Euro 2016: More Teams, Fewer Favorites

Euro 2016 is the first European tournament to be held with 24 entrants, up from 16 in the previous few versions. There will also be an extra knock-out round; the best four third-placed teams will qualify from the group stage along with the winners and runners-up of each of the six groups. As I noted in a previous post, the expansion to a 24-team final tournament strongly increased the level of play in qualifying, and we will see a number of nations in this year’s edition that had never previously qualified – Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and Wales all make their first appearance in the tournament. This is a positive for a number of reasons, namely that more people get to take participate and dream of their country bringing home the cup. 
 

While I believe the gap between the top sides in Europe and the weaker sides in this tournament has closed, there isn’t much to choose from after Germany and France. The Germans come in confident after their triumph in the 2014 World Cup and have the strongest and deepest roster in Europe. It was shocking to see them lose their aggregate tie in qualifying to the Republic of Ireland, a team I rank as one of the weaker sides to qualify. However, the Germans still won Group D and deserve their label as favorites coming off their World Cup victory. A recent friendly loss to Slovakia shouldn’t be looked into too deeply. France, as hosts, won the World Cup in 1998 and look to repeat that task this summer. The team has gone through more than enough ups and downs in previous tournaments and it seems to be time to get down to business – everyone is sick of the melodramatic stigma that surrounds this team. The midfield is stacked, led by Juventus’s Paul Pogba, and Antoine Griezmann is in the form of his career for Atletico Madrid. The French are my pick to win the tournament.

Spain just looks old to me. The two-time defending champs struggled in the World Cup and their forward line is surprisingly thin. Their qualifying group was particularly weak and they split their matches with the second-best side, Slovakia. No one in their right mind can pick England. I like the roster – it looks stronger than previous tournaments – but there’s that inevitable sense of failure looming. Maybe Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy can change that? They’re in a very tough group and were truly dreadful in Brazil. Belgium, Portugal and Italy are the last three sides that could be considered as possible contenders, but Belgium is still young, Portugal has little else outside of Ronaldo and Italy is lacking the quality you’d expect out of an Italian team.

There are a few dark horses in this tournament. Croatia has a wealth of talent in midfield and experience up front with Mario Mandzukic. They have failed to live up to expectations since their quarterfinal appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and crashing out in the group stages of Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup. Croatia placed third in Euro 1998 and could make a deep run in France again. They have the talent to win the tournament and while that is a lofty expectation, a semi-final appearance seems likely to me. Switzerland is another team that could make a much deeper run than expected. Their group is weak other than France, whom they lost to 5-2 in 2014. Romania and Albania shouldn’t be any issue for the experienced Swiss side, and a runners-up position in the group would likely pit them against Poland or Ukraine. A quarterfinal appearance seems reasonable, and would surpass expectations for a side that managed to hold Argentina for 116 minutes in the World Cup before losing 1-0.

