format, one of the four teams would likely be out of the mix before the end, lessening the quality of their remaining fixtures. With two teams advancing and a third gaining a playoff spot, all four teams will likely be in it until the end.

I don’t think the 24-team final tournament compromises the competition at all. Apart from Greece’s victory in Portugal 2004, which was a 16-team format, there has not been a major shock winner in international football. I also don’t see a major gap between the sides currently ranked 13-16 and the sides right below them. Ukraine (10), Sweden (13), and Denmark (14) strike me as marginally better, at best, than the Czechs (17), Ireland (19) and Turkey (21). There will hardly be a massive drop off in quality. Will there be a low-ranked side in the finals? Most likely, but again, this is not news. In the World Cup, eight sides ranked 33 or lower (since the World Cup, in theory, should be the top 32 teams) qualified for the finals. Only one team, Nigeria, advanced out of the group stage, and they were eliminated by France in the Round of 16. That is what usually happens to bad teams – they lose. I see no problem having more teams involved in the group stage. 

Lastly, it changes the way that European footballers look at international qualifying. It gives the opportunity for players to 1) play for their home country versus gravitating towards an eligible country to play for a better team and 2) individually lift their country on the big stage. Wales is my most obvious example – they are hardly a one-man team, but the star of the show is clearly Gareth Bale. Given that UEFA has 13 places in the World Cup, it’s unlikely Bale’s Wales would ever qualify, and with just three more places in the Euros previously, they didn’t have much of a chance either as they are currently stuck in Pot 4. However, with the additional places, Bale has the potential to push the team into the tournament and light up the continental stage. How many times have you seen a player raise his game to push his team past a better opponent? They may not all make it, but now the continent’s best players will at least have the opportunity to qualify. In the end, we could have a tournament featuring players like Bale, Robert Lewandowski, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Cristiano Ronaldo, and David Alaba, none of whom are on the continent’s best teams. Plus two-time defending champions Spain, and World Champions Germany. Who would turn that off?

The change is already paying off. We’ve seen a number of upsets already, and the games are generally closer. Going forward, it’s hard to see teams like Germany and the Netherlands running a near-perfect slate through qualifying. This change to the rules has made the qualifying process more competitive, and should make European teams better on the global stage.

Through three match days, I list the group leaders. Just one team from the first pot currently leads their group – that really says it all.

Group A – Iceland

Group B – Wales

Group C – Slovakia

Group D – Poland

Group E – England

Group F – Northern Ireland

Group G – Austria

Group H – Croatia

Group I – Denmark

Not exactly your world powers? 

PS: The abandonment of the Serbia - Albania game today was the most foreseeable cancellation for quite some time. Why they are even playing each other is beyond me.

WORLD CUP - Saying Goodbye to Brazil & Final Preview

Everything seemed to be going to plan before Brazil faced Germany in the first semifinal.

Then, after a 7-1 beatdown, the hosts' hopes were smashed into tiny little pieces. So what happened?

Well, it seems as though Brazil coach Scolari went for an all-or-nothing strategy from the beginning, which on its own is just silly. He chose Bernard ahead of Willian which is understandable, but still a poor choice. Bernard had only played briefly in the tournament and did not pose much of a threat, whereas Willian has a year of Premier League experience under his belt. For the first few minutes, Brazil had the ball and controlled the game. But once they gave the ball up, it was, to be kind, a mess. The first goal they conceded was basic defending - David Luiz lost track of Muller, allowing him to tap it in from six yards out. How do you leave the opponents' leading scorer all alone?

The second goal was well worked by the Germans, but still showed Brazil's unwillingness to defend. Klose fired off a quick shot which Cesar saved, but no one picked up Klose for the rebound for him to tap in. Marcelo had kept Klose onside to begin with, then watched him shoot twice right in front of him.

From that point on, it was always going to be difficult, but Brazil simply gave up. Luiz, tearful at the end of the game, claimed that Brazil "had given everything, but didn't make it." That is just not true. They did not give everything, and while this Brazil team will always be haunted by the scoreline of the game, it is that attitude that is the most damning. Germany blew a four-goal lead to Sweden in a half-hour at home during qualifying; there was no reason to give up. Their defense was scrambling all over the place whenever Germany possessed the ball. Four of the five first half goals for Germany were tap ins. Honestly, if I didn't know the names of the teams or the stage of the game I would have thought that either this was a pro team against an amateur team or that Brazil was throwing the game. After the break they were better but still not hustling. Neuer made some good saves but Schurrle's two goals were more lazy defending by Dante and Luiz. The absence of Thiago Silva was going to matter much more than the storyline favorite Neymar, and while his absence alone did not cause the heavy defeat, it certainly played a major role. Dante had no clue, Luiz couldn't mark anyone and Maicon and Marcelo were constantly caught up the field and leaving their partners out to dry. The midfield was just as bad.

