Arrogance, Lack of Perspective Doom USA to Embarrassing Disqualification

Last night's 2-1 loss to Trinidad & Tobago means that the United States will miss the World Cup for the first time since 1986. This is an unacceptable result for a national team fan. This is hardly a country built on soccer, but the manner of last night's defeat displayed the difference between a fan's disappointment and anger at defeat. USA fans should be upset.

There are plenty of reasons to be upset. One of them is not because Costa Rica, Panama and Honduras, who qualified ahead of us, have about the same combined population as New York. Size does not matter in soccer. Iceland has been a top-10 team in the world over the past eighteen months - they play with spirit and emotion. Our team doesn't have either and doesn't have enough talent (like Argentina) to overcome tricky opponents when not playing well.

One of the main reasons to be upset is because there were so many mistakes made during this qualification campaign that could, and should, have been avoided. We made a criminal mistake by pulling an England - firing our foreign manager halfway through the campaign to hire someone from our home country in a vain attempt to unite the team. Pulling an England in anything soccer-related is never good (see:Iceland) and while I voiced my displeasure with Jurgen Klinsmann, the solution was obviously not Bruce Arena. Bruce did a great job to take the team to the World Cup in the 2000's - the manner of our defeat in the group stages in 2006 showed that he was not a top-quality manager. It was established at that time that he had taken us as far as he could - something I praise and commend him for. So, 8 years with the LA Galaxy took him to another level? You've got to be kidding. Analysts spoke of his "long undefeated run" prior to last month's home defeat to Costa Rica, despite the only win of merit in that entire run being a 2-0 home win in the Gold Cup against Costa Rica, which was easily cancelled out considering we drew two competitive matches with Panama. The manager doesn't have the quality required and he was only hired because he is an American. Pull an England and you're going to be out of whatever tournament you're playing in. This mistake was visible from the beginning.

The players did little to help. Our players aren't overly talented but without question are more talented than at least Panama and Honduras. They played with no focus and no discipline under Klinsmann, which was somewhat understandable given that Klinsmann was never known as much of a tactician, and the players clearly lost faith in him prior to their heavy defeat in Costa Rica. Perhaps it is more disturbing that this did not change under Arena, who was brought in to be a uniting force. That we could lose to a terrible team who had nothing to play for, a team with one win to eight losses in their previous nine matches, says quite a bit about the fight our team possesses right now. We deserved to lose as well. We have several good players but they never seem to be on the same page, and once things go against us, there doesn't seem to be much belief. We picked up only three points from a possible fifteen in our road matches. No spine whatsoever.

It shouldn't be difficult for us to qualify for the World Cup, but expectations are completely out of whack with this team. I think Americans are used to thinking they are the best at everything, or can be the best at everything eventually, while any neutral fan can see that we are nowhere close to top quality. When Arena spoke of the difficulty of qualifying from CONCACAF this week, specifically "challenging" a European team to consider how difficult it is to qualify in North America, it showed a shocking lack of perspective. He is not incorrect that CONCACAF offers a unique challenge - weather and pitch conditions in Central America are no picnic. But I can assure Bruce that Germany would much rather play in a qualification zone where they only have to finish in the top 4 (out of 6!!) to either be in or reach a playoff. UEFA requires a first-place group finish to automatically qualify, while only eight of the nine second-placed teams go to playoffs. Italy, Croatia and Switzerland are among the playoff teams in UEFA; Panama (ranked 60th in the world) has an automatic berth. Bruce, watch some soccer outside of LA. CONCACAF is little league - UEFA and CONMEBOL (South America) are the majors.

After all that, there is a lot of hope for the future. Step one will be getting an experienced manager who can handle a number of different styles. It is clear that the players have not meshed well during the campaign and I believe this to be a result of half of the team playing in Europe and the other half in the USA. Obviously European clubs are of better quality, but it is the contrasting styles that are giving our team the biggest problem. Neither Klinsmann nor Arena could find a system or starting eleven that worked. Our new coach has to be able to combine the finesse game of Europe with the physical nature of the MLS. If we can set a tactical game plan, we have the best talent we've ever had in Christian Pulisic growing into a superstar. He will be good enough to carry us to the World Cup on his own in four years, so hopefully we don't take his talent for granted. I am embarrassed for our team last night, but can see how some relatively minor changes in attitude, from management all of the way down to fans, will yield much better results. The bright side of losing last night was sparing us the further embarrassment of being pounded in the World Cup next summer - maybe our team could learn more by watching than playing.

