2013-14 UEFA Champions League - Matchday 1 Preview

Matchday 1 is nearly here and there are a number of enticing matchups on the way. I have highlighted a few games in the past to spotlight and will continue to do so, but I am going to add a few notes on each matchup to provide a basis for my projections. The games that should be especially interesting to watch are identified by the “*” symbols around the team names.

Groups A-D play Tuesday, September 16 and Groups E-H play Wednesday, September 17.

Time	Home		Away	Group	Projection	Venue
2:45 ET	Manchester United	vs	Bayer Leverkusen	A	2-1	Old Trafford
2:45 ET	Real Sociedad	vs	Shakhtar Donetsk	A	2-0	Estadio Anoeta
2:45 ET	FC Copenhagen	vs	Juventus	B	0-2	Parkstadion
2:45 ET	Galatasaray	vs	Real Madrid	B	1-1	Türk Telekom Arena
2:45 ET	Benfica	vs	Anderlecht	C	1-0	Estadio da Luz
2:45 ET	Olympiakos Piraeus	vs	Paris Saint-Germain	C	0-1	Karaiskaki Stadium
2:45 ET	Bayern Munich	vs	CSKA Moscow	D	2-0	Allianz Arena
2:45 ET	Viktoria Plzen	vs	Manchester City	D	1-2	Struncovy Sady Stadion
2:45 ET	Chelsea	vs	FC Basel	E	3-1	Stamford Bridge
2:45 ET	Schalke 04	vs	Steaua Bucuresti	E	2-1	Veltins-Arena
2:45 ET	Olympique Marseille	vs	Arsenal	F	1-2	Stade Vélodrome
2:45 ET	SSC Napoli	vs	Borussia Dortmund	F	2-2	Stadio San Paolo
2:45 ET	AC Milan	vs	Celtic	G	2-1	Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
2:45 ET	FC Barcelona	vs	Ajax Amsterdam	G	4-1	Camp Nou
2:45 ET	Atletico Madrid	vs	Zenit St Petersburg	H	3-2	Vicente Calderon
2:45 ET	Austria Vienna	vs	FC Porto	H	0-4	Generali Arena

Manchester United – Bayer Leverkusen: United face a tougher task in Group A than past years, but should feel comfortable against Bayer. Bayer have not won an away match in the Champions League since 2002, which includes thirteen matches (3 draws, 10 losses). United have not been as dominant at home as they were in the early part of last decade, but Old Trafford is always going to be a tough place to play on a European night. United should start off their campaign with a W.

Real Sociedad – Shakhtar Donetsk: Real haven’t played in the Champions League since 2003-04, their only other appearance. They reached the knockout stage but lost 2-0 on aggregate to Lyon. Shakhtar have reached the knockout stage in two of the past three years, but their road performance has been poor. They have won just two of their last eight road fixtures, those being against APOEL in a meaningless Matchday 6 game and away to Danish side FC Nordsjaelland. I see Sociedad as a sleeper in this tournament and think they will continue their current form with a win at home.

FC Copenhagen – Juventus: Copenhagen have had a very poor start to the season, taking seven tries to win their first fixture in the Danish Superliga. The Danes hadn’t qualified since a run to the round of 16 in 2010-11. Juventus are one of the best sides in the competition and will be strong favorites. However, they did claim just a 1-1 draw in their trip to the Parken Stadium last year against Nordsjaelland. Juve are better now than last year and should take all three points against a Copenhagen side still finding its bearings.

*Galatasaray – Real Madrid*: Galatasaray must be pleased to play Madrid on Day 1. The Turks defeated Madrid and Manchester United at home last season - impressive scalps despite neither opponent needing a win (United had already qualified, Madrid held a 3-0 lead on aggregate). Madrid are off to a bright start in La Liga but are still going to need some time to create chemistry. A host of new signings came into new manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side and key playmaker Mesut Ozil departed for Arsenal.

All of this culminates in a good opportunity for Gala at home. With Didier Drogba and Burak Yilmaz up top, they are always going to be a threat, and Real are still going to be finding their identity with the addition of Gareth Bale. Don’t forget, this is a team that won just two games from six on the road last season – versus Ajax and Manchester United. We know Ajax is a good, but not great team, and the United win is infamous for the questionable red card given to Nani with United leading 1-0. This will be an entertaining game to watch and while Gala don’t have a stellar home record, this is a game they will not want to lose.

Benfica – Anderlecht: Anderlecht were tough on the road last season, drawing games against Milan and Malaga while falling 1-0 to Zenit on a penalty. Benfica were a surprising early exit last year, and have already dropped four points to start their domestic campaign. Don’t expect fireworks in this one. Benfica should win the game but it will be very tight in Lisbon.

Olympiakos – Paris Saint-Germain: PSG are my favorite for this year’s tournament and they begin with a trip to Greece. They were strong on the road last year, winning three, drawing Barcelona, and losing 1-0 to Porto. Olympiakos have dropped their first home game each of their past two campaigns but have been historically tough at home.

I would have placed stars around this game because of the interesting matchup but I don’t think the game itself will be too pulsating. The matchup is amusing as PSG are not at full speed yet. Olympiakos have some experienced attacking players in Javier Saviola and Kostas Mitroglou (scored four goals in six games last year) who can burn PSG on the break. I don’t expect many goals – possibly one or two – but PSG are clearly the better side. If they can withstand some early pressure from the Greeks they will leave with a victory.

