The first legs were fairly predictable - Milan pulled a huge upset in knocking off Barcelona, but the other results were foreseeable. I'd like to apologize for my analysis of that tie - I forgot that Mario Balotelli is cup-tied and therefore unable to play in the Champions League for Milan. Without him, I would have given Milan even less of a chance, but they were spectacular at the San Siro and deserve their lead.
Some quick notes on the first leg of each tie:
Galatasaray 1-1 Schalke: The game was pretty even as expected - both sides had their chances to win it in the second half, but both seemed content with the draw. Schalke will be the happier side as they have the edge going home, but this is still up for grabs. Gala played well on the continent in the group stage, winning two and losing one at Manchester United (which was a close game). Schalke are favorites to go through but they are still an out-of-form side, and Galatasaray have the weapons to make them pay. Should be another tight one in Gelsenkirchen.
Celtic 0-3 Juventus: Eventually Cinderella must fall, and Celtic did so emphatically as Juve calmly swept aside the Bhoys in Glasgow. It was a ruthless performance from Juventus, hitting Celtic on the counter while absorbing loads of pressure in the beginning of the second half. You can argue that if Efe Ambrose plants his header into the back of Buffon's net rather than into his arms, the match ends differently - but the team going through would still be the same. Juve are the better team by a solid margin and will ease through during the second leg.
Arsenal 1-3 Bayern Munich: Not too much of a surprise here. Arsenal have been poor this season and Bayern's impressive Bundesliga record reflected directly onto this result. The Germans dominated the game for all but about twenty minutes, and the one goal they conceded was the result of a defensive mix-up. Arsenal were poor all over the field, failing to close down attackers or build on their passing game. It will be all Bayern in Munich, and if Wenger gets his tactics wrong, this could end up being ugly.
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 Borussia Dortmund: The number of goals was a bit shocking but the result was not - Shakhtar are very tough to beat in Donetsk and could have won this game if not for the late header from Hummels. With the two away goals and the stronger side, Dortmund should be headed through, but Shakhtar are very strong, even without Willian. I almost wish this tie had come up later in the competition, because these two teams have the quality to go into the deeper rounds. But only one can reach the quarters, and that should be Dortmund.
AC Milan 2-0 Barcelona: The shocker for the round goes to Milan, as they dismantled a Barcelona unit dubbed the best in the world by many (including myself). This was no smash-and-grab; Milan defended superbly and rarely gave Barca any space, while they were able to take their chances on the counter against that vulnerable back line. Barcelona's back line is their clearest weak link, but because they hold possession so well, few teams are able to expose it. Allegri played the game perfectly and with a bit of fortune and clinical finishing, Milan have a great chance to go through. This tie is far from over - Barcelona can score two goals back in no time - but they will certainly be nervous if the first half ends 0-0 (see Inter: 2010). I am still going to back Barcelona to go through but if Milan can nick another goal on the counter, it will be very difficult.
Real Madrid 1-1 Manchester United: The game went as expected, but the result did not reflect the game's flow. Madrid dominated most of the game while both sides had chances, and Real face an uphill climb heading to Manchester. Madrid have had problems getting results all year, and this was another case-and-point display - they give up a silly goal on a set piece, looked very rickety at the back, while routinely fashioning chances to score when in the attacking third. This tie sets up nicely because there could have been more goals from both sides in Spain, and neither team really sets up to defend. The second leg should be as dramatic as the first.
Valencia 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain: Pretty routine for the French side, although they did offer Valencia a glimmer of hope in conceding the late goal. What Zlatan was doing only Zlatan knows, as he will play no part in the second leg after his senseless sending off. PSG are still in prime position and are unlikely to unravel at home, but an early goal could change that. Still believe the Parisians will be heading through here.
FC Porto 1-0 Malaga: There are defensive games that excite viewers because of the tactics applied to the game, and there are defensive games that are boring. This one was of the latter denomination. Malaga set up to defend and did so, and did so well barring the one error that allowed Joao Moutinho to score the critical opener in this tie. This one is still in the balance but that was a huge goal for Porto, and one that could carry them through. Malaga have played much more attacking football at home than away so the second leg should be much more exciting than the first. Stay tuned.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Tuesday, February 12, 2013
2012-13 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 - Preview
The Champions League is one of the few sporting events I can maintain full attention on despite my team being eliminated. This is where it really gets fun. After the group stage, group winners are drawn against group runners-up, and the two sides play two games, one home game apiece. The aggregate winner goes through to the next round, and if there is a tie, away goals and then a shootout determines the winner.
