Weekly Ranks 10/19 - PSG/Real Madrid, Manchester Derby on Deck

Rankings

1. Bayern Munich
2. Barcelona
3. Real Madrid
4. Paris Saint-Germain
5. Manchester City
6. Atletico Madrid
7. Borussia Dortmund
8. Juventus
9. Chelsea
10. Arsenal
11. AS Roma
12. Manchester United
13. Zenit St. Petersburg
14. FC Porto
15. Benfica
16. Vfl Wolfsburg
17. Celta Vigo
18. Napoli
19. Fiorentina
20. CSKA Moscow

Out: Villarreal

In: Napoli

News:

Bayern Munich made it nine-for-nine in the Bundesliga to maintain a seven-point lead over Dortmund. Bayern has a ridiculous +25 goal differential.. Barcelona got back on track with a 5-2 win over Rayo. Neymar isn't quite Robert Lewandowski, but did manage four goals on Sunday. He's doing his best to replace Messi, and I don't think Barca will fall off too much without the world's best player.. Celta Vigo maintained their surge, now second in La Liga after picking up a win at previous leaders Villarreal.  They are now joint top with Real Madrid and Barcelona. I'm not a believer quite yet. Real might not be as flashy of a team this year, but defensively, Rafa has the team in top form. They've conceded just two goals over eight games in a league that averaged 2.66 per game last year, second highest in the top-five leagues.. All four English teams in the rankings recorded wins last weekend, with Manchester United most impressive in a dominating win at Everton. The other three sides played very weak opposition, and each won easily. The Premier League is shaping up to be a bit more lopsided than usual this year.. Napoli joins the rankings after defeating Serie A leaders Fiorentina 2-1, cutting the gap between the two sides to three points. That's four wins out of five in the league for Napoli, who have recorded two additional wins the Europa League over that span.. Juventus looked better against Inter but could not defeat their rivals, drawing 0-0. I'm still waiting for Juve to turn it around, and there's still plenty of time. Maybe success in Europe will get the team going.. The Portuguese league was off this week.

Games to Watch:

Tuesday: Champions League action features Arsenal hosting Bayern Munich and Dynamo Kiev welcoming Chelsea. Arsenal dropped their first two contests and now face the unenviable task of defeating the German side to try and kick-start their European campaign. Bayern haven't lost since the Super Cup against Wolfsburg in August. They've also won their last two trips to the Emirates, 2-0 and 3-1, during first-leg matches in the Champions League. It's hard to see Arsenal breathing life into their hopes of progressing. Chelsea hardly proved they were back on Saturday despite a 2-0 win over Aston Villa, and face a long trip to Ukraine to face current Group G leaders Dynamo. Dynamo were just beaten 3-0 against arch-rivals Shakhtar, who jumped them into first in the Ukrainian Premier League. It's hard to predict what Chelsea team will show up in Kiev, and a loss would be very damaging for their chances of progression. With Eden Hazard likely returning to the side, I expect a strong performance from the Blues in Ukraine. 

Wednesday: A true titanic matchup in Group A takes place, with PSG hosting Real Madrid, and Real one goal ahead of their hosts through two games. Real have been superb defensively and will be a stern test for PSG, who have been rolling through Ligue 1. This is a statement game for the French side – they are not tested in the league very often and have spent the money to be among Europe's elite. Despite the talents of Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic being on display, I expect a tight, low-scoring game in Paris, with a slight edge to the home side. CSKA Moscow take on Manchester United with all four teams in Group B recording a win and loss in their first two games. All four are even in goal difference as well. Moscow is the site of United's 2008 Champions League triumph, and they won their last visit in 2009, defeating CSKA 1-0. It should be a good contest with a lot of goals – CSKA are leading the Russian Premier League and can keep up with United's pace. A win for United would put them in pole position to progress.

Saturday: League action is highlighted by Celta Vigo – Real Madrid. After defeating Barcelona 4-1 earlier this season, Celta could make a serious statement to the rest of the league by getting a positive result against Real. Real's goal differential is a bit inflated after a two-game stretch where they recorded 11 goals, but Ronaldo is still maintaining a healthy scoring pace. Celta would deserve a place in the top fifteen with a victory, while Real could close what has been a growing gap between Bayern Munich and the rest of the continent. It's hard to trust Celta with so few games played, but I expect them to give Real some issues.

Sunday: The top two sides in the Premier League clash in Manchester - United get the first shot at City at Old Trafford.  United halted a three-game home losing streak against City with a resounding 4-2 win last season. City have won four of six overall against United and lead them by two points. The Manchester derbies have been must-watch games over the last few seasons, and with both sides near the top of the league again, it should be another classic matchup. Wilfried Bony did a good job last week replacing Sergio Aguero, and City's title challenge this season could depend on his ability to produce until he returns. City are the better team overall, but you never know in these sort of games. Complete toss-up.

