I apologize for the Top 25 being two days late, but I think I should publish it on Thursdays anyway to accommodate for the European ties taking place. Here is this week's Top 25:
Format: Rank (Previous) Team (Country)
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4 (4) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6 (7) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
7 (8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
8 (9) Juventus FC (ITA)
9 (11) AC Milan (ITA)
10 (10) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
11 (6) Chelsea FC (ENG)
12 (13) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
13 (14) SL Benfica (POR)
14 (12) Arsenal FC (ENG)
15 (19) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
16 (16) Schalke 04 (GER)
17 (17) LOSC Lille (FRA)
18 (18) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
19 (15) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
20 (20) Olympique Lyon (FRA)
21 (21) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
22 (22) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
23 (23) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
24 (25) SSC Napoli (ITA)
25 (NR) FC Basel (SWI)
Dropped: Udinese Calcio (24)
Notes:
TOP TEN: AC Milan return to the top ten after three consecutive wins, including a hammering of Arsenal and the infliction of Udinese's first home defeat. Milan certainly have the quality to play with anyone in Europe. It is all about keeping those players in form and focused.. I haven't moved Bayern down yet but they are certainly in worrying form. Draws against the weaker Bundesliga sides away from home will not be good enough in a year where there are four legitimate contenders. They are also the second top 5 team to lose away to FC Basel.. It was surprising to see Real Madrid concede a late goal against CSKA. Mourinho's teams are known for their ability to keep leads and get results. It didn't happen in Moscow, and while Real still have an advantage heading back to the Bernebeu, they failed to deliver the knockout blow.. I'm pretty sure Barcelona don't care about La Liga this season. Another loss, away to Osasuna, shows the lackadaisical nature of Barca's domestic season. Now ten points back of Real, the Catalans may not want to bother attempting to cut the large gap in order to focus on winning the Champions League.
11-25: Arsenal and Chelsea are now deadlocked in a tight race in the Premier League. Unfortunately for the London clubs, that race is for fourth place, not the title. Arsenal is all but out of the Champions League and have been eliminated from both domestic cups, while Chelsea faces a 3-1 deficit against Napoli and a replay against Birmingham to stay in the FA Cup. With the current top three looking very strong in the Premier League, the race looks down to these two big clubs for fourth (with maybe a mention for Newcastle). The club that does not obtain that fourth spot could be in a world of trouble.. FC Basel has earned its place in the Top 25 after an impressive 1-0 win over Bayern Munich. After enduring a torrid ten minute spell to start the contest, Basel grew into the game, creating multiple great chances, hitting two posts, before finally scoring the winner in the 86th minute. They do not pack the back like APOEL; Basel plays a very attractive style that has made them a loveable underdog. The task in Munich will be much more difficult, however.. Montpellier were minutes away from going top of Ligue 1 but PSG equalized to snatch a 2-2 draw. With thirty-one points out of thirty-six at home, along with a strong away record and top goal difference in the league, Montpellier must be considered a top-two team in France.. I'm impressed with the showings from both CSKA and Zenit in the Champions League. Both teams are on winter break and faced top-15 sides, with CSKA gaining a draw and Zenit a 3-2 win. I've rated these teams highly and they seem to be backing me up. Not quite sure why Zenit are attempting to acquire Andrei Arshavin though. Maybe a return would spark the little Russian's creativity back into him.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Monday, February 20, 2012
Champions League - Knockout Round, Part 2
This Tuesday and Wednesday are the stage for the final four first legs of the round of 16 in this year's Champions League. The only result that went against my projections last week was Zenit's win over Benfica, despite two errors by goalkeeper Yuri Zhevnov. Lyon sneaked by APOEL despite the Cypriots being on the back foot for nearly the entire game. Barcelona take a sizable lead back to Spain after scoring three away goals and Milan simply hammered Arsenal, all but ending the tie at the San Siro. Milan was quite impressive, but Arsenal were woeful in every aspect of the game.
