Euro 2016: More Teams, Fewer Favorites

Euro 2016 is the first European tournament to be held with 24 entrants, up from 16 in the previous few versions. There will also be an extra knock-out round; the best four third-placed teams will qualify from the group stage along with the winners and runners-up of each of the six groups. As I noted in a previous post, the expansion to a 24-team final tournament strongly increased the level of play in qualifying, and we will see a number of nations in this year’s edition that had never previously qualified – Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and Wales all make their first appearance in the tournament. This is a positive for a number of reasons, namely that more people get to take participate and dream of their country bringing home the cup. 
 

While I believe the gap between the top sides in Europe and the weaker sides in this tournament has closed, there isn’t much to choose from after Germany and France. The Germans come in confident after their triumph in the 2014 World Cup and have the strongest and deepest roster in Europe. It was shocking to see them lose their aggregate tie in qualifying to the Republic of Ireland, a team I rank as one of the weaker sides to qualify. However, the Germans still won Group D and deserve their label as favorites coming off their World Cup victory. A recent friendly loss to Slovakia shouldn’t be looked into too deeply. France, as hosts, won the World Cup in 1998 and look to repeat that task this summer. The team has gone through more than enough ups and downs in previous tournaments and it seems to be time to get down to business – everyone is sick of the melodramatic stigma that surrounds this team. The midfield is stacked, led by Juventus’s Paul Pogba, and Antoine Griezmann is in the form of his career for Atletico Madrid. The French are my pick to win the tournament.

Spain just looks old to me. The two-time defending champs struggled in the World Cup and their forward line is surprisingly thin. Their qualifying group was particularly weak and they split their matches with the second-best side, Slovakia. No one in their right mind can pick England. I like the roster – it looks stronger than previous tournaments – but there’s that inevitable sense of failure looming. Maybe Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy can change that? They’re in a very tough group and were truly dreadful in Brazil. Belgium, Portugal and Italy are the last three sides that could be considered as possible contenders, but Belgium is still young, Portugal has little else outside of Ronaldo and Italy is lacking the quality you’d expect out of an Italian team.

There are a few dark horses in this tournament. Croatia has a wealth of talent in midfield and experience up front with Mario Mandzukic. They have failed to live up to expectations since their quarterfinal appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and crashing out in the group stages of Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup. Croatia placed third in Euro 1998 and could make a deep run in France again. They have the talent to win the tournament and while that is a lofty expectation, a semi-final appearance seems likely to me. Switzerland is another team that could make a much deeper run than expected. Their group is weak other than France, whom they lost to 5-2 in 2014. Romania and Albania shouldn’t be any issue for the experienced Swiss side, and a runners-up position in the group would likely pit them against Poland or Ukraine. A quarterfinal appearance seems reasonable, and would surpass expectations for a side that managed to hold Argentina for 116 minutes in the World Cup before losing 1-0.

France should win Group A easily. They crushed the Swiss in the World Cup (the 5-2 score line understated the play on the field) and Romania won’t be able to score against them. Albania is the worst team in the tournament by some distance. They qualified mostly due to the fact that their group was bad and they were the beneficiaries of an unfortunate incident involving Serbia. Romania has gotten steadily weaker over the last two decades and I haven’t seen anything to convince me a turnaround is coming. They can pack it in defensively but that’s about it. Switzerland should advance along with the French. Group B is a wildcard. You never know what you’re going to get from England, and their first match against the regularly underperforming Russian side should give us a good idea. The matchup with Wales on June 16 will be dynamite, and the one-man show of Gareth Bale will need to be on top form to advance. Other than a bizarre home loss to Belarus, Slovakia was solid in qualifying and presents a very balanced opponent. Martin Skrtel and Marek Hamsik are the cornerstones of the side, and both are experienced, talented players. Russia always seems to underachieve in major tournaments and this group presents a greater challenge than they faced in Brazil. I’m going to take England to win the group and advance with Slovakia, but I’m prepared to hear the England fans moaning if they blow it against the Welsh. They’ll never hear the end of that. But Group B could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Poland and Germany split two matches in qualifying and they will play again in Group C, also on June 16. The Poles have steadily improved over the last few years and with Robert Lewandowski leading the lines, they will be an entertaining team to watch. Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland are boring and bad, so I’m hoping that the Germans and Poles find their way through. The Irish won what was the worst European qualifying group I’ve ever seen, and while their progress deserves accolades, it doesn’t make them any better. The best side they managed to beat was Hungary (who I rank 23 out of the 24 teams that qualified). Ukraine is a bit better but there were just 18 total goals in their 10 qualifying matches, with six of them coming in a pair of 3-0 wins against Luxembourg. Can’t say I’m excited to watch Ukraine play, although Andriy Yarmolenko can make them bearable to watch. Ukraine did have success against Poland in 2013 but the teams have been going in opposite directions since then. Thankfully, Germany and Poland are the best two teams in the group and should head through. Group D is very interesting. Spain will try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit in Brazil, but their squad doesn’t look too intimidating to me. Diego Costa will not go to France, and while he has struggled with injuries, finishing, and keeping his head on straight over the last twelve months, his absence leaves Spain heavily reliant on Juventus forward Alvaro Morata. An aging midfield behind him does not inspire me, and a 1-0 loss to Georgia in their final tune-up could prove to be an eerie sign. The Czechs and Turks also faced off in qualifying, with each side winning at the other’s ground. Turkey seems to play well in tournaments so they could be a dark horse in this group. I see Croatia as the best team in the group. Some combination of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic will form what looks like the best midfield in Europe. Croatia faces Spain on June 21, likely to determine the group’s winner. I like the Croats to beat the Spanish and win the group, with Spain second.

