Wednesday, October 17, 2012

International Review - FIFA World Cup Qualification

There were a number of intriguing international results in this week's games. This was expected because the matchups were far more even than previous weeks - the first two days were primarily made up of heavy victories for the bigger countries. However, there are some results to pull out of the pile that may have long-term significance.

Result: Romania 1-4 Netherlands

What it means: The Romanians and Dutch both started with three wins from three, and this game was a test to see if the Romanians were for real after several years of domestic scandal and international turmoil. They failed - miserably. The Dutch dominated the game and showed that there is a large difference in quality between the two sides. It is not devastating for the Romanians - they are level on points with second-place Hungary, who lost to the Dutch by the same scoreline in September. Holland showed yet again that despite some of their stars aging, this is still one of the premier teams in Europe. Last year's disastrous showing at the Euros is behind them and they are a full-go for the World Cup. They will have no trouble qualifying from this group and could possibly go ten for ten.

Result: Ukraine 0-1 Montenegro

What it means: Montenegro go level on points at the top of Group H with England while Ukraine fall five points off the pace. Group H features both hosts of last summer's European Championship, but Montenegro are out to prove that their play-off appearance in the qualification for that tournament was no fluke. Montenegro are never going to overwhelm the public with their style of play, but they are very solid at the back and rarely concede more than one goal. This is a huge win to pick up away from home. For Ukraine, the first three qualification games have brought some bright spots but very poor results. Their 1-1 draw in England was a solid performance and a good result, but that was countered by a poor 0-0 draw in Moldova. Now this loss sets them back quite a bit. There is very little margin for error left for the Ukrainians if they wish to finish in the top two.

Result: Germany 4-4 Sweden

What it means: Definitely the most shocking result of the day - not because Sweden was able to gain a point, but because they trailed by four goals with a half hour remaining and somehow managed to snatch an equalizer in stoppage time. A truly improbable and spectacular comeback from the Swedes, who looked to be in a bit of trouble after struggling through a 2-1 win against the Faroes on Friday. The Germans will still be favorites in this group but questions must be asked of their defense in the second half - we know they can score but their defense was all over the place in the second half and Manuel Neuer had one of his worst games in goal. This seems like more of a wake-up call than anything for Germany. They have been progressing quickly with a very young batch of players and this could be a reminder that they need to continue working hard in order to reach their goal of winning a major trophy. Look for the Germans to improve immensely on the defensive end of the field as they win this group.

Result: Spain 1-1 France

What it means: Olivier Giroud's last-second equalizer gave France a draw in Spain, meaning a win in the return fixture would likely give the French an automatic spot in the World Cup. For the French, the performance was just as key as the result. France played with Spain with most of the match, although they were kept in it by Fabregas's missed penalty (which followed an abysmal challenge by Koscielny on Pedro). They had more possession than was expected and dominated the last twenty minutes. It's a very encouraging sign for Didier Deschamps. For Spain, they must know that a target will be on their back wherever they go, having won the last three major tournaments. Their key players should still be young enough (and effective enough) to feature at the World Cup, but games like this are a reminder

Result: Portugal 1-1 Northern Ireland

What it means: Portugal trip over a very short hurdle at home against Northern Ireland, dropping them into third in Group F. It seems that in every qualification, Portugal have a game like this - for Euro 2012 it was a 4-4 draw against Cyprus. One bad result is typically not killer, but these types of performances have been preventing Portugal from coming in first in their groups, forcing them to qualify through the playoffs. If Portugal ever want to be on the same level as their Iberian neighbors, they must be more disciplined and ruthless to take three points from this game. It's not as if this is the Northern Ireland that defeated Spain and England in the last decade. They drew with Luxembourg in their last match.

Result: USA 3-1 Guatemala

What it means: The USA are through to the next round of CONCACAF qualifying while Guatemala is out. The USA needed this win and got it - it was not as easy as it should have been but the result is what mattered. The more I see the USA, the more I find it hard to imagine them winning a game without Clint Dempsey. The man has come into his own over the last twelve months, moving into a more forward position (and thriving) at Fulham and playing the same role with the USA and Tottenham. He is by far the most important player on this team, which is a testament to his form, but also to the lack of form from the rest of the squad. Dempsey himself mentioned the team being occasionally "jet-lagged" for their away fixtures, as many more players than ever before are playing in Europe. Whatever the issue is, it must be sorted out immediately, because if the Americans don't start playing to a much higher level, they may miss out on the World Cup. While I do believe they will squeak through, temper your expectations.

Result: Bolivia 4-1 Uruguay

What it means: Lowly Bolivia hammered South American champs Uruguay, meaning they have now conceded eleven goals in their last three away fixtures in qualifying. Uruguay are now barely in the qualification places, only because Chile has been just as awful. You do see some shocks in South America but this question re-asks the questions about Uruguay's midfield. We know they have the forwards to compete with anyone but to better their fourth-place finish in the World Cup, they will need to strengthen their defensive strategy. For Bolivia, this is an unlikely lifeline. They are only four points behind with plenty of matches to go. Stranger things have happened.

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