All of the group stages for qualification to next summer’s
World Cup are finished. 21 places have been clinched, while the final 11 will
be decided through playoffs. Four places belong to UEFA, five to CAF, one to
the AFC-CONMEBOL playoff, and one to the CONCACAF-OFC playoff. It’s the last
chance for these teams to reach next year’s main event in Brazil.
AFC
Qualified: Iran (1st, Group A), South
Korea (2nd, Group A), Japan
(1st, Group B), Australia
(2nd, Group B)
Playoff: Jordan (3rd, Group B) – qualified to play Uruguay
No big updates here, the four qualified sides had already
done so months ago. The news here is that Jordan’s
opponent in the international playoff will be fifth-placed CONMEBOL side Uruguay. A
victory over a two-legged tie seems just about impossible for the Middle
Eastern country. Have stranger things happened? I suppose, but if Jordan knocks Uruguay out of the World Cup it
would be among the biggest shocks in football history. Best of luck.
CAF
Playoffs – First Leg Results
Ivory Coast
3:1 Senegal
Ethiopia
1:2 Nigeria
Tunisia
0:0 Cameroon
Ghana 6:1
Egypt
Burkina Faso
3:2 Algeria
Analysis: Ivory Coast are off to a strong start against Senegal,
and should find their way through to the World Cup. A late away goal from
Papiss Cisse gives Senegal a
chance, but Ivory Coast
are the best team in this region and will likely score themselves in the return
leg. Nigeria received the
dream draw by receiving minnows Ethiopia,
and took full advantage despite falling behind early in the second half. The
one-goal lead and the two away goals give Nigeria almost a sure-fire place in
next summer’s tournament. Ghana
absolutely hammered Egypt,
leaving the second leg a mere formality. At 3-1, and even 4-1, you would give
the Egyptian side a sliver of hope, but a five-goal deficit will be too much
for Bob Bradley’s upstart team to overcome. A traditional powerhouse, Ghana has booked their place in Brazil.
The other two ties have all to play for. Burkina
Faso managed a late winner against Algeria but conceded twice, and Algeria will
head home knowing a goal would send them through. Expect them to take care of Burkina Faso with far less drama than they
experienced against Egypt
four years ago. Tunisia was
reinserted into this draw after Cape
Verde fielded an ineligible player in their
final group game, which the island side had won 2-0. Instead the game was ruled
a forfeit, and a 3-0 win for Tunisia,
sending them through to the playoffs. They played out a 0-0 draw at home which
leaves everything in the balance for next month’s decider in Cameroon. This
one will be very tough to call, but Cameroon will be slight favorites
to qualify.
CONCACAF
Qualified: United States (1st), Costa
Rica (2nd), Honduras (3rd)
Playoff: Mexico (4th)
The United States
and Costa Rica qualified
last month, while Honduras
joined them with a win against the Costa Ricans. Mexico
will play in the intercontinental playoff against New Zealand after finishing fourth
in the group.
Mexico
was pathetic in this qualification round. It always seemed like the Mexicans
would turn it around in time to qualify for next summer’s tournament, but are
now in the playoff thanks to, of all teams, the United States. Two injury-time
goals gave the US a 3-2 win
over Panama,
which was inconsequential to their position but knocked the Panamanians out.
They would have advanced on goals scored had they won 2-1. As it is, Mexico gets to play a New Zealand team that is stronger
than Asian playoff side Jordan, but not very tough. This is a tie Mexico should
win easily, but can we really expect that at this point? Two wins from ten in
qualifying, just seven goals scored, and four goalless draws support the idea
that Mexico
is still ripe for the picking. Will they actually fall? I doubt it, but even if
they do qualify for next summer’s tournament, how can they expect to make any
kind of impact? At the very least, Mexico must record a heavy victory
over the two legs to instill some confidence before next summer. That is, if
they make it.
CONMEBOL
Qualified: Brazil (host), Argentina
(1st), Colombia (2nd), Chile (3rd), Ecuador (4th)
Playoff: Uruguay (5th)
Argentina
qualified last month, and Colombia
joined them after a 3-3 draw against Chile in their second-to-last
match. Chile qualified with
a win over Ecuador, who also
qualified on goal difference over Uruguay. It has to be a huge
disappointment for Uruguay
not to automatically qualify, but their performances are improving and they get
an easy matchup with Jordan
in the playoffs. Uruguay
will be in next year’s tournament, and I see them as one of maybe two or three
sides that could eliminate hosts Brazil.
OFC
Playoff: New Zealand
(1st)
New Zealand
qualified for the playoff last March with a win over New Caledonia. New Zealand have made significant
strides over the past decade, and they qualified for the last World Cup through
the playoffs. This time around, they play Mexico
instead of Bahrain,
which is clearly a tougher task. I expect the tie to be closer than perhaps any
other time in history, as Mexico are struggling to find any positive results,
and New Zealand are well-rested and their domestic league, where most of their
internationals play, is improving. It would still be quite the upset, but New Zealand
should be able to hang around the Mexicans.
UEFA
Qualified: Belgium (Group A), Italy (Group
B), Germany (Group C), Netherlands (Group D), Switzerland (Group E), Russia (Group F), Bosnia
& Herzegovina (Group G),
England (Group H), Spain (Group I)
Playoffs: Croatia (Group A), Sweden (Group C), Romania
(Group D), Iceland (Group E), Portugal (Group F), Greece (Group G), Ukraine
(Group H), France (Group I) (Note:
Denmark did not qualify despite finishing second in Group B. They had the worst
record among second-placed teams when discounting games against the group’s
sixth-place opponent.)
Russia
reached the World Cup finals automatically despite being drawn from Pot 2,
while Belgium, Switzerland and Bosnia came from even further down,
having been drawn from Pot 3. Overall there aren’t too many shocks up there – I
expected the Swiss to win Group E, Portugal
always choke in qualifying and Russia
took advantage, Bosnia’s
only real competition in Group G was Greece,
and Belgium
have one of the best young teams in the world. The most striking country still
left has to be Iceland,
who were drawn from Pot 6 – the worst pot in UEFA. Ranked a lowly 121 when the
pots were drawn, Iceland are
now a two-game aggregate tie away from one of the most improbable trips to Brazil. They
would be the smallest country in history to qualify if they progress. There
aren’t too many household names on the team, one of the noticeable being
Tottenham’s Gylfi Sigurdsson. They had some missteps, including giving Cyprus their
only win, but secured seventeen points from their ten games. Congrats to Iceland on
their achievements.
Norway
again top the list of disappointments, as they failed to take advantage of what
was by far the softest group in qualifying, Group E. The Norwegians didn’t
deserve to be in Pot 1 anyway, but they were brutal in a group that gave them
their best chance to qualify for a major tournament in perhaps their entire
history. Turkey was also
among the underachievers, falling three points short of the playoffs and
finishing behind Romania and
Hungary.
The Turks have been a big disappointment since their semi-final appearance in
Euro 2008.
The playoffs are as follows (home team for first game is listed first):
Portugal vs Sweden
Ukraine vs France
Greece vs Romania
Iceland vs Croatia
I would expect to see Portugal, France, Greece, and Croatia in next year's World Cup. Iceland got the draw that gives them the best chance, as an out-of-form and coachless Croatia limp into the playoffs. Greece face Romania in a tie that will likely feature two or three goals between the two games. Ukraine got the unlucky draw by playing France, but it will be very tight. Ukraine are an underrated side because of their youth. One of Ronaldo or Zlatan will miss out on Brazil and you have to feel for Zlatan - his supporting cast isn't nearly as good. Portugal have advanced through the playoffs twice in a row and should be able to do so again.