Group E is another very balanced group. Belgium and Italy face each other first on June 13 in what should be an exciting contest. It could go either way, and we should see plenty of goals. Sweden and Ireland played one another in World Cup qualifying in 2013 and the Swedes came out on top, winning in Ireland and securing a draw at home. What would this tournament be without Zlatan? He’d be the first to tell you it would be boring and not worth watching, so let’s hope his final Euros turns out to be a memorable one. The problem is, Sweden just isn’t very good, and although they were in a tough qualifying group and were the only side to take a point from Austria, they won just five of their ten matches and had to beat Scandinavian rivals Denmark in a playoff just to qualify. Ireland has put up some very good results, beating Germany during qualifying and knocking out a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina side in the playoffs. They haven’t been nearly as good outside of Ireland, and this group is particularly tough. Despite their respective issues, Belgium and Italy will be heavy favorites to advance and I expect both sides to do so.

Lastly, Group F strongly resembles Group D in the Copa America – there are two very strong sides and two rather inept ones. Portugal will always be a threat with Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Austria is their only formidable opponent. Austria ran off nine wins and a draw in ten qualifying matches to reach the tournament for the second time (they co-hosted in 2008). Led by Bayern Munich midfielder David Alaba, the Austrians have perhaps their best team ever. I would rank them higher but their lack of experience concerns me. The two clunkers in the group are Iceland and Hungary. Iceland had a great run in qualifying, but I expect them to come down to Earth. Their two wins against the Netherlands say more about the state of the Dutch side than the prowess of their own play. Iceland has some stars but no real experience to draw upon. Hungary came in third in that awful qualifying group that Northern Ireland won. They scored only 11 goals in 10 matches and qualified by beating a poor Norway side. This isn’t the Hungarian side from the 1950’s. Iceland has a better shot at causing a shock but Portugal and Austria are a few steps above both teams.

I picked the hosts in Brazil and felt pretty dumb afterwards so I’m hoping this isn’t a repeat. France has the fortune of an easy group to get the home crowd behind the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have a squad of their caliber. Overall, I expect this tournament to be less predictable than the Copa America – these teams don’t play each other in competitive atmospheres very often and there are eight more teams involved. That means eight additional styles of play, numerous additional superstars that could win a game single-handedly and ultimately what should be a very fun tournament to watch. The Germans are the betting favorite but this is the type of year where you could see an underdog take the trophy.

New European Qualifying Structure Paying Quick Dividends

The European Championships are UEFA’s flagship competition in international football. After five competitions with 16 teams, the field is being expanded to 24 teams for the 2016 tournament. There has been severe backlash from areas of the continent, suggesting that the competition will be watered down with the addition of eight more teams. I think the positives outweigh the negatives, and the change is already paying off.

Whenever a tournament has been expanded in sports, there are two sides of the argument. One side will suggest that the additional teams bolster the competition by adding more games and creating a more competitive and unpredictable tournament. The extra games allow for more participants to be involved and increases the revenue generated by the event. Opponents suggest that having more games makes it harder for the truly elite teams to succeed by presenting unworthy competition the opportunity to take a final shot in the tournament. In this scenario, the “best” team has a lesser chance of winning because of the increased amount of games, diluting the competition’s quality. For example, in the case of the NCAA’s basketball tournament, I am a firm opponent of expanding the tournament. I feel that the teams who don’t get in had plenty of chances to prove themselves, and expanding the tournament would water down the competition so much that the regular season would not matter. In the European Championships, I see the opposite effect.

In the previous format, just 16 of 54 associations would be allowed to participate in the final tournament – a total of 29.6%. The host (or occasionally co-hosts) automatically qualifies, taking away one or two spots from qualifiers. That pushes the percentage of qualifiers to reach the finals down (with one host) to 28.3%. This year, with France as host, 43.4% of the qualifiers will reach the final tournament. This should benefit competition in the groups and overall parity across the continent. Teams who were drawn from Pot 4 and Pot 5 had virtually no chance in the previous format – the eight group winners often come from Pot 1 or 2, while second place would not even guarantee a place in the finals, but a place in the playoffs against a higher-ranked opponent. Now, players for countries like Wales and Iceland can have a real motivation to compete because they have a chance. In the first match day alone, we saw Albania (Pot 5) defeat Portugal (Pot 1), Iceland (Pot 5) defeat Turkey (Pot 3), Cyprus (Pot 5) defeat Bosnia-Herzegovina (Pot 1), Northern Ireland (Pot 5) defeat Hungary (Pot 2), and Scotland (Pot 4) lose 2-1 to World Champions Germany. On the second match day, Kazakhstan, from the lowest pot in the draw (Pot 6), led the Dutch at halftime. Obviously, these results are not expected to continue and the top sides will regain their form, but I see the extra motivation for the minnows as the primary reason for these historic scorelines.