Weekly Ranks 10/5 - Bayern Jumps Barcelona, English Sides Struggle

Rankings

1. Bayern Munich
2. Barcelona
3. Real Madrid
4. Paris Saint-Germain
5. Manchester City
6. Juventus
7. Atletico Madrid
8. Borussia Dortmund
9. Zenit St. Petersburg
10. Chelsea
11. Arsenal
12. AS Roma
13. Manchester United
14. FC Porto
15. Benfica
16. Fiorentina
17. Vfl Wolfsburg
18. Villarreal
19. Celta Vigo
20. CSKA Moscow

Out: Bayer Leverkusen

In: CSKA Moscow

News:

Bayern Munich tops the rankings after their 5-1 drubbing of Dortmund. Bayern were ruthless on Sunday, scoring their five goals within a forty-minute time period. It seems to come in fives for the German sides now-a-days. Both Bayern and PSG will run away with their respective leagues – the question is, will the lack of legitimate competition derail performance in the Champions League, or will it allow star players some much needed rest? Bayern were beaten easily by Barcelona in last year’s semifinal after winning a weak Bundesliga, a year after they were crushed by Real Madrid at the same stage. Bayern's transfer policy, which has substantially weakened their opponents, seems to be backfiring in Europe.. Fiorentina is sitting on top of Serie A, and has scored thirteen goals to just one against in their last four matches, all wins. They’ve built up a ten-point lead over struggling Juventus, and must be considered legitimate contenders. Juve picked up two wins this week, and will surely begin to close the gap sooner rather than later.. Manchester City were the only English side to pick up two wins this week, slipping by Borussia Monchengladbach before destroying Newcastle. City can go as far as Sergio Aguero will take them.. It was another week of disaster for Chelsea, as two listless performances against Porto and Southampton has Jose Mourinho talking about his job prospects. I don’t believe Chelsea will fire Mourinho, but something needs to change, fast. The performances are getting worse and the defense is routinely out of position, giving away easy goals. A loss to Aston Villa after the break could spell big trouble for the Blues.. Arsenal and Manchester United had mixed weeks. Arsenal suffered a devastating loss against Greek champions Olympiakos, which practically ends their Champions League hopes, but bounced back with a 3-0 win over United. The Reds picked up a solid win over Wolfsburg on Wednesday before collapsing in the aforementioned defeat. It’s simply more of the same; United have yet to establish any consistency, while Arsenal are just the same old Arsenal. These sides wouldn’t be considered contenders if Chelsea weren’t in miserable form. It’s Manchester City’s title to lose.. I want to give some love to Andre Villas-Boas and Zenit. The club has navigated around AVB’s six-game domestic suspension to go top of Group H. Their domestic form is improving, but CSKA lead the pack with nine wins and two losses in eleven matches. AVB will be leaving Zenit at the end of the season, and while his tenure in Russia has had some curious moments, he has certainly earned himself another chance at a big club.. It was a good week for the Portuguese sides, as Porto and Benfica produced three wins from three. Benfica’s win in Madrid over Atletico was most impressive, albeit Atletico were preparing for a Madrid derby on the weekend. Porto’s win over Chelsea was analyzed particularly for Chelsea’s poor form, but Porto deserves a ton of credit. They attacked Chelsea with pace and were able to win the ball back quickly in midfield. Executing that type of football could take Porto a long way this season; they seem due for a run, don’t they?

Games to Watch:

Thursday: Euro 2016 qualifying matches will be taking place and there are just two matches left for many teams. Two interesting affairs, which happen to be in the same group, are Ireland – Germany and Scotland – Poland. The current standings in Group D are Germany with 19 points, Poland with 17, Ireland with 15 and Scotland with 11. However, Scotland’s last game is against Gibraltar, so barring what would perhaps be the biggest upset in qualifying history, Scotland will gain an additional three points, giving them 14. Despite playing the current world champions, the pressure is squarely on Ireland, as a loss would make their trip to Poland on Monday a must-win, unless the Poles can help them out by defeating Scotland. These four sides are all pretty good (obviously the Germans are world class) and usually light up the scoreboard, so the magnitude of these matches make them all the more compelling.

Keep an eye on Albania – Serbia as well. The first fixture was abandoned in Serbia after a pro-Albanian flag was attached to a drone and flown above the field during the match. The flag was eventually pulled down by a Serbian player, sparking a melee. The game was awarded as a 3-0 win to Albania, and Serbia were deducted a further three points due to the incident, which was yet another chapter is a series of worrying race and discrimination issues with Serbian fans. Albania have already qualified for the playoffs, and could secure an automatic place in Euro 2016 with wins over Serbia and Armenia, while Serbia are dead last and eliminated. It’s quite sad with Serbia, as there a number of household names on the team, but their fans continue to commit various hooligan crimes, both abroad and at home. It has undoubtedly affected the performance of the team, which has failed to build on their 2010 World Cup qualification.

