The third round of qualifying went nearly entirely as expected, the only surprise (to me) being Helsingborg's comprehensive win over Slask Wroclaw. The teams remaining all have a high level of quality - the only team left that I believe would be truly overmatched in the group stages would be Maribor of Slovenia. There is a great deal of experience and tradition existing in the clubs who have made it this far, which should make for another round of close ties.
The showcase match-up in the Non-Champions path is between Borussia Monchengladbach of Germany and Dynamo Kiev of Ukraine. Gladbach lost German international Marco Reus to Dortmund but acquired Luuk De Jong to lead the line, hoping to produce the same type of quality that culminated in a surprising fourth place finish in the Bundesliga. Dynamo Kiev are without the iconic Andriy Shevchenko, but have been a mainstay in European football for nearly their entire history. A tough win over Feyenoord in the last round showed Dynamo is keen to return to the group stages, while Gladbach are playing their first competitive matches of the season. This is a very tough draw for a team like Gladbach who are inexperienced in Europe, but they have the ability to pull through if they play a strong game in Germany.
For the Champions Route, I like all of the matchups to be close, although I am very confident in Dinamo Zagreb against Maribor. Zagreb have much more experience and despite being battered in losing all six group games last year, a return to that stage looks on the cards. I also expect Basel to get through; despite squeaking past Molde by the narrowest of margins, the Swiss side have much more talent and experience than Romanian counterparts CFR Cluj. The Romanian league has fallen off considerably because of a number of scandals and the quality has been substantially reduced.
The other three ties are all toss-ups. Anderlecht are favorites against AEL but you cannot ignore how Cypriot clubs have progressed to the group stage in three of the last four competitions. Anderlecht have a rich history in Belgium and in Europe, so this matchup features the most quality of the five ties. AEL have not conceded a goal in Europe yet this season (while Anderlecht put 11 goals past FK Ekranas in the last round) and could cause an upset against the Belgians. The pressure is completely on Celtic in their tie against Swedish champions Helsingborg, a matchup featuring two federations that used to dominate the continental game, but will now be reduced to just one representative in Europe's elite after this season. Celtic are Scottish football's lone strong representative, and the Swedes are a tricky opponent - Rangers were knocked out of the Champions League by Malmo in last year's edition. It is up to Celtic to uphold the dwindling reputation of the Scottish Premier League. The last matchup pits Belarussian champions BATE Borisov against debutant Israeli champs Ironi Kiryat Shmona. Both federations have made appearances in the group stage throughout the last few years, with BATE becoming the first Belarussian side to appear during the 2008-09 campaign. BATE are slight favorites, but this tie should be very tight - it could truly go either way.
Predictions:
FC Basel o/ CFR Cluj
Celtic o/ Helsingborg
Ironi Kiryat Shmona o/ BATE Borisov
AEL Limassol o/ Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb o/ Maribor
Udinese o/ Braga
Fenerbahce o/ Spartak Moscow
Malaga o/ Panathinaikos
Borussia Monchengladbach o/ Dynamo Kyiv
LOSC Lille o/ FC Copenhagen
Monday, August 20, 2012
Saturday, August 18, 2012
2012-13 Barclays Premier League - Preview
It's time for a new Premier League season, 21st since its reformation. Here is a breakdown of what I expect to see this season, which should have headlines from top to bottom:
Projected Standings:
1. Manchester City
2. Manchester United
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal
6. Newcastle
7. Tottenham
8. Everton
9. Aston Villa
10. Fulham
11. West Brom
12. QPR
13. West Ham
14. Norwich
15. Sunderland
16. Wigan
17. Stoke
18. Southampton
19. Swansea
20. Reading
FAVORITES: Manchester City, Manchester United
The two Manchester clubs finished 19 points clear of third-place Arsenal last season and look to create a similar gap in this year's table. United's signings of Shinji Kagawa and Robin Van Persie will strengthen the attack, while Nemanja Vidic returns from injury to bolster the defense. My issue with United is that they largely bought players in positions where they were already strong, while they have not offloaded excess parts nor assessed their biggest needs. United's weakness last season was defensive midfield, with Fletcher out and Scholes only coming in January, and right back - neither of which they filled. Scholes played very well after ending his retirement, but how long can he be relied upon? Rafael, Phil Jones and Chris Smalling have hardly been convincing at right back, and despite United conceding just 33 times last season, it was curious to see Sir Alex use the funds in attack. As for Van Persie, the question is his positioning in the United formation. United have not always played with two strikers, and now SAF has four very talented ones at his disposal in RVP, Rooney, Danny Welbeck and Chicharito (not even including Berbatov). How will all of these players play? It's always a great move to get a player the quality of Van Persie but his position is still to be determined.