France should win Group A easily. They crushed the Swiss in the World Cup (the 5-2 score line understated the play on the field) and Romania won’t be able to score against them. Albania is the worst team in the tournament by some distance. They qualified mostly due to the fact that their group was bad and they were the beneficiaries of an unfortunate incident involving Serbia. Romania has gotten steadily weaker over the last two decades and I haven’t seen anything to convince me a turnaround is coming. They can pack it in defensively but that’s about it. Switzerland should advance along with the French. Group B is a wildcard. You never know what you’re going to get from England, and their first match against the regularly underperforming Russian side should give us a good idea. The matchup with Wales on June 16 will be dynamite, and the one-man show of Gareth Bale will need to be on top form to advance. Other than a bizarre home loss to Belarus, Slovakia was solid in qualifying and presents a very balanced opponent. Martin Skrtel and Marek Hamsik are the cornerstones of the side, and both are experienced, talented players. Russia always seems to underachieve in major tournaments and this group presents a greater challenge than they faced in Brazil. I’m going to take England to win the group and advance with Slovakia, but I’m prepared to hear the England fans moaning if they blow it against the Welsh. They’ll never hear the end of that. But Group B could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Poland and Germany split two matches in qualifying and they will play again in Group C, also on June 16. The Poles have steadily improved over the last few years and with Robert Lewandowski leading the lines, they will be an entertaining team to watch. Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland are boring and bad, so I’m hoping that the Germans and Poles find their way through. The Irish won what was the worst European qualifying group I’ve ever seen, and while their progress deserves accolades, it doesn’t make them any better. The best side they managed to beat was Hungary (who I rank 23 out of the 24 teams that qualified). Ukraine is a bit better but there were just 18 total goals in their 10 qualifying matches, with six of them coming in a pair of 3-0 wins against Luxembourg. Can’t say I’m excited to watch Ukraine play, although Andriy Yarmolenko can make them bearable to watch. Ukraine did have success against Poland in 2013 but the teams have been going in opposite directions since then. Thankfully, Germany and Poland are the best two teams in the group and should head through. Group D is very interesting. Spain will try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit in Brazil, but their squad doesn’t look too intimidating to me. Diego Costa will not go to France, and while he has struggled with injuries, finishing, and keeping his head on straight over the last twelve months, his absence leaves Spain heavily reliant on Juventus forward Alvaro Morata. An aging midfield behind him does not inspire me, and a 1-0 loss to Georgia in their final tune-up could prove to be an eerie sign. The Czechs and Turks also faced off in qualifying, with each side winning at the other’s ground. Turkey seems to play well in tournaments so they could be a dark horse in this group. I see Croatia as the best team in the group. Some combination of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic will form what looks like the best midfield in Europe. Croatia faces Spain on June 21, likely to determine the group’s winner. I like the Croats to beat the Spanish and win the group, with Spain second.

Group E is another very balanced group. Belgium and Italy face each other first on June 13 in what should be an exciting contest. It could go either way, and we should see plenty of goals. Sweden and Ireland played one another in World Cup qualifying in 2013 and the Swedes came out on top, winning in Ireland and securing a draw at home. What would this tournament be without Zlatan? He’d be the first to tell you it would be boring and not worth watching, so let’s hope his final Euros turns out to be a memorable one. The problem is, Sweden just isn’t very good, and although they were in a tough qualifying group and were the only side to take a point from Austria, they won just five of their ten matches and had to beat Scandinavian rivals Denmark in a playoff just to qualify. Ireland has put up some very good results, beating Germany during qualifying and knocking out a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina side in the playoffs. They haven’t been nearly as good outside of Ireland, and this group is particularly tough. Despite their respective issues, Belgium and Italy will be heavy favorites to advance and I expect both sides to do so.

Lastly, Group F strongly resembles Group D in the Copa America – there are two very strong sides and two rather inept ones. Portugal will always be a threat with Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Austria is their only formidable opponent. Austria ran off nine wins and a draw in ten qualifying matches to reach the tournament for the second time (they co-hosted in 2008). Led by Bayern Munich midfielder David Alaba, the Austrians have perhaps their best team ever. I would rank them higher but their lack of experience concerns me. The two clunkers in the group are Iceland and Hungary. Iceland had a great run in qualifying, but I expect them to come down to Earth. Their two wins against the Netherlands say more about the state of the Dutch side than the prowess of their own play. Iceland has some stars but no real experience to draw upon. Hungary came in third in that awful qualifying group that Northern Ireland won. They scored only 11 goals in 10 matches and qualified by beating a poor Norway side. This isn’t the Hungarian side from the 1950’s. Iceland has a better shot at causing a shock but Portugal and Austria are a few steps above both teams.

I picked the hosts in Brazil and felt pretty dumb afterwards so I’m hoping this isn’t a repeat. France has the fortune of an easy group to get the home crowd behind the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have a squad of their caliber. Overall, I expect this tournament to be less predictable than the Copa America – these teams don’t play each other in competitive atmospheres very often and there are eight more teams involved. That means eight additional styles of play, numerous additional superstars that could win a game single-handedly and ultimately what should be a very fun tournament to watch. The Germans are the betting favorite but this is the type of year where you could see an underdog take the trophy.

International Review - FIFA World Cup Qualification

There were a number of intriguing international results in this week's games. This was expected because the matchups were far more even than previous weeks - the first two days were primarily made up of heavy victories for the bigger countries. However, there are some results to pull out of the pile that may have long-term significance.

