Analyzing the “Big 6”

When Roman Abramovich bought Chelsea in 2003, it created what was called the “Big 4” of English football – Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. When Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan purchased Manchester City, the “Big 4” turned into a “Big 3”, but evolved back into a “Big 4”, with City taking Liverpool’s place. This summer, I think we will see the formation of a new “Big 6” for at least the next few years. There was a risk of a return to the “Big 3”, as Arsenal have not looked like title contenders recently, but their spending and the emergence of Tottenham and Liverpool should create a close competition at the top of the Premier League. United, City and Chelsea are on a bit of a higher level than the other three clubs, but I expect it to be very tight at the top.

• Arsenal have been slowly declining since 2009 and have gone eight trophy-less years under Arsene Wenger, but the signing of Mesut Ozil has turned around what has been a dismal transfer policy and reignited the club’s trophy hopes. After years of failed signings and big-money departures with no replacements, Arsenal have finally made a splash in the transfer market. Ozil was expensive, but he is “the best #10 in the world” by Mourinho’s standards, and touted highly by many observers. He was the statement signing they needed.

• Tottenham have continuously tried to break into the Champions League places but have only succeeded in doing so once (although they did come in fourth in 2011-2012). Despite losing Gareth Bale to Real Madrid, Tottenham’s team is arguably better now, as new signings Paulinho, Erik Lamela and Christian Eriksen should have a sizeable impact. Roberto Soldado is already having an impact with two goals in his first three Premier League games.

• Liverpool’s signings are providing the best results at the time being, as they sit atop the Premier League with three wins from three. Daniel Sturridge has been brilliant since his arrival from Chelsea, and while I don’t expect his goal-scoring form to continue, he is the type of player who can be a danger to score at any time. Mamadou Sakho was another good signing and the acquisition of Victor Moses on loan could create a dangerous wing partnership with young star Raheem Sterling. Liverpool didn’t hit all of their transfer targets but are certainly stronger than last year’s team that finished seventh. The Reds haven’t finished higher than sixth for the past four seasons and will be desperate to break back into the Champions League places.

With the transfer window now closed, and no real other contenders for a top-six place, I can give a reasonable prediction about each team’s year-end place in the league.

Manchester United

Current Status: Worrying

There’s no one who would like to see United have a Liverpool-esque fallout more than me, but I think many people are hitting the panic button on this team too early. The squad is largely the same as last year’s, which won twenty-eight Premier League games to win the league by eleven points. However, there was always going to be a huge impact when Sir Alex Ferguson decided to retire, and despite David Moyes being a justifiable replacement, the club is going to undergo an inevitable dip. This was already illustrated during the transfer window when United seemed to have a new target to chase every week, and did not acquire a single one until they escaped with Marouane Fellaini (whom they overpaid for). Moyes did manage to keep a hold of Wayne Rooney, and did not lose any other key members of the squad, but it is very concerning that they did not get any of their early targets. Thinking United would fall too far would be naïve; it just does not look promising for an aging team with a manager who is new to the big stage. Their Champions League group is a tricky one as well.

Projection: Third

Manchester City

Current Status: Trending Upwards

Things are looking like they are falling into place this season for Manchester City. Manuel Pellegrini did a great job strengthening the team and they finally don’t have a “Group of Death” in the Champions League. Big money signings Fernandinho and Stevan Jovetic will add to the team’s enormous depth, and Jesus Navas will fit nicely into a wing role. Alvaro Negredo has already scored twice but I don’t see him having too big of an impact, and Martin DeMichelis is old. But getting rid of Carlos Tevez and Kolo Toure will also help the team, although they could have signed another defender. They will have to play Bayern in the group stage, and I warn them to be wary of CSKA, but they should find themselves in the knockout stage of the UCL for the first time this season. City have a deep squad and have finished in the top three in the Premier League the past three seasons, but I expect their possible European run to have an impact on their domestic durability. They are also looking very sloppy in their own third of the field, which Pellegrini needs to fix immediately. City will be in the mix for the whole season, but their strong odds of progressing in the Champions League could actually hurt their domestic season.

