2014 FIFA World Cup Qualification Update - 21 Teams In

All of the group stages for qualification to next summer’s World Cup are finished. 21 places have been clinched, while the final 11 will be decided through playoffs. Four places belong to UEFA, five to CAF, one to the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, and one to the CONCACAF-OFC playoff. It’s the last chance for these teams to reach next year’s main event in Brazil.

AFC

Qualified: Iran (1st, Group A), South Korea (2nd, Group A), Japan (1st, Group B), Australia (2nd, Group B) 

Playoff: Jordan (3rd, Group B) – qualified to play Uruguay

No big updates here, the four qualified sides had already done so months ago. The news here is that Jordan’s opponent in the international playoff will be fifth-placed CONMEBOL side Uruguay. A victory over a two-legged tie seems just about impossible for the Middle Eastern country. Have stranger things happened? I suppose, but if Jordan knocks Uruguay out of the World Cup it would be among the biggest shocks in football history. Best of luck.  

CAF

Playoffs – First Leg Results

Ivory Coast 3:1 Senegal

Ethiopia 1:2 Nigeria

Tunisia 0:0 Cameroon

Ghana 6:1 Egypt

Burkina Faso 3:2 Algeria

Analysis: Ivory Coast are off to a strong start against Senegal, and should find their way through to the World Cup. A late away goal from Papiss Cisse gives Senegal a chance, but Ivory Coast are the best team in this region and will likely score themselves in the return leg. Nigeria received the dream draw by receiving minnows Ethiopia, and took full advantage despite falling behind early in the second half. The one-goal lead and the two away goals give Nigeria almost a sure-fire place in next summer’s tournament. Ghana absolutely hammered Egypt, leaving the second leg a mere formality. At 3-1, and even 4-1, you would give the Egyptian side a sliver of hope, but a five-goal deficit will be too much for Bob Bradley’s upstart team to overcome. A traditional powerhouse, Ghana has booked their place in Brazil. The other two ties have all to play for. Burkina Faso managed a late winner against Algeria but conceded twice, and Algeria will head home knowing a goal would send them through. Expect them to take care of Burkina Faso with far less drama than they experienced against Egypt four years ago. Tunisia was reinserted into this draw after Cape Verde fielded an ineligible player in their final group game, which the island side had won 2-0. Instead the game was ruled a forfeit, and a 3-0 win for Tunisia, sending them through to the playoffs. They played out a 0-0 draw at home which leaves everything in the balance for next month’s decider in Cameroon. This one will be very tough to call, but Cameroon will be slight favorites to qualify.

CONCACAF

Qualified: United States (1st), Costa Rica (2nd), Honduras (3rd)

Playoff: Mexico (4th)

The United States and Costa Rica qualified last month, while Honduras joined them with a win against the Costa Ricans. Mexico will play in the intercontinental playoff against New Zealand after finishing fourth in the group.

Mexico was pathetic in this qualification round. It always seemed like the Mexicans would turn it around in time to qualify for next summer’s tournament, but are now in the playoff thanks to, of all teams, the United States. Two injury-time goals gave the US a 3-2 win over Panama, which was inconsequential to their position but knocked the Panamanians out. They would have advanced on goals scored had they won 2-1. As it is, Mexico gets to play a New Zealand team that is stronger than Asian playoff side Jordan, but not very tough. This is a tie Mexico should win easily, but can we really expect that at this point? Two wins from ten in qualifying, just seven goals scored, and four goalless draws support the idea that Mexico is still ripe for the picking. Will they actually fall? I doubt it, but even if they do qualify for next summer’s tournament, how can they expect to make any kind of impact? At the very least, Mexico must record a heavy victory over the two legs to instill some confidence before next summer. That is, if they make it.

CONMEBOL

Qualified: Brazil (host), Argentina (1st), Colombia (2nd), Chile (3rd), Ecuador (4th)

Playoff: Uruguay (5th)

Argentina qualified last month, and Colombia joined them after a 3-3 draw against Chile in their second-to-last match. Chile qualified with a win over Ecuador, who also qualified on goal difference over Uruguay. It has to be a huge disappointment for Uruguay not to automatically qualify, but their performances are improving and they get an easy matchup with Jordan in the playoffs. Uruguay will be in next year’s tournament, and I see them as one of maybe two or three sides that could eliminate hosts Brazil.