This is typically the last round where you see less-heralded clubs still alive, although this year all of the clubs are fairly recognizable names. There will be some lopsided scores, but typically the ties are close - last year five of the eight ties were decided by a goal or less. Expect the same this year - the "minnows" are Turkish powerhouse Galatasaray and Scottish giants Celtic, versus last year's Cypriot cinderella APOEL and Swiss champs Basel. Those sides are weaker than Galatasaray and Celtic, yet both pulled off 1-0 wins at home last year, so this year is all set up to be extremely tight.
Note: This preview is for the whole aggregate, not just the first leg. The team listed first is playing the first leg at home.
GALATASARAY v SCHALKE
How GALATASARAY wins: Galatasaray showcase the form that has taken them top of the Super Lig and overpower an out-of-form Schalke. New signings Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba provide crucial experience and creativity that boost the level of the whole side. Yilmaz keeps up his scoring touch and helps send the Turks through with a couple of well-taken goals.
How SCHALKE wins: The Germans use their class to overcome their lack of form and knockout Galatasaray as Schalke's front three are a constant threat. They shrug off their disastrous domestic season and clear their minds against European opposition, returning to the form that made them so tough last year. The signing of Michel Bastos boosts the attack of an already potent side and opportunities are plentiful for Schalke.
Key players: FW Burak Yilmaz (Galatasaray), FW Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (Schalke)
As joint-leading scorer in the competition, Yilmaz will be expected to provide the finishing touch for the Turks. His two goals at the weekend show his form this season and he is facing the fifth-worst defense in Germany. His influence will be key to Galatasaray's attack, as it is unknown what role Drogba will play at this point. Huntelaar is the opposing marksman, but his strong goalscoring record last season has not continued. He hasn't scored for Schalke since the end of November and his slump has coincided with Schalke's troubles. Huntelaar will need to return to his best for his side to have hopes of going through.
Who will advance: Galatasaray. Galatasaray's transfer moves have shown their ambition to succeed on the continent, but this was a good team to begin with. The added experience may or may not help, but neither Drogba are Sneijder are the personality type that could ruin a locker room, so these moves are unlikely to hurt. Schalke are enduring an awful run of results, and are currently at a troubling tenth place in the league. Lewis Holtby left early for Tottenham and now Huntelaar has an eye problem, so we are looking at a weaker, out-of-form squad than last year's third-place Bundesliga side. The first-place finish in Group B would seem to suggest that Schalke can put their domestic troubles aside, but things have gone worse as the season continues. I'm not convinced that Galatasaray have enough talent as a whole to make a deep run this year, but out-of-form Schalke looks ripe for the picking.
Prediction: Galatasaray 4-2 Schalke
CELTIC v JUVENTUS
How CELTIC wins: Celtic plays with the same coolness and discipline they displayed against Barcelona in the group stage, limiting Juventus to attempts from distance. They steal a victory in front of a raucous crowd at Celtic Park and hang on in Italy to stun the defending Serie A champs. With the SPL all but locked up and without the threat of Rangers, the Hoops can focus their best efforts into making a run in Europe, and their fresher players take the game to a tired Juve side mired in a close domestic race with Napoli.
How JUVENTUS wins: The Old Lady come to Scotland and show off their superior quality, controlling the game and dominating possession. They shrug off the tough atmosphere in the first leg and play at the tempo that led them to an undefeated league season last year. Juve take their chances and avoid being frustrated by a side that will set up to defend. As favorites, the Italians quickly dash thoughts of another upset and cruise through to the quarterfinals.
Key players: GK Fraser Forster (Celtic), CM Andrea Pirlo (Juventus)
Forster was superb in the group stage and he will be put to the test again by Juve, likely early and often. To pull the upset, it is always important for the goalkeeper to be in top form, and Forster will be relied upon to keep Juve off of the board and keep his side in the tie as long as possible. On the other side, Pirlo will be pulling the strings behind Juventus's attack, and as one of the top creative midfielders in the world, he will be quite the challenge to Celtic's defense. Expect Juve's chance creation (and conversion) to be heavily correlated to Pirlo's play.
Who will advance: Juventus. Celtic's run has been a fairy tale story, as the Scottish champions went toe-to-toe with Barcelona and grabbed the second qualifying spot in Group G. Scottish football was in peril after the collapse of Rangers and Celtic have certainly done well to represent their country in this competition. We rarely see the minnows of the competition get past this round, and while Celtic are no minnows in Scotland, they are on the continental stage with a seasoned Juventus side as their opponents. It is difficult to see them going through. Juve should not overlook the Scots because they would be made to pay, but they are the stronger side by a good margin and should find themselves in the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Juventus 4-2 Celtic
ARSENAL v BAYERN MUNICH
How ARSENAL wins: The Gunners use their spectacular European home record to take a lead to Germany where they avoid another away capitulation and hold off Bayern. Walcott, Giroud and Podolski take their chances and Arsenal's possession play unsettles Bayern, who are sitting high above the Bundesliga and have not faced many tough tests. The patched up defense holds up enough to keep them in it but their superior attacking play ultimately takes them through.