City have largely the same squad as last year, the only major addition being Jack Rodwell from Everton (where will he play?). Top to bottom, this is still the deepest squad in the league, and the experience of last year's triumph should only boost their level of play. Although European success will definitely be prioritized at the Eastlands this year, a second straight victory over their rivals will surely come first - and this should be a close race again. City's midfield controls play much better than United's, and despite making just one major move this transfer window, City addressed its need for versatile defensive players, while United ignored their true needs for the glamorous type of signings. Just as last year, I will go with City to pip United to the title, perhaps by a few points rather than the 45 seconds that separated the two last year.
RELEGATION: Southampton, Swansea, Reading
Last year all three promoted sides survived relegation for just the second time in the Premier League's twenty year history. Expect nothing of the same this year, as West Ham is the only squad that can be comfortably expected to survive after bouncing back from their 2010-11 relegation. Southampton have repeated Norwich's feat of two straight promotions, but the squad lacks top-flight experience and have failed to strengthen in the transfer market. The possible acquisition of Gaston Ramirez from Bologna would be a huge boost for the Saints, but their season will likely be filled with relegation worry. Swansea were one of the brighter stories in the Premier League last season; after being tipped by nearly every writer to be relegated, the Swans played brilliant football and finished in 11th place, 11 points clear of the drop. However, this season could be the fateful "second season hangover" for Swansea, especially after losing midfielders Joe Allen and Gylfi Sigurdsson, as well as manager Brendan Rodgers. The Swans don't look nearly deep enough at this point and despite making moves for Chico and Jonathan De Guzman, they look primed for the drop. Reading enjoyed a great season last year in the Championship, winning the title by a point.The signing of Pavel Pogrebnyak will boost a side in need of a goal scoring threat. The Royals look much like Soton - a great season in the Championship but very little in top flight pedigree. It could be a very difficult season for Reading.
OUTPERFORM: Aston Villa
After an extremely disappointing 16th place finish last season under the maligned Alex McLeish (in which he won just 7 games), Villa have brought in Paul Lambert in hopes of turning the tide. There is a lot of talent on this team considering their finish last season, and the additions of Ron Vlaar and Karim El Ahmadi from Feyenoord will boost the team further. This team played well below their capabilities last year and look primed for a bounce back season. After a severe underperformance last season, the Villans should reclaim a spot in the top half of the table.
UNDERPERFORM: Stoke City
Stoke struggled down the stretch last season, and largely blamed the number of fixtures, which included runs into the Europa League and FA Cup, for their performance. Stoke is one of the smaller clubs in the PL and they do not have the financials to support the squad depth that other teams have, so it is easy to sympathize with Tony Pulis's men. The Potters have been posted a mid-40's point total in each of their four seasons in the top flight, and have been a model of stability for a small club, never really coming close to relegation. This season could be different for Stoke; the only major signing has been Goran Popov from Dynamo Kiev and attacking options have not been boosted, despite scoring just 36 goals in their 38 games last year - worst in the league. Stoke will continue to play their physical style this season, but without any improvements to the squad, they could be much closer to the drop then hoped.
FOURTH PLACE: Liverpool
I maintained the same projection for the top 4 as last year, and I feel much more comfortable about the top 3. As stated, City and United will most likely be fighting for the title, while Chelsea looks to have bridged the gap quite a bit with the signings of Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Marko Marin. Fourth place seems the toughest to call - and I like Liverpool again this year. Last year was a disaster for the Reds in the league, as tentative tactics led to nine draws at home with just 24 goals in 19 games. In comes Brendan Rodgers after an impressive season at Swansea - not only to revitalize but also to change Liverpool's style of play. Expect a more free flowing and positive Reds side this season, which should result in more victories. Arsenal will likely have another hangover after the departure of Van Persie, but still have more than enough experience to contend. However, selling your best player every summer has to catch up at some point, and this could be that year for the Gunners. Newcastle have kept all of the big pieces that led to a surprising sixth place finish last season, but the competition from these sides could be too much. Tottenham still have the Luka Modric situation hanging over their heads, and new manager Andre Villas-Boas has a lot to prove after the failure at Chelsea. If Rodgers is able to implement Swansea's style of play into the Liverpool players, they could enjoy a return to Champions League qualification.
Projected Standings:
1. Manchester City
2. Manchester United
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
5. Arsenal
6. Newcastle
7. Tottenham
8. Everton
9. Aston Villa
10. Fulham
11. West Brom
12. QPR
13. West Ham
14. Norwich
15. Sunderland
16. Wigan
17. Stoke
18. Southampton
19. Swansea
20. Reading
FAVORITES: Manchester City, Manchester United
The two Manchester clubs finished 19 points clear of third-place Arsenal last season and look to create a similar gap in this year's table. United's signings of Shinji Kagawa and Robin Van Persie will strengthen the attack, while Nemanja Vidic returns from injury to bolster the defense. My issue with United is that they largely bought players in positions where they were already strong, while they have not offloaded excess parts nor assessed their biggest needs. United's weakness last season was defensive midfield, with Fletcher out and Scholes only coming in January, and right back - neither of which they filled. Scholes played very well after ending his retirement, but how long can he be relied upon? Rafael, Phil Jones and Chris Smalling have hardly been convincing at right back, and despite United conceding just 33 times last season, it was curious to see Sir Alex use the funds in attack. As for Van Persie, the question is his positioning in the United formation. United have not always played with two strikers, and now SAF has four very talented ones at his disposal in RVP, Rooney, Danny Welbeck and Chicharito (not even including Berbatov). How will all of these players play? It's always a great move to get a player the quality of Van Persie but his position is still to be determined.