Copa America Centenario Preview: Don’t Expect Much From Team USA

On June 3, the United States has the unique opportunity to host the Copa America, the South American version of the European Championships (which begin June 10 in France, preview coming soon). It’s kind of odd in many ways, as not only has the tournament never been held outside of South America, but it’s usually every four years, and they just had it last year (Chile won as hosts). I’m not complaining though, more competitive soccer for us. The tournament is a commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the first tournament in 1916.

There are a handful of teams capable of winning the competition. However, we are not one of them, barring a ridiculous Greece-like run. The shameful fourth-place finish we had in last year’s Gold Cup doesn’t seem like an inflection point as much as it seems like a continuation of the downward trend under Jurgen Klinsmann. Klinsmann has done some nice things with the team, and he certainly has strengthened the talent pool for years to come by attracting “foreign” players. However, his in-game coaching is clearly lacking, as Phillip Lahm so eloquently put in 2011, “he doesn’t do tactics.” Over the last ten months, we’ve lost competitive matches to Jamaica, Panama (both at home), Mexico (at home, with a chance to go to the Confederations Cup next year), and Guatemala. Ugh. We should be able to beat Jamaica and Guatemala with me coaching the side but somehow we didn’t. My waning hope for this team rests on the first match, against Colombia. If we can get a positive result in that game (which for me would be a draw), we could make a somewhat deep run, especially considering we’re hosts. I don’t see it, and although I think we can beat Costa Rica and possibly Paraguay, I simply don’t have the faith in Klinsmann to put any expectation behind it. I’ll be happy if we get out of the group.

Colombia is the best team in Group A; they should win it without an issue. The other three sides are set to fight for second, and it should be pretty tight. I’m going to take us for second just because I want to see it happen. There’s nothing particularly special about either Paraguay or Costa Rica, although Paraguay were finalists in the 2011 version.  Group B should be a breeze for Brazil. They could probably beat Haiti with nine men, and history suggests Peru and Ecuador have little chance of securing a point. Haiti is a clear level below the others in this group. Peru and Ecuador, two teams used to playing at high altitudes, play on June 8 in Glendale at an elevation of just 522 feet. I expect both teams to be uncomfortable there and a draw is likely, meaning second-place could come down to their goal differences in their nearly-inevitable wins against Haiti and losses against Brazil. I like Ecuador to take second.

Group C should be the tightest overall. Mexico plays their three matches in Arizona, California and Texas so they’re basically hosting as well. Their first match, June 5 against Uruguay, will be the most entertaining. Pichichi winner and constant antagonist Luis Suarez will be a menace for Uruguay, and last year’s Gold Cup winners haven’t convinced me they have the attacking power to keep up. Suarez’s fitness will play a large role in deciding this group. As of right now, I’m assuming he will be fit by ranking Uruguay fifth. If he is unable to play, I would drop them to eighth. Leicester’s Wes Morgan leads Jamaica into the tournament, runners-up to Mexico in the aforementioned Gold Cup. Jamaica isn’t very good, but their experience is in defense, so they could be tough to break down. Venezuela is a bit of a wild card but their results have been poor in qualifying and I don’t expect that to change here. Uruguay and Mexico should navigate through Group C. Group D features two of the tournament’s best sides – Argentina and Chile, who played in last year’s Copa America final – and two of its worst, Panama and Bolivia. Argentina and Chile play on June 6 in Santa Clara, each team’s first game, so we should be in for an entertaining rematch. The other two sides don’t have nearly enough talent or experience to keep up.

My pick for the tournament winner is Argentina – they have the best team and will be smarting after last year’s shootout loss to Chile in the final.

See the below table for my full predictions for the opening round. The teams are ranked 1-16 (by me) and are formatted to show the potential disparity or closeness in ranking. The recent results highlighted in green are particularly important; the ones in red you can disregard. This is because of the timing of the recent matches or the competitiveness of them. Most recent result is listed first. 