Result: Romania 1-4 Netherlands

What it means: The Romanians and Dutch both started with three wins from three, and this game was a test to see if the Romanians were for real after several years of domestic scandal and international turmoil. They failed - miserably. The Dutch dominated the game and showed that there is a large difference in quality between the two sides. It is not devastating for the Romanians - they are level on points with second-place Hungary, who lost to the Dutch by the same scoreline in September. Holland showed yet again that despite some of their stars aging, this is still one of the premier teams in Europe. Last year's disastrous showing at the Euros is behind them and they are a full-go for the World Cup. They will have no trouble qualifying from this group and could possibly go ten for ten.

Result: Ukraine 0-1 Montenegro

What it means: Montenegro go level on points at the top of Group H with England while Ukraine fall five points off the pace. Group H features both hosts of last summer's European Championship, but Montenegro are out to prove that their play-off appearance in the qualification for that tournament was no fluke. Montenegro are never going to overwhelm the public with their style of play, but they are very solid at the back and rarely concede more than one goal. This is a huge win to pick up away from home. For Ukraine, the first three qualification games have brought some bright spots but very poor results. Their 1-1 draw in England was a solid performance and a good result, but that was countered by a poor 0-0 draw in Moldova. Now this loss sets them back quite a bit. There is very little margin for error left for the Ukrainians if they wish to finish in the top two.

Result: Germany 4-4 Sweden

What it means: Definitely the most shocking result of the day - not because Sweden was able to gain a point, but because they trailed by four goals with a half hour remaining and somehow managed to snatch an equalizer in stoppage time. A truly improbable and spectacular comeback from the Swedes, who looked to be in a bit of trouble after struggling through a 2-1 win against the Faroes on Friday. The Germans will still be favorites in this group but questions must be asked of their defense in the second half - we know they can score but their defense was all over the place in the second half and Manuel Neuer had one of his worst games in goal. This seems like more of a wake-up call than anything for Germany. They have been progressing quickly with a very young batch of players and this could be a reminder that they need to continue working hard in order to reach their goal of winning a major trophy. Look for the Germans to improve immensely on the defensive end of the field as they win this group.

Result: Spain 1-1 France

What it means: Olivier Giroud's last-second equalizer gave France a draw in Spain, meaning a win in the return fixture would likely give the French an automatic spot in the World Cup. For the French, the performance was just as key as the result. France played with Spain with most of the match, although they were kept in it by Fabregas's missed penalty (which followed an abysmal challenge by Koscielny on Pedro). They had more possession than was expected and dominated the last twenty minutes. It's a very encouraging sign for Didier Deschamps. For Spain, they must know that a target will be on their back wherever they go, having won the last three major tournaments. Their key players should still be young enough (and effective enough) to feature at the World Cup, but games like this are a reminder

Result: Portugal 1-1 Northern Ireland

What it means: Portugal trip over a very short hurdle at home against Northern Ireland, dropping them into third in Group F. It seems that in every qualification, Portugal have a game like this - for Euro 2012 it was a 4-4 draw against Cyprus. One bad result is typically not killer, but these types of performances have been preventing Portugal from coming in first in their groups, forcing them to qualify through the playoffs. If Portugal ever want to be on the same level as their Iberian neighbors, they must be more disciplined and ruthless to take three points from this game. It's not as if this is the Northern Ireland that defeated Spain and England in the last decade. They drew with Luxembourg in their last match.

Result: USA 3-1 Guatemala

What it means: The USA are through to the next round of CONCACAF qualifying while Guatemala is out. The USA needed this win and got it - it was not as easy as it should have been but the result is what mattered. The more I see the USA, the more I find it hard to imagine them winning a game without Clint Dempsey. The man has come into his own over the last twelve months, moving into a more forward position (and thriving) at Fulham and playing the same role with the USA and Tottenham. He is by far the most important player on this team, which is a testament to his form, but also to the lack of form from the rest of the squad. Dempsey himself mentioned the team being occasionally "jet-lagged" for their away fixtures, as many more players than ever before are playing in Europe. Whatever the issue is, it must be sorted out immediately, because if the Americans don't start playing to a much higher level, they may miss out on the World Cup. While I do believe they will squeak through, temper your expectations.