OFC

Playoff: New Zealand (1st)

New Zealand qualified for the playoff last March with a win over New Caledonia. New Zealand have made significant strides over the past decade, and they qualified for the last World Cup through the playoffs. This time around, they play Mexico instead of Bahrain, which is clearly a tougher task. I expect the tie to be closer than perhaps any other time in history, as Mexico are struggling to find any positive results, and New Zealand are well-rested and their domestic league, where most of their internationals play, is improving. It would still be quite the upset, but New Zealand should be able to hang around the Mexicans.

UEFA

Qualified: Belgium (Group A), Italy (Group B), Germany (Group C), Netherlands (Group D), Switzerland (Group E), Russia (Group F), Bosnia & Herzegovina (Group G), England (Group H), Spain (Group I)

Playoffs: Croatia (Group A), Sweden (Group C), Romania (Group D), Iceland (Group E), Portugal (Group F), Greece (Group G), Ukraine (Group H), France (Group I) (Note: Denmark did not qualify despite finishing second in Group B. They had the worst record among second-placed teams when discounting games against the group’s sixth-place opponent.)

Russia reached the World Cup finals automatically despite being drawn from Pot 2, while Belgium, Switzerland and Bosnia came from even further down, having been drawn from Pot 3. Overall there aren’t too many shocks up there – I expected the Swiss to win Group E, Portugal always choke in qualifying and Russia took advantage, Bosnia’s only real competition in Group G was Greece, and Belgium have one of the best young teams in the world. The most striking country still left has to be Iceland, who were drawn from Pot 6 – the worst pot in UEFA. Ranked a lowly 121 when the pots were drawn, Iceland are now a two-game aggregate tie away from one of the most improbable trips to Brazil. They would be the smallest country in history to qualify if they progress. There aren’t too many household names on the team, one of the noticeable being Tottenham’s Gylfi Sigurdsson. They had some missteps, including giving Cyprus their only win, but secured seventeen points from their ten games. Congrats to Iceland on their achievements.

Norway again top the list of disappointments, as they failed to take advantage of what was by far the softest group in qualifying, Group E. The Norwegians didn’t deserve to be in Pot 1 anyway, but they were brutal in a group that gave them their best chance to qualify for a major tournament in perhaps their entire history. Turkey was also among the underachievers, falling three points short of the playoffs and finishing behind Romania and Hungary. The Turks have been a big disappointment since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008.

The playoffs are as follows (home team for first game is listed first):

Portugal vs Sweden

Ukraine vs France

Greece vs Romania

Iceland vs Croatia

I would expect to see Portugal, France, Greece, and Croatia in next year's World Cup. Iceland got the draw that gives them the best chance, as an out-of-form and coachless Croatia limp into the playoffs. Greece face Romania in a tie that will likely feature two or three goals between the two games. Ukraine got the unlucky draw by playing France, but it will be very tight. Ukraine are an underrated side because of their youth. One of Ronaldo or Zlatan will miss out on Brazil and you have to feel for Zlatan - his supporting cast isn't nearly as good. Portugal have advanced through the playoffs twice in a row and should be able to do so again. 

UEFA Champions League Matchday 2 - Preview

The first matchday had its share of surprises, as Basel went to England and knocked off Chelsea, while Napoli and Shakhtar also defeated favored opponents. Overall, it was rather low-key when compared to the last couple of years. There are a few duds in the mix for this week, but also more action-packed ones. Again, games to pay extra attention to are marked with “*” symbols. 