WORLD CUP - Saying Goodbye to Brazil & Final Preview

Everything seemed to be going to plan before Brazil faced Germany in the first semifinal.

Then, after a 7-1 beatdown, the hosts' hopes were smashed into tiny little pieces. So what happened?

Well, it seems as though Brazil coach Scolari went for an all-or-nothing strategy from the beginning, which on its own is just silly. He chose Bernard ahead of Willian which is understandable, but still a poor choice. Bernard had only played briefly in the tournament and did not pose much of a threat, whereas Willian has a year of Premier League experience under his belt. For the first few minutes, Brazil had the ball and controlled the game. But once they gave the ball up, it was, to be kind, a mess. The first goal they conceded was basic defending - David Luiz lost track of Muller, allowing him to tap it in from six yards out. How do you leave the opponents' leading scorer all alone?

The second goal was well worked by the Germans, but still showed Brazil's unwillingness to defend. Klose fired off a quick shot which Cesar saved, but no one picked up Klose for the rebound for him to tap in. Marcelo had kept Klose onside to begin with, then watched him shoot twice right in front of him.

From that point on, it was always going to be difficult, but Brazil simply gave up. Luiz, tearful at the end of the game, claimed that Brazil "had given everything, but didn't make it." That is just not true. They did not give everything, and while this Brazil team will always be haunted by the scoreline of the game, it is that attitude that is the most damning. Germany blew a four-goal lead to Sweden in a half-hour at home during qualifying; there was no reason to give up. Their defense was scrambling all over the place whenever Germany possessed the ball. Four of the five first half goals for Germany were tap ins. Honestly, if I didn't know the names of the teams or the stage of the game I would have thought that either this was a pro team against an amateur team or that Brazil was throwing the game. After the break they were better but still not hustling. Neuer made some good saves but Schurrle's two goals were more lazy defending by Dante and Luiz. The absence of Thiago Silva was going to matter much more than the storyline favorite Neymar, and while his absence alone did not cause the heavy defeat, it certainly played a major role. Dante had no clue, Luiz couldn't mark anyone and Maicon and Marcelo were constantly caught up the field and leaving their partners out to dry. The midfield was just as bad.

Everyone who reads this blog knows I picked Brazil, and have been saying so for about a year. They were out to erase memories of 1950, where their crushing 2-1 defeat to Uruguay left the nation shocked and saddened. They certainly erased those memories - they made more painful ones, which wasn't thought to be possible.

The biggest beneficiary to this Brazil debacle, other than the Germans and any people who dislike Brazil, is Luis Suarez. World Cups are remembered for the winners and the story lines, and while there have been nice stories like Costa Rica's run to the quarterfinals, the USA's advancement from a tough group, and rising star James Rodriguez, the biggest story line was the bite Suarez inflicted on Giorgio Chiellini's back. Now, that will fade to the background, as this will always be the World Cup where Brazil was humiliated. Suarez has moved on to Barcelona and can start again after his four month ban. Brazil can not.

The Netherlands - Argentina game was pretty dull. I was surprised the Dutch didn't try to attack more, and even more so when Louis Van Gaal used his final substitution to bring on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Even if Tim Krul couldn't replicate his performance against Costa Rica, he would at least have a psychological edge in the shootout. Van Gaal didn't have his team attack enough to justify not saving a substitution for Krul. Argentina were decent but lacked cutting edge. They did have a perfectly good goal by Gonzalo Higuain wrongly ruled out for offside. They kept a third straight clean sheet, and it's that type of defensive work that will be needed against the Germans.

The third place game should be interesting, but all of the focus is on the final. I think Brazil will play better but still lose to the Netherlands. The Dutch have performed well against Brazil and I expect the hosts to still be a bit shocked.

Germany - Argentina

A rematch of the 1986 and 1990 World Cup Finals, one won by West Germany and the other by Argentina. These two sides were probably the second and third favorites after Brazil at the start of the tournament. Germany has impressed throughout this summer's event - defensively controlling games through the midfield while also clinically finishing their opportunities. Argentina haven't been nearly as convincing, but five victories by a one-goal margin and the shootout victory have gotten them here.