Result: Bolivia 4-1 Uruguay

What it means: Lowly Bolivia hammered South American champs Uruguay, meaning they have now conceded eleven goals in their last three away fixtures in qualifying. Uruguay are now barely in the qualification places, only because Chile has been just as awful. You do see some shocks in South America but this question re-asks the questions about Uruguay's midfield. We know they have the forwards to compete with anyone but to better their fourth-place finish in the World Cup, they will need to strengthen their defensive strategy. For Bolivia, this is an unlikely lifeline. They are only four points behind with plenty of matches to go. Stranger things have happened.

UEFA Euro 2012 - Final

Tomorrow's final features the last two World Cup winners - defending WC and Euro champion Spain and 2006 winners Italy. Both teams came from Group C, and played each other in the first game of the tournament, which ended in a 1-1 draw. The Italians were clearly on top for the first half, with Spain struggling to play without a striker. In the second half, Spain responded to an Italian goal by throwing on Torres, which helped their shape and got them an equalizer.

Spain have played throughout this tournament without a striker, but have been very poor, especially the last two games. Against Portugal they started with a striker (Negredo) and created next to nothing. Spain's passing game can be devastating when they have a lead, but without David Villa, Spain have struggled in this tournament to put passes together in the final third. Italy, who were a huge mystery due to a number of younger players in the squad and the match-fixing scandal hanging over Serie A, have played wonderfully throughout the tournament. Once again, the Italians have responded to scandal by making their countrymen proud, and their only "poor" performance was against England, and they still were able to boss the flow of the game.

The key match-up is going to be in the midfield, with Italy's Andrea Pirlo making his case for player of the tournament with his instrumental passing, against Spain's legendary tandem of Xavi and Andres Iniesta. Both Spain and Italy try and dominate possession, and while Italy will likely concede more possession to the Spanish than against other teams, they will not simply sit back and try and counter. They did a solid job of breaking up the Spanish passing game in the opener and will adopt a similar tactical style. Spain will have more possession, but their fight will be to have more meaningful possession. Spain always has a higher number of passes than its opponent, but many of the passes are back and forth between the back line. With just three goals in their last three games, Spain must find a way to move the ball vertically down the field.

The biggest question going into the match will be what formation Spain decides to play. They have struggled in the 4-6 formation, creating very little against Portugal and, despite scoring against France, had just nine shots against a very poor French performance. Del Bosque inexplicably started Negredo against Portugal, and the team improved after his departure. Will he go with Torres, who scored two against the Republic of Ireland but failed to score (or make any kind of impact) in his other spells of play? Or will he stick with Fabregas, who started the first game against Italy, and maintain the possessive, slow-building style that has characterized Spain for the tournament? Italy have no such issue, as Mario Balotelli's brace against Germany must surely affirm his place in the starting line-up. He proved very clinical against the Germans, capitalizing on his two best chances for the winning goals. He had a very poor showing against Spain in the first game, but his performances have improved throughout the tournament, and he should be a menace to deal with.

PREDICTION

Tracking back to my pre-tournament post, I selected two teams from the same group to be in the final - but it was the wrong group, Group B. The Dutch were the huge disappointment of the tournament, losing all three games in the group, while Germany fell to the Italians in the semi-finals. Spain was never matched up with anyone who had the midfield power to beat them, while the Italians have responded better than imagined to the developments on and off the field. Spain have won their last two finals, both 1-0, against the Germans and the Dutch, respectively. Italy have not lost to Spain in a competitive match since 1920. Spain will have more possession in the game, but if they start without a striker, it will be difficult to get the ball past the Italian defense and world-class goalie Gianluigi Buffon. Italy's chances in this game are resting on their ability to take their chances. They did not in their first match-up with Spain or their quarterfinal against England, but did so against Germany. They will have their opportunities against an average Spanish defense, and they must take them.

Finals are often nervy, low-scoring encounters, especially in international football. I really hope it isn't because Spain can put me to sleep when they decide to just pass the ball around in circles. I think they will play their 4-6, with Fabregas up top, and if they are unable to score by the 65th minute or so, Del Bosque will throw Torres on to improve the attacking options. Italy and Spain played to a 0-0 draw in their last competitive meeting, with Spain advancing in Euro 2008 on penalties. Despite history being on the side of the Italians, I'm picking Spain in this final in a very disappointing game. I will be rooting for the Italians though, both for the entertainment and my own personal preference.