Friday: 2018 World Cup qualifiers? Already? Qualifying begins in CONMEBOL, the football federation of South America, and Chile – Brazil is the highlighted matchup. Chile won the Copa America on home turf, sealing their first ever title. There isn’t much new with Brazil – they have begun to wash away last summer’s disaster, but their Copa America quarterfinal loss to a mediocre Paraguay side wasn’t nearly enough. I expect Chile to keep on rolling here.

Saturday: More European qualifiers, as Czech Republic – Turkey and Bosnia-Herzegovina – Wales highlight the slate. The Czechs, along with Iceland, have already qualified from Group A, while Turkey leads the Netherlands by two points for third. Four points from the two remaining games will send Turkey to the playoffs, which would mark a shocking collapse for the heralded Dutch side. Both sides play Iceland and the Netherlands face off against Kazakhstan on Saturday. It’s all on the line for Bosnia, as they must defeat group leaders Wales to have any chance of qualifying. They currently trail Israel by two points for third place. After qualifying for the World Cup for the first time as an independent nation, Bosnia has struggled badly in Group B, losing matches to Israel and Cyprus. Like the Dutch, they would be noticeable absentees if they don’t qualify for the final tournament.

Sunday: Thursday’s matches will determine the ultimate significance of Poland – Ireland but it will have meaning regardless of the results. If the Poles and Irish are able to secure their places with wins on Thursday, the match will determine which side goes through automatically versus through the playoffs. If Scotland defeats Poland on Thursday, the match will be for survival. These are two good sides so it should be an entertaining affair, especially with the form that Robert Lewandowski has been displaying for Bayern.

Monday: It could be a testy affair between Russia and Montenegro for each team’s final qualifying match. The Russians are currently in second place with Montenegro fourth. Sweden is in third, one point ahead of Montenegro, but face minnows Liechtenstein and Moldova in their final two matches. Montenegro could easily be eliminated by kickoff, and even if they remain three points behind Russia, they will need to win by four goals to go through. I’m highlighting the match because like Serbia and Albania, the first match was abandoned due to crowd trouble, and Russia was awarded a 3-0 win. The pressure will be cranked up further if the Swedes or Russians trip up on Friday, but things have to break perfectly for the Montenegrins.

Weekly Ranks 9/28 - Barcelona On Top, Bayern Close Behind

Rankings

1. Barcelona
2. Bayern Munich
3. Real Madrid
4. Paris Saint-Germain
5. Manchester City
6. Juventus
7. Chelsea
8. Borussia Dortmund
9. Atletico Madrid
10. AS Roma
11. Vfl Wolfsburg
12. Arsenal
13. Zenit St. Petersburg
14. Manchester United
15. FC Porto
16. Bayer Leverkusen
17. Villarreal
18. Benfica
19. Fiorentina
20. Celta Vigo

News:

Barcelona tops the rankings, despite a shocking 4-1 loss at Celta Vigo and the loss of Lionel Messi against Las Palmas. Both should serve as more of a wake-up call than a warning sign. The Catalan side still has the most potent attack in the world, despite just eleven goals in six games. Rivals Real Madrid have conceded just once thus far this season. Expect lower-scoring Classicos this year.. Robert Lewandowski’s five-goal tally in nine minutes against Wolfsburg was incredible. Bayern must be happy they went through all of that trouble to get him. Atop the league, Guardiola’s men will face few challenges domestically this season.. Meanwhile, Dortmund have gotten off to a hot start in the Bundesliga, with new coach Thomas Tuchel off to a bright beginning after replacing Jurgen Klopp. Tuchel didn’t change much tactically or within the squad, but did add some extra pace by acquiring Adnan Januzaj on loan. Dortmund’s sixth place finish last season is still baffling.. Manchester City has cooled off after a hot start, and Chelsea can’t seem to get going this season. The Sky Blues are the favorites to win the league, but they still have many of the same issues as prior years. With Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala out, City were all over the place defensively in a 4-1 defeat at White Hart Lane.. Chelsea is just playing too slowly. They have been unable to break on the counter and use the pace of their forwards. Their poor defensive record stands out, but it has been a myriad of mistakes rather than sustained poor play that has cost them goals. Expect things to improve, but not greatly until Thibaut Courtois returns.. This should be PSG’s year to shine. Off to a hot start in Ligue 1, expectations are high for the Parisians in Europe. This could finally be their year.. Manchester United are top of the Premier League, but the odds of a season-long run at the title are still long. Anthony Martial is off to a firing start, and things are certainly coming together for the Reds, but I would not consider them to be contenders until next term. Performances are still too uneven, but this team is capable of beating anyone. The consistency will come.. Villarreal and Celta Vigo are off to good starts in La Liga, with Villarreal top of the league after six matches. While neither side can be expected to sustain a run at the top three, the clubs notched victories over Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. La Liga is the best league in the world right now, and if some balance finally begins to occur in the table, it will make the league even better.. Juventus, like Chelsea, has lost three of its first six games after losing just three last year. They sit 15th in the table, ten points behind Fiorentina after the Viola notched an impressive 4-1 win over Inter in Milan. Juventus’s dominance of Serie A gives them an easier chance at a fight back than the Blues have in the Premier League, but their 1-1 home draw against newcomers Frosinone was particularly poor. Injuries have played a part but Juve need to press their foot on the gas soon.. FC Porto took the early edge in the Portuguese Liga by defeating Benfica 1-0 last weekend. Benfica has won the league each of the past two seasons, and this season figures to be another tight race between the two archrivals.