How BAYERN MUNICH wins: Bayern uses their attacking threats to crush Arsenal's leaky defense. Their defensive unit, which has conceded just seven goals in twenty-one league games, keeps out a Gunners side already searching for goals a bit lately. Bayern use their experience and feed from the disappointment of last year's defeat to catapult them into the last eight.
Key players: FW Theo Walcott (Arsenal), FW Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich)
Walcott is Arsenal's most important player and we don't even know where he will play yet - he could be in the center forward position or out on the wing with Giroud in the middle. Walcott has been inconsistent for Arsenal but has improved this season, especially when placed in a further forward attacking position. He needs to put away his chances for Arsenal to go through. Muller has been a key player in Bayern's side for a few years now, and he will be troublesome for Arsenal's defense. Bayern will look to get Muller and Gomez in behind the center backs, while both players are also aerial threats. Muller's attacking play will be hard to stop.
Who will advance: Bayern Munich. These two huge clubs are at different points right now - Arsenal are in a bit of a transition and are fighting to qualify for this competition next year, while Bayern were in the final last year and hold a huge lead in the Bundesliga. Bayern have been in the final in two of the past three years (lost both) and after last year's huge disappointment in the final, they will be dying to avenge their defeat. Arsenal have been improving, but they face a huge problem in defense as Monreal is cup-tied and Kieran Gibbs is still injured. That leaves moving Thomas Vermaelen to left-back, which is not his optimal position, or playing the heavily-criticized Andre Santos, which is hopefully not in Wenger's plans. He thankfully is not, as he was sent to Gremio on loan. Either way, it's a back four that is unprepared to deal with the attacking prowess of this Bayern side. There are threats all over the field and I don't see Arsenal being able to keep up during a two-legged tie.
Prediction: Bayern 6-3 Arsenal
SHAKHTAR DONETSK v BORUSSIA DORTMUND
How SHAKHTAR DONETSK wins: Shakhtar's dominant domestic form carries over to the Champions League. The Ukrainians show how they made it out of a tough group by putting constant pressure on Dortmund in Donetsk and they hold on with another solid away performance in the second leg. Their defense does not allow Dortmund's creative players any space in the attacking third and limit giveaways from the back.
How BORUSSIA DORTMUND wins: As perhaps the best team in the tournament so far, Dortmund prove their remaining doubters wrong by shrugging off a rugged Shakhtar side. Gotze, Lewandowski and Reus are brilliant in attack and provide a constant threat both through the middle and down the wings.Their large deficit to Bayern in the Bundesliga allows them to keep the lineup fresh for European games and display their best football.
Key players: FW Luiz Adriano (Shakhtar Donetsk), FW Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund)
Adriano will be relied upon more after Willian, who led the team in scoring in the Champions League, left for Russia. Adriano is a talented forward and has the pace and power to danger Dortmund's goal. The Germans have a number of important attackers, but Reus may be the best - his addition to the team was a large factor in their first-place finish in Group D. He is pacy and can pick out passes for his superb teammates on the front line. Shakhtar will have to deny Reus space to maneuever if they are to keep Dortmund at bay.
Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund. Shakhtar may not be a household name everywhere in Europe, but this is a very, very strong team. They have won seventeen of eighteen games domestically and came very close to winning a group containing the Italian, English and Danish champions. However, they sold Willian to Anzhi in January, and his loss will be felt in this tie. They are no longer as potent up top and do not pose as much of a threat to Dortmund as they did to Juve and Chelsea. His absence will not only be felt in the attacking third, but in defense, as Dortmund will spend more time with the ball than they would have before. Shakhtar are not a one-man show, but Dortmund will exploit their new weakness. The Germans have proven to be a top side and now have the big game experience to go through. Expect to see Dortmund in the last eight, but it won't be easy.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Shakhtar Donetsk
AC MILAN v BARCELONA
How AC MILAN wins: The attacking players find space against Barca's occasionally shaky back line, take their chances and constantly pressure the Spaniards. Barcelona miss a number of easier scoring chances and Milan make them pay at the other end. Allegri sets them up to counter attack and the team is clinical when given any glimmer of light.