Everyone who reads this blog knows I picked Brazil, and have been saying so for about a year. They were out to erase memories of 1950, where their crushing 2-1 defeat to Uruguay left the nation shocked and saddened. They certainly erased those memories - they made more painful ones, which wasn't thought to be possible.

The biggest beneficiary to this Brazil debacle, other than the Germans and any people who dislike Brazil, is Luis Suarez. World Cups are remembered for the winners and the story lines, and while there have been nice stories like Costa Rica's run to the quarterfinals, the USA's advancement from a tough group, and rising star James Rodriguez, the biggest story line was the bite Suarez inflicted on Giorgio Chiellini's back. Now, that will fade to the background, as this will always be the World Cup where Brazil was humiliated. Suarez has moved on to Barcelona and can start again after his four month ban. Brazil can not.

The Netherlands - Argentina game was pretty dull. I was surprised the Dutch didn't try to attack more, and even more so when Louis Van Gaal used his final substitution to bring on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Even if Tim Krul couldn't replicate his performance against Costa Rica, he would at least have a psychological edge in the shootout. Van Gaal didn't have his team attack enough to justify not saving a substitution for Krul. Argentina were decent but lacked cutting edge. They did have a perfectly good goal by Gonzalo Higuain wrongly ruled out for offside. They kept a third straight clean sheet, and it's that type of defensive work that will be needed against the Germans.

The third place game should be interesting, but all of the focus is on the final. I think Brazil will play better but still lose to the Netherlands. The Dutch have performed well against Brazil and I expect the hosts to still be a bit shocked.

Germany - Argentina

A rematch of the 1986 and 1990 World Cup Finals, one won by West Germany and the other by Argentina. These two sides were probably the second and third favorites after Brazil at the start of the tournament. Germany has impressed throughout this summer's event - defensively controlling games through the midfield while also clinically finishing their opportunities. Argentina haven't been nearly as convincing, but five victories by a one-goal margin and the shootout victory have gotten them here.

At this point, Germany has to be a big favorite. There is a possibility of a let down after such a large victory, but Germany is clicking on all cylinders. They could have scored ten against Brazil and have played better in each of the last three games. Argentina will have fantastic support from their fans and Messi is always a threat.

I can see either side winning this game but Germany looks like the better side. After defeating Brazil, they have proved themselves as the best team in the world, and their midfield is dominant. I don't see Argentina's midfield being able to possess the ball for long stretches like they have in previous games. Argentina's hopes lie in their attacking players. Messi can make a play at any time, and even though he has not played well thus far, so can Aguero. Higuain will probably start up top but expect Aguero at some point. Their pace could cause some problems but I expect Germany to control the game.

Final Prediction: Germany 2, Argentina 0

Trivia: Germany and Argentina are meeting for a third time in the World Cup Final, the most matchups between any two sides. Who are the two teams that have played each other twice in World Cup Finals? (All other matchups have only happened once.)

Last post's answer was Asamoah Gyan, of Ghana. He has scored six goals in the World Cup, including one in this year's tournament.

WORLD CUP - Changes for Brazil & Semifinal Preview

Four powerhouses are in the semi finals. Hosts Brazil will face Germany on Tuesday, while the Netherlands play Argentina on Wednesday. A team from South America has yet to be eliminated by a non-South American opponent, and if Brazil and Argentina go through it will not happen during this tournament. These matchups are very tight and should be low scoring - the quarterfinals produced just five goals in the four games, with every game decided by a goal or less.

The story in the Brazilian media is the loss of Neymar due to a broken vertebrae. I think this loss should be downplayed. Neymar is Brazil's best attacker and most iconic player, but while Neymar is Brazil, Brazil is not Neymar. He has created the most chances of any player in the tournament thus far, but I do not see the jump down from his ability to Bernard or Willian, his likely replacements, as being steep. It also looks like Neymar's loss could provide Brazilian fans with a source of pride and motivation, as they have had little to be excited about thus far.

The big loss is the absence of Thiago Silva from Brazil's defense. Silva stabilizes the middle of that line and with the sometimes marauding David Luiz as his partner, he is the constant. He's also a fantastic defender and widely regarded as the best in the world. Dante is the likely replacement, and the Bayern man will have to be up to the task of stopping Thomas Muller.

Louis Van Gaal claimed he would have rather seen arch-rivals Belgium go through, and I believe him. Holland would much rather play a European team that they know after playing two CONCACAF sides and squeaking through on each occasion. It hasn't been easy in the knockout stage. Argentina made in five one-goal wins in a row and despite being called "ordinary" by Belgium manager Marc Wilmots, they are improving as this tournament moves forward.