At this point, Germany has to be a big favorite. There is a possibility of a let down after such a large victory, but Germany is clicking on all cylinders. They could have scored ten against Brazil and have played better in each of the last three games. Argentina will have fantastic support from their fans and Messi is always a threat.

I can see either side winning this game but Germany looks like the better side. After defeating Brazil, they have proved themselves as the best team in the world, and their midfield is dominant. I don't see Argentina's midfield being able to possess the ball for long stretches like they have in previous games. Argentina's hopes lie in their attacking players. Messi can make a play at any time, and even though he has not played well thus far, so can Aguero. Higuain will probably start up top but expect Aguero at some point. Their pace could cause some problems but I expect Germany to control the game.

Final Prediction: Germany 2, Argentina 0

Trivia: Germany and Argentina are meeting for a third time in the World Cup Final, the most matchups between any two sides. Who are the two teams that have played each other twice in World Cup Finals? (All other matchups have only happened once.)

Last post's answer was Asamoah Gyan, of Ghana. He has scored six goals in the World Cup, including one in this year's tournament.

WORLD CUP - Group Stage Roundup and Knockout Stage Preview

The group stages brought considerably more excitement than anyone expected. International football is usually predicated around playing “not-to-lose” instead of free-flowing attacking football seen more commonly on the club level. It was certainly fun to watch.  Four teams were perfect, while three picked up zero points. Fairly balanced overall, I would say. 

South America dominated and CONCACAF was very strong, while Asia failed to win a game and Europe struggled. Playing at home is still as important as ever. I still see Brazil winning, but they will have to improve.

Group A

I expected Brazil and Mexico to advance, and the results in this group went as I would have expected. Croatia is a better team than Mexico, but I’ve spoken in lengths about European struggles in South America, and with a roaring pro-Mexico crowd behind them, the Mexicans swept aside their more esteemed opponents in fifteen minutes with a three goal spurt. The 0-0 result between the advancing sides was not as surprising to me – Mexico had been solid defensively throughout qualifying and they had a good showing from their fans, which took a little bit of the swagger out of Brazil’s sails. Their goalkeeper Ochoa also played the game of his life and probably earned himself a big paycheck at the club level. 

Croatia were good, but just not good enough in their pivotal game. They were unlucky against Brazil on the penalty call, but already had the fortune of collecting an own goal in the first half. Cameroon was just plain ugly. They looked overmatched on paper to begin with, but the fighting between players and the constant distraction of Samuel Eto’o just turned their campaign into a complete disaster. They exit the World Cup with no points and a -8 goal differential, worst in the tournament. It’s time to blow up the team and start over. 

Group B

Well, well. Mighty Spain was bounced after just two games, officially ending the Spain-Barcelona era of dominance. I think it was ended by Brazil last summer after they hammered the Spanish 3-0 in the Confederations Cup Final, but there are no questions about that now. Spain were slow and sloppy throughout their first two matches, and they played two very opportunistic opponents who took full advantage. The FA should not fire Del Bosque, but this team must use more pace and less finesse to return to the top. Rumors of Xavi moving to the UAE from Barcelona this summer say it all for Spain.

Meanwhile, the Dutch won all three of their games and looked very dangerous in doing so. Goals came from all sides and Louis Van Gaal’s youngsters even defended quite well against Chile. Mexico will be a tough test, but Holland looks on top of their game at the moment. Chile also impressed, as their forwards ran circles around Australia and Spain. It doesn’t look good as they must play Brazil, but Chile will know their opponents and would probably prefer to counter attack anyway. I expect a close match. Australia played generally well, and Tim Cahill probably has the goal of the tournament at this point, but unfortunately for the Socceroos, it didn’t even earn them a point. They were always going to be up against it with the quality of opposition in this group, and with a young team, I expect bright things for Australia in the future. 

Group C

Colombia legitimately “wow-ed” me in the group stage. They crushed Greece, gritted out a win against Ivory Coast and blew out Japan for a +7 goal differential in what I thought was a pretty evenly matched group. This team proved it is not the Falcao show. They have made a ton of progress over the last four years. Greece qualified in the only way they know how to – look absolutely brutal but come up with a goal or two in the vital moments to sneak through. They certainly aren’t bad, but their only two goals came on a slip and a penalty, and while I’m aware they were down to ten men against Japan, they looked like they were headed straight home after two games. As it is, they face an inexperienced Costa Rica team that plays mostly on the counter. Can anybody give me a case that the result of that game isn’t 0-0?