How BARCELONA wins: The best team in the world plays their game - the Catalans control possession, the chances, and the scoreline while knocking out Milan for the second year in a row. Barca limit counter attacking opportunities and hold the ball enough to frustrate Milan's myriad of attacking players. The defense limits mistakes and does not allow any space in midfield, suffocating their opponents in typical fashion.
Key players: FW Mario Balotelli (AC Milan), FW Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
You never truly know which Balotelli you will get on a game-to-game (or day-to-day) basis. It is indisputable that when he is in the mood, he is one of the top strikers on the continent and has the ability to create a goal out of nothing. But as easily as Milan could get a spectacular goal, they could get a red card - Mario's temperament is always an issue and could be a deciding factor. We all know Messi is Barcelona's star and his goal scoring record is superb in Europe. Against tougher opposition, Barcelona struggle without Messi's goals, as his career-long barren spell against Chelsea cost them dearly last year. Messi should find space against this back line and if he displays his normal ability, Barca should find themselves going through.
Who will advance: Barcelona. Barcelona are the most dominant team in the world right now and it would be foolish to think they would trip at this hurdle. It is not an impossible task for Milan but their weakness over the course of the season has broadcast the lack of depth in their squad after last summer's departures. Milan had a better team last year and were still beaten without too much trouble, so while you cannot completely rule them out because of the individual star power, it is difficult to see them going through. Couple that with the killer form Barca has been in this year, and all signs point to another early exit for the Italians.
Prediction: Barcelona 6-2 AC Milan
REAL MADRID v MANCHESTER UNITED
How REAL MADRID wins: Real's superior midfield takes over the tie, breaking up United's link up play and holding large periods of possession. Ozil and Ronaldo dominate the attacking third, creating chances and scoring goals against United's gaping back four. Varane continues his strong form and helps pacify any defensive concerns for Jose Mourinho.
How MANCHESTER UNITED wins: United's attacking threats control the chances and take advantage of mistakes from Real's midfield. Rooney and Van Persie run rampant up top and keep the pressure off of the back four and nervy goalie situation. The midfield does just enough to allow the attackers to counter and goals are coming from everyone in the side.
Key players: GK Diego Lopez (Real Madrid), FW Robin Van Persie (Manchester United)
Iker Casillas will miss the tie due to injury so Real were able to sign Diego Lopez as an emergency replacement. Lopez is a formidable replacement, but does not have near the class of Casillas. Even though Casillas has been at less than his best this year, there will be a huge spotlight on Real's goal, and any goalkeeping error from either side could be especially costly. Van Persie is United's marksman, and his stellar form from last year has showed no signs of stopping since moving to Manchester. We all know how he can finish, and for United to go through, he will have to be on top of his game.
Who will advance: Real Madrid. I simply don't believe that United's defense can keep Real under five goals in two games. This will be a very tense tie, especially considering the big name matchup, and is probably the hardest to call of the eight. The injury to Casillas adds an extra wrinkle as United will need to score, and without their world class goalie, Real are weaker at the back than prior years. United are stronger up front with Van Persie, but Group H was so weak that I can't even give too much merit to their improved European performance this year. Fergie's boys have been weak against Spanish opposition - they were completely outplayed in two Champions League finals against Barcelona, and were crushed in the Europa League last year by Athletic Bilbao. The speedier Spanish midfield play gives English teams trouble, and despite Madrid being undermanned and not on top form, they have the edge.
Prediction: Real Madrid 5-4 Manchester United
VALENCIA v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN
How VALENCIA wins: Valencia immediately put the pressure on PSG and force their opponents to chase the tie from its beginning. They take advantage of mistakes from their opponents as Soldado and Jonas link up to create good opportunities on the counter. Their attacking play pins PSG back and their opponents succumb to the high expectations surrounding their summer spending spree.
How PSG wins: A team that has still showed occasional signs of a lack of chemistry has everything start to click. PSG have a more talented side and if the players continue the form that took them to the top of Ligue 1, their class should take them through. Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi terrorize an average Valencia back line while France's best defensive side holds off attacks with ease.
Key players: FW Roberto Soldado (Valencia), FW Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Paris Saint-Germain)
Soldado has been the brightest spot for a down Valencia team and it will be up to him to finish when they are able to attack. An experienced player who has been capped internationally six times, Soldado will be a threat, especially early in the first leg as Valencia look to jump in front at home. Zlatan is one of the best strikers in the world, if not the best - his skills are unlike anyone on the earth. He has twenty goals in twenty league games for PSG this season, fitting seamlessly into his new side. Valencia will be hard-pressed to keep him from netting at least two goals over the tie.