Games to Watch:

Tuesday: Eight Champions League matches take place, but keep an eye on FC Porto – Chelsea and Arsenal – Olympiacos. Jose Mourinho visits the club where he won his first Champions League title, and Porto should provide a stiff test for a Chelsea side still trying to find their form. I’m expecting a draw, as Mourinho is typically conservative in road European matches and a draw would be just fine for the Blues as Porto drew their first match. However, Diego Costa will be ready to go – his three-game ban is only for domestic matches. Arsenal and Olympiacos each lost their first match, but in contrasting circumstances. The Greeks lost a relatively tight match to Bayern 3-0, and although the score line is not favorable, two of Bayern’s goals came in the final minutes. However, Olympiacos created little going forward and will need to push the tempo in London, as Arsenal have defended well when they have eleven players on the field. In Zagreb, that was not the case, as Olivier Giroud was needlessly sent off in the first half, and Arsenal fell to an embarrassing defeat in Croatia. This is certainly a must-win for the Gunners. The home side has won each of the last six matches between the two sides, and I expect that trend to continue.

Wednesday: Eight more Champions League matches, and there are two more that stand out: Juventus – Sevilla and Manchester United – Wolfsburg. Although, I wouldn’t mind watching Atletico take on Benfica in an Iberian battle, either. Both Juve and Sevilla won their first match, but are struggling badly in their domestic leagues. It is most surprising to see Juventus struggling, as they have dominated Serie A and kept hold of their most prized asset, Paul Pogba, this summer. Sevilla finally won their first match of the season on Saturday and picked up a solid 3-0 win over Borussia Monchengladbach on Matchday 1. I expect Juve to win this game, but it should be an entertaining affair for the neutrals. Manchester United are top of the league but coming off a surprising 2-1 defeat in Eindhoven against PSV. Wolfsburg, my pick to win the group, defeated CSKA in their first match. German teams usually travel well, and Wolfsburg has a number of talented players, including German internationals Andre Schurrle and Julian Draxler. United should take this game, as it is essentially a must-win, but it should be very exciting with a number of goals.

Thursday: 24 Europa League games are on the slate – most interesting are Monaco – Tottenham and Celtic – Fenerbahce. Monaco and Spurs are two of the best teams in the competition, and while we likely won’t see their best sides on the field, it should still be an entertaining affair. Celtic and Fenerbahce faceoff at what is an always electric scene, Celtic Park. Celtic’s glory days are well behind them, but there is always a spirit about the Bhoys at home, and the crowd always creates an impressive atmosphere on European nights. Fener are finally past the match-fixing scandal that has plagued the club since 2011, and after missing European football the past two seasons, the Turkish side are looking to improve after a surprising 3-1 loss to Molde. Group A is probably the best group in this year’s Europa League – the fourth team is Ajax, another team with a proud history.  

Saturday: I will be watching Chelsea take on Southampton, but the only matchup between top sides is Sevilla – Barcelona. As mentioned, Sevilla have struggled in the league but they should be up for the challenge of playing the Catalan side. Expect the fireworks to be going off in Seville, although the absence of Lionel Messi will dampen the hype.