Ivory Coast has fooled me for the last time. I won’t pick them again until I see tangible results on the intercontinental level. They looked good against Japan despite getting off to a slow start, but were just not good enough against a less-talented but harder working Colombia side, and were just off the pace against Greece. The only reason they won’t be looked down upon more is because in their same group, Japan was the bigger disappointment. They failed to hold a lead in their first game, only came close to breaking down ten-man Greece once, and were completely outclassed against Colombia. I thought this was the best team in Asia and maybe they are, but that really shows how far AFC is behind the rest of the world. One point from your “best” team is a bad sign, and every team from AFC is out of the competition already, with no wins between the four sides. 

Group D

Costa Rica are the current darlings of the tournament, written off as the “fourth” team in the group but playing very well and winning the group with two wins and a draw. I thought they were better than people gave them credit for but certainly not good enough to beat two of the best sides in the world. They’re not going to take anyone by surprise at this point but it’s been a great showing so far from the Costa Ricans. 

Uruguay’s success is tied to Luis Suarez in my mind, and with him suspended, I would consider their chances pretty much finished. There’s something mentally wrong with Suarez, and it’s a shame because he’s one of the top strikers in the world. A four-month ban is just, and even though it may get reduced, he has forever soured his reputation in the international community. It’s also very strange that he actually has bit someone on a soccer field at least three times (I would guess that’s happened more before he was famous). Italy were unlucky but were also poor against Costa Rica and failed to score outside of their first match. They were very disappointing for me as I expected Balotelli to play better, but following Bryan Ruiz’s goal I never saw the same flow from Italy’s midfield. It’s a puzzling exit but certainly not a disgraceful one. This team will be able to challenge for the trophy in the next European tournament. 

England is just too typical. I said they would come in last and come in last they did, despite not playing all that badly. If I can guess the scores of their final two games correctly, they are too predictable, and their media reaction was standard as well. It’s just funny how hyped up the team was in a group where they were overmatched. I feel bad for Steven Gerrard just because he lost the Premier League essentially on his slip against Chelsea and they were knocked out of the World Cup on that bizarre header he hit straight to Suarez. But England earns no sympathy from me. The results just don’t come. 

Group E

France produced two spectacular performances against Honduras and Switzerland to rave reviews. Their performance against Ecuador was more down-to-Earth, but France have still looked like one of the strongest teams thus far. They’ve attacked with pace and shown the ability to take over games. They also have a ton of depth. A possible Germany-France matchup could happen in the quarterfinals – that would be a must watch. The Swiss are through too despite getting torn apart by France, but the Swiss have quite a bit of talent, and Xherdan Shiqiri’s hat trick against Honduras was world class. That France game really puzzled me. This is a good team, and a tricky one to play against, but I’m not sure they have it in them to pull a major upset. 

Ecuador are South America’s only early exit, which speaks more of the quality of the continent’s teams than Ecuador’s faults. After the tragic death of Christian Benitez last year, it was good for the game to see Ecuador make it to the World Cup. Unfortunately, Ecuador was the least talented South American side to make it and have traditionally been much better at home, where they play at a very high altitude, versus abroad. They were still close, but that last-minute defeat to the Swiss was the killer. Honduras are simply not on the same level as the other teams in the group. They did very well to make it this far, but were simply overmatched in each game. The three losses are certainly disappointing, but not unexpected for the team. The goal for Costly against Ecuador was a nice moment. 

Group F

Argentina won all three of their games in Group F, but didn’t particularly impress in any of them. They had the weakest opponents of any of the big favorites, and won each game by a single goal. The game against Iran was particularly troubling – Iran had two great chances to score and a pretty strong penalty shout in the second half. The good news is that Messi seems to have recovered the form he lost over the last few months with Barcelona. He has been carrying the team, and the rest of the squad will have to show up if they’re going to make a deep run. Nigeria were pretty solid. They were slow and boring against Iran, but played very well against Bosnia and hit Argentina well on the counter. This team has been improving since the tournament started, and their defense produced two clean sheets. 

