2014 FIFA World Cup Qualifying & International Update

I haven’t checked in on any of the international qualifying games going on recently and it is really getting interesting. Some qualification phases have concluded and are awaiting a playoff, while others have only a few games remaining. It’s do-or-die time for teams like Mexico, Denmark, and England if they want to make the trip to Brazil next summer.

AFC (Asia)

Qualified: Australia (4th appearance), Iran (4th), Japan (5th), South Korea (9th)

Still in Contention: Jordan

Spots Available: 1

AFC, the Asian Football Confederation, finishes its qualifying phases early. The final phase consists of two groups, where the top two sides go through the World Cup and the third-place sides contest a play-off. Iran and South Korea qualified from Group A, Japan and Australia qualified from Group B, while Uzbekistan and Jordan qualified for the play-off, which Jordan won on 9-8 on penalties after a 2-2 aggregate score. Asia’s four qualifiers are good, but not great. Japan and South Korea are the strongest of the four, but they will both need to show signs of improvement to make any dent in Brazil. South Korea are the only Asian team to reach the semi-finals of the tournament when they did so, albeit controversially, as co-hosts in 2002.

Jordan now advances to the “intercontinental playoff” against the fifth place team from CONMEBOL (South America). This place right now belongs to Uruguay, but could also be Ecuador, Chile, or Colombia (although unlikely). Ugh. There’s no team there that Jordan has much of a shot against, and Uzbekistan would have had little hope either. The games are played on the field, not on paper, but it’s hard to see Asia having a fifth team in Brazil.  

CAF (Africa)

Qualified: None

Still in Contention: Algeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, Senegal

Spots Available: 5

CAF’s second round group stage concluded on Tuesday with eight of the top seeds advancing, while second-pot side Cape Verde nipped Tunisia to advance and fourth-pot minnows Ethiopia won Group A. The ten remaining teams are entered into a two-legged playoff, with the top five sides being seeded (according to FIFA ranking). The seeded sides for the third round will be Ivory Coast, Ghana, Algeria, Nigeria, and Cape Verde, and the draw takes place on September 16. The winners will advance to Brazil.

There are some strong teams in Africa, and although performance was not as high as anticipated in South Africa, there will be a few teams from CAF who can make some noise. Ivory Coast and Ghana have been the region’s powerhouses, while Algeria and Cameroon were impressive in the second round. Egypt are one of the region’s best teams, and have the leading goal scorer in FC Basel stud Mohamed Salah, but could be pitted against one of the top sides because of their weak performance over the last few years. I just hope they don’t get drawn against Algeria again because that will just be bedlam. Cape Verde and Ethiopia will be hoping to draw each other as neither side stands much of a chance against the other eight.

CONCACAF (North America / Caribbean)

Qualified: Costa Rica (4th), United States (10th)

Still in Contention: Honduras, Panama, Mexico, Jamaica (barely)

Spots Available: 2

Costa Rica and the United States clinched their spots in Brazil on Tuesday to leave one automatic qualifying place left, along with an intercontinental playoff spot against New Zealand for fourth place. Honduras are currently third with 11 points, Panama and Mexico are tied for fourth with 8 points (the sides are even on goal difference, Panama is ahead on goals scored), and Jamaica has just 4 points. Each team has two games remaining, with the most intriguing being Panama’s trip to Mexico City on October 11. Panama defeated Mexico twice during the Gold Cup and will only need a draw to give themselves a great opportunity to qualify ahead of the Mexicans when they host the United States on the final matchday.

CONCACAF is certainly not the strongest confederation, but it is definitely the tightest. Costa Rica leads the group in goals scored with just 11 in eight games, and their goal difference of +6 also tops the group. There is no dominant player here, particularly because of how disappointing Mexico have been. After Tuesday’s loss to the United States, it is now fair to look into the last time Mexico did not qualify for a World Cup. That year was 1982, where Honduras and El Salvador represented the confederation (although I’m not counting 1990, when Mexico was banned for fielding above-age players in youth matches). They have been downright pathetic, especially at home, where they have accumulated three goalless draws and a 2-1 loss to Honduras. Mexico has scored four goals in eight games. They need to turn it around quickly, and even changing the coach did not inspire better performances. If Mexico fails to beat Panama again, fans could be staring in the face a scenario they never imagined.