Sunday: The slate is nothing short of incredible – if you’re not an NFL fan (or a fan of say, the Saints, or the Bears) there’s an entire day’s worth of matches. Everton – Liverpool, Arsenal – Manchester United, Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid, Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund, PSG – Marseille, and AC Milan – Napoli highlight a jam-packed schedule. The Merseyside derby is always a testy affair, and the pressure has been building for Brendan Rodgers’s Liverpool. An improving Everton side could be exactly what gets them going – or the final nail in the coffin for Rodgers. The Madrid derby has been very tight over the last few seasons, and Diego Simeone’s side will be looking to inflict a first defeat of the season on Real. Unsurprisingly, Real have been much more efficient at the back but far less potent going forward under Rafa Benitez. Expect physical play to persist throughout the game. Bayern sit four points ahead of Dortmund entering the match, with the former already twenty goals to the good with seven wins from seven. Bayern are far ahead of their rivals nowadays, but Dortmund always gives them a good game. The tension between the two clubs regarding transfer policy has made these matches a must-watch.  

Champions League Final Preview

It isn’t El Clasico, but it may be even better. Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will play a Madrid derby in Lisbon, and will give Spain its second European champion of the year (Sevilla won the Europa League). Both clubs won their semi-final matchups with a curious lack of drama, winning by a combined score of 7-1 in the second legs of the ties, which were played on the road. Really impressive play from both teams, as the last two European champions, Bayern Munich and Chelsea, were swiftly sent packing. 

La Liga’s race came right down to the wire, with all three top clubs stuttering multiple times, but it was Atletico who came out on top, with Diego Godin’s goal securing a 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou. It's a deserved and long-awaited triumph for Atletico, whose defensive prowess reigned in a typically offensive league. I think Real counted themselves out of the league too early and focused squarely on 'La Decima.' Obviously, that is not a bad thing because they are in the final, but they really blew the title this year despite being given so many chances to come back into the race. We will see if their lack of attention in the league pays off with a victory in Lisbon.

When: May 24, 2:45 ET

Injuries & Suspensions: There are a number of notable players in this category. Xabi Alonso picked up a yellow card with Real leading 4-0 on aggregate in Munich, and now he will miss the final. It’s a shame that players must miss the final for yellow card accumulation, but there is no better way to implement the rule, and he really should have known better in that situation. He is perhaps Real’s most important player, and they will feel his absence. 

Diego Costa has a hamstring problem for which he underwent surgery for last Monday, while Cristiano Ronaldo has a groin issue, and he has not played since May 7. These are massive attacking players for each side, and while both have adequate alternatives, these two are irreplaceable. They are both making the trip to Lisbon, and Ronaldo seems to be the healthier of the two, but it remains to be seen. If Atletico are missing Costa, Diego Simeone will likely turn to David Villa, while Carlo Ancelotti would turn to Gareth Bale to fill in for Ronaldo. 

Real have other concerns at both the front and the back, as Karim Benzema and Pepe are questionable to play. If either are unable to play, it presents a big problem for Los Blancos. Without Benzema (and a hobbled Ronaldo) Real will not have a focal point to their attack. While Pepe may have an erratic history, he has been fantastic in the Champions League this year, and they will already be missing cover in midfield due to Xabi’s absence. While I hope the injured players are able to play, it would be interesting to see how Ancelotti would set up the side without either or both of those two players. Lastly, Arda Turan is also racing to be fit for the contest for Atletico. He was a constant threat against Chelsea and provides plenty of service to Costa. He is a major part of Atletico’s passing play in the final third, and after picking up an injury against Barca, it will be a close call. 

Prior Meetings: This season, the sides played four times – twice in La Liga and twice in the Copa Del Rey semi-finals. Atletico won 1-0 at the Bernabeu and the sides drew 2-2 at the Vicente Calderon in La Liga, while Real won 3-0 at home and 2-0 away in the Copa. The 2-0 loss for Atletico was played without the likes of Diego Costa, Diego Godin, Arda Turan and Adrian, but it was a convincing response from Real nonetheless following their string of poor results against the Rojiblancos. 

Verdict: There is as much uncertainty in this final as I can remember – there are injury questions piled on to the fact that it’s a Madrid derby, and derbies are nearly unpredictable. Real dominated Atletico under Jose Mourinho, but now Diego Simeone’s crew has been getting the better of their wealthier neighbors. The pressure is squarely on Real – this has been a long-awaited moment for their fan base, and a loss to Atletico would be very painful to swallow. It’s surely a match Atletico want to win, but having won La Liga, they have surpassed everyone’s expectations by a long, long way. 

It’s hard to even pick who the favorite should be. Atletico won the league, but Real have performed admirably against high-level competition, while tripping up on some of the lower hurdles. The match is close by in Portugal, so there’s no site advantage. Carlo Ancelotti has more experience at this level and has already won two Champions League crowns with AC Milan, but Diego Simeone has proved himself to be one of the best coaches is the game today with his team’s achievements this season. Real have superior attacking depth, but Atletico have a sturdier defense and one of the best goalkeepers in the world, Thibault Courtois. Real has a slightly better midfield, but they will not have Xabi, so I think that advantage swings to Atletico. The point is, there’s no distinguishing these two sides.