Bosnia were a disappointment to me – teams rarely do well on their first appearance in the World Cup, but Bosnia are loaded and should have done better. They made mistakes and were punished each time, which does not always happen, but at this level the mistakes must be eliminated. I would chalk it up mostly to inexperience, especially on the managerial level. Bosnia made it to Brazil because they played attacking football with two strikers, Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic. They started their first two games with just Dzeko, and he was noticeably stranded. In their third game they started both players and scored three goals. They will learn and continue to improve. Iran was simply happy to be in the finals, but they were actually rather impressive. They played good defense and really could have beaten Argentina. Unlucky more than poor execution from the Iranians. 

Group G

Germany stuck up for Europe and as coach Joachim Low stated, dominated. I thought they were poor against Ghana in the second half, but were dominant in their other two matches. They certainly showed up and while they do have weaknesses, this team is going to be a tough out. USA were also impressive, and even more so when you consider they lost striker Jozy Altidore twenty minutes into their first match, and their most influential player, Michael Bradley, has yet to play a good game. The last-minute concession against Portugal was devastating, but this team deserves to be through and has a dangerous feel about it. 

Ghana unraveled, with Sulley Muntari and Kevin Prince-Boateng sent home before the team’s final game. They were still a goal away at one point from going through, but it never came. They were again Africa’s best hope for a deep run but came up short at the first hurdle. Portugal produced the tournament’s worst performance against Germany in their 4-0 defeat, but recovered pretty well and collected four points from their last two matches. That hole was always going to be too steep unless they beat the USA, but I did not expect Portugal to show up after the first game. Ronaldo was poor. Other than his majestic cross to Varela to steal a point, he was sloppy and wasteful. His one goal was handed to him on a silver platter and he didn’t come close to scoring one otherwise. I don’t blame him for their exit, but it is impossible to argue against Messi’s ability to carry Argentina, while Ronaldo could not carry Portugal. 

Group H

Belgium were the last of the four perfect teams, and may have also been the least impressive. They were very strong defensively, having majority possession in all of their matches, while conceding just one goal on a penalty. They did score just four goals and struggled to break down any of their three opponents. They are very talented but inexperienced at this level, and they will need to play much better in the knockout round. Algeria were a nice surprise – they were timid in 2010 and played much more freely this time around. Sofiane Feghouli has been the star as Algeria scored six times versus zero in 2010. It’s unfortunate that they will have to play Germany, but Algeria can be very proud of their showing so far, and they looked like they have enjoyed the ride. From the first game, they looked like a much more confident team.

If you watched the Russia – South Korea game, you’d understand why both teams are out. Russia could not create any offense and goalie Igor Akinfeev, who had been linked to big clubs in Europe in the past, baffled the minds of fans. I have never seen him or any other goalie make so many errors in such a short series of matches. I don’t blame him alone for their exit but he is directly to blame for two of the three goals Russia conceded, which in essence cost them four points. Without Alan Dzagoev starting, Russia were barely a threat going forward and that’s what really did them in. South Korea have been in decline since their sketchy run to the semi-final in 2002, but this was much worse than expected. They were overmatched in each game and showed very little creativity. There aren’t many good points to take from this World Cup for the Koreans. 

My brief thoughts on the round of 16: 

Brazil : Chile – I have the hosts winning this tournament, and while Chile have played well thus far, this task should be too great for them. Brazil have yet to play a complete game thus far, but have plenty of firepower to score on a disciplined opponent. Brazil, 2-0. 

Colombia : Uruguay – Uruguay’s success seems to correlate to Luis Suarez’s performances, and his ban will really hurt his team. Colombia have been superb thus far and I don’t see them tripping up here. Colombia, 3-1. 

Netherlands : Mexico – This game should be very close. The Dutch are a better side but Mexico have played very well and will have a strong showing from their fans. Could be quite a bit of fireworks in this one. Netherlands, 2-1. 

Costa Rica : Greece – If this game has more than one goal in it, I would be surprised. In fact, I don’t expect any goals at all. Costa Rica has played counterattacking football while Greece pretty much packs the back. This game is very likely to end 0-0 and go to penalties. Those are always tough to call, but given a shootout I would take Greece. I do see Costa Rica as the likelier team to score in open play. 