This week's main event features Napoli hosting Chelsea in Italy. Napoli have shown inconsistent form this season but boast one of the most dangerous attacking trios in the world in Edinson Cavani, Ezequiel Lavezzi, and Marek Hamsik. The three could be a major problem for a Blues defense that could be without its leader John Terry. Despite the team's inconsistency in Serie A, Napoli have been strong in Europe and defeated Manchester City on aggregate in their two matches. Chelsea have been struggling, showing consistent unspectacular play against weak and strong opponents. AVB has come under intense scrutiny from the media of late, while Roman's true plans are unknown. Another defeat would certainly raise eyebrows in the Chelsea hierarchy, and nothing in their recent form suggests victory could be achieved. However, Chelsea have played far better in the Champions League than in the EPL, so a result is certainly not out of the question.
Marseille and Inter face off in what should be a very tight tie. Inter have taken one point from their last five matches in the league, scoring in just one of those five games. Inter have been able to put their domestic form to the side when playing in Europe, especially away, where they took seven points out of nine in Group B. Marseille endured a horrid spell at the beginning of the season, but have risen to fourth in Ligue 1 and have played pretty well lately. Marseille have a number of attacking options but can struggle defensively, and Inter have the strikers to punish a leaky defense, despite their recent futility. I find these two teams to be some of the hardest to project in the competition, so I think Inter will find a good result to take back to the San Siro.
The other two ties showcase underdog-superpower matchups, with CSKA hosting Real Madrid and FC Basel hosting Bayern. While I believe both favorites will win their matchups, Basel look like a much better shot in the dark as an upset. Their victory over Manchester United showed they could contend and play with a big club, not merely sit back and hope to get lucky on the break. Bayern has seemed a little off recently, falling five points behind Dortmund at the Bundesliga summit. Bayern does have a great record against Swiss opposition and are still likely to take a one or two goal advantage to Munich. I think CSKA are a better side that Basel, but Real Madrid have been a steamroller to any opposition not called Barcelona, and it will be very difficult to stop Madrid even in the freezing Moscow temperatures. There are simply too many attacking options for Jose Mourinho to choose from, all of which are experienced, top-level strikers.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
CSKA Moscow (21) - Real Madrid (2) : AWAY WIN
Napoli (25) - Chelsea (6) : DRAW
FC Basel (NR) - Bayern Munich (4) : AWAY WIN
Marseille (18) - Inter Milan (15) : DRAW
Rankings coming tomorrow night
This week's main event features Napoli hosting Chelsea in Italy. Napoli have shown inconsistent form this season but boast one of the most dangerous attacking trios in the world in Edinson Cavani, Ezequiel Lavezzi, and Marek Hamsik. The three could be a major problem for a Blues defense that could be without its leader John Terry. Despite the team's inconsistency in Serie A, Napoli have been strong in Europe and defeated Manchester City on aggregate in their two matches. Chelsea have been struggling, showing consistent unspectacular play against weak and strong opponents. AVB has come under intense scrutiny from the media of late, while Roman's true plans are unknown. Another defeat would certainly raise eyebrows in the Chelsea hierarchy, and nothing in their recent form suggests victory could be achieved. However, Chelsea have played far better in the Champions League than in the EPL, so a result is certainly not out of the question.
Marseille and Inter face off in what should be a very tight tie. Inter have taken one point from their last five matches in the league, scoring in just one of those five games. Inter have been able to put their domestic form to the side when playing in Europe, especially away, where they took seven points out of nine in Group B. Marseille endured a horrid spell at the beginning of the season, but have risen to fourth in Ligue 1 and have played pretty well lately. Marseille have a number of attacking options but can struggle defensively, and Inter have the strikers to punish a leaky defense, despite their recent futility. I find these two teams to be some of the hardest to project in the competition, so I think Inter will find a good result to take back to the San Siro.