Projection: Second

Chelsea

Current Status: Elite

Now before I have to hear anything about being biased, I would ask everyone to take a look at what Chelsea did this offseason. They brought back mutually beloved manager Jose Mourinho, who is unquestionably the best man for the post, while adding Andre Schurrle, Marco Van Ginkel, Willian, and Samuel Eto’o. They also received Kevin De Bruyne back from loan. Mourinho was able to get Victor Moses and Romelu Lukaku out on loan instead of holding them on the bench, while offloading older players Yossi Benayoun and Flourent Malouda. The team had needs at manager, striker, holding midfielder, and attacking midfielder this offseason. All of these needs were addressed. It is arguable that the defense is still a bit weak, but Chelsea have a team built to win trophies. They had the third best defensive record in the Premier League last season, and Mourinho is known for his tactical drilling in that end of the field, so there is no reason to expect worse. There isn’t any coming together needed like City or Tottenham or any major regime change like United – it is simply the reinforcement of the existing blueprint with a manager and players who fit the system. This team can compete with anyone, and the stability Mourinho brings to the volatile club is what gives them the edge in the Premier League this season.

Projection: First

Arsenal

Current Status: Optimistic

For the first time in years, Arsenal fans watched the transfer window end with something to be cheery about. Whatever your rating of Ozil might be, it has to be high, and he not only helps the team on the field, but also put a much needed support under the club’s ailing transfer policy. If the Ozil signing helps Arsenal’s fortunes greatly this season, then top-tier players will be attracted to the club again. This is a sizeable task though – Ozil is an elite player but his position, the No. 10 role, was not a need for the Gunners. They still possess just an above-average goalie in Wojciech Szczesny and a front-line starved for depth. Wenger’s plans to sell Nicklas Bendtner came to a halt this summer when Lukas Podolski and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain picked up injuries, leaving Bendtner as the only forward player behind Olivier Giroud. Giroud has been improving, but has not established himself as a top-level striker yet and has no competition for his place. Gervinho left this summer, and although he will not be missed much, the return of Mathieu Flamini as Arsenal’s only other major signing is hardly inspirational. I commend Arsenal for acquiring Ozil, because without him they had little chance of progressing through their difficult group in the Champions League, or finishing in the top four in England. His impact will only be seen over time, and my fear is he could add to Arsenal’s tendency to dissect teams without scoring goals. It’s going to be tight to secure a Champions League place, but Arsenal fans must be optimistic about Wenger’s rare splash.

Projection: Fourth

Tottenham Hotspur

Current Status:  In Transition

The Gareth Bale saga consumed most of Tottenham’s summer, but I can barely have any sympathy – we all knew he was going to leave and it is largely Daniel Levy’s fault for dragging out the process all summer. No team wants to lose a player like Bale but the exorbitant sum they received for him will make this team better as a whole. I mentioned the big signings above – they also brought in defender Vlad Chiriches, midfielder Etienne Capoue, and midfielder Nacer Chadli to add even more depth. The one sale I don’t understand is Steven Caulker, who Spurs sold to Cardiff. Why sell a 21-year old defender to another Premier League side when you lack the depth in that area? Mysterious to me, and they’d better hope Jan Vertonghen doesn’t go down with an injury. As a whole, this team looks like it could be really good, but it always takes time to put a team together with so many new signings. It will be very tight for Champions League places, but Spurs look like they will fall a little short again. If it begins to come together, this team will bea title contender next season.  

Projection: Fifth

Liverpool

Current Status: Overachieving

Liverpool have struggled for the past four years and are looking at this campaign as a make-or-break one for Brendan Rodgers. It is off to the best possible start, as three 1-0 victories have given them a nice boost to start the season. The signing of Sakho was huge, as was the loan pickup of Aly Cissokho from Valencia. Getting rid of Andy Carroll and Stewart Downing is also a good sign, as those players struggled mightily during their Liverpool careers. I don’t believe this success is sustainable. I like how Liverpool boosted their defense and brought in Simon Mignolet to be their #1 in goal, but I don’t think the midfield play is going to be strong enough to contend with the five sides mentioned above. They were twelve points behind fourth place last year and breaching the top three looks very unlikely. Luis Suarez’s return from suspension should bring a boost to the side, especially if he can partner up with Sturridge. This team’s problem has been finishing chances, so two goal scorers on the field could see the Reds have a breakthrough season. I’m still at the stage where I have to see it to believe it. Liverpool, like Spurs, could wind up in a Champions League spot, but look just a bit weaker than their rivals at this point.

Projection: Sixth