CONMEBOL (South America)

Qualified: Argentina (16th), Brazil (20th, hosts)

Still in Contention: Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay, Venezuela (barely)

Spots Available: 4

Typically the toughest-played qualification federation in the world, South America has been unusually tame this round, perhaps due to the absence of Brazil. The top four sides qualify for the World Cup while the fifth-place team plays in the aforementioned inter-continental playoff against Jordan. Argentina guaranteed themselves a top-four place and a trip to Brazil with Tuesday’s 5-2 win in Paraguay. With two matchdays remaining, Colombia has 26 points, Chile has 24 and Ecuador and Uruguay have 22 with Ecuador ahead on goal difference. Venezuela has 19 points, but have played one extra game and are six goals behind Uruguay in goal difference, FIFA’s first tiebreaker. They would need either Ecuador or Uruguay to lose both of their remaining matches, coupled with a sizeable win over Paraguay to help make up the massive goal difference. It’s unlikely, but not impossible, given Ecuador and Uruguay play each other, then Ecuador heads to on-fire Chile while Uruguay host Argentina. Ecuador in particular have been struggling, picking up just two points from their last four qualifiers. However, I think both sides are safe to reach a minimum of the playoff (fifth place). I don’t think Jordan stand much of a chance against a South American side, and we should see five South American teams in next year’s tournament.

CONMEBOL has typically been headlined by Argentina and Brazil, though Uruguay have been one of the world’s best teams over the last four years. Brazil are favorites to win the 2014 World Cup, and it’s hard to see them losing on home soil. I think Argentina and Uruguay are the only ones who even have a chance. Brazil destroyed Spain in the Confederations Cup Final over the summer, and although Germany look like a top contender from UEFA, they haven’t banished their youth enough to take out a giant like Brazil on this type of stage. Keep in mind, no team outside of South America has ever won on the continent’s soil, with Brazil winning two, Argentina one, and Uruguay one.

OFC (Oceania)

Qualified: None

Still in Contention: New Zealand

Spots Available: 1

OFC has been the weakest FIFA confederation by far since Australia decided to leave for AFC. It was weak before then, which is why Australia left, but it’s even worse now. Tahiti were unfortunately celebrated for their dismal showing in the Confederations Cup; they were praised for being the ultimate “minnow” and representing a tiny island that has never had a presence in world football. I respect their accomplishments but don’t warm to that type of story when it seriously degrades the overall quality of the game, as it resulted in a pathetic -23 goal difference over three games. Thankfully, New Zealand won the third round group and advanced to the intercontinental playoff with the 4th placed team from CONCACAF. New Zealand isn’t very good, but they have a far better chance than Jordan of reaching next summer’s finals. They will be rooting for Panama or Honduras instead of Mexico, but regardless of their opponent they will be underdogs to reach Brazil.

UEFA (Europe)

Qualified: Italy (18th), Netherlands (10th)

Still in Contention: Many

Spots Available: 11

UEFA gets the most berths at next year’s World Cup, as 13 of the 32 teams will be from Europe. The format is a nine-group stage where the winner of each group advances directly to Brazil. The best eight second-place teams participate in the playoffs, a two-legged home and away aggregate. Here is a brief overview of the groups and their current situations.

Playoff Note: There are nine groups, so there are nine second-place teams. One team cannot make the playoffs because nine is an odd number. The second-place teams have their own standings, and the last-place team is eliminated. There are only five teams in Group I, so points in the second-place standings are decided by removing the results against the last-place (6th) team in each group, which is typically a very bad team. This gives a better relative strength of the team’s performance in the group. Group B’s current second-placed team, Bulgaria, is currently the one left out, as two of their three wins are against sixth-placed Malta, so they are not counted. But there is plenty of time for those standings to change. It’s just something to keep in mind, as second-place is not a guarantee for the playoffs.

