UEFA Champions League Group Stage - Preview

Finally. The Champions League group stage is here. This is one of the strongest fields of recent years - there are very few teams left that will be severely over-matched. Here is a breakdown of each group:

Group A

Participants: FC Porto, Dynamo Kiev, Paris Saint-Germain, Dinamo Zagreb

Analysis: After a major summer overhaul, PSG start European life in a relatively easy group, despite being chosen from Pot 3. On paper, PSG are one of the most talented sides in Europe, and their progress should come to fruition on the continental stage. There is a major gulf in class between the Parisian side and the rest of the group. Porto are their toughest competitors, but they will have a hard time replacing Hulk after his departure to Zenit. Dynamo Kiev are also without their most formidable strike threat after Andriy Shevchenko retired this summer. Porto and Kiev are an interesting matchup - both have a strong history in Europe and are very tough to beat at home. I think Porto can edge the Ukrainians by gaining a draw away and winning at home to qualify. Dinamo Zagreb are hopeless - last year's campaign was a debacle with zero points from six games, including a suspiciously awful 8-1 loss to Lyon in their last game. They can only go up from last year, but it's hard to see them doing more than grabbing a point or two.

Prediction: 1. PSG 2. Porto 3. Dynamo Kiev 4. Dinamo Zagreb

Group B

Participants: Arsenal, Schalke 04, Olympiakos, Montpellier HSC

Analysis: Arsenal find themselves in a very easy group again this year, and I expect the Gunners to breeze through to the knockout stage. This is more about the weakness of the competition rather than Arsenal's strength - but in Santi Cazorla and a healthy Abou Diaby, Arsenal have enough quality in the midfield to control a game against any of these opponents. Schalke will be a difficult test, with the in-form Klaas-Jan Huntelaar leading the lines for the Germans. Schalke have experience in this competition from their semi-final run two years ago and should be expected to progress here. Olympiakos have been tough the last few years, but the loss of Kevin Mirallas (without any replacement) is a killer, and it will be difficult for the Greeks to come closer to the knockout stage than their narrow miss last year. Montpellier have only lost Olivier Giroud (to Arsenal) from last year's title-winning team, but French teams have not fared well in Europe recently, especially ones with little to no experience (ex. Auxerre two years ago). They will struggle against more seasoned opponents.

Prediction: 1. Arsenal 2. Schalke 3. Olympiakos 4. Montpellier

Group C

Participants: AC Milan, Zenit St. Petersburg, Anderlecht, Malaga

Analysis: Zenit were in the headlines this summer when they secured Hulk and Axel Witsel for a fee in the region of 80 million Euros. Hulk will provide more cutting edge up top for a team that struggled to score in the last year's competition and the Belgian will help the team's depth in central midfield. Zenit will be exciting to watch, and they have a great chance to win this group. Milan's late-summer sales of Thiago Silva and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to PSG were well-publicized, and are now wide open for criticism. They have dropped two of their first three league games and have struggled to score - two 1-0 home losses to Sampdoria and Atalanta is unacceptable by Milan's standards. The Rossoneri still have enough quality to get through, but it will be much more challenging than previous years. Standing in their way is Malaga, the cash-strapped Spanish club managed by Manuel Pellegrini. Despite having to sell many of their key players, Malaga will be a formidable side on this stage and a tough out. The club have both the talent and spirit to cause the favored teams some trouble. Anderlecht are Belgian champions and will not be pushovers either. There is a strong European tradition and pride at the club as well as quite a bit of experience in the squad. Gillet, Jovanovic, and captain Lucas Biglia all have experience in international fixtures, and the side could make some noise in this group.