Weighing in all the factors, I think Atletico wins if Costa plays and Real is missing any of Ronaldo, Pepe, or Benzema. If Ancelotti has all of those players at his disposal, I think Los Blancos take La Decima. My reasoning – with Xabi already out of the lineup, if Real are missing a forward, or another important defender, Atletico will have a major advantage, as Ancelotti will be using someone he hasn't featured often. Atletico have won without Costa before, but I don’t see them doing it on this stage against a team that has been gearing for this game for the last month. I don’t believe in the “meant to be” type outlook on this match for Real – they have superior individual players and in what could be a very tight game, one moment of brilliance could make the difference. Between Ronaldo, Bale, Di Maria, Modric, etc. there are depths of brilliance. It looks like Ronaldo will play and don't be surprised to see him become the man of the moment. It should be a very tight match, and I will take Real to produce that one Zidane-esque moment to take La Decima.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2-1 Atletico Madrid

Maybe add to these? 

UEFA Champions League: Semifinal Preview

Once again, Spain continues to place its stamp on European competition. Two Spanish clubs find their place in the semifinals of the Champions League, while Sevilla and Valencia face off in the Europa League. England, Germany, Italy and Portugal each have just one representative left in European competition. It’s difficult to determine which domestic league is the best, but by this criterion, La Liga is clearly supreme. I think it’s difficult to definitively say that it is, just because the league has been dominated so thoroughly by Real Madrid and Barcelona over the last decade, and when you look at the overall depth of the league, it starts to run dry after third or fourth place most years. This year, it is nearly indisputable that La Liga has been the best – Atletico has been a positive surprise, and Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Real Sociedad are all solid teams. While the Premier League has been regarded recently as the best in the world because of the massive investment and increasing parity from top to bottom, the quality of Spanish football must be recognized. Great strides have been made in Spain this year, but will any Spanish sides come home with European silverware?  

Semifinal matchups:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

A true matchup of world football giants, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich meet for the second time in three years in the Champions League semifinals. Two years ago, it was Bayern who took a 2-1 lead in the first leg in Munich through a last-minute strike from Mario Gomez, but Real replied with two early goals at the Bernabeu, only for Bayern to equalize from the spot. It was the spot that decided the tie, as three of Real’s four penalty takers missed (including a horrific effort from Sergio Ramos) and Bayern won the shootout, 3-1. Overall it was a very even tie, and with many of the big names still playing a starting role in the sides, I expect another even tilt.

One thing that has changed is the coaching staffs at each club. That matchup in 2012 featured Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho at Real, with retired treble winner Jupp Heynckes at Bayern. Carlo Ancelotti leads Madrid now, while former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola has taken charge at Bayern. Both coaches have considerable experience at this level, as they, along with Mourinho, are vying to become the second coach in history to win three Champions League crowns. 

I think this tie favors Bayern Munich, but they will have a huge advantage if Ronaldo’s injury affects his play, or prevents him from playing altogether. It would be difficult to see him missing the match entirely, but players vary on their ability to play through injury. Ronaldo is the best player remaining in the competition, and if Real are to make the final, he will have to be the catalyst. Bayern’s defense has been anything but convincing, and while Guardiola has always been known for his attacking prowess rather than building an organized defense, they still have a sizeable advantage over Madrid. Mistake-prone players like Sergio Ramos and Pepe still play significant minutes at the heart of Real’s defense, and their showing in Dortmund will be met with similar punishment if they repeat that performance against the Bavarians. Speaking of Dortmund, they waxed a full-strength Bayern 3-0 in Munich last weekend. Neither side looks all that intimidating in the defensive third. 

I like Bayern in this matchup because I think they provide more ways to break you down. Madrid have a wealth of attacking players, and Gareth Bale has come into form during the second half of the season, but I don’t know how much they will trouble Bayern if Ronaldo is not playing at full strength. They are used to having a lion's share of the ball, and they won't against Bayern. Both sides conceded two goals in the last round – Bayern gave up a magnificent header to Nemanja Vidic off of a corner, and a rocket to Patrice Evra from open play, while Real produced an awful back header and a giveaway in midfield. My point is that Bayern are less mistake-prone at the back and have more solidity in their game plan than Real does. With more of the ball, and likely more of the chances, I see Bayern making their third straight finals appearance.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2 – 3 Bayern Munich (2 – 1 H, 0 – 2 A)

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Atletico Madrid has been nothing short of outstanding under Diego Simeone. He has already won the Europa League, UEFA Super Cup (against Chelsea) and Copa Del Rey since joining the club in December 2011. It’s also worth noting that despite their success, they’ve had several stars join other clubs (Sergio Aguero, Diego Forlan, Falcao as a few examples) and they have been in financial trouble for years. Chelsea haven’t had any financial issues since Roman Abramovich bought the club, and despite Mourinho’s best efforts to lower expectations for the season, the club found itself in the thick of the Premier League title race for much of the year and now competing in the semi-finals of the European Cup.