Who will advance: Paris Saint-Germain. PSG's spending spree this summer was not a waste - the side are top of the league and the parts are starting to fit together. It is hard for a team to gel together quickly, so expectations on this team should be tempered. But signs are good for this team to make a deep run if they can keep all of their men on the field (five red cards already this season in Ligue 1). Valencia have played well in Europe despite poor domestic form, but this team does not have enough experience to knock off PSG. Valencia are traditionally tough at home and this tie will not be a breeze for PSG, but expect the French club to go through with little drama.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 Valencia
FC PORTO v MALAGA
How PORTO wins: Porto's substantial home advantage shows against inexperienced Malaga. Martinez, who has been a seamless replacement for Hulk having scored nineteen goals in eighteen league games, continues to score when he wants. Porto build up an advantage at home and make it difficult for Malaga to build momentum in the tie.
How MALAGA wins: The club could be the biggest surprise in the knockout round and as group winners, they continue to impress. La Liga's best defensive team clamps down on Porto, who have continually lost their attacking players to other clubs in recent years. Their strong away record sets them up well to win the tie in Spain and continue to the quarters.
Key players: FW Jackson Martinez (FC Porto), MF Isco (Malaga)
Martinez has stepped into the side after Hulk's move to Zenit and has shown no sign of relinquishing his place. He has a great record in the league but has not been as consistent in Europe. It will be up to him to break down one of Europe's toughest defenses. After signing a new contract with Malaga, Isco has continued to produce the type of displays that earned him interest from other clubs. His brace at the weekend took Malaga to another win, so he will be a key figure during both legs.
Who will advance: FC Porto. This is the other tie where I can't name the favorite - both sides are playing well but are comparatively under the radar. Malaga's biggest talking point has been their debt rather than their play, and Porto have been lacking in star power since Hulk and Axel Witsel moved to Zenit this summer. Porto always seem to reload seamlessly, and this year is no different - they recorded thirteen points in Group A and are joint-top in the Portuguese league with Benfica. Malaga have done very well to get to this point, but the loss of Nacho Monreal could be crucial in this tie. It will be tight, there will not be many chances, but Porto look a little better at the moment and may just barely squeak through.
Prediction: FC Porto 2-1 Malaga
This is typically the last round where you see less-heralded clubs still alive, although this year all of the clubs are fairly recognizable names. There will be some lopsided scores, but typically the ties are close - last year five of the eight ties were decided by a goal or less. Expect the same this year - the "minnows" are Turkish powerhouse Galatasaray and Scottish giants Celtic, versus last year's Cypriot cinderella APOEL and Swiss champs Basel. Those sides are weaker than Galatasaray and Celtic, yet both pulled off 1-0 wins at home last year, so this year is all set up to be extremely tight.
Note: This preview is for the whole aggregate, not just the first leg. The team listed first is playing the first leg at home.
GALATASARAY v SCHALKE
How GALATASARAY wins: Galatasaray showcase the form that has taken them top of the Super Lig and overpower an out-of-form Schalke. New signings Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba provide crucial experience and creativity that boost the level of the whole side. Yilmaz keeps up his scoring touch and helps send the Turks through with a couple of well-taken goals.
How SCHALKE wins: The Germans use their class to overcome their lack of form and knockout Galatasaray as Schalke's front three are a constant threat. They shrug off their disastrous domestic season and clear their minds against European opposition, returning to the form that made them so tough last year. The signing of Michel Bastos boosts the attack of an already potent side and opportunities are plentiful for Schalke.
Key players: FW Burak Yilmaz (Galatasaray), FW Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (Schalke)
As joint-leading scorer in the competition, Yilmaz will be expected to provide the finishing touch for the Turks. His two goals at the weekend show his form this season and he is facing the fifth-worst defense in Germany. His influence will be key to Galatasaray's attack, as it is unknown what role Drogba will play at this point. Huntelaar is the opposing marksman, but his strong goalscoring record last season has not continued. He hasn't scored for Schalke since the end of November and his slump has coincided with Schalke's troubles. Huntelaar will need to return to his best for his side to have hopes of going through.
Who will advance: Galatasaray. Galatasaray's transfer moves have shown their ambition to succeed on the continent, but this was a good team to begin with. The added experience may or may not help, but neither Drogba are Sneijder are the personality type that could ruin a locker room, so these moves are unlikely to hurt. Schalke are enduring an awful run of results, and are currently at a troubling tenth place in the league. Lewis Holtby left early for Tottenham and now Huntelaar has an eye problem, so we are looking at a weaker, out-of-form squad than last year's third-place Bundesliga side. The first-place finish in Group B would seem to suggest that Schalke can put their domestic troubles aside, but things have gone worse as the season continues. I'm not convinced that Galatasaray have enough talent as a whole to make a deep run this year, but out-of-form Schalke looks ripe for the picking.