Prediction: 1. Zenit 2. AC Milan 3. Malaga 4. Anderlecht
 
Group D

Participants: Real Madrid, Manchester City, Ajax Amsterdam, Borussia Dortmund

Analysis: Group D is clearly the toughest group, with four domestic champions competing, three of which are from the top three ranked leagues in Europe. City and Dortmund both bowed out at the group stage last year, and will have an even tougher task to make the knockout round. Real Madrid look as strong as ever, and after toppling Barcelona in La Liga, it seems like Mourinho's primary objective to win another Champions League crown. It's hard to imagine Madrid going out before the knockout round. Despite their current poor form, I expect Madrid to have a very strong record in this group. On the other end of the spectrum, it's very difficult to see Ajax getting through here. Although Christian Eriksen is rightfully optimistic about his side's chances, the amount of quality in this group will be way too much for the Dutch side. They could pull a few good results through, but any place above third seems very unlikely. That leaves the last place to Dortmund and Man City - and I will select Man City to fall short of the group stage again this year. I believe their focus at heart is beating Man United in the Premier League, and with a group like this, any lapse of focus will be extremely costly. Dortmund have won the Bundesliga two years in a row now and will be more apt to display their style on the continental stage. Having a healthy Mario Gotze as well as adding Marco Reus should boost the side, despite losing Shinji Kagawa. It will be close, as it was with Napoli last year, but I think Man City will come up just short once again.

Prediction: 1. Real Madrid 2. Borussia Dortmund 3. Manchester City 4. Ajax

Group E

Participants: Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus, FC Nordsjaelland

Analysis: The holders are in a difficult group, with an arduous trip to Ukraine coupled with a matchup with Italian champions Juventus, a country where Chelsea have historically struggled. Chelsea have the strongest squad in the group and should find themselves in the knockout round. The squad is full of experience at every position and if the Blues can find a consistent source of goals, it will be easier than many think. Juventus are still in dominant form despite losing manager Antonio Conte to suspension. The momentum from last year's undefeated season in Serie A has continued into this season for the Turin club, which has won its first three fixtures along with the Italian Super Cup. They will be stiff contenders with Chelsea for first place. Shakhtar have competed in the Champions League routinely during the last few years, with one of its greatest victories in its history coming in a 3-2 win at the Nou Camp. However, the side really struggled last year in a relatively soft group, winning just one game, albeit against an APOEL side resting many of its regulars. Shakhtar will be difficult to beat in Ukraine, but will have a difficult time troubling Chelsea or Juventus away from home. FC Nordsjaelland are a complete unknown in this competition. They were surprise Danish champions last year, beating out power club FC Copenhagen, but there are very few recognizable names in their squad. We should not expect much from an unknown and inexperienced side considering the caliber of competition in this group. 

Prediction: 1. Chelsea 2. Juventus 3. Shakhtar 4. FC Nordsjaelland

Group F

Participants: Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov

Analysis: Bayern, last year's losing finalists, have a great draw against Valencia, Lille, and BATE. The Bavarians have been blazing out of the gates in the Bundesliga and are by far the strongest side in this group. Bayern will be in the mix for the final again this year and should navigate through without any bumps. Valencia are the second-strongest side, led by Jonas and Roberto Soldado. The Spanish side have been placing third or fourth in La Liga the last few years, and have the quality to do the same this year. Valencia always seems to find themselves in the knockout stage, with last year's drop down to the Europa League being quite the shock. Lille sold Eden Hazard to Chelsea this summer and have done little to replace him, although they do have talented French internationals Mathieu Debuchy and Marvin Martin in their side. Lille will be a tough side to play but do not figure on making in through this group. BATE are in the group stage again after taking out Ironi Kiryat Shmona in the playoffs. BATE have been playing in Europe consistently and will play a disciplined style - they just do not have nearly enough talent to get through this group. They could produce a shock to one of these sides but it's unlikely to expect much more than one or two positive results for the Belorussians.

Prediction: 1. Bayern 2. Valencia 3. Lille 4. BATE

Group G

Participants: Barcelona, Benfica, Spartak Moscow, Celtic

Analysis: Barcelona are among the favorites again for this year's competition despite the departure of coach Pep Guardiola.They were also handed a straightforward group - none of their three competitors will pose too much of a threat. I don't expect Barcelona to be perfect, but they should have no trouble winning this group. The other three sides in the group do not have much between them. Spartak defeated a good Fener side in the playoffs and look to be the strongest of the three. Russian football has been getting stronger and Moscow is always a difficult place to travel, especially in the winter. Celtic are historically dreadful away from home and will have to rely on their results at Celtic Park. The quality of Scottish football has been in a steep decline, and while Celtic feel they have something to prove, they are the most mistake-prone side of the three. Benfica won their group in last year's edition, but losing Witsel so late will harm a team that already needed to reload a bit. However, there is still plenty of quality and Benfica rarely lose at home. There will be no easy games in this group, but I will take the Russians to get through with Barcelona.