Let’s take a quick look at Montenegro. A Pot 5 side in the last European qualifiers, the tiny Balkan country surprised by snatching second-place from Switzerland by a point. Their unlikely qualification for the playoffs was swiftly met with a playoff against 11th ranked Czech Republic, who beat the Montenegrins 3-0 on aggregate. Did Montenegro deserve a place in the finals? Probably not, but their improvement gave the side something to build upon going into the next qualifiers. This time, their group is much tougher, with Russia, Sweden and Austria joining them in fighting for three spots. That group has already been electric – those four sides are separated by just three points. With just one automatic qualification spot available in the previous format, one of the four teams would likely be out of the mix before the end, lessening the quality of their remaining fixtures. With two teams advancing and a third gaining a playoff spot, all four teams will likely be in it until the end.

I don’t think the 24-team final tournament compromises the competition at all. Apart from Greece’s victory in Portugal 2004, which was a 16-team format, there has not been a major shock winner in international football. I also don’t see a major gap between the sides currently ranked 13-16 and the sides right below them. Ukraine (10), Sweden (13), and Denmark (14) strike me as marginally better, at best, than the Czechs (17), Ireland (19) and Turkey (21). There will hardly be a massive drop off in quality. Will there be a low-ranked side in the finals? Most likely, but again, this is not news. In the World Cup, eight sides ranked 33 or lower (since the World Cup, in theory, should be the top 32 teams) qualified for the finals. Only one team, Nigeria, advanced out of the group stage, and they were eliminated by France in the Round of 16. That is what usually happens to bad teams – they lose. I see no problem having more teams involved in the group stage. 

Lastly, it changes the way that European footballers look at international qualifying. It gives the opportunity for players to 1) play for their home country versus gravitating towards an eligible country to play for a better team and 2) individually lift their country on the big stage. Wales is my most obvious example – they are hardly a one-man team, but the star of the show is clearly Gareth Bale. Given that UEFA has 13 places in the World Cup, it’s unlikely Bale’s Wales would ever qualify, and with just three more places in the Euros previously, they didn’t have much of a chance either as they are currently stuck in Pot 4. However, with the additional places, Bale has the potential to push the team into the tournament and light up the continental stage. How many times have you seen a player raise his game to push his team past a better opponent? They may not all make it, but now the continent’s best players will at least have the opportunity to qualify. In the end, we could have a tournament featuring players like Bale, Robert Lewandowski, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Cristiano Ronaldo, and David Alaba, none of whom are on the continent’s best teams. Plus two-time defending champions Spain, and World Champions Germany. Who would turn that off?

The change is already paying off. We’ve seen a number of upsets already, and the games are generally closer. Going forward, it’s hard to see teams like Germany and the Netherlands running a near-perfect slate through qualifying. This change to the rules has made the qualifying process more competitive, and should make European teams better on the global stage.

Through three match days, I list the group leaders. Just one team from the first pot currently leads their group – that really says it all.

Group A – Iceland

Group B – Wales

Group C – Slovakia

Group D – Poland

Group E – England

Group F – Northern Ireland

Group G – Austria

Group H – Croatia

Group I – Denmark

Not exactly your world powers? 

PS: The abandonment of the Serbia - Albania game today was the most foreseeable cancellation for quite some time. Why they are even playing each other is beyond me.

WORLD CUP - Saying Goodbye to Brazil & Final Preview

Everything seemed to be going to plan before Brazil faced Germany in the first semifinal.

Then, after a 7-1 beatdown, the hosts' hopes were smashed into tiny little pieces. So what happened?

Well, it seems as though Brazil coach Scolari went for an all-or-nothing strategy from the beginning, which on its own is just silly. He chose Bernard ahead of Willian which is understandable, but still a poor choice. Bernard had only played briefly in the tournament and did not pose much of a threat, whereas Willian has a year of Premier League experience under his belt. For the first few minutes, Brazil had the ball and controlled the game. But once they gave the ball up, it was, to be kind, a mess. The first goal they conceded was basic defending - David Luiz lost track of Muller, allowing him to tap it in from six yards out. How do you leave the opponents' leading scorer all alone?

The second goal was well worked by the Germans, but still showed Brazil's unwillingness to defend. Klose fired off a quick shot which Cesar saved, but no one picked up Klose for the rebound for him to tap in. Marcelo had kept Klose onside to begin with, then watched him shoot twice right in front of him.

From that point on, it was always going to be difficult, but Brazil simply gave up. Luiz, tearful at the end of the game, claimed that Brazil "had given everything, but didn't make it." That is just not true. They did not give everything, and while this Brazil team will always be haunted by the scoreline of the game, it is that attitude that is the most damning. Germany blew a four-goal lead to Sweden in a half-hour at home during qualifying; there was no reason to give up. Their defense was scrambling all over the place whenever Germany possessed the ball. Four of the five first half goals for Germany were tap ins. Honestly, if I didn't know the names of the teams or the stage of the game I would have thought that either this was a pro team against an amateur team or that Brazil was throwing the game. After the break they were better but still not hustling. Neuer made some good saves but Schurrle's two goals were more lazy defending by Dante and Luiz. The absence of Thiago Silva was going to matter much more than the storyline favorite Neymar, and while his absence alone did not cause the heavy defeat, it certainly played a major role. Dante had no clue, Luiz couldn't mark anyone and Maicon and Marcelo were constantly caught up the field and leaving their partners out to dry. The midfield was just as bad.