City have largely the same squad as last year, the only major addition being Jack Rodwell from Everton (where will he play?). Top to bottom, this is still the deepest squad in the league, and the experience of last year's triumph should only boost their level of play. Although European success will definitely be prioritized at the Eastlands this year, a second straight victory over their rivals will surely come first - and this should be a close race again. City's midfield controls play much better than United's, and despite making just one major move this transfer window, City addressed its need for versatile defensive players, while United ignored their true needs for the glamorous type of signings. Just as last year, I will go with City to pip United to the title, perhaps by a few points rather than the 45 seconds that separated the two last year.
RELEGATION: Southampton, Swansea, Reading
Last year all three promoted sides survived relegation for just the second time in the Premier League's twenty year history. Expect nothing of the same this year, as West Ham is the only squad that can be comfortably expected to survive after bouncing back from their 2010-11 relegation. Southampton have repeated Norwich's feat of two straight promotions, but the squad lacks top-flight experience and have failed to strengthen in the transfer market. The possible acquisition of Gaston Ramirez from Bologna would be a huge boost for the Saints, but their season will likely be filled with relegation worry. Swansea were one of the brighter stories in the Premier League last season; after being tipped by nearly every writer to be relegated, the Swans played brilliant football and finished in 11th place, 11 points clear of the drop. However, this season could be the fateful "second season hangover" for Swansea, especially after losing midfielders Joe Allen and Gylfi Sigurdsson, as well as manager Brendan Rodgers. The Swans don't look nearly deep enough at this point and despite making moves for Chico and Jonathan De Guzman, they look primed for the drop. Reading enjoyed a great season last year in the Championship, winning the title by a point.The signing of Pavel Pogrebnyak will boost a side in need of a goal scoring threat. The Royals look much like Soton - a great season in the Championship but very little in top flight pedigree. It could be a very difficult season for Reading.
OUTPERFORM: Aston Villa
After an extremely disappointing 16th place finish last season under the maligned Alex McLeish (in which he won just 7 games), Villa have brought in Paul Lambert in hopes of turning the tide. There is a lot of talent on this team considering their finish last season, and the additions of Ron Vlaar and Karim El Ahmadi from Feyenoord will boost the team further. This team played well below their capabilities last year and look primed for a bounce back season. After a severe underperformance last season, the Villans should reclaim a spot in the top half of the table.
UNDERPERFORM: Stoke City
Stoke struggled down the stretch last season, and largely blamed the number of fixtures, which included runs into the Europa League and FA Cup, for their performance. Stoke is one of the smaller clubs in the PL and they do not have the financials to support the squad depth that other teams have, so it is easy to sympathize with Tony Pulis's men. The Potters have been posted a mid-40's point total in each of their four seasons in the top flight, and have been a model of stability for a small club, never really coming close to relegation. This season could be different for Stoke; the only major signing has been Goran Popov from Dynamo Kiev and attacking options have not been boosted, despite scoring just 36 goals in their 38 games last year - worst in the league. Stoke will continue to play their physical style this season, but without any improvements to the squad, they could be much closer to the drop then hoped.
FOURTH PLACE: Liverpool
I maintained the same projection for the top 4 as last year, and I feel much more comfortable about the top 3. As stated, City and United will most likely be fighting for the title, while Chelsea looks to have bridged the gap quite a bit with the signings of Eden Hazard, Oscar, and Marko Marin. Fourth place seems the toughest to call - and I like Liverpool again this year. Last year was a disaster for the Reds in the league, as tentative tactics led to nine draws at home with just 24 goals in 19 games. In comes Brendan Rodgers after an impressive season at Swansea - not only to revitalize but also to change Liverpool's style of play. Expect a more free flowing and positive Reds side this season, which should result in more victories. Arsenal will likely have another hangover after the departure of Van Persie, but still have more than enough experience to contend. However, selling your best player every summer has to catch up at some point, and this could be that year for the Gunners. Newcastle have kept all of the big pieces that led to a surprising sixth place finish last season, but the competition from these sides could be too much. Tottenham still have the Luka Modric situation hanging over their heads, and new manager Andre Villas-Boas has a lot to prove after the failure at Chelsea. If Rodgers is able to implement Swansea's style of play into the Liverpool players, they could enjoy a return to Champions League qualification.
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