The other two ties showcase underdog-superpower matchups, with CSKA hosting Real Madrid and FC Basel hosting Bayern. While I believe both favorites will win their matchups, Basel look like a much better shot in the dark as an upset. Their victory over Manchester United showed they could contend and play with a big club, not merely sit back and hope to get lucky on the break. Bayern has seemed a little off recently, falling five points behind Dortmund at the Bundesliga summit. Bayern does have a great record against Swiss opposition and are still likely to take a one or two goal advantage to Munich. I think CSKA are a better side that Basel, but Real Madrid have been a steamroller to any opposition not called Barcelona, and it will be very difficult to stop Madrid even in the freezing Moscow temperatures. There are simply too many attacking options for Jose Mourinho to choose from, all of which are experienced, top-level strikers.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
CSKA Moscow (21) - Real Madrid (2) : AWAY WIN
Napoli (25) - Chelsea (6) : DRAW
FC Basel (NR) - Bayern Munich (4) : AWAY WIN
Marseille (18) - Inter Milan (15) : DRAW
Rankings coming tomorrow night
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Champions League - Knockout Round, Part 1
Champions League football finally returns this week. The first legs of four ties are today and tomorrow, while the remaining four first legs will be next Tuesday and Wednesday. The return legs are on March 6, 7, 13, and 14. This week's games don't feature any of the top contenders, other than favorites Barcelona. The prime matchup is certainly between AC Milan and Arsenal. With the first leg at the San Siro, Milan will be looking to build an advantage to take to England. Arsenal do not know how to play defensively, even in away European ties, so this should make for an attractive game of football with a few well-taken goals in it. Milan has typically had quite a bit of difficulty against English opposition, but Arsenal have had a relatively poor season by their high standards. Look for Milan to grab an edge in the first leg, but there to be goals from both sides in the game.
The other matchup I really want to go into is between Zenit and Benfica. I think Zenit is an underrated and sometimes overlooked side, as I have boosted them to 13th in my rankings. They conceded just one goal in three home games in the group stages, and the icy Russian weather could really affect Benfica, which resides by the Iberian coast. The problem for Zenit is their lack of competitive matches - the Russian season is in winter break so they could be a bit rusty. Benfica have really come into form recently, and have a sparkling record of 15 wins and 3 draws in 18 matches in the league. In fact, their only competitive loss this season came against Maritimo, a 2-1 defeat in the cup. I think Benfica have the edge here but it will be a real challenge to get a result in Russia. The Portuguese might be better off playing for a draw and using their quality to win the tie at home, in a far better climate.
Barcelona should be able to take care of Bayer Leverkusen, although Barcelona has struggled when playing away in the league. This tie isn't as certain as it looked a few weeks ago, when Barcelona was demolishing the likes of Real Madrid and AC Milan with ease. The Catalans still look like prime favorites. The last match features Lyon against underdog-story APOEL. Lyon has been struggling for form, and I think they were ripe for an upset as it was - their playing style and lack of cutting edge (despite the seven goals against Dinamo Zagreb) was suitable for APOEL to play defensively and snatch the tie in Cyprus. The Cypriots are in form, having won three of their past four matches. It should be an interesting game, as APOEL will surely play defensively and look to counter, while it will be up to Lyon to break through their defensive line, which only conceded six goals in six games in Group G.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
Lyon (20) - APOEL (NR) : HOME WIN
Bayer Leverkusen (NR) - Barcelona (1) : AWAY WIN
Zenit St. Petersburg (13) - Benfica (14) : DRAW
AC Milan (11) - Arsenal (12) : HOME WIN
The other matchup I really want to go into is between Zenit and Benfica. I think Zenit is an underrated and sometimes overlooked side, as I have boosted them to 13th in my rankings. They conceded just one goal in three home games in the group stages, and the icy Russian weather could really affect Benfica, which resides by the Iberian coast. The problem for Zenit is their lack of competitive matches - the Russian season is in winter break so they could be a bit rusty. Benfica have really come into form recently, and have a sparkling record of 15 wins and 3 draws in 18 matches in the league. In fact, their only competitive loss this season came against Maritimo, a 2-1 defeat in the cup. I think Benfica have the edge here but it will be a real challenge to get a result in Russia. The Portuguese might be better off playing for a draw and using their quality to win the tie at home, in a far better climate.
