The first legs were fairly predictable - Milan pulled a huge upset in knocking off Barcelona, but the other results were foreseeable. I'd like to apologize for my analysis of that tie - I forgot that Mario Balotelli is cup-tied and therefore unable to play in the Champions League for Milan. Without him, I would have given Milan even less of a chance, but they were spectacular at the San Siro and deserve their lead.
Some quick notes on the first leg of each tie:
Galatasaray 1-1 Schalke: The game was pretty even as expected - both sides had their chances to win it in the second half, but both seemed content with the draw. Schalke will be the happier side as they have the edge going home, but this is still up for grabs. Gala played well on the continent in the group stage, winning two and losing one at Manchester United (which was a close game). Schalke are favorites to go through but they are still an out-of-form side, and Galatasaray have the weapons to make them pay. Should be another tight one in Gelsenkirchen.
Celtic 0-3 Juventus: Eventually Cinderella must fall, and Celtic did so emphatically as Juve calmly swept aside the Bhoys in Glasgow. It was a ruthless performance from Juventus, hitting Celtic on the counter while absorbing loads of pressure in the beginning of the second half. You can argue that if Efe Ambrose plants his header into the back of Buffon's net rather than into his arms, the match ends differently - but the team going through would still be the same. Juve are the better team by a solid margin and will ease through during the second leg.
Arsenal 1-3 Bayern Munich: Not too much of a surprise here. Arsenal have been poor this season and Bayern's impressive Bundesliga record reflected directly onto this result. The Germans dominated the game for all but about twenty minutes, and the one goal they conceded was the result of a defensive mix-up. Arsenal were poor all over the field, failing to close down attackers or build on their passing game. It will be all Bayern in Munich, and if Wenger gets his tactics wrong, this could end up being ugly.
Shakhtar Donetsk 2-2 Borussia Dortmund: The number of goals was a bit shocking but the result was not - Shakhtar are very tough to beat in Donetsk and could have won this game if not for the late header from Hummels. With the two away goals and the stronger side, Dortmund should be headed through, but Shakhtar are very strong, even without Willian. I almost wish this tie had come up later in the competition, because these two teams have the quality to go into the deeper rounds. But only one can reach the quarters, and that should be Dortmund.
AC Milan 2-0 Barcelona: The shocker for the round goes to Milan, as they dismantled a Barcelona unit dubbed the best in the world by many (including myself). This was no smash-and-grab; Milan defended superbly and rarely gave Barca any space, while they were able to take their chances on the counter against that vulnerable back line. Barcelona's back line is their clearest weak link, but because they hold possession so well, few teams are able to expose it. Allegri played the game perfectly and with a bit of fortune and clinical finishing, Milan have a great chance to go through. This tie is far from over - Barcelona can score two goals back in no time - but they will certainly be nervous if the first half ends 0-0 (see Inter: 2010). I am still going to back Barcelona to go through but if Milan can nick another goal on the counter, it will be very difficult.
Real Madrid 1-1 Manchester United: The game went as expected, but the result did not reflect the game's flow. Madrid dominated most of the game while both sides had chances, and Real face an uphill climb heading to Manchester. Madrid have had problems getting results all year, and this was another case-and-point display - they give up a silly goal on a set piece, looked very rickety at the back, while routinely fashioning chances to score when in the attacking third. This tie sets up nicely because there could have been more goals from both sides in Spain, and neither team really sets up to defend. The second leg should be as dramatic as the first.
Valencia 1-2 Paris Saint-Germain: Pretty routine for the French side, although they did offer Valencia a glimmer of hope in conceding the late goal. What Zlatan was doing only Zlatan knows, as he will play no part in the second leg after his senseless sending off. PSG are still in prime position and are unlikely to unravel at home, but an early goal could change that. Still believe the Parisians will be heading through here.
FC Porto 1-0 Malaga: There are defensive games that excite viewers because of the tactics applied to the game, and there are defensive games that are boring. This one was of the latter denomination. Malaga set up to defend and did so, and did so well barring the one error that allowed Joao Moutinho to score the critical opener in this tie. This one is still in the balance but that was a huge goal for Porto, and one that could carry them through. Malaga have played much more attacking football at home than away so the second leg should be much more exciting than the first. Stay tuned.
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