The clubs have faced one another three times in the last five years; twice in the group stage of the 2009-10 UEFA Champions League, and in the 2012 UEFA Super Cup in Monaco. Chelsea won 4-0 at Stamford Bridge, while the teams drew 2-2 in Madrid. The Super Cup was won decisively by Atletico, a 4-1 drubbing coming courtesy of a first-half Falcao hat-trick. With these sides, I would not put much stock into the past results – some of Chelsea’s longest-tenured players are still around but hardly any of Atletico’s are. Mourinho only lost to Atletico once in his three years at Real – it was his last game, the final of last year’s Copa Del Rey, with Atletico winning 2-1. All six La Liga games were won by Real, with the aggregate score 16:4. 

While Chelsea showed their typical character in grinding out the result against PSG, they have to play a lot better to get through this tie. Atletico suffocated Barcelona’s attacking front with surprising ease, and have conceded just once in each knockout round tie. With the opportunities Atletico has been creating all season, and the improving health of Diego Costa, I don’t see one goal being good enough for Chelsea to move on to the final. Samuel Eto'o will not play in Madrid, meaning it will be up to Fernando Torres or Demba Ba to lead the lines away from home.

This tie will likely be won at the Vicente Calderon. Atletico have conceded just nine goals in 17 home games in La Liga this season – a very similar record to PSG’s. The difference is La Liga is one of the top three leagues on the globe. It’s going to be very difficult for Chelsea to create chances with the way Atletico pressure them, and if Eden Hazard is forced to miss the first leg, Chelsea will be short of attacking options. Diego Godin and Miranda are going to be hot commodities this off season, and with Atletico normally looking to take profits on players, they could easily be moving on this summer. But this defensive unit, along with Chelsea loanee Thibault Courtois, has been one of the best in Europe in recent years.

Does Chelsea's loss against Sunderland have any effect on this tie? I'm not sure. In one sense, it allows them to focus squarely on European competition, but losing at home to the team at the bottom of the table can never be seen as a positive. I think they will be sluggish early in Madrid, but they have more than enough quality and experience to steady themselves. This is going to be another dead-even tie, but I give Chelsea the edge because I think they match up well with Atletico's attack and displayed a suffocating home advantage in the quarterfinals. I don't expect them to be in as deep of a hole this time around. Don't expect many goals either - both coaches will be happy to grind this one out.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)

Champions League Quarterfinals Review

The results were as follows (on aggregate)

Real Madrid 3 – 2 Borussia Dortmund

Chelsea 3 – 3 Paris Saint-Germain (Chelsea advances on away goals)

Bayern Munich 4 – 2 Manchester United

Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Barcelona

It sounds simple, but at this point, the teams that move on are the teams that take their chances – possession, style of play, etc. don’t really matter because all of the teams are good. All four quarterfinal losers had plenty of chances to create a different result than their ultimate defeats, and for PSG and Dortmund, it is especially painful to go out because they had several great chances to score more goals. It doesn’t always matter what the matchup is – putting the ball in the net, whether it’s out of one chance or twenty, is why the four semi-finalists are through. The Champions League isn’t about being the best; it’s about doing enough to win. 

I figured on Atletico – Barcelona being the toughest to call, and it’s the first one of this year’s knockout round that I gave an incorrect prediction. In truth, it wasn’t all that close – Atletico were clearly the better side. I would say Barcelona may have edged the first leg, despite trailing on away goals, but in the second leg Atletico were rampant. They allowed Barca to stay in the tie but created numerous wonderful chances and were very unlucky, hitting the bar three times in the first twenty minutes of the match. They are a hard-working side and their place atop La Liga and in the semi-finals of the Champions League can only be questioned by those who have not seen the team play. They have a disruptive style of play by pressing high up the pitch, which allows them to brush aside smaller, weaker opposition. Barcelona have proven themselves to be somewhat of a one-dimensional side, and while they are elite in their tiki-taka passing, they have been taken out in the last three years by teams that bullied them physically. With their world champion Spanish midfield nearing the end of their prime, if not already at the end already, Barcelona is facing a transitional phase. Their loss to Granada at the weekend just compounds what has been a disappointing season for the Catalans.