Prediction: Spain 1, Italy 0

UEFA Euro 2012 - Extensive Preview

The club season has come to a close and it is time for the summer's international showpiece, UEFA's Euro 2012. It should be a good, competitive tournament - it is very much up for grabs. Spain are favorites after winning the last edition as well as the 2010 World Cup. Germany and Holland are also looking strong, and after that, there is a noticeable drop-off. Hosts Poland and Ukraine are not particularly deep or full of quality, while typical powerhouses are in transition phases. England is crippled by injury, France are rebuilding from their disastrous World Cup campaign, and Italy are in the midst of another scandal. There could be a dark horse this year, but the three favorites should go deep in this tournament.

GROUP A

Teams: Poland, Russia, Greece, Czech Republic

Who will advance: Poland, Russia

Why:

Group A looks to be the weakest of the four, with hosts Poland being drawn out of the first pot, Russia perhaps the weakest in Pot 2, Greece not looking as strong as their past few tournaments and the Czechs qualifying through the play-offs. As hosts, Poland have a clear advantage but also may lack freshness due to a lack of competitive matches. Russia snuck up on their opponents in Euro 2008, and that is unlikely to happen again - but the Russians do have the most talented side in the group. However, that side is aging, which could work for or against them. Both the Greeks and Czechs are strong defensive squads but have many questions in the attacking half of the field. Greece lined up with five men in defense against Armenia in their most recent friendly, perhaps a preview of the tactics they will bring to Poland. We can only hope not. Overall, this group has the potential to be the most exciting or the most dull. It could be very exciting because these teams have around the same level of quality, leading to tight games and the opportunity for anyone to advance. On the other hand, it could be painful to watch because these squads lack lots of quality and are more defense-first tactically, leading to games with few chances. I think Poland finds their way through here with the home field advantage, and Russia can use their experienced squad to get through against some mediocre opposition.

GROUP B

Teams: Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Denmark

Who will advance: Germany, Netherlands

Why:

This year's "group of death" is certainly Group B, featuring two of the bookies favorites, Netherlands and Germany, along with Ronaldo's perennial dark-horse Portugal and my pre-drawing dark horse Denmark. Germany's young squad took fans by storm in the World Cup, crushing England and Argentina before falling to Spain in the semi-finals. The Dutch fell just short in the final of that tournament, and the form and experience of players such as Robin Van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, and Arjen Robben will encourage their supporters to believe they can take home the trophy. Portugal are always dangerous because of Ronaldo, who can occasionally win a game on his own but has also struggled to have the same impact on the international stage as he has had in club football. Denmark won their group in qualifying and have a number of young stars that have starred in Europe. However, I will relinquish my attitude towards the Danes because they are too young to perform well in a group like this. It's simply bad luck, and while it is certainly not impossible for Denmark to qualify, it looks like a very tough mission. Despite its number of stars, Portugal tends to adopt a negative approach when facing equal or greater opposition, and this group puts them in a real bind, as there is no North Korea to beat 7-0 to bail them out. Very poor showings against Macedonia and Turkey do nothing to give me any confidence in this squad, and they could very well wind up in last. Netherlands and Germany look like tournament favorites and they live up to that expectation. They face off in their second match likely to decide who wins the group.

GROUP C

Teams: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Ireland

Who will advance: Spain, Italy

Why:

Despite a slight dip in form, Spain are favorites after winning Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup, and this group doesn't look too scary. Italy are ushering in a new generation, and are now under the scope of the authorities after yet another match-fixing scandal. Croatia have a number of quality play-makers and have just as good of a chance as Italy of advancing, but have lacked the consistency to go far in major tournaments. Ireland are happy to be in the tournament for their first appearance since 1988. The Irish are unbeaten in fourteen matches and they can be optimistic about their chances, despite having arguably the tournament's weakest squad. Spain have a great team, but their first-game loss to Switzerland comes to mind, as well as Croatia's upset win over Germany in Euro 2008. There are stumbling blocks here for the Spanish, but they will still win the group. Italy has responded well to controversy in the past, winning the 1982 and 2006 World Cups following major match-fixing scandals. They don't have enough firepower to go on that sort of run, but they can squeak through this group. Croatia do have the advantage of playing Spain on the last day of group matches, as the Spanish could be qualified already and rest some of their key players. The result of the Croatia-Ireland match on the first day could be key, as both teams will go for the win to put themselves in a better position ahead of playing Spain.