Time	Home		Away	Group	Projection	Venue
2:45 ET	FC Basel	vs	Schalke 04	E	2-1	St Jakob-Park
2:45 ET	Steaua Bucuresti	vs	Chelsea	E	1-2	Stadionul Ghencea
2:45 ET	Arsenal	vs	Napoli	F	2-1	Emirates Stadium
2:45 ET	Borussia Dortmund	vs	Marseille	F	3-0	Signal-Iduna-Park
12:00 ET	Zenit St Petersburg	vs	Austria Vienna	H	4-0	Petrovski Stadium
2:45 ET	FC Porto	vs	Atletico Madrid	H	2-1	Estadio do Dragao
2:45 ET	Ajax Amsterdam	vs	AC Milan	G	1-1	Amsterdam ArenA
2:45 ET	Celtic	vs	Barcelona	G	0-3	Celtic Park
2:45 ET	Bayer Leverkusen	vs	Real Sociedad	A	1-1	BayArena
2:45 ET	Shakhtar Donetsk	vs	Manchester United	A	2-1	Donbass Arena
2:45 ET	Juventus	vs	Galatasaray	B	2-0	Juventus Stadium
2:45 ET	Real Madrid	vs	FC Copenhagen	B	5-1	Santiago Bernabéu
2:45 ET	Anderlecht	vs	Olympiakos	C	0-0	Constant Vanden Stock
2:45 ET	Paris Saint-Germain	vs	Benfica	C	1-0	Parc des Princes
12:00 ET	CSKA Moscow	vs	Viktoria Plzen	D	2-0	Arena Khimki
2:45 ET	Manchester City	vs	Bayern Munich	D	2-2	Etihad Stadium

*FC Basel – Schalke 04*: Group E’s Matchday 1 winners meet in Basel for what should be one of the better clashes of the week. Basel secured an impressive win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge while Schalke continue to shrug off their miserable start in the Bundesliga by performing in Europe. Basel are a very good team; I suggested they should make it through this group because of the style of football they play. They have the ability to follow one big win with another. This club has defeated Manchester United, Tottenham, Chelsea and Bayern Munich in the last three years. Winning this contest would leave the Swiss side in a great position heading into two fixtures against Steaua. Schalke have a strong away record in the Champions League, going unbeaten in their last five matches. I expect a close match and give Basel the edge here at home.

Steaua Bucharest – Chelsea: The group’s two losers meet in Romania, in what is essentially a must-win for both sides. Obviously, Chelsea are favorites here and they will have considerably more pressure on them given the poor performance against Basel. They also lost in Romania in last year’s Europa League before squeaking by Steaua in the return fixture. Despite conceding three times to Schalke, Steaua are a difficult team to break down and the trip to Romania will be an arduous one. After losing some players this summer, Steaua are not as strong as last year’s side and will be more easily exposed by Chelsea’s numerous attackers. Fernando Torres looks to have returned to form and he should start the match due to his impending suspension in England. It will not be an easy game but Chelsea should get their campaign off the mark in Bucharest.

*Arsenal – Napoli*: This should be one of the best matches of the group stage. Both sides won their opening fixture in Group F and both sides have won five of their first six domestic games. Rafa Benitez returns to England with striker Gonzalo Higuain, who chose Napoli over Arsenal this summer. Arsenal’s addition of Mesut Ozil has transformed the side, and Aaron Ramsey is in the best form of his career. Ramsey’s goal-scoring has lifted Arsenal to the top of the Premier League, and is especially impressive considering how poorly he was playing less than a year ago.

This game should feature plenty of positive, attacking football. Napoli aren’t the traditional Italian side, content to pack it in and play for a narrow victory. This team scores plenty of goals, even without Edinson Cavani, and they will be challenging for Arsenal’s back four to deal with. I like what I’ve seen so far from Arsenal in the Premier League and give them the edge here, but this tie could go either way. Arsenal are not as dominant at home as they used to be and Napoli can give their defense much more trouble than the likes of Swansea and Stoke.

Borussia Dortmund – Marseille: Marseille won this fixture 3-2 two years ago after trailing 2-0, qualifying for the knockout stage in the process. Dortmund’s first year in the Champions League was one to forget, and with what is a much improved side, should be able to avenge that defeat. Dortmund have been dominant at home, having won six straight European games. They have scored eleven goals in their last two Bundesliga home matches, and sit atop the league with six wins and a draw from their first seven.  Marseille are not a bad side but they just don’t have the quality to compete in this group.