Barcelona should be able to take care of Bayer Leverkusen, although Barcelona has struggled when playing away in the league. This tie isn't as certain as it looked a few weeks ago, when Barcelona was demolishing the likes of Real Madrid and AC Milan with ease. The Catalans still look like prime favorites. The last match features Lyon against underdog-story APOEL. Lyon has been struggling for form, and I think they were ripe for an upset as it was - their playing style and lack of cutting edge (despite the seven goals against Dinamo Zagreb) was suitable for APOEL to play defensively and snatch the tie in Cyprus. The Cypriots are in form, having won three of their past four matches. It should be an interesting game, as APOEL will surely play defensively and look to counter, while it will be up to Lyon to break through their defensive line, which only conceded six goals in six games in Group G.
Format: Teams (Ranking) : Result
Lyon (20) - APOEL (NR) : HOME WIN
Bayer Leverkusen (NR) - Barcelona (1) : AWAY WIN
Zenit St. Petersburg (13) - Benfica (14) : DRAW
AC Milan (11) - Arsenal (12) : HOME WIN
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Top 25 - February 7
The transfer window is now closed, and the top sides are all set for the run-in. Here is the updated Top 25:
Format: Rank (Previous) Team (Country)
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4 (4) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6 (7) Chelsea FC (ENG)
7 (8) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
8 (10) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9 (9) Juventus FC (ITA)
10 (11) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
11 (6) AC Milan (ITA)
12 (13) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (14) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
14 (16) SL Benfica (POR)
15 (12) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
16 (18) Schalke 04 (GER)
17 (17) LOSC Lille (FRA)
18 (15) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
19 (25) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
20 (21) Olympique Lyon (FRA)
21 (23) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
22 (NR) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
23 (NR) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
24 (NR) Udinese Calcio (ITA)
25 (20) SSC Napoli (ITA)
Dropped: Valencia CF (19), Bayer Leverkusen (22), FC Porto (24)
Notes
TOP TEN: The draw between Chelsea and Manchester United on Sunday showcased each team's respective strengths and weaknesses. Chelsea tend to either have too many men committed forward or too many held back, leading to either erratic, high-scoring games or one or two-goal games. United have a great attacking force and spirit to climb out of a deficit, but have shown repeated weakness on the backline. Neither team really has an identity, and it's February.. Dortmund jumped to the top of the Bundeliga after a fourth straight win in the league. Mario Gotze's absence has not been felt yet, as Jurgen Klopp has built a solid core in the midfield.. Tottenham failed to break down a Liverpool defense at Anfield, but it was a point gained rather than two dropped. Without VDV and Lennon, Tottenham do not have the same creativity, but coming away with a point away is key in the Premier League.. I'm liking PSG more and more. They play an attractive brand of football and have the quality of players to win the league. Other than Montpellier, the closest challengers are at least ten points behind.. Juventus is the only Italian club in the top ten. The Turin club are still undefeated in the league and despite some ugly results (a home draw vs. Siena this weekend), they are top of the league by a point with a game in hand over struggling AC Milan.
11-25: Just when you thought Inter Milan had put it back together, they lose away to relegation-threatened Lecce, concede four times in a draw with Palermo, which was followed by a 4-0 hammering courtesy of AS Roma. There's no consistency with the team, and it is going to be a real struggle to secure Champions League football next season.. Benfica have cruised through the Portuguese Liga this season. Fourteen wins from seventeen, along with three draws, see the club five points clear of Porto. By winning their Champions League group and drawing twice with Manchester United, Benfica have proven their top-level credentials despite being in a relatively weak league.. After PSG, all of the French clubs are grouped from 17-20. I have no idea where to put them. Montpellier are in the highest league position, but lack the player experience and club history of Lille, Marseille, and Lyon. It should be a tight battle for the UCL positions in France.. Newcastle enter the rankings this week after another impressive win over Aston Villa. It seems as if we've all been waiting for Newcastle's form to capitulate, but it hasn't happened. The team has kept to form through Demba Ba's absence and now Yohann Cabaye's absence. With Ba now back, Cabaye returning from suspension, and the addition of Papa Cisse, Newcastle's supporters are feeling ambitious about a European place.. Marco Reus continues to pull the strings for Borussia Monchengladbach. The unheralded side are currently fourth in the league, and just three points from the summit. Reus has helped lift this side and could be in line for a national team call before Euro 2012 this summer.. Udinese have taken 31 of a possible 33 points at the Stadio Friuli. Antonio Di Natale is back to form and is even being considered for an Italy recall. Their away form is troubling but in a weak Serie A, it may not matter.