GROUP D

Teams: Ukraine, England, Sweden, France

Who will advance: France, England

Why:

Group D could be the hardest group to predict. Ukraine are hosts but are weaker than their Polish co-hosts, with more of an aging, defensive side. England have quality and experience, but are looking like their typical enigma and don't exactly have a great history in major tournaments. The absence of several key players, specifically United's Wayne Rooney for two games and Chelsea men Frank Lampard and Gary Cahill, does not bode well for Roy Hodgson's side. After controversy tore apart their national team in 2010, France is looking great, currently on a 19-game unbeaten streak with a solid mix of young and old players. Sweden are a bit of a mystery as well, because there are very few household names other than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. This group could turn out in any way, but France look like the best of these teams and possess some very scary attacking talents, specifically in Benzema, Ribery, Nasri, and Giroud. France are my dark-horse pick to go far in this tournament and perhaps upset some of the tournament's favorites. France and England were paired in the same group in 2004, also following a calamitous World Cup showing by the French, and France won the contest 2-1. They will have the opportunity to repeat that performance, and I believe they will. Despite losing that game, England can still make it through this group, but it will be very tight all the way. Injuries and inexperience could end the Three Lions' tournament before the knockout stages. Ukraine and Sweden face off in their first game, and many of the mysteries about the two sides could be revealed. I don't expect either side to really surprise us though, although Ukraine have the opportunity to feed off of their insane supporters.

KNOCKOUT STAGES

I have created a bracket based on my predictions:

FINAL

Teams: Netherlands v Germany

Who will win: Germany

Why:

The Oranje and the Germans come in as two of the tournament favorites, and their respective shaky form books should be ignored (although the Dutch did just hammer Northern Ireland 6-0). The only team to stop the Germans in the past two tournaments has been the Spanish, and Germany have qualified for at least the semi-finals in their last three tournaments. If they and Spain finish first in their respective groups, their only possible meeting would be in the final. A quarterfinal match-up against any team from group A shouldn't trouble Germany, so if they can get through their tricky group, a semi-final ticket awaits. The Dutch will have qualified in second from Group B, and a match-up from a team in Group A should not worry them either. However, Spain will likely be on that side of the bracket, but Holland can get their revenge in the semi-final stage to send the defending champs out.

These teams are very equal, and both have the motivation of coming so close to glory but falling short. Many members of the German squad were on the field for Bayern Munich for their Champions League final loss against Chelsea (as was Holland's Arjen Robben) and they will be hungry to finish the job, especially if they can avoid the Spanish. The Dutch fell a goal short in the last major tournament, and it could be the last chance for the generation of Robben, Sneijder, and Huntelaar to win a European title. Ultimately, the Germans have the big game players on their side, and also boast a stronger defense, which is more important on the international stage than with clubs. If these two do meet in the final it should be a spectacle with more attacking chances than a typical international final.

Prediction: Germany 2, Netherlands 1

I will check back in after the group stages to look at how right (or wrong) I was and look at the knockout stages.

Euro 2012 Preview

Today's games went as expected - Croatia and Ireland cruised to victory after their hefty first-leg wins, the Czechs also came through without much trouble after a 1-0 win, and Portugal took care of business in a close game which blew open into a 6-2 victory. Now that the sixteen teams are set for the tournament in Ukraine and Poland next summer, I'll give a short overview of each team in the tournament.

FAVORITES: Germany, Netherlands, Spain

The world's top three sides are the favorites to win next year's tournament. Spain, the defending European and World champions, will be the overall favorite. But each of these sides has a great chance to win based on their quality and experience. Germany are the youngest side amongst the favorites, as stars Andre Schurrle, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller are still in their early twenties. The Dutch pushed Spain to the limit in the World Cup final, and mix experience in their attacking play with youth in the back. Spain have it all going for them now, and next summer's tournament could be the end of this generation's golden run. Spain will be favorites in every game they play, and will attempt to control possession and the flow of the game. The Spanish are beatable, but they will be very difficult to top if they can defend set-pieces well.