Everyone who reads this blog knows I picked Brazil, and have been saying so for about a year. They were out to erase memories of 1950, where their crushing 2-1 defeat to Uruguay left the nation shocked and saddened. They certainly erased those memories - they made more painful ones, which wasn't thought to be possible.

The biggest beneficiary to this Brazil debacle, other than the Germans and any people who dislike Brazil, is Luis Suarez. World Cups are remembered for the winners and the story lines, and while there have been nice stories like Costa Rica's run to the quarterfinals, the USA's advancement from a tough group, and rising star James Rodriguez, the biggest story line was the bite Suarez inflicted on Giorgio Chiellini's back. Now, that will fade to the background, as this will always be the World Cup where Brazil was humiliated. Suarez has moved on to Barcelona and can start again after his four month ban. Brazil can not.

The Netherlands - Argentina game was pretty dull. I was surprised the Dutch didn't try to attack more, and even more so when Louis Van Gaal used his final substitution to bring on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Even if Tim Krul couldn't replicate his performance against Costa Rica, he would at least have a psychological edge in the shootout. Van Gaal didn't have his team attack enough to justify not saving a substitution for Krul. Argentina were decent but lacked cutting edge. They did have a perfectly good goal by Gonzalo Higuain wrongly ruled out for offside. They kept a third straight clean sheet, and it's that type of defensive work that will be needed against the Germans.

The third place game should be interesting, but all of the focus is on the final. I think Brazil will play better but still lose to the Netherlands. The Dutch have performed well against Brazil and I expect the hosts to still be a bit shocked.

Germany - Argentina

A rematch of the 1986 and 1990 World Cup Finals, one won by West Germany and the other by Argentina. These two sides were probably the second and third favorites after Brazil at the start of the tournament. Germany has impressed throughout this summer's event - defensively controlling games through the midfield while also clinically finishing their opportunities. Argentina haven't been nearly as convincing, but five victories by a one-goal margin and the shootout victory have gotten them here.

At this point, Germany has to be a big favorite. There is a possibility of a let down after such a large victory, but Germany is clicking on all cylinders. They could have scored ten against Brazil and have played better in each of the last three games. Argentina will have fantastic support from their fans and Messi is always a threat.

I can see either side winning this game but Germany looks like the better side. After defeating Brazil, they have proved themselves as the best team in the world, and their midfield is dominant. I don't see Argentina's midfield being able to possess the ball for long stretches like they have in previous games. Argentina's hopes lie in their attacking players. Messi can make a play at any time, and even though he has not played well thus far, so can Aguero. Higuain will probably start up top but expect Aguero at some point. Their pace could cause some problems but I expect Germany to control the game.

Final Prediction: Germany 2, Argentina 0

Trivia: Germany and Argentina are meeting for a third time in the World Cup Final, the most matchups between any two sides. Who are the two teams that have played each other twice in World Cup Finals? (All other matchups have only happened once.)

Last post's answer was Asamoah Gyan, of Ghana. He has scored six goals in the World Cup, including one in this year's tournament.

WORLD CUP - Changes for Brazil & Semifinal Preview

Four powerhouses are in the semi finals. Hosts Brazil will face Germany on Tuesday, while the Netherlands play Argentina on Wednesday. A team from South America has yet to be eliminated by a non-South American opponent, and if Brazil and Argentina go through it will not happen during this tournament. These matchups are very tight and should be low scoring - the quarterfinals produced just five goals in the four games, with every game decided by a goal or less.

The story in the Brazilian media is the loss of Neymar due to a broken vertebrae. I think this loss should be downplayed. Neymar is Brazil's best attacker and most iconic player, but while Neymar is Brazil, Brazil is not Neymar. He has created the most chances of any player in the tournament thus far, but I do not see the jump down from his ability to Bernard or Willian, his likely replacements, as being steep. It also looks like Neymar's loss could provide Brazilian fans with a source of pride and motivation, as they have had little to be excited about thus far.

The big loss is the absence of Thiago Silva from Brazil's defense. Silva stabilizes the middle of that line and with the sometimes marauding David Luiz as his partner, he is the constant. He's also a fantastic defender and widely regarded as the best in the world. Dante is the likely replacement, and the Bayern man will have to be up to the task of stopping Thomas Muller.

Louis Van Gaal claimed he would have rather seen arch-rivals Belgium go through, and I believe him. Holland would much rather play a European team that they know after playing two CONCACAF sides and squeaking through on each occasion. It hasn't been easy in the knockout stage. Argentina made in five one-goal wins in a row and despite being called "ordinary" by Belgium manager Marc Wilmots, they are improving as this tournament moves forward.

Brazil – Germany

Joachim Low moved Philipp Lahm back to his natural right back position, and with Toni Kroos and Bastian Schweinsteiger controlling the midfield, Germany dominated France through the middle. I was disappointed with France’s lack of ambition throughout the game but was equally impressed with Germany’s defensive prowess. I thought their midfield might be a concern heading into this tournament but with Schweinsteiger looking much more healthy and Mats Hummels dominating the back line, this team has been sound in the defensive third. They have had some close calls but they look very difficult to break down, especially with Manuel Neuer in goal.