Prediction: Galatasaray 4-2 Schalke
CELTIC v JUVENTUS
How CELTIC wins: Celtic plays with the same coolness and discipline they displayed against Barcelona in the group stage, limiting Juventus to attempts from distance. They steal a victory in front of a raucous crowd at Celtic Park and hang on in Italy to stun the defending Serie A champs. With the SPL all but locked up and without the threat of Rangers, the Hoops can focus their best efforts into making a run in Europe, and their fresher players take the game to a tired Juve side mired in a close domestic race with Napoli.
How JUVENTUS wins: The Old Lady come to Scotland and show off their superior quality, controlling the game and dominating possession. They shrug off the tough atmosphere in the first leg and play at the tempo that led them to an undefeated league season last year. Juve take their chances and avoid being frustrated by a side that will set up to defend. As favorites, the Italians quickly dash thoughts of another upset and cruise through to the quarterfinals.
Key players: GK Fraser Forster (Celtic), CM Andrea Pirlo (Juventus)
Forster was superb in the group stage and he will be put to the test again by Juve, likely early and often. To pull the upset, it is always important for the goalkeeper to be in top form, and Forster will be relied upon to keep Juve off of the board and keep his side in the tie as long as possible. On the other side, Pirlo will be pulling the strings behind Juventus's attack, and as one of the top creative midfielders in the world, he will be quite the challenge to Celtic's defense. Expect Juve's chance creation (and conversion) to be heavily correlated to Pirlo's play.
Who will advance: Juventus. Celtic's run has been a fairy tale story, as the Scottish champions went toe-to-toe with Barcelona and grabbed the second qualifying spot in Group G. Scottish football was in peril after the collapse of Rangers and Celtic have certainly done well to represent their country in this competition. We rarely see the minnows of the competition get past this round, and while Celtic are no minnows in Scotland, they are on the continental stage with a seasoned Juventus side as their opponents. It is difficult to see them going through. Juve should not overlook the Scots because they would be made to pay, but they are the stronger side by a good margin and should find themselves in the quarterfinals.
Prediction: Juventus 4-2 Celtic
ARSENAL v BAYERN MUNICH
How ARSENAL wins: The Gunners use their spectacular European home record to take a lead to Germany where they avoid another away capitulation and hold off Bayern. Walcott, Giroud and Podolski take their chances and Arsenal's possession play unsettles Bayern, who are sitting high above the Bundesliga and have not faced many tough tests. The patched up defense holds up enough to keep them in it but their superior attacking play ultimately takes them through.
How BAYERN MUNICH wins: Bayern uses their attacking threats to crush Arsenal's leaky defense. Their defensive unit, which has conceded just seven goals in twenty-one league games, keeps out a Gunners side already searching for goals a bit lately. Bayern use their experience and feed from the disappointment of last year's defeat to catapult them into the last eight.
Key players: FW Theo Walcott (Arsenal), FW Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich)
Walcott is Arsenal's most important player and we don't even know where he will play yet - he could be in the center forward position or out on the wing with Giroud in the middle. Walcott has been inconsistent for Arsenal but has improved this season, especially when placed in a further forward attacking position. He needs to put away his chances for Arsenal to go through. Muller has been a key player in Bayern's side for a few years now, and he will be troublesome for Arsenal's defense. Bayern will look to get Muller and Gomez in behind the center backs, while both players are also aerial threats. Muller's attacking play will be hard to stop.
Who will advance: Bayern Munich. These two huge clubs are at different points right now - Arsenal are in a bit of a transition and are fighting to qualify for this competition next year, while Bayern were in the final last year and hold a huge lead in the Bundesliga. Bayern have been in the final in two of the past three years (lost both) and after last year's huge disappointment in the final, they will be dying to avenge their defeat. Arsenal have been improving, but they face a huge problem in defense as Monreal is cup-tied and Kieran Gibbs is still injured. That leaves moving Thomas Vermaelen to left-back, which is not his optimal position, or playing the heavily-criticized Andre Santos, which is hopefully not in Wenger's plans. He thankfully is not, as he was sent to Gremio on loan. Either way, it's a back four that is unprepared to deal with the attacking prowess of this Bayern side. There are threats all over the field and I don't see Arsenal being able to keep up during a two-legged tie.