Zenit – Austria Vienna: This should be a straightforward tie for Zenit. They must beat the Austrian minnows at home to stand a chance in this group, and showed they will compete despite losing in Madrid. Vienna showed the same thing against Porto, narrowly losing 1-0 after missing a host of chances. Don’t expect a repeat performance. Zenit need this win and will take the three points heading into their home-and-home with Porto.

*Porto – Atletico Madrid*:  Porto have one of the best home advantages in Europe at their Estadio Dragao, but Atletico make one of the shortest trips to their fortress. The Iberian rivals have had their ups and downs, but both are looking like very tough sides this year. Porto have five wins and a draw from their first six matches in Portugal, while Atletico are still perfect in La Liga following a 1-0 derby victory over big-spending Real Madrid.

Two attacking teams getting together is always fun, and I expect Porto and Atletico to put on a good show. Atletico striker Diego Costa may get a call from Spain if he continues his current form. Porto are the European symbol of consistency – managers like Jose Mourinho and Andre Villas-Boas have come and gone, as well as high-profile players like Deco, Joao Moutinho and Hulk. Porto are still a European power and a very proud one; they have a stellar home record and were the only team to defeat PSG on their travels last season. I like Porto to win what should be a free-flowing, end-to-end game.

Ajax – AC Milan: This fixture should be a good one to watch, with AC Milan not fully throttling yet and Ajax a good squad at home. Ajax are firmly stuck in the good-but-not-great category of European sides, and this is the sort of game they will need to win to reestablish themselves as a continental power. Coach Frank De Boer was not discouraged despite losing 4-0 at the Camp Nou, and you have to admire his team’s confidence. They were able to beat Manchester City at home last year and Milan could be another victim. The Italians haven’t won an away fixture yet this season, struggling to draws and defeats against some of Serie A’s weaker sides. Still ninth in the league, Milan are in the process of finding their form this season. A positive result would be encouraging for Ajax ahead of their games with Celtic, and they should be able to secure a point in one way or another.

Celtic – Barcelona: As stated last matchday, Celtic are not the same team that qualified for last year’s knockout round. Life in the Scottish Premier League without Rangers has certainly taken a toll on the league, and the club sold a number of important players over the summer. Last year’s heroics against Barcelona will be difficult to replicate; Barcelona look stronger than ever. The one advantage the Hoops will have is that they will not have to deal with Lionel Messi, as he sits out with a thigh injury. One thing is for sure – Celtic Park will be bumping Tuesday night. Just don’t expect another historic victory for the home side.

Bayer Leverkusen – Real Sociedad: Both sides lost their opening matches and are looking to bounce back. Neither side will want to face two games against the two stronger teams in this group on zero points. Sociedad were one of my sleeper picks to make some noise and they have had a very poor start to the season. With just seven points in seven league matches, they need a victory to jumpstart their campaign. On the other hand, Bayer are off to a great start in the Bundesliga and despite losing to Manchester United, they showed some attacking promise that is essential in European ties. Both teams need this game, so I’m looking at a draw. If there is a loser, they would be in a huge hole to qualify.

*Shakhtar Donetsk – Manchester United*: What an interesting fixture for Manchester United as they face a trip to Ukraine to play Shakhtar following their shock home defeat to West Brom on Saturday. Donetsk is not a fun place to travel, and Shakhtar are no slouch, underlying their intentions with a 2-0 win in Spain two weeks ago. They have not started their domestic campaign as well as the past few years, but are still a very talented team full of young Brazilian players as well as seasoned veterans.