Group A: Belgium lead Croatia by five points with two matches remaining. The Belgians head to Croatia for their next match before hosting last-place Wales. Their only dropped points in qualifying were a 1-1 draw against the Croats. Even if Croatia beat them in October, it’s difficult to see Belgium losing a game at home when they will likely only require a point (unless Croatia can make up the goal difference). Croatia will have to try their luck in the playoffs.

Group B: Italy have qualified. Bulgaria, Denmark, Czech Republic and Armenia are separated by just four points. Bulgaria lead Denmark by a point and have the best goal difference, but Denmark are the better team and have a gift three points with a home match remaining against Malta. Armenia must be regretting their awful performance in a 1-0 home loss to the Maltese, which now leaves them in a must-win against Bulgaria in their next game. The Czechs also get to play Malta, but face a trip to Bulgaria in the last matchday. It’s a muddled foursome in Group B, and none of these teams are much better than the others, but I will take Denmark for second place. The game against Malta along with a home match against Italy (with the Italians already qualified) should see them gain six points. Denmark will need to win that game against Italy to have a chance of avoiding the last-place second-place team tag. I don’t think Bulgaria wins their final two games. Two of their three wins were against Malta and travelling to Armenia will not be easy.

Group C: Germany lead the group with 22 points, while Sweden are in second with 17 and Austria have 14. Ireland are still technically alive but they would need every result to go their way, including winning in Germany in their next game. Not happening. The Austrians, who have a good young team, have made this group interesting by defeating the Irish to pull three points behind the Swedes. The kicker – the next game pits Austria against Sweden in Solna. If the Swedes can avoid losing at home, they face Germany, who will most likely be already qualified, in their last game. Austria goes to the Faroe Islands, who have lost all eight of their games. This is a must-not-lose for Sweden, or they can forget about the playoffs. They have not conceded a goal yet at home, and Austria have taken just two points from three away games, but this will be a fun one to watch. Sweden would love to clinch their playoff spot with a win to avoid the drama, and they should be able to do so.

Group D: Netherlands have qualified. Hungary are second with 14 points, with Turkey and Romania one point behind (Turkey is ahead on goal difference). Turkey has the most momentum due to their recent performances and have a better side than the other two teams, but they both have a free three points waiting against Andorra. To their credit, Andorra have been better than past years, but Hungary and Romania will beat them to complete another 0-for-10 for the tiny Iberian country. Romania have the best chance to reach the playoffs, as their other game is against Estonia at home. Turkey must travel to Estonia prior to hosting the Dutch, who face the Hungarians beforehand. If Hungary can win in Holland, it is all over, but any other result leaves the door open for the Turks and Romanians. I’m going to pick Romania for second, as the other two sides will have trouble defeating the Dutch, whose only dropped points were a bizarre 2-2 draw in Estonia. Go figure.

Group E: Group E is a mess. Switzerland are in first place with 18 points, Iceland is in second with 13, Slovenia has 12, Norway has 11, and Albania has 10. Ugh. This group was by far the weakest from the draw and it’s been very competitive, albeit at a lower quality level than many of the other groups. The Swiss are all-but in; they have the best team and are at least eight goals ahead on goal difference versus any other team in the group. Naturally I’d look to who plays Cyprus, the only team not in contention in the group, but the one win they had was against second-placed Iceland and their draw was against the Swiss. So there’s no telling what’s going to happen here. I think it will be between Iceland and Slovenia, and I’m going to go with the worse team here in Iceland. They face Cyprus at home first, giving themselves a great opportunity to open a gap with the other sides before heading to Norway. Slovenia are more experienced but first face Norway, who have been in good form away from home, before heading to Switzerland. It really is anyone’s guess though and I don’t expect any of these teams to reach the World Cup finals through the playoffs.

Group F:  Russia lead the group with 18 points, Portugal has 17, and Israel are clinging on with 12 points. It was a shame to see Israel draw 1-1 with Azerbaijan at home, as a victory would have given them 14 points, just a win behind the Portuguese. With the next game being between the two sides in Portugal, Israel could have put serious pressure on Ronaldo & crew, who always seem to make things harder from themselves in qualifying. Instead, the game is essentially meaningless, as even if Portugal lose they host Luxembourg, who they will beat at home. Oh well. Russia have the group wrapped up and will be heading to Brazil. Despite being just one point ahead, the Russians play away to both Azerbaijan and Luxembourg. Dropping points and falling into the playoff positions is not impossible, especially considering neither side is a complete walkover and Russia lost 1-0 at Northern Ireland. I still expect them to win the group with the Portuguese going to the playoffs again.