Format: Rank (Previous) Team (Country)
1 (1) FC Barcelona (ESP)
2 (2) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
3 (3) Manchester City FC (ENG)
4 (4) FC Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester United FC (ENG)
6 (7) Chelsea FC (ENG)
7 (8) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
8 (10) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9 (9) Juventus FC (ITA)
10 (11) Paris St. Germain FC (FRA)
11 (6) AC Milan (ITA)
12 (13) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (14) FC Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
14 (16) SL Benfica (POR)
15 (12) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
16 (18) Schalke 04 (GER)
17 (17) LOSC Lille (FRA)
18 (15) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
19 (25) Montpellier HSC (FRA)
20 (21) Olympique Lyon (FRA)
21 (23) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
22 (NR) Newcastle United FC (ENG)
23 (NR) Borussia Monchengladbach (GER)
24 (NR) Udinese Calcio (ITA)
25 (20) SSC Napoli (ITA)
Dropped: Valencia CF (19), Bayer Leverkusen (22), FC Porto (24)
Notes
TOP TEN: The draw between Chelsea and Manchester United on Sunday showcased each team's respective strengths and weaknesses. Chelsea tend to either have too many men committed forward or too many held back, leading to either erratic, high-scoring games or one or two-goal games. United have a great attacking force and spirit to climb out of a deficit, but have shown repeated weakness on the backline. Neither team really has an identity, and it's February.. Dortmund jumped to the top of the Bundeliga after a fourth straight win in the league. Mario Gotze's absence has not been felt yet, as Jurgen Klopp has built a solid core in the midfield.. Tottenham failed to break down a Liverpool defense at Anfield, but it was a point gained rather than two dropped. Without VDV and Lennon, Tottenham do not have the same creativity, but coming away with a point away is key in the Premier League.. I'm liking PSG more and more. They play an attractive brand of football and have the quality of players to win the league. Other than Montpellier, the closest challengers are at least ten points behind.. Juventus is the only Italian club in the top ten. The Turin club are still undefeated in the league and despite some ugly results (a home draw vs. Siena this weekend), they are top of the league by a point with a game in hand over struggling AC Milan.
11-25: Just when you thought Inter Milan had put it back together, they lose away to relegation-threatened Lecce, concede four times in a draw with Palermo, which was followed by a 4-0 hammering courtesy of AS Roma. There's no consistency with the team, and it is going to be a real struggle to secure Champions League football next season.. Benfica have cruised through the Portuguese Liga this season. Fourteen wins from seventeen, along with three draws, see the club five points clear of Porto. By winning their Champions League group and drawing twice with Manchester United, Benfica have proven their top-level credentials despite being in a relatively weak league.. After PSG, all of the French clubs are grouped from 17-20. I have no idea where to put them. Montpellier are in the highest league position, but lack the player experience and club history of Lille, Marseille, and Lyon. It should be a tight battle for the UCL positions in France.. Newcastle enter the rankings this week after another impressive win over Aston Villa. It seems as if we've all been waiting for Newcastle's form to capitulate, but it hasn't happened. The team has kept to form through Demba Ba's absence and now Yohann Cabaye's absence. With Ba now back, Cabaye returning from suspension, and the addition of Papa Cisse, Newcastle's supporters are feeling ambitious about a European place.. Marco Reus continues to pull the strings for Borussia Monchengladbach. The unheralded side are currently fourth in the league, and just three points from the summit. Reus has helped lift this side and could be in line for a national team call before Euro 2012 this summer.. Udinese have taken 31 of a possible 33 points at the Stadio Friuli. Antonio Di Natale is back to form and is even being considered for an Italy recall. Their away form is troubling but in a weak Serie A, it may not matter.
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