Prediction: Bayern 6-3 Arsenal
SHAKHTAR DONETSK v BORUSSIA DORTMUND
How SHAKHTAR DONETSK wins: Shakhtar's dominant domestic form carries over to the Champions League. The Ukrainians show how they made it out of a tough group by putting constant pressure on Dortmund in Donetsk and they hold on with another solid away performance in the second leg. Their defense does not allow Dortmund's creative players any space in the attacking third and limit giveaways from the back.
How BORUSSIA DORTMUND wins: As perhaps the best team in the tournament so far, Dortmund prove their remaining doubters wrong by shrugging off a rugged Shakhtar side. Gotze, Lewandowski and Reus are brilliant in attack and provide a constant threat both through the middle and down the wings.Their large deficit to Bayern in the Bundesliga allows them to keep the lineup fresh for European games and display their best football.
Key players: FW Luiz Adriano (Shakhtar Donetsk), FW Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund)
Adriano will be relied upon more after Willian, who led the team in scoring in the Champions League, left for Russia. Adriano is a talented forward and has the pace and power to danger Dortmund's goal. The Germans have a number of important attackers, but Reus may be the best - his addition to the team was a large factor in their first-place finish in Group D. He is pacy and can pick out passes for his superb teammates on the front line. Shakhtar will have to deny Reus space to maneuever if they are to keep Dortmund at bay.
Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund. Shakhtar may not be a household name everywhere in Europe, but this is a very, very strong team. They have won seventeen of eighteen games domestically and came very close to winning a group containing the Italian, English and Danish champions. However, they sold Willian to Anzhi in January, and his loss will be felt in this tie. They are no longer as potent up top and do not pose as much of a threat to Dortmund as they did to Juve and Chelsea. His absence will not only be felt in the attacking third, but in defense, as Dortmund will spend more time with the ball than they would have before. Shakhtar are not a one-man show, but Dortmund will exploit their new weakness. The Germans have proven to be a top side and now have the big game experience to go through. Expect to see Dortmund in the last eight, but it won't be easy.
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Shakhtar Donetsk
AC MILAN v BARCELONA
How AC MILAN wins: The attacking players find space against Barca's occasionally shaky back line, take their chances and constantly pressure the Spaniards. Barcelona miss a number of easier scoring chances and Milan make them pay at the other end. Allegri sets them up to counter attack and the team is clinical when given any glimmer of light.
How BARCELONA wins: The best team in the world plays their game - the Catalans control possession, the chances, and the scoreline while knocking out Milan for the second year in a row. Barca limit counter attacking opportunities and hold the ball enough to frustrate Milan's myriad of attacking players. The defense limits mistakes and does not allow any space in midfield, suffocating their opponents in typical fashion.
Key players: FW Mario Balotelli (AC Milan), FW Lionel Messi (Barcelona)
You never truly know which Balotelli you will get on a game-to-game (or day-to-day) basis. It is indisputable that when he is in the mood, he is one of the top strikers on the continent and has the ability to create a goal out of nothing. But as easily as Milan could get a spectacular goal, they could get a red card - Mario's temperament is always an issue and could be a deciding factor. We all know Messi is Barcelona's star and his goal scoring record is superb in Europe. Against tougher opposition, Barcelona struggle without Messi's goals, as his career-long barren spell against Chelsea cost them dearly last year. Messi should find space against this back line and if he displays his normal ability, Barca should find themselves going through.
Who will advance: Barcelona. Barcelona are the most dominant team in the world right now and it would be foolish to think they would trip at this hurdle. It is not an impossible task for Milan but their weakness over the course of the season has broadcast the lack of depth in their squad after last summer's departures. Milan had a better team last year and were still beaten without too much trouble, so while you cannot completely rule them out because of the individual star power, it is difficult to see them going through. Couple that with the killer form Barca has been in this year, and all signs point to another early exit for the Italians.
Prediction: Barcelona 6-2 AC Milan
REAL MADRID v MANCHESTER UNITED
How REAL MADRID wins: Real's superior midfield takes over the tie, breaking up United's link up play and holding large periods of possession. Ozil and Ronaldo dominate the attacking third, creating chances and scoring goals against United's gaping back four. Varane continues his strong form and helps pacify any defensive concerns for Jose Mourinho.
How MANCHESTER UNITED wins: United's attacking threats control the chances and take advantage of mistakes from Real's midfield. Rooney and Van Persie run rampant up top and keep the pressure off of the back four and nervy goalie situation. The midfield does just enough to allow the attackers to counter and goals are coming from everyone in the side.