France : Nigeria – France will have some issues dealing with Nigeria’s fast, physical forwards but they are so much stronger in the midfield and defense. Don’t expect France to go down this early. France, 2-0.

Germany : Algeria – Germany are the strongest European side and they should have little trouble with Algeria. I expect a slightly cagey first half but the Germans to eventually take over. Germany, 2-0. 

Argentina : Switzerland – Argentina are big favorites here but have yet to impress. I think the Swiss have a shot at upsetting anyone, but not here. Argentina need someone to step up other than Messi, but he has been unstoppable thus far. Argentina, 2-1. 

Belgium : USA – This is probably the tightest matchup of this round. Belgium was able to rest some players and has a deeper side than the USA, but the American midfield has been superb thus far despite Michael Bradley playing far below his standards. I’m just hoping they don’t run out of gas. USA, 1-0.

2014 FIFA World Cup Qualification Update - 21 Teams In

All of the group stages for qualification to next summer’s World Cup are finished. 21 places have been clinched, while the final 11 will be decided through playoffs. Four places belong to UEFA, five to CAF, one to the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, and one to the CONCACAF-OFC playoff. It’s the last chance for these teams to reach next year’s main event in Brazil.

AFC

Qualified: Iran (1st, Group A), South Korea (2nd, Group A), Japan (1st, Group B), Australia (2nd, Group B) 

Playoff: Jordan (3rd, Group B) – qualified to play Uruguay

No big updates here, the four qualified sides had already done so months ago. The news here is that Jordan’s opponent in the international playoff will be fifth-placed CONMEBOL side Uruguay. A victory over a two-legged tie seems just about impossible for the Middle Eastern country. Have stranger things happened? I suppose, but if Jordan knocks Uruguay out of the World Cup it would be among the biggest shocks in football history. Best of luck.  

CAF

Playoffs – First Leg Results

Ivory Coast 3:1 Senegal

Ethiopia 1:2 Nigeria

Tunisia 0:0 Cameroon

Ghana 6:1 Egypt

Burkina Faso 3:2 Algeria

Analysis: Ivory Coast are off to a strong start against Senegal, and should find their way through to the World Cup. A late away goal from Papiss Cisse gives Senegal a chance, but Ivory Coast are the best team in this region and will likely score themselves in the return leg. Nigeria received the dream draw by receiving minnows Ethiopia, and took full advantage despite falling behind early in the second half. The one-goal lead and the two away goals give Nigeria almost a sure-fire place in next summer’s tournament. Ghana absolutely hammered Egypt, leaving the second leg a mere formality. At 3-1, and even 4-1, you would give the Egyptian side a sliver of hope, but a five-goal deficit will be too much for Bob Bradley’s upstart team to overcome. A traditional powerhouse, Ghana has booked their place in Brazil. The other two ties have all to play for. Burkina Faso managed a late winner against Algeria but conceded twice, and Algeria will head home knowing a goal would send them through. Expect them to take care of Burkina Faso with far less drama than they experienced against Egypt four years ago. Tunisia was reinserted into this draw after Cape Verde fielded an ineligible player in their final group game, which the island side had won 2-0. Instead the game was ruled a forfeit, and a 3-0 win for Tunisia, sending them through to the playoffs. They played out a 0-0 draw at home which leaves everything in the balance for next month’s decider in Cameroon. This one will be very tough to call, but Cameroon will be slight favorites to qualify.

CONCACAF

Qualified: United States (1st), Costa Rica (2nd), Honduras (3rd)

Playoff: Mexico (4th)

The United States and Costa Rica qualified last month, while Honduras joined them with a win against the Costa Ricans. Mexico will play in the intercontinental playoff against New Zealand after finishing fourth in the group.