Brazil will be short their best attacking player but there are other options. If he is healthy, Willian should replace Neymar and Brazil should keep their same shape. Willian created the second-most chances for Chelsea this past season behind Eden Hazard and plays with a similar style. The other option would be to bring in Paulinho and play with three holding midfielders, but I think this is too defensive against a side that is already going to be tough to break down. Brazil needs flair and creativity. Dante will need to be sturdy and David Luiz, who has been excellent thus far, must show discipline.

This looks to me like the moment of truth for both of these sides. After playing in cruise control through their first four matches, Brazil finally appeared themselves against Colombia. I expect them to play with similar physicality against the Germans. Germany has played better to this point, but will face a raucous crowd in Belo Horizonte. Germany could be slightly better right now, but I am still going with the hosts. Fireworks could be in store, but Brazil typically take part in tight, low-scoring semifinal. Brazil, 1-0.

Netherlands – Argentina

The Dutch were dominant but were nearly knocked out by a feisty Costa Rica side. However, the difference in quality was obvious and their superior fitness was evident in the shootout. Tim Krul came in to stop two of the five penalties while guessing correctly each time. Louis Van Gaal can never be underestimated as a coach, and it was no surprise when he revealed that Krul had been his plan all along. Argentina has not been as clever, but their defense has been surprisingly stout en route to back-to-back 1-0 wins over European opponents. It was a workman-type performance against the Belgians, but Argentina never appeared uncomfortable and Lionel Messi has continued his stellar form into the knockout stages. Some of his long dribbling runs were mesmerizing and his initial play led to Gonzalo Higuain’s winner. He has lived up to his reputation as a one man show in this tournament.

I don’t see anything changing for Argentina. The loss of Angel Di Maria is important but hardly fatal – Argentina have plenty of attacking players and it looks as though Sergio Aguero will be fit again. Holland have been far less convincing and their young defense will be in for a tough day. The Dutch defeated Uruguay 3-2 at this stage in 2010 and if there's a game in the semifinals with some scoring, I would expect it to be this one. If they are to go through, Robin Van Persie has to play significantly better. I don't think he will, and home advantage will rule again. Argentina, 2-1.

I'm sticking with my original guess at the beginning of the tournament - a Brazil-Argentina final. What a wild one that would be.

Trivia: Name the all-time leading World Cup goal scorer that isn’t from South America or Europe. (Hint: He played in this summer’s World Cup)

Last week’s answer: Norway. Brazil is 0-2-2 against the Norwegians, losing their one World Cup meeting 2-1 in 1998.

World Cup Round of 16 Recap, Reflections on USA and Quarterfinal Preview

Most exciting Round of 16 in my memory - that's for sure. Five of the eight matches went into extra time, two were decided on penalties, but somehow all eight of the group winners managed to go through. Defeat was cruelest on Chile, who hit the post in the last minute of extra time and then watched Gonzalo Jara's deciding penalty bounce off the inside of the right post and out. Eleven of the eighteen goals scored came in the 90th minute or later. Unbelievable drama.

I must say, as a USA fan, there was nothing left to give. It was heartbreaking to see the side go out given the chances they created in the final fifteen minutes, but there could be no argument over who the better side was. USA is making up a lot of ground in a short period of time - two tournaments in a row now they have gone past the group stage and three of their last four. They led Brazil 2-0 at the half in the 2009 Confederations Cup Final before going down 3-2, which came just after a 2-0 win over Euro 2008 champions Spain. These are moments that USA players and fans could not have dreamed of twenty or so years ago.

That being said, the gap is still there, and talent wise it is massive. The bottom line is that we had one forward who belonged in the team, and without Jozy, we were left with Dempsey, who is not a pure number 9, and a group of strikers who don't have a place on the top level of football. We brought on Chris Wondolowski, who is a poacher and good positioned forward, but no sort of elite talent. Belgium brought on Romelu Lukaku, a forward for Chelsea with a deadly combination of pace and strength. The future is very bright for the USA if their young players continue to develop and bring the sort of positive attitude to the game that we saw from Yedlin, Johnson and Green.

My last point about the USA is this whole notion of "we don't win because the talent plays other sports." That is completely false. There are 300 million people in this country; there are just under 17 million in Holland. Which country has an extremely decorated history in this sport? Football is not a game of talent and physicality - it comes from culture, time and experience. The USA team clearly has unity and fighting spirit - it is just missing the last bit of culture that comes from generations of experience at the top level.  Jurgen Klinsmann is bringing that bit of culture to this team and demanding it be more positive, and to stop giving too much "respect" to their opponents. This is exactly what is needed to bring the team from hopeful underdogs to a legitimate power. He is speeding up the process. By 2018, we should see a more comfortable USA, and hopefully we won't get such a demanding draw.

Anyway, we have three teams from South America, four from Europe, and one from good ol' CONCACAF. The South American sides were knocked out by other teams from their continent, and one more will go down this round after Brazil plays Colombia. I expect three of these four matchups to be absolute dynamite (guess the odd one out).

France – Germany 

France stayed perfect by seeing off Nigeria 2-0 but were slightly off of the pace. They had the better of the play for nearly the whole game but their two goals were from poor Nigerian mistakes and they were tested at the other end several times. Germany have not played a complete game since their 4-0 thumping of Portugal, and were inches away from going behind to Algeria in the first half. This is truly a matchup of titans and should be a testy affair.