Bayern Munich – CSKA Moscow: Defending champions Bayern open with CSKA at home, who missed last season’s competition after reaching the knockout stage in 2011-12. CSKA have fared pretty well on the road, losing just two of their past eight games. CSKA are a dangerous team to Bayern and City in this group because they continue to fly under the radar despite their domestic success. However, Bayern will be far too strong in this one. At home, you can expect the Bavarians to take all three points.

Viktoria Plzen – Manchester City: Plzen have won all twelve of their games in qualifying in the club’s history after recording six more wins this season. Unfortunately, the quality of opponents in qualifying is far weaker than the group stage, and they now face two games against powerhouses Manchester City and Bayern Munich. There’s no real way to explain City’s ineptitude on the continent other than inexperience. This team is one of the most talented in the world and looks like they may finally be ready to showcase it. This fixture is a bit scary though, more so than perceived. Plzen have been dominating the Czech league and lost just one of their three home games in 2011-12, when they lost a man in the first half to a red card against Barcelona. City’s leaky defense coupled with a Champions League record of one win and five losses in six away games spells trouble. I think City can steal a win here, but if they overlook Plzen they are already going to be a hole when Bayern comes to England on Matchday 2.

Chelsea – FC Basel: Chelsea have been dominant at home in the Champions League, winning eight and drawing one in their last nine. Chelsea defeated Basel home and away last season, but the Swiss side has lost just two of their last nine games on the road in the Champions League. Jose Mourinho has always had a strong home record and it would be a shock to see Chelsea drop points in this one. Basel are likely the second-best team in this group but lack the general quality for a dream result here. Chelsea should begin their campaign with three points.

Schalke – Steaua Bucharest: Schalke are one of those teams that typically flies under the radar. They won Group B last year and reached the semi-finals three years ago, but nothing about this team instills any confidence in me that they are as good as either of those sides. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar is getting old, and while I love the signing of Kevin Prince-Boateng for this team, they still lack the bite that those other teams had. That being said, this is a game they should win. Steaua have not played in the Champions League in five years, when they lost five of their six games (one draw) and scored three goals (all in one game). I watched this team play when Chelsea faced them in the Europa League last year, and they have some decent players. They will be tough in Romania for everyone in this group, but on the road, they will be exposed.

Marseille – Arsenal: Marseille don’t have many big names but they are a solid, disciplined team that will give the other three teams in the “Group of Death” difficulty. Arsenal's addition of Mesut Ozil truly does make them a different team. They defeated Montpellier away in their first match in last year's group stage, and I expect them to leave with three points again. Marseille will have trouble with the speed of Arsenal's passing game. 

*Napoli – Dortmund*: Definitely the best game to watch. Napoli and Dortmund are two very strong teams with very potent offensive front lines. Lewandowski has returned to form and new signings Mkhitaryan and Aubameyang have helped Dortmund get off to a roaring start in the Bundesliga. The goals are flooding in for Jurgen Klopp’s men and they are showing no signs of slowing down. Napoli are also off to a perfect start in Serie A, as Rafael Benitez has picked up right where he left off at Chelsea. Hamsik looks like a top player and former Real players Higuain and Callejon are putting away their opportunities.

This game will be interesting regardless of whether the goals continue to flow in for these clubs – Napoli would prefer a low-scoring affair and will likely set up as such. This is not to say they will play passively, but Italian sides are historically defensive, especially at home, and with a team of Dortmund’s pedigree, it would be wise not to open up the play too much. In a game that could go either way, a draw looks likely. Despite their run to the final last season, Dortmund won just one game away from home.

AC Milan – Celtic: Milan are not off to a great start in Serie A as they face Celtic, who have won four of their first five in the weak Scottish Premier League. Celtic played fantastically to finish second to Barcelona in their group last year, while AC Milan were downed by the Catalans in the knockout round. Milan will be very tough to beat at home and Celtic will likely hope for a draw. The Scottish champions are not as strong as they were last year and AC Milan should dispatch of them without much drama.

Barcelona – Ajax: Barcelona are a top contender for Champions League glory this year after signing Neymar to complement Messi. Teams without the defensive know-how to play against Barca are in a lot of trouble and Ajax will be hard-pressed to keep this game close. I think their chances at home against teams in this group are far greater than on the road. They can score against Barca’s weak defense but conceded a ton of goals in last year’s group stage. This one could be a great match if Ajax can implore some of Celtic’s gameplan against the Catalans last year, but expect Barcelona to start their Group G campaign with three points.

*Atletico Madrid – Zenit*: Atletico and Zenit certainly know how to score and should provide goals in Madrid. Atletico make their first appearance since 2008-09 where they were awful, yielding just three points in three games. Zenit have had mixed results in Europe despite their recent shopping sprees. They destroyed their two opponents in qualifying, while Atletico have been scoring plenty of goals in La Liga (14 goals in their first 4 games). I give Atletico the edge here at home and because this is an especially long trip for Zenit. Certainly going to be a fun one to watch regardless of the result.

Austria Vienna – FC Porto: Austria Vienna make their first appearance in the group stage against perennials FC Porto. During their last appearance in the Champions League they were defeated in qualifying by Portuguese side Benfica 4-1 on aggregate, but did manage a draw at home. It is always tough gauging the weaker teams of the competition, as they are normally significantly weaker in talent, but if they have a good coach, they can play with the big boys. Cypriot side APOEL reached the quarterfinals two years ago, while Belorussian side BATE were the only team to beat eventual champions Bayern in last year’s edition. I’m going to go harsh here – I don’t see much to like in Vienna and Porto could serve them a brutal lesson about playing on Europe’s biggest stage.