Mexico was pathetic in this qualification round. It always seemed like the Mexicans would turn it around in time to qualify for next summer’s tournament, but are now in the playoff thanks to, of all teams, the United States. Two injury-time goals gave the US a 3-2 win over Panama, which was inconsequential to their position but knocked the Panamanians out. They would have advanced on goals scored had they won 2-1. As it is, Mexico gets to play a New Zealand team that is stronger than Asian playoff side Jordan, but not very tough. This is a tie Mexico should win easily, but can we really expect that at this point? Two wins from ten in qualifying, just seven goals scored, and four goalless draws support the idea that Mexico is still ripe for the picking. Will they actually fall? I doubt it, but even if they do qualify for next summer’s tournament, how can they expect to make any kind of impact? At the very least, Mexico must record a heavy victory over the two legs to instill some confidence before next summer. That is, if they make it.

CONMEBOL

Qualified: Brazil (host), Argentina (1st), Colombia (2nd), Chile (3rd), Ecuador (4th)

Playoff: Uruguay (5th)

Argentina qualified last month, and Colombia joined them after a 3-3 draw against Chile in their second-to-last match. Chile qualified with a win over Ecuador, who also qualified on goal difference over Uruguay. It has to be a huge disappointment for Uruguay not to automatically qualify, but their performances are improving and they get an easy matchup with Jordan in the playoffs. Uruguay will be in next year’s tournament, and I see them as one of maybe two or three sides that could eliminate hosts Brazil.

OFC

Playoff: New Zealand (1st)

New Zealand qualified for the playoff last March with a win over New Caledonia. New Zealand have made significant strides over the past decade, and they qualified for the last World Cup through the playoffs. This time around, they play Mexico instead of Bahrain, which is clearly a tougher task. I expect the tie to be closer than perhaps any other time in history, as Mexico are struggling to find any positive results, and New Zealand are well-rested and their domestic league, where most of their internationals play, is improving. It would still be quite the upset, but New Zealand should be able to hang around the Mexicans.

UEFA

Qualified: Belgium (Group A), Italy (Group B), Germany (Group C), Netherlands (Group D), Switzerland (Group E), Russia (Group F), Bosnia & Herzegovina (Group G), England (Group H), Spain (Group I)

Playoffs: Croatia (Group A), Sweden (Group C), Romania (Group D), Iceland (Group E), Portugal (Group F), Greece (Group G), Ukraine (Group H), France (Group I) (Note: Denmark did not qualify despite finishing second in Group B. They had the worst record among second-placed teams when discounting games against the group’s sixth-place opponent.)

Russia reached the World Cup finals automatically despite being drawn from Pot 2, while Belgium, Switzerland and Bosnia came from even further down, having been drawn from Pot 3. Overall there aren’t too many shocks up there – I expected the Swiss to win Group E, Portugal always choke in qualifying and Russia took advantage, Bosnia’s only real competition in Group G was Greece, and Belgium have one of the best young teams in the world. The most striking country still left has to be Iceland, who were drawn from Pot 6 – the worst pot in UEFA. Ranked a lowly 121 when the pots were drawn, Iceland are now a two-game aggregate tie away from one of the most improbable trips to Brazil. They would be the smallest country in history to qualify if they progress. There aren’t too many household names on the team, one of the noticeable being Tottenham’s Gylfi Sigurdsson. They had some missteps, including giving Cyprus their only win, but secured seventeen points from their ten games. Congrats to Iceland on their achievements.

Norway again top the list of disappointments, as they failed to take advantage of what was by far the softest group in qualifying, Group E. The Norwegians didn’t deserve to be in Pot 1 anyway, but they were brutal in a group that gave them their best chance to qualify for a major tournament in perhaps their entire history. Turkey was also among the underachievers, falling three points short of the playoffs and finishing behind Romania and Hungary. The Turks have been a big disappointment since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008.

The playoffs are as follows (home team for first game is listed first):

Portugal vs Sweden

Ukraine vs France

Greece vs Romania

Iceland vs Croatia

I would expect to see Portugal, France, Greece, and Croatia in next year's World Cup. Iceland got the draw that gives them the best chance, as an out-of-form and coachless Croatia limp into the playoffs. Greece face Romania in a tie that will likely feature two or three goals between the two games. Ukraine got the unlucky draw by playing France, but it will be very tight. Ukraine are an underrated side because of their youth. One of Ronaldo or Zlatan will miss out on Brazil and you have to feel for Zlatan - his supporting cast isn't nearly as good. Portugal have advanced through the playoffs twice in a row and should be able to do so again.