Brazil – Germany

Joachim Low moved Philipp Lahm back to his natural right back position, and with Toni Kroos and Bastian Schweinsteiger controlling the midfield, Germany dominated France through the middle. I was disappointed with France’s lack of ambition throughout the game but was equally impressed with Germany’s defensive prowess. I thought their midfield might be a concern heading into this tournament but with Schweinsteiger looking much more healthy and Mats Hummels dominating the back line, this team has been sound in the defensive third. They have had some close calls but they look very difficult to break down, especially with Manuel Neuer in goal.

Brazil will be short their best attacking player but there are other options. If he is healthy, Willian should replace Neymar and Brazil should keep their same shape. Willian created the second-most chances for Chelsea this past season behind Eden Hazard and plays with a similar style. The other option would be to bring in Paulinho and play with three holding midfielders, but I think this is too defensive against a side that is already going to be tough to break down. Brazil needs flair and creativity. Dante will need to be sturdy and David Luiz, who has been excellent thus far, must show discipline.

This looks to me like the moment of truth for both of these sides. After playing in cruise control through their first four matches, Brazil finally appeared themselves against Colombia. I expect them to play with similar physicality against the Germans. Germany has played better to this point, but will face a raucous crowd in Belo Horizonte. Germany could be slightly better right now, but I am still going with the hosts. Fireworks could be in store, but Brazil typically take part in tight, low-scoring semifinal. Brazil, 1-0.

Netherlands – Argentina

The Dutch were dominant but were nearly knocked out by a feisty Costa Rica side. However, the difference in quality was obvious and their superior fitness was evident in the shootout. Tim Krul came in to stop two of the five penalties while guessing correctly each time. Louis Van Gaal can never be underestimated as a coach, and it was no surprise when he revealed that Krul had been his plan all along. Argentina has not been as clever, but their defense has been surprisingly stout en route to back-to-back 1-0 wins over European opponents. It was a workman-type performance against the Belgians, but Argentina never appeared uncomfortable and Lionel Messi has continued his stellar form into the knockout stages. Some of his long dribbling runs were mesmerizing and his initial play led to Gonzalo Higuain’s winner. He has lived up to his reputation as a one man show in this tournament.

I don’t see anything changing for Argentina. The loss of Angel Di Maria is important but hardly fatal – Argentina have plenty of attacking players and it looks as though Sergio Aguero will be fit again. Holland have been far less convincing and their young defense will be in for a tough day. The Dutch defeated Uruguay 3-2 at this stage in 2010 and if there's a game in the semifinals with some scoring, I would expect it to be this one. If they are to go through, Robin Van Persie has to play significantly better. I don't think he will, and home advantage will rule again. Argentina, 2-1.

I'm sticking with my original guess at the beginning of the tournament - a Brazil-Argentina final. What a wild one that would be.

Trivia: Name the all-time leading World Cup goal scorer that isn’t from South America or Europe. (Hint: He played in this summer’s World Cup)

Last week’s answer: Norway. Brazil is 0-2-2 against the Norwegians, losing their one World Cup meeting 2-1 in 1998.

World Cup Round of 16 Recap, Reflections on USA and Quarterfinal Preview

Most exciting Round of 16 in my memory - that's for sure. Five of the eight matches went into extra time, two were decided on penalties, but somehow all eight of the group winners managed to go through. Defeat was cruelest on Chile, who hit the post in the last minute of extra time and then watched Gonzalo Jara's deciding penalty bounce off the inside of the right post and out. Eleven of the eighteen goals scored came in the 90th minute or later. Unbelievable drama.

I must say, as a USA fan, there was nothing left to give. It was heartbreaking to see the side go out given the chances they created in the final fifteen minutes, but there could be no argument over who the better side was. USA is making up a lot of ground in a short period of time - two tournaments in a row now they have gone past the group stage and three of their last four. They led Brazil 2-0 at the half in the 2009 Confederations Cup Final before going down 3-2, which came just after a 2-0 win over Euro 2008 champions Spain. These are moments that USA players and fans could not have dreamed of twenty or so years ago.

That being said, the gap is still there, and talent wise it is massive. The bottom line is that we had one forward who belonged in the team, and without Jozy, we were left with Dempsey, who is not a pure number 9, and a group of strikers who don't have a place on the top level of football. We brought on Chris Wondolowski, who is a poacher and good positioned forward, but no sort of elite talent. Belgium brought on Romelu Lukaku, a forward for Chelsea with a deadly combination of pace and strength. The future is very bright for the USA if their young players continue to develop and bring the sort of positive attitude to the game that we saw from Yedlin, Johnson and Green.