Group G: One of the easiest groups to decipher at this point is Group G. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Greece are joint-top with 19 points, but the Bosnians are +20 on goal difference while the Greeks are just +5. Both sides face last-place Liechtenstein; Bosnia heads to Lithuania while Greece hosts Slovakia. These teams have been dominant in group play, far exceeding expectations from a consistency point of view. Bosnia’s one slip up was a 1-0 home loss against Slovakia, which they avenged on Tuesday with a 2-1 come-from-behind win. Greece’s one loss was in Bosnia, and each team’s draw was against each other. The game in Lithuania is tricky, but Bosnia look like they will be headed to their first ever World Cup finals, and will be a fun team to watch when they are there. Greece looks playoff bound again, and will be one of the toughest teams to oust.

Group H: This group was always going to be fun and it has not disappointed. England are on top of the group with 16 points, Ukraine and Montenegro are tied with 15 (Ukraine are head on goal difference) and Poland are still alive with 13. Ukraine and Montenegro have a huge advantage as they play San Marino and Moldova, respectively. San Marino is the worst team in UEFA (-42 goal difference) and Moldova is in the bottom-tier. Those should be three points a piece for those sides, moving them up to 18. England host Montenegro and then Poland, who travel to Ukraine for their other game.

It’s going to be wild. Montenegro have been a thorn in England’s side for the last few years in qualifying, and they are not an easy side to defeat. England’s +22 goal difference and record of four wins and four draws is extremely deceiving. Their four wins came against Moldova and San Marino by the count of: 22-0. There’s the +22. Their four draws against Montenegro, Poland, and Ukraine twice have been negative and uninspiring. If Poland had not drawn 1-1 with Moldova there would be even more pressure. This team has plenty to prove to itself and to the rest of the world, and they can do so by beating the Montenegrins. But will they? It would be surprising to see England not at least qualify for the playoffs, but they really should win this group. Two home matches in these circumstances are must-wins. The other spot rides on the Ukraine-Poland game. If the Ukrainians win, they are assured a spot in the playoffs at minimum, a draw would leave results out of their hands, while a loss would give the Poles a huge opportunity to progress to the playoffs.

The most interesting scenario would be a draw between England and Montenegro and a Polish victory over Ukraine. That would leave England with 17 points, Poland and Montenegro with 16, and Ukraine with 15. Considering Montenegro and Ukraine will most likely win their final games respectively, we can assume that would put Montenegro at 19 points and Ukraine at 18. England would need a win against the Poles to win the group and avoid the playoffs. A draw also might not be good enough if the Ukrainians make up the goal difference, which is possible given their 9-0 hammering of San Marino in Lviv (they are currently seven goals behind). But the Poles could also advance to Brazil with a win in England, giving them 19 points (they currently have a better goal difference than Montenegro). Hypothetically, this could be crazy.

Group I: Spain are going to Brazil. They are level on points with France but have a game in hand and both are home against vastly inferior opposition. They also lead the French on goal difference. They would need to draw or lose both games and France would have to beat Finland. They will beat the Finns, but it will only be good enough for a playoff spot.

European teams have won the last two World Cups and Spain have won the last three major tournaments involving European teams. At this point, Germany, Netherlands, and Italy are just as good. It will be interesting to see how these sides do in a hostile environment – Spain already showed a weaker resolve when faced with Brazilian noise in their ears. Belgium is a quiet dark horse in this tournament; they are very young but one of the most talented teams in the world. They have a more experienced defense, a good goalkeeper, and a host of attacking players. Look out for the Belgians. I also think Bosnia will be fun to watch if they qualify. Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic have torn up qualifying and the ability to score goals is far more important on the international stage than the club stage given the defense tactics employed in the international game. They won’t make it too far because of inexperience but will certainly entertain fans.