I mentioned before this tournament that I saw a weakness in Germany in their holding midfield. Joachim Low has tried to play Philipp Lahm in that role and it has simply not worked. Lahm is a much better right back than holding midfield player, and with Sami Khedira out of form and Schweinsteiger playing injured, there is an obvious deficiency. France have Paul Pogba and Blaise Matuidi waiting to gobble them up. France have a strong, physical team and are playing better at the moment. Although he did not score against Nigeria, Karim Benzema was a threat all game and should find his way onto the score sheet here. France, 2-0.

Brazil – Colombia

Colombia are the tournament’s new dark horse. Cast aside by many, including myself, after losing star striker Radamel Falcao in February, Colombia has won all four of their games so far, scored at least twice in each, and has the tournament’s leading scorer and rising young star, James Rodriguez. Their next challenge? Tournament hosts and favorites Brazil, who have failed to impress in any of their fixtures so far. They will try to break the World Cup streak of eight straight losses for a team that won a penalty shootout in its last match – the last to win was France in 1998.

I can’t go against the hosts yet. They have lost just twice to Colombia in twenty-five matches and haven’t lost at home in a competitive match to anyone since 1975. Colombia have impressed me, but I don’t think any of their opponents were as good as they were believed to be before the tournament started. Brazil haven’t played the stiffest competition either, but the home support has been able to help the side squeeze out results. This little Copa America is a tough test for the hosts, but if they can click into gear now, they will be ready to go on to win the tournament. Brazil, 2-1.

Argentina – Belgium

This is just a great matchup. Similar teams with pacey wingers and loads of world class attacking talent. Belgium and Argentina are each a perfect four-for-four so far in this tournament, and interestingly, each side has won each of their games by a one-goal margin. Argentina were just good enough to find the late winner against the Swiss, while Belgium held on for dear life in the final fifteen minutes against USA after dominating the first 105. Are they out of energy?

Argentina have had strong fan support throughout the tournament, contrasted by the home Brazilian fans rooting against them. Belgium have a very strong side and will be difficult to penetrate. I expect a low scoring game. Both of these sides have created plenty of chances but few finishing touches. Fitness is about even given that both sides just played extra time and had wrapped up their respective groups after two games. This could go either way, but I will give the edge to the Argentines in South America. Argentina, 1-0.

Netherlands – Costa Rica

The Dutch struggled through most of their game against Mexico before finding two goals in the last five minutes of the game to turn it around. The penalty was courtesy of a trademark Arjen Robben flop, but I guess that is to be expected. Can’t be too upset when it happens to a player like Marquez. Costa Rica have slowed down every game, but turned in a valiant performance with ten men against Greece, winning the penalty shootout 5-3.

While Colombia is the fashionable dark horse, Costa Rica are the Cinderella story, hoping to knock off a third European powerhouse. I would really like to see them go through but I bet against them because I think they’re out of gas. After playing over an hour with ten men in the last round, plus the deteriorating level of performances as this tournament has gone on, it’s difficult to see them going through here. The Dutch have more rest, more ability, and more experience. Louis Van Gaal’s troops should be in the semifinals. Netherlands, 3-0.

I am going to add a trivia question to my posts from now on. The answer will come in the next post, or Google it if you’re impatient. This post’s question is:

Who is the only team Brazil have played, and not beaten?

WORLD CUP - Group Stage Roundup and Knockout Stage Preview

The group stages brought considerably more excitement than anyone expected. International football is usually predicated around playing “not-to-lose” instead of free-flowing attacking football seen more commonly on the club level. It was certainly fun to watch.  Four teams were perfect, while three picked up zero points. Fairly balanced overall, I would say. 

South America dominated and CONCACAF was very strong, while Asia failed to win a game and Europe struggled. Playing at home is still as important as ever. I still see Brazil winning, but they will have to improve.

Group A

I expected Brazil and Mexico to advance, and the results in this group went as I would have expected. Croatia is a better team than Mexico, but I’ve spoken in lengths about European struggles in South America, and with a roaring pro-Mexico crowd behind them, the Mexicans swept aside their more esteemed opponents in fifteen minutes with a three goal spurt. The 0-0 result between the advancing sides was not as surprising to me – Mexico had been solid defensively throughout qualifying and they had a good showing from their fans, which took a little bit of the swagger out of Brazil’s sails. Their goalkeeper Ochoa also played the game of his life and probably earned himself a big paycheck at the club level. 

Croatia were good, but just not good enough in their pivotal game. They were unlucky against Brazil on the penalty call, but already had the fortune of collecting an own goal in the first half. Cameroon was just plain ugly. They looked overmatched on paper to begin with, but the fighting between players and the constant distraction of Samuel Eto’o just turned their campaign into a complete disaster. They exit the World Cup with no points and a -8 goal differential, worst in the tournament. It’s time to blow up the team and start over. 

Group B

Well, well. Mighty Spain was bounced after just two games, officially ending the Spain-Barcelona era of dominance. I think it was ended by Brazil last summer after they hammered the Spanish 3-0 in the Confederations Cup Final, but there are no questions about that now. Spain were slow and sloppy throughout their first two matches, and they played two very opportunistic opponents who took full advantage. The FA should not fire Del Bosque, but this team must use more pace and less finesse to return to the top. Rumors of Xavi moving to the UAE from Barcelona this summer say it all for Spain.