My last point about the USA is this whole notion of "we don't win because the talent plays other sports." That is completely false. There are 300 million people in this country; there are just under 17 million in Holland. Which country has an extremely decorated history in this sport? Football is not a game of talent and physicality - it comes from culture, time and experience. The USA team clearly has unity and fighting spirit - it is just missing the last bit of culture that comes from generations of experience at the top level.  Jurgen Klinsmann is bringing that bit of culture to this team and demanding it be more positive, and to stop giving too much "respect" to their opponents. This is exactly what is needed to bring the team from hopeful underdogs to a legitimate power. He is speeding up the process. By 2018, we should see a more comfortable USA, and hopefully we won't get such a demanding draw.

Anyway, we have three teams from South America, four from Europe, and one from good ol' CONCACAF. The South American sides were knocked out by other teams from their continent, and one more will go down this round after Brazil plays Colombia. I expect three of these four matchups to be absolute dynamite (guess the odd one out).

France – Germany 

France stayed perfect by seeing off Nigeria 2-0 but were slightly off of the pace. They had the better of the play for nearly the whole game but their two goals were from poor Nigerian mistakes and they were tested at the other end several times. Germany have not played a complete game since their 4-0 thumping of Portugal, and were inches away from going behind to Algeria in the first half. This is truly a matchup of titans and should be a testy affair.

I mentioned before this tournament that I saw a weakness in Germany in their holding midfield. Joachim Low has tried to play Philipp Lahm in that role and it has simply not worked. Lahm is a much better right back than holding midfield player, and with Sami Khedira out of form and Schweinsteiger playing injured, there is an obvious deficiency. France have Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi waiting to gobble them up. France have a strong, physical team and are playing better at the moment. Although he did not score against Nigeria, Karim Benzema was a threat all game and should find his way onto the score sheet here. France, 2-0.

Brazil – Colombia

Colombia are the tournament’s new dark horse. Cast aside by many, including myself, after losing star striker Radamel Falcao in February, Colombia has won all four of their games so far, scored at least twice in each, and has the tournament’s leading scorer and rising young star, James Rodriguez. Their next challenge? Tournament hosts and favorites Brazil, who have failed to impress in any of their fixtures so far. They will try to break the World Cup streak of eight straight losses for a team that won a penalty shootout in its last match – the last to win was France in 1998.

I can’t go against the hosts yet. They have lost just twice to Colombia in twenty-five matches and haven’t lost at home in a competitive match to anyone since 1975. Colombia have impressed me, but I don’t think any of their opponents were as good as they were believed to be before the tournament started. Brazil haven’t played the stiffest competition either, but the home support has been able to help the side squeeze out results. This little Copa America is a tough test for the hosts, but if they can click into gear now, they will be ready to go on to win the tournament. Brazil, 2-1.

Argentina – Belgium

This is just a great matchup. Similar teams with pacey wingers and loads of world class attacking talent. Belgium and Argentina are each a perfect four-for-four so far in this tournament, and interestingly, each side has won each of their games by a one-goal margin. Argentina were just good enough to find the late winner against the Swiss, while Belgium held on for dear life in the final fifteen minutes against USA after dominating the first 105. Are they out of energy?

Argentina have had strong fan support throughout the tournament, contrasted by the home Brazilian fans rooting against them. Belgium have a very strong side and will be difficult to penetrate. I expect a low scoring game. Both of these sides have created plenty of chances but few finishing touches. Fitness is about even given that both sides just played extra time and had wrapped up their respective groups after two games. This could go either way, but I will give the edge to the Argentines in South America. Argentina, 1-0.

Netherlands – Costa Rica

The Dutch struggled through most of their game against Mexico before finding two goals in the last five minutes of the game to turn it around. The penalty was courtesy of a trademark Arjen Robben flop, but I guess that is to be expected. Can’t be too upset when it happens to a player like Marquez. Costa Rica have slowed down every game, but turned in a valiant performance with ten men against Greece, winning the penalty shootout 5-3.

While Colombia is the fashionable dark horse, Costa Rica are the Cinderella story, hoping to knock off a third European powerhouse. I would really like to see them go through but I bet against them because I think they’re out of gas. After playing over an hour with ten men in the last round, plus the deteriorating level of performances as this tournament has gone on, it’s difficult to see them going through here. The Dutch have more rest, more ability, and more experience. Louis Van Gaal’s troops should be in the semifinals. Netherlands, 3-0.

I am going to add a trivia question to my posts from now on. The answer will come in the next post, or Google it if you’re impatient. This post’s question is:

Who is the only team Brazil have played, and not beaten?