The tie between Chelsea and PSG was always going to be close because the teams play in a very similar way. They are both led from the back, have exciting wing players with pace, as well as being strong at home while not as dominating on the road. I actually think PSG played poorly in this tie, perhaps due to their inexperience in the competition, and losing Zlatan for the second leg really hurt them. Cavani was lost up top and could have buried Chelsea twice but failed to hit the target on either occasion. But starting from the first leg, they played passively and gave Chelsea the chance to dominate the first half. In the second half they were better, but scored the two goals because of some terrible defending, not great football. In the second leg, they started off positively, and looked comfortable until Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea. That set off what seemed to be fear throughout the whole side, and it took almost thirty minutes, when Yohan Cabaye came on, for the side to stabilize. They were better and should have killed off the game but didn’t, and now must face more questions of their credentials. I think the French Ligue 1 doesn’t test them enough, and while that is something they have little control over, it’s going to be hard to put PSG in the elite class until they can prove themselves on the continental stage. 

I’m not taking away anything from Chelsea here. There are few sides I would give a better chance of overturning a 3-1 deficit than the Blues, if any at all, and overcoming the loss of Eden Hazard made the triumph even more impressive. Not many teams can lose their best player, who is also the center of their attacking game plan, and beat a team like PSG by two goals. Were they fortunate? I wouldn’t say so – they hit two posts and looked like the better side for a majority of the two legs. They were sloppy in France and were punished, but they put together a determined performance at the Bridge. Mourinho and Chelsea personify the attitude of getting results, and not worrying about how the result is achieved. That looping shot from Ba was just enough to see Chelsea through.

When Patrice Evra scored his thunderous volley (see it if you haven’t), Manchester United had a lead against Bayern Munich after almost 150 of the 180 minutes of the tie. That is something I never really considered as a possibility, and interestingly enough, they were playing well enough to deserve it. That lead lasted all of 70 seconds, and after that lead evaporated so quickly into the Allianz Arena air, you could tell it was over. The sad part for United is that this was their best tactical showing of the year, and it was against an opponent they knew would try to dominate them. From his days at Everton, David Moyes was used to having less talent than his opponents, but he could shape his sides to put in hardworking performances while not seeing much of the ball. Manchester United plays on the ball, and as a top club, must dominate it in most games. That is why he is not the man for this job – he doesn’t have that style in his playbook, and these players don’t either. He did a great job in this tie because it was one where he had to be defensive, and if he had a healthy Wayne Rooney, or Robin Van Persie, they just may have squeaked through. As it is, they are out and have virtually no chance at reaching the competition next year through their place in the league. If Moyes stays on to rebuild the squad to make it back to the Champions League, he’s going to have to blow up the way it’s structured now. 

As for Bayern, it was very unimpressive. They were poor in Manchester despite having over 75% of the ball and were dreadful in Munich until Evra woke them up with his screamer. The bottom line is that if they play like that in the next round, they will be out. United were the weakest team in the draw, and Bayern prepared for them like they knew that. It was positive to see the side adapt after going a goal down to quickly brush away their fans’ fears of a shock exit, but there are plenty of causes for concern. Perhaps the weakness of the Bundesliga, which Bayern had a large role in creating, is creating a lackadaisical feeling in the locker room. They were rather fortunate against Arsenal and United to make it through. Bayern can be the best team in the world, and from this stage on, they must start to play like it or they will be eliminated. 

Real Madrid must be a frustrating side to root for. They played exactly the way I thought they would in the first leg, dominating a decimated Dortmund team missing their top striker. I know Ronaldo didn’t play in the second leg but they were terrible in Dortmund. Terrible. They could have been 3-0 down at halftime and Dortmund had a number of golden chances to score in the second half. I just don’t understand it, Carlo Ancelotti is a great coach and tactician, so I don’t get how missing Ronaldo (he’s great of course) turns them into such a slow team. Everything was slow, conservative, and the defense was mistake-happy, gifting Reus a brace. Very surprising performance in that regard. I think it's one they can brush off quickly, but they added to their miserable history in Germany after putting a stop on it in the round of 16.

I thought Dortmund would be very overmatched here and what they proved is that if Jurgen Klopp stays at the club, they will be a force to be reckoned with. They have suffered through injuries, transfer rumors, and pre-contract signatures of its best players to Bayern Munich, but Dortmund had a great chance to reach the semi-finals for a second straight year. Henrikh Mkhitaryan is a wonderful player, but he has underperformed this season and missed an open goal that would have tied the aggregate at 3. The squad bounced back to crush Bayern 3-0 over the weekend, with Klopp sitting Lewandowski to start. A test for next season perhaps? Klopp is already trying to gain an edge.

The semifinals are drawn as such:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich
Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Possibilities include a Madrid derby in Lisbon's final, as well as a rematch of the 2012 final. It should be interesting - these are four great teams but nobody is in particularly great form. Preview coming late this week.