Tuesday, October 23, 2012

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 - Preview

After a three week break, the Champions League is back with a number of scintillating matchups on the cards. The way the first two rounds have gone, it is simply must-see.

This year we have another fourth pot team making some noise, in the form of BATE Borisov. After last matchday's shocking 3-1 win over Bayern Munich, they must now be seriously considered as contenders to make the knockout round. A quick background on BATE - their name is pronounced bah-tay; their home stadium holds 5,402 people from the town of Barysaw, a town in central Belarus of about 150,000 people; this is their 14th consecutive year in European competition; they have won six straight domestic titles and are seven points clear this season. A mini-giant, so to speak, despite being located in a relatively small city. They haven't had much success in Europe, but clearly now they are in great shape, as they not only have been winning games, but playing with much more fancied and skilled opponents. Valencia will be another test this week, but this isn't the strong Valencia side of recent years, and they have been dreadful away from home. I'm not as optimistic still on BATE as I was with APOEL last year, but I think at the very least, they will take a point from the contest. This game is just as big - a loss along with two of their last three ties being away from home would leave their chances in the balance. It's nice to see another underdog doing well though - a reminder that money doesn't completely run the football world. Still, just an "almost."

HEADLINER: Borussia Dortmund v. Real Madrid

Again, it has to be Group D, as Dortmund hosts Real Madrid, making the group 3/3 in my headliner choices. The two-time German champions have been much stronger this year in the Champions League in both performances and results. They have struggled a bit domestically, but the quality is there to make this a great game to watch. Madrid are back to rolling along after a tough start, as it was only a matter of time before they corrected their problems. This game matches up two teams that are typically in attack mode and rarely play defensively, so I think we see an open game with plenty of scoring opportunities for both sides. Dortmund will feel hard done by after they should have taken all three points in Manchester, while Real could be a little more conservative as they are away from home. Dortmund should continue their solid European form and could take all three points, but Madrid will come prepared and will likely earn a share of the spoils.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Real Madrid

UPSET ALERT: Arsenal v. Schalke 04

Arsenal had another roller-coaster summer and their season is again off to a disappointing start. A pitiful performance in a loss to Norwich on Saturday lacked creativity and cutting edge, leading to very few scoring chances and a 1-0 result. The Gunners do not get Jack Wilshere back quite yet, and Olivier Giroud has hardly been a replacement for Robin Van Persie, so it does not appear promising against German power Schalke. The addition of Ibrahim Afellay has added more width to an already strong attacking side, and they match up very well against a very average Arsenal defense. Arsenal are historically dominant at home in Europe, but Schalke can break them down and inflict a damaging result away from home. Look for this game to also feature plenty of scoring chances and the Germans be in position to snatch a shock victory.

Prediction: Arsenal 1-2 Schalke

CONTRASTING FORTUNES: Malaga v. AC Milan

How things can change. Eight months ago, AC Milan were challenging for another Scudetto and competing in the knockout round of the Champions League, while Malaga were struggling to hold on to the success the new owners had promised due to a financial crisis. Today Malaga are third in La Liga and top of Group C after two 3-0 wins, while Milan are 15th in Serie A and in complete turmoil. Predictably, there are problems on both ends of the field after selling their best attacker and defender to PSG. I thought they would go down to Zenit, but took advantage of a team in more disarray than their own to steal a victory. In this matchup, they face a disciplined, though slightly inexperienced, in-form side in Malaga. They will be prepared to play. While it could be called an upset because of the difference in the histories of the two clubs, Malaga should come away with a victory. They are simply in much better form and things don't appear to be getting better anytime soon for the Italians.

Prediction: Malaga 2-1 AC Milan

Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses):

Spartak Moscow - Benfica (21) : DRAW
FC Nordsjaelland - Juventus (6) : AWAY WIN
BATE Borisov (24) - Valencia CF : DRAW
LOSC Lille - Bayern Munich (4) : AWAY WIN
Shakhtar Donetsk - Chelsea FC (3) : DRAW
Barcelona (2) - Celtic FC (25) : HOME WIN
Galatasaray - CFR Cluj-Napoca : DRAW
Manchester United (7) - Sporting Braga : HOME WIN
Zenit St. Petersburg (15) - RSC Anderlecht :  HOME WIN
Dinamo Zagreb - PSG (12) : AWAY WIN
FC Porto - Dynamo Kiev : HOME WIN
Arsenal (9) - Schalke 04 (13) : AWAY WIN
Montpellier - Olympiakos : HOME WIN
Malaga (14) - AC Milan (17) : HOME WIN
Ajax Amsterdam - Manchester City (5) : AWAY WIN
Borussia Dortmund (8) - Real Madrid CF (1) : DRAW

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