POWERS: England, France, Italy

Three traditional powers find themselves picking up the pieces from last year's World Cup. England were the only side of the three to make it out of the group stage, before falling feebly 4-1 to Germany. France seems to finally be over Raymond Domenech, and Laurent Blanc has revamped the side into a legitimate contender. With stars Karim Benzema and Samir Nasri in good form, France can play with the best in the world. It seems as if England is always amongst the top tier, but is somehow without a major championship since 1966. England are one of the more speculative sides in next year's tournament - there are quite a few players who have injuries and others who are not in good form. The squad Capello picks for the tournament could feature a variety of names. However, it seems Wayne Rooney will not be there after picking up a red card against Montenegro. Italy has come a long way since its 2006 World Cup triumph, but the Italians are starting to resemble a top side again. They breezed through qualifying, winning eight games and drawing two. Italy still has a lot to prove on the world stage, but it would be unwise to count them out of the top tiers.

PLAYERS: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Portugal, Russia, Sweden

Denmark, Greece and Russia were all group winners, but each were in a group lacking overall quality. That is not to take anything away from these sides - they are all very strong, especially in defense. Between the three sides' thirty games, they conceded fifteen goals - good for one every other game. There are no Andorras or San Marinos in Euro 2012 so we cannot expect that type of excellence, but we can expect each of these sides to be in a dogfight with whomever they play. Croatia and Portugal came through the playoffs while Sweden qualified as the best second-placed team. Portugal is probably the most talented of any of the teams on this level, but failed to showcase any consistency in the group. Sweden and Croatia are both good sides, with star power in Ibrahimovic for Sweden and Modric and Olic for Croatia.

MINNOWS: Czech Republic, Ireland, Poland, Ukraine

It's difficult to say the Czech Republic are true minnows because of their consistent ranking over the past decade, but it seems that time has gone, as the Czechs struggled through the group before taking caring of Montenegro. This is not the side of 2004 or 2006. Ireland finally qualified for the Euros for the first time since 1988, but it will not be easy for the Irish. They have proven to be a battling squad, but winning games on a stage like this will be difficult. Poland and Ukraine are the tournament's hosts, but other than home-field advantage, have little to offer in terms of optimism. Ukraine and Poland sit 58th and 64th respectively in the world rankings, the lowest two rankings of any of the teams in the tournament. It will take fantastic home support and some inspired performances in order for each of these teams to make a run.

PROJECTED CHAMPION: Germany.

This looks like Germany's tournament - they have fallen to Spain 1-0 in each of the last two major tournaments and their young players should be hitting their strides just as the summer comes around. While no European tournament is too far of a trip for the Germans, Poland and Ukraine are right next door, and Germany should have a strong supporting crowd at each of their matches. Spain will be favorites but they have won everything already - it seems like their tournament to lose and the Spanish have historically crumbled under pressure. Despite their recent winning ways, Spain could be prime for an upset.

SLEEPER: Denmark.

Denmark crashed out of the World Cup in the group stages, but with a young squad, the Danes could do some damage next summer. Nicklas Bendtner and Christian Eriksen will lead the way for the side that won Group H after a 2-1 defeat of Portugal. Denmark have the same kind of look as Turkey in 2008 - some players with big names and experience, as well as a bunch of speculation and unknown. Denmark's journey will definitely depend on their draw in the group, but this team could sneak its way into the semifinals.

BUST: England.

As mentioned above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the English side right now, not only on the field with the absence of Wayne Rooney, but off the field with the allegations against John Terry. One of the keys to a strong run in any tournament in any sport is team chemistry and continuity. England are very lacking in that department, and with its fans begging for some success on the field, it looks like another tournament gone begging for the English. A tough draw could see them not even make it through the group, but anything beyond a quarterfinal appearance is very hopeful.

All of these projections are subject to change - the drawing for the groups will have a huge impact on each team. Spain could draw a group that contains Germany, Portugal and France, or it could draw Russia, Sweden and Ireland. The four sides in Pot 2 (Germany, England, Italy, Russia) will all be hoping for Ukraine or Poland in the draw, in order to avoid Spain or Holland. I will write a revised projection about a month before the tournament, as the groups will be set and the squads will be chosen.