The attribute I always saw from Sir Alex during his time in charge of United was his ability to make his team react to disappointment. There were very few extended hangovers during Fergie’s time, and the squad was typically able to pick itself up following defeat. Well, it is a trying time for David Moyes because following the Manchester derby drubbing at the hands of City, United were outplayed by West Brom on Saturday, losing a second consecutive Premier League game. I know they beat Liverpool midweek, but an opening Carling Cup game is of little significance when compared to the Premier League. Further worsening the situation is Shakhtar, whose last home loss in a competitive game was last December against Juventus, a game where they had already qualified and fielded a weakened side. Before that, they lost in November of 2011 to Porto. Needless to say, this team is near-impossible to beat at home and United will need a strong reaction here. If they can play well, they could earn a very creditable draw or snatch a win. More likely, they will sink further into the mire.

Juventus – Galatasaray: Juventus didn’t take care of their numerous chances in Denmark and left with just a point. Galatasaray were hammered by Real, conceding a number of poor goals late in the second half. Surely both sides are better than their opening performances and will be keen to prove it. This is an interesting matchup and I would place *s around it, but I don’t expect the game to have too many chances. Both of these teams try to dominate possession, and Juventus is much stronger at home than on the road. Gala would be happy with a draw despite losing their first match, as two matches with Copenhagen await them. I expect Juventus to take the three points and relieve some pressure that would build if they enter their home-and-home with Madrid with just two points. Interesting note – Roberto Mancini was just hired as Galatasaray’s new manager. We’ll see if he can make an impact in his first game in charge.

Real Madrid – FC Copenhagen: This is a perfect fixture for Real right now, as they have begun their domestic campaign somewhat slowly again. A derby loss to Atletico is never good for the royal club and falling further off the pace in the league will not please the higher-ups. In steps Copenhagen, the weakest team in the group but coming off an inspiring 1-1 draw with Juventus. We will not see too much carry-over here: Real should win this game easily and banish fears that the club is in any sort of dysfunction.

Anderlecht – Olympiakos: Anderlecht have their moments in the Champions League but were outclassed by Benfica in their first match and face a stronger opponent again here. The Greeks were their own worst enemy against PSG, failing to defend set-pieces while completely falling apart in the second half. They are the better side and could really use a win, but they must shore up their defense and not repeat the four goals they conceded. I expect a defensive display from both sides, as Anderlecht do not have much in terms of experienced goal scorers. They have been scoring in the league though and an early goal could ignite this one. I wouldn’t set my hopes too high on that though.

PSG – Benfica: The two favorites in Group C face off in Paris, each coming off of an easy victory. PSG are loaded with world-class talent and will be solid favorites at home. Benfica are off to a shaky start in Portugal where they are typically dominant, but I don’t see it as much to worry about. These are two top quality sides, and it should be a good game. PSG’s style has been a bit more subdued that you would think given their wealth of attackers, but they were able to score four times in their first match, and will be hunting for goals again. Benfica are just a bit short here playing on the road; they are usually much tougher to beat at home. PSG should continue their hot start with a win.

CSKA Moscow – Viktoria Plzen: Should be business as usual for CSKA following their opening match defeat in Munich, as Plzen provides a must-win match before their two games against City. Plzen fought tough for the first-half against City but eventually succumbed to a couple of superb goals. Again, this team is not as bad as many think but they will have trouble on their travels in this group. A mandatory victory for the Russians, and they should grab it without much discomfort.

*Manchester City – Bayern Munich*: An obviously headliner here, as two powerhouses of Europe go head-to-head in Manchester on Wednesday. Both teams won their opening match, but there is more pressure on Manchester City given that they face two matches against CSKA, while Bayern play Plzen.

City are a puzzling team. They can look unstoppable at times against top-tier opponents, and then their defense can just fall down like a house of cards against a weak team. Cardiff and Aston Villa have both defeated City in the Premier League this year (scoring three goals apiece) and their other away fixture resulted in a draw with Stoke. Fortunately for them, this game is in the confines of the Etihad, so this will be an interesting match. Bayern have no fear of anyone, especially coming to England, where they hammered Arsenal 3-0 last year. Bayern do not look as strong under Guardiola despite their good run of results, as last year’s dominating team takes a bit of time to adjust. There will be goals because City doesn’t have a clue how to defend, but expect the Citizens to hang right with Bayern. This has the looks of an entertaining draw.