Key players: GK Diego Lopez (Real Madrid), FW Robin Van Persie (Manchester United)
Iker Casillas will miss the tie due to injury so Real were able to sign Diego Lopez as an emergency replacement. Lopez is a formidable replacement, but does not have near the class of Casillas. Even though Casillas has been at less than his best this year, there will be a huge spotlight on Real's goal, and any goalkeeping error from either side could be especially costly. Van Persie is United's marksman, and his stellar form from last year has showed no signs of stopping since moving to Manchester. We all know how he can finish, and for United to go through, he will have to be on top of his game.
Who will advance: Real Madrid. I simply don't believe that United's defense can keep Real under five goals in two games. This will be a very tense tie, especially considering the big name matchup, and is probably the hardest to call of the eight. The injury to Casillas adds an extra wrinkle as United will need to score, and without their world class goalie, Real are weaker at the back than prior years. United are stronger up front with Van Persie, but Group H was so weak that I can't even give too much merit to their improved European performance this year. Fergie's boys have been weak against Spanish opposition - they were completely outplayed in two Champions League finals against Barcelona, and were crushed in the Europa League last year by Athletic Bilbao. The speedier Spanish midfield play gives English teams trouble, and despite Madrid being undermanned and not on top form, they have the edge.
Prediction: Real Madrid 5-4 Manchester United
VALENCIA v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN
How VALENCIA wins: Valencia immediately put the pressure on PSG and force their opponents to chase the tie from its beginning. They take advantage of mistakes from their opponents as Soldado and Jonas link up to create good opportunities on the counter. Their attacking play pins PSG back and their opponents succumb to the high expectations surrounding their summer spending spree.
How PSG wins: A team that has still showed occasional signs of a lack of chemistry has everything start to click. PSG have a more talented side and if the players continue the form that took them to the top of Ligue 1, their class should take them through. Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi terrorize an average Valencia back line while France's best defensive side holds off attacks with ease.
Key players: FW Roberto Soldado (Valencia), FW Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Paris Saint-Germain)
Soldado has been the brightest spot for a down Valencia team and it will be up to him to finish when they are able to attack. An experienced player who has been capped internationally six times, Soldado will be a threat, especially early in the first leg as Valencia look to jump in front at home. Zlatan is one of the best strikers in the world, if not the best - his skills are unlike anyone on the earth. He has twenty goals in twenty league games for PSG this season, fitting seamlessly into his new side. Valencia will be hard-pressed to keep him from netting at least two goals over the tie.
Who will advance: Paris Saint-Germain. PSG's spending spree this summer was not a waste - the side are top of the league and the parts are starting to fit together. It is hard for a team to gel together quickly, so expectations on this team should be tempered. But signs are good for this team to make a deep run if they can keep all of their men on the field (five red cards already this season in Ligue 1). Valencia have played well in Europe despite poor domestic form, but this team does not have enough experience to knock off PSG. Valencia are traditionally tough at home and this tie will not be a breeze for PSG, but expect the French club to go through with little drama.
Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 Valencia
FC PORTO v MALAGA
How PORTO wins: Porto's substantial home advantage shows against inexperienced Malaga. Martinez, who has been a seamless replacement for Hulk having scored nineteen goals in eighteen league games, continues to score when he wants. Porto build up an advantage at home and make it difficult for Malaga to build momentum in the tie.
How MALAGA wins: The club could be the biggest surprise in the knockout round and as group winners, they continue to impress. La Liga's best defensive team clamps down on Porto, who have continually lost their attacking players to other clubs in recent years. Their strong away record sets them up well to win the tie in Spain and continue to the quarters.
Key players: FW Jackson Martinez (FC Porto), MF Isco (Malaga)
Martinez has stepped into the side after Hulk's move to Zenit and has shown no sign of relinquishing his place. He has a great record in the league but has not been as consistent in Europe. It will be up to him to break down one of Europe's toughest defenses. After signing a new contract with Malaga, Isco has continued to produce the type of displays that earned him interest from other clubs. His brace at the weekend took Malaga to another win, so he will be a key figure during both legs.
Who will advance: FC Porto. This is the other tie where I can't name the favorite - both sides are playing well but are comparatively under the radar. Malaga's biggest talking point has been their debt rather than their play, and Porto have been lacking in star power since Hulk and Axel Witsel moved to Zenit this summer. Porto always seem to reload seamlessly, and this year is no different - they recorded thirteen points in Group A and are joint-top in the Portuguese league with Benfica. Malaga have done very well to get to this point, but the loss of Nacho Monreal could be crucial in this tie. It will be tight, there will not be many chances, but Porto look a little better at the moment and may just barely squeak through.
Prediction: FC Porto 2-1 Malaga
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