Prediction: 1. Barcelona 2. Spartak Moscow 3. Benfica 4. Celtic

Group H

Participants: Manchester United, Sporting Braga, Galatasaray, CFR Cluj

Analysis: United drew the easiest group of any of the four English clubs in the competition. Last year's group stage was an embarrassment for the Red Devils, as they were outplayed and at times outclassed by Benfica and Basel. This year United will make a point to qualify from this group without question, and although I still don't like their defensive set-up, they should have little trouble doing so. They could get exposed by Braga and Galatasaray, but those squads are both weaker than United's opponents last year, and they should be able to pull out the results. The rest of this group should be very close - again, there isn't much between any of the sides. I'm going with Braga to get through, as they have played well in Europe recently and are emerging as a Portuguese power along side traditionals Porto and Benfica. Galatasaray and Cluj represent federations that have seen better days, as both Romania and Turkey have been littered with major match-fixing scandals in the last decade. However, these sides will be very competitive and the fight for second will be close.

Prediction: 1. Manchester United 2. Braga 3. Galatasaray 4. CFR Cluj

Top 25 - September 7, 2012

The Top 25 is back after the completion of the first month of the season. The usual suspects are in the top 5, but the list has changed around quite a bit due to transfers over the summer.

1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6) Chelsea FC (ENG)
7) Juventus FC (ITA)
8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
10) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
11) AC Milan (ITA)
12) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13) Schalke 04 (GER)
14) SSC Napoli (ITA)
15) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17) Malaga CF (ESP)
18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
20) SL Benfica (POR)
21) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
22) Ajax Amsterdam (NED)
23) Everton FC (ENG)
24) SS Lazio (ITA)
25) Montpellier HSC (FRA)

Notes:

1-10: Real Madrid deserves top spot after beating out Barcelona for last year's La Liga crown, as well as their Supercopa victory last week on away goals. After toppling the Catalans, Mourinho's goal for this year must surely be another Champions League crown. It doesn't start easy. Early matchups with Manchester City and Dortmund make it a difficult road to London..While the Premier League has proven itself to be the deepest in Europe, its top teams have struggled mightily in the defensive end. City, United and Chelsea have all conceded at least two goals twice within their first three to four games. United were the only team not to reinforce their ranks this summer, although they do have returns from Phil Jones and Chris Smalling to look forward to. United have drawn another easy group, but will struggle again in Europe if they do not improve, especially after conceding eight goals in four games against Basel and Benfica last year.. Zenit made two huge acquisitions in Hulk and Axel Witsel, giving them a top-ten pedigree in both talent and experience. They should be favorites in Group C and could make a deep run in Europe after a disappointing drop-down to the Europa league last year.. After becoming the biggest of all spenders this summer, PSG have failed to see results on the pitch. Draws in each of their first three league games (followed by a first win against Lille) have put pressure on the new signings as well as manager Carlo Ancelotti. Group A looks soft for the Parisians, but they could be exposed by the experience of Dynamo Kiev and Porto.

11-25: Atletico Madrid are back on the rise after several mediocre seasons. Falcao can be argued as the best striker in Europe at the moment, scoring a hat-trick in a resounding Super Cup victory over Chelsea. Whether Atleti can keep him is a completely different question - transfer rumors have already started coming in from England. If he makes a January move to the Premier League, it could be a season-changer.. Everton are currently the fifth-best team in England. Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle have all stuttered at the start. If Everton keeps up their second-half form of recent years, they could challenge for a European place. Marouane Fellaini is in the top form of his career.. A horrendous 10th place finish is clearly out of the minds of Marseille as they have raced to a four-for-four start in Ligue 1. More importantly, they hold an early six-point advantage over PSG. The hot start makes the acquisition of Joey Barton even more questionable for L'OM.. Malaga look like a great story after they qualified for the Champions League against Panathinaikos. A huge investment looked to make Malaga a mainstay in Spanish football, but funds have dried up and the club had to sell many of the stars they bought. However, Manuel Pellegrini has kept heads up in the camp, good for a first appearance in the UCL and seven points from nine in La Liga.. Same old Arsenal this summer, as the club again decided to sell its instrumental players. Wenger did a better job this summer reinforcing his ranks, but the fans and players of the club are questioning its transfer policy. If they want to be serious contenders for trophies, and not just competing well, Arsenal must make a stand with its top players and force them to stay. Whether that means paying them more or not is the issue.