Meanwhile, the Dutch won all three of their games and looked very dangerous in doing so. Goals came from all sides and Louis Van Gaal’s youngsters even defended quite well against Chile. Mexico will be a tough test, but Holland looks on top of their game at the moment. Chile also impressed, as their forwards ran circles around Australia and Spain. It doesn’t look good as they must play Brazil, but Chile will know their opponents and would probably prefer to counter attack anyway. I expect a close match. Australia played generally well, and Tim Cahill probably has the goal of the tournament at this point, but unfortunately for the Socceroos, it didn’t even earn them a point. They were always going to be up against it with the quality of opposition in this group, and with a young team, I expect bright things for Australia in the future. 

Group C

Colombia legitimately “wow-ed” me in the group stage. They crushed Greece, gritted out a win against Ivory Coast and blew out Japan for a +7 goal differential in what I thought was a pretty evenly matched group. This team proved it is not the Falcao show. They have made a ton of progress over the last four years. Greece qualified in the only way they know how to – look absolutely brutal but come up with a goal or two in the vital moments to sneak through. They certainly aren’t bad, but their only two goals came on a slip and a penalty, and while I’m aware they were down to ten men against Japan, they looked like they were headed straight home after two games. As it is, they face an inexperienced Costa Rica team that plays mostly on the counter. Can anybody give me a case that the result of that game isn’t 0-0?

Ivory Coast has fooled me for the last time. I won’t pick them again until I see tangible results on the intercontinental level. They looked good against Japan despite getting off to a slow start, but were just not good enough against a less-talented but harder working Colombia side, and were just off the pace against Greece. The only reason they won’t be looked down upon more is because in their same group, Japan was the bigger disappointment. They failed to hold a lead in their first game, only came close to breaking down ten-man Greece once, and were completely outclassed against Colombia. I thought this was the best team in Asia and maybe they are, but that really shows how far AFC is behind the rest of the world. One point from your “best” team is a bad sign, and every team from AFC is out of the competition already, with no wins between the four sides. 

Group D

Costa Rica are the current darlings of the tournament, written off as the “fourth” team in the group but playing very well and winning the group with two wins and a draw. I thought they were better than people gave them credit for but certainly not good enough to beat two of the best sides in the world. They’re not going to take anyone by surprise at this point but it’s been a great showing so far from the Costa Ricans. 

Uruguay’s success is tied to Luis Suarez in my mind, and with him suspended, I would consider their chances pretty much finished. There’s something mentally wrong with Suarez, and it’s a shame because he’s one of the top strikers in the world. A four-month ban is just, and even though it may get reduced, he has forever soured his reputation in the international community. It’s also very strange that he actually has bit someone on a soccer field at least three times (I would guess that’s happened more before he was famous). Italy were unlucky but were also poor against Costa Rica and failed to score outside of their first match. They were very disappointing for me as I expected Balotelli to play better, but following Bryan Ruiz’s goal I never saw the same flow from Italy’s midfield. It’s a puzzling exit but certainly not a disgraceful one. This team will be able to challenge for the trophy in the next European tournament. 

England is just too typical. I said they would come in last and come in last they did, despite not playing all that badly. If I can guess the scores of their final two games correctly, they are too predictable, and their media reaction was standard as well. It’s just funny how hyped up the team was in a group where they were overmatched. I feel bad for Steven Gerrard just because he lost the Premier League essentially on his slip against Chelsea and they were knocked out of the World Cup on that bizarre header he hit straight to Suarez. But England earns no sympathy from me. The results just don’t come. 

Group E

France produced two spectacular performances against Honduras and Switzerland to rave reviews. Their performance against Ecuador was more down-to-Earth, but France have still looked like one of the strongest teams thus far. They’ve attacked with pace and shown the ability to take over games. They also have a ton of depth. A possible Germany-France matchup could happen in the quarterfinals – that would be a must watch. The Swiss are through too despite getting torn apart by France, but the Swiss have quite a bit of talent, and Xherdan Shiqiri’s hat trick against Honduras was world class. That France game really puzzled me. This is a good team, and a tricky one to play against, but I’m not sure they have it in them to pull a major upset. 

Ecuador are South America’s only early exit, which speaks more of the quality of the continent’s teams than Ecuador’s faults. After the tragic death of Christian Benitez last year, it was good for the game to see Ecuador make it to the World Cup. Unfortunately, Ecuador was the least talented South American side to make it and have traditionally been much better at home, where they play at a very high altitude, versus abroad. They were still close, but that last-minute defeat to the Swiss was the killer. Honduras are simply not on the same level as the other teams in the group. They did very well to make it this far, but were simply overmatched in each game. The three losses are certainly disappointing, but not unexpected for the team. The goal for Costly against Ecuador was a nice moment. 

Group F

Argentina won all three of their games in Group F, but didn’t particularly impress in any of them. They had the weakest opponents of any of the big favorites, and won each game by a single goal. The game against Iran was particularly troubling – Iran had two great chances to score and a pretty strong penalty shout in the second half. The good news is that Messi seems to have recovered the form he lost over the last few months with Barcelona. He has been carrying the team, and the rest of the squad will have to show up if they’re going to make a deep run. Nigeria were pretty solid. They were slow and boring against Iran, but played very well against Bosnia and hit Argentina well on the counter. This team has been improving since the tournament started, and their defense produced two clean sheets. 

Bosnia were a disappointment to me – teams rarely do well on their first appearance in the World Cup, but Bosnia are loaded and should have done better. They made mistakes and were punished each time, which does not always happen, but at this level the mistakes must be eliminated. I would chalk it up mostly to inexperience, especially on the managerial level. Bosnia made it to Brazil because they played attacking football with two strikers, Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic. They started their first two games with just Dzeko, and he was noticeably stranded. In their third game they started both players and scored three goals. They will learn and continue to improve. Iran was simply happy to be in the finals, but they were actually rather impressive. They played good defense and really could have beaten Argentina. Unlucky more than poor execution from the Iranians. 

Group G

Germany stuck up for Europe and as coach Joachim Low stated, dominated. I thought they were poor against Ghana in the second half, but were dominant in their other two matches. They certainly showed up and while they do have weaknesses, this team is going to be a tough out. USA were also impressive, and even more so when you consider they lost striker Jozy Altidore twenty minutes into their first match, and their most influential player, Michael Bradley, has yet to play a good game. The last-minute concession against Portugal was devastating, but this team deserves to be through and has a dangerous feel about it. 

Ghana unraveled, with Sulley Muntari and Kevin Prince-Boateng sent home before the team’s final game. They were still a goal away at one point from going through, but it never came. They were again Africa’s best hope for a deep run but came up short at the first hurdle. Portugal produced the tournament’s worst performance against Germany in their 4-0 defeat, but recovered pretty well and collected four points from their last two matches. That hole was always going to be too steep unless they beat the USA, but I did not expect Portugal to show up after the first game. Ronaldo was poor. Other than his majestic cross to Varela to steal a point, he was sloppy and wasteful. His one goal was handed to him on a silver platter and he didn’t come close to scoring one otherwise. I don’t blame him for their exit, but it is impossible to argue against Messi’s ability to carry Argentina, while Ronaldo could not carry Portugal. 

Group H

Belgium were the last of the four perfect teams, and may have also been the least impressive. They were very strong defensively, having majority possession in all of their matches, while conceding just one goal on a penalty. They did score just four goals and struggled to break down any of their three opponents. They are very talented but inexperienced at this level, and they will need to play much better in the knockout round. Algeria were a nice surprise – they were timid in 2010 and played much more freely this time around. Sofiane Feghouli has been the star as Algeria scored six times versus zero in 2010. It’s unfortunate that they will have to play Germany, but Algeria can be very proud of their showing so far, and they looked like they have enjoyed the ride. From the first game, they looked like a much more confident team.

If you watched the Russia – South Korea game, you’d understand why both teams are out. Russia could not create any offense and goalie Igor Akinfeev, who had been linked to big clubs in Europe in the past, baffled the minds of fans. I have never seen him or any other goalie make so many errors in such a short series of matches. I don’t blame him alone for their exit but he is directly to blame for two of the three goals Russia conceded, which in essence cost them four points. Without Alan Dzagoev starting, Russia were barely a threat going forward and that’s what really did them in. South Korea have been in decline since their sketchy run to the semi-final in 2002, but this was much worse than expected. They were overmatched in each game and showed very little creativity. There aren’t many good points to take from this World Cup for the Koreans. 

My brief thoughts on the round of 16: 

Brazil : Chile – I have the hosts winning this tournament, and while Chile have played well thus far, this task should be too great for them. Brazil have yet to play a complete game thus far, but have plenty of firepower to score on a disciplined opponent. Brazil, 2-0. 

Colombia : Uruguay – Uruguay’s success seems to correlate to Luis Suarez’s performances, and his ban will really hurt his team. Colombia have been superb thus far and I don’t see them tripping up here. Colombia, 3-1. 

Netherlands : Mexico – This game should be very close. The Dutch are a better side but Mexico have played very well and will have a strong showing from their fans. Could be quite a bit of fireworks in this one. Netherlands, 2-1. 

Costa Rica : Greece – If this game has more than one goal in it, I would be surprised. In fact, I don’t expect any goals at all. Costa Rica has played counterattacking football while Greece pretty much packs the back. This game is very likely to end 0-0 and go to penalties. Those are always tough to call, but given a shootout I would take Greece. I do see Costa Rica as the likelier team to score in open play. 

France : Nigeria – France will have some issues dealing with Nigeria’s fast, physical forwards but they are so much stronger in the midfield and defense. Don’t expect France to go down this early. France, 2-0.

Germany : Algeria – Germany are the strongest European side and they should have little trouble with Algeria. I expect a slightly cagey first half but the Germans to eventually take over. Germany, 2-0. 

Argentina : Switzerland – Argentina are big favorites here but have yet to impress. I think the Swiss have a shot at upsetting anyone, but not here. Argentina need someone to step up other than Messi, but he has been unstoppable thus far. Argentina, 2-1. 

Belgium : USA – This is probably the tightest matchup of this round. Belgium was able to rest some players and has a deeper side than the USA, but the American midfield has been superb thus far despite Michael Bradley playing far below his standards. I’m just hoping they don’t run out of gas. USA, 1-0.