Jimmy’s Soccer Weekly is back with an extensive preview of
this year’s Champions League group stage. Oddsmakers’ favorites for this year’s
competition are Barcelona.
The addition of Neymar makes Barcelona
a nightmare to try and defend against, especially considering how well they
keep possession. However, I don’t consider the Spanish side to be strong
favorites at this point, as their defense is substandard and the midfield
players are starting to show their age. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Chelsea,
PSG and Juventus are only slightly behind. Manchester United, Manchester City,
Borussia Dortmund and Atletico Madrid
are also contenders, and AC Milan are my dark horse contenders to make the
semi-finals. A little Balotelli can go a long way. If I had to choose a winner,
I would pick PSG. If they can bring everything together they are a scary team
to face.
Group A
Participants: Manchester United (ENG, 1st), Shakhtar Donetsk (UKR, 1st),
Bayer Leverkusen
(GER, 3rd), Real Sociedad (ESP, 4th)
Group A presents an interesting challenge for perennial
knockout stage contestant Manchester United. Shakhtar have won the Ukrainian
Premier League each of the past four seasons, as well as seven of the past
nine. They also qualified for last season’s knockout stage by edging out Chelsea in a group that
included Juventus and FC Nordsjaelland. Bayer came in third place in a difficult
Bundesliga and have started off their campaign this season with three wins from
three. Sociedad look very similar to last year’s Malaga
team; they are not a well-known commodity but possess a number of high-quality
players, as they showcased in their easy 4-0 win over Lyon
in qualifying.
United have had trouble with Spanish teams in this
competition and Real Sociedad’s pot 4 ranking and lack of experience do not play
as much of a role as many think. United are the strongest squad in this group
and I expect them to win it, but the games will be very tight. This is one of
the tougher groups they have been given over the past few years, and they must
play very well to go through. Do not anticipate any team in this group winning more
than three games. I like Real to come in second and slightly edge Shakhtar. Shakhtar
lost Fernandinho and Henrikh
Mkhitaryan this summer, but brought in four Brazilians, incuding
young star Bernard from Atletico Miniero. They will be very tough to beat,
especially in Donetsk.
The Spanish side are a sleeper in this tournament and if they can overcome
their general shortage of experience, they will be a dangerous team. Bayer will
be competitive but still resemble a work in progress. They will struggle on
their travels.
Prediction: 1) Manchester United 2) Real Sociedad 3) Shakhtar Donetsk 4)
Bayer Leverkusen
Group B
Participants: Real
Madrid (ESP,
2nd), Juventus (ITA, 1st), Galatasaray (TUR, 1st), FC Copenhagen (DEN, 1st)
Real Madrid
must have been horrified to see Juventus pop up from Pot 2, and Galatasaray is
no cakewalk either. All three sides were in the last eight of last year’s
competition and will fight closely for the two spots in the knockout stage. Copenhagen typically play
better than expected and even qualified for the knockout stages a few years ago
but their odds are very long in this group. The top three sides possess a
wealth of experience that the Danish side will have trouble suppressing.
With the depth and talent in their squad, Real Madrid will
not accept anything less than a knockout stage appearance. I think Juventus are
just as good, and can frustrate Real in the final third. If Real do not show
the tactical discipline they often displayed in Europe
under Jose Mourinho, they could lose top spot in this group to the Italians. The
top spot often avoids some of the stronger teams in the round of 16, and both
sides will be desperate to take it. Galatasaray are a good team but they look
just a bit short here. They were beaten rather routinely by Real in last year’s
knockout stage and Juventus are just as tough. They will not be an easy out,
especially at home, but they would need to be exceptional to escape this group.
Copenhagen have
one of the worst draws in the tournament. There is no safe haven in this group
at all, and while they are far from the worst team in the tournament, the Danes
could wind up with one of the worst goal differences of the group stage.
Prediction: 1)
Real Madrid
2) Juventus 3) Galatasaray 4) FC Copenhagen
Group C
Participants:
Benfica (POR, 2nd), Paris Saint-Germain (FRA,
1st), Olympiakos (GRE, 1st), Anderlecht (BEL,
1st)
Group C is not the most attractive group, but big-spending PSG
will be very happy with this draw. Benfica have been strong for the past few
years but have consistently been in the grade just below elite. Olympiakos have
dominated Greece,
which has been an unknown entity the past few years due to the financial plights
of other big clubs in the country. The Piraeus
side lack any real competition outside of their games on the continent. Anderlecht are the minnows of the group but don’t count
the Belgians completely out.
PSG should breeze through this group – travelling to Portugal and the long ride to Greece will not
be as straightforward but they are simply on a different level than their
opponents. The signing of Edinson Cavani has made a team that lost on away
goals in last year’s quarterfinals an immediate trophy contender. This team
should go a long way in this competition. On the other hand, second place will
be very closely fought for. I give Benfica the edge over Olympiakos because of
their superior attacking play. Benfica have made the Estadio da Luz a stronghold
in recent years, and the Portuguese should see their way through. I don’t
expect it to be pretty – the bottom three sides will likely win two games each at
a maximum. Anderlecht haven’t shown much to suggest they can take enough points
to head through, but they are one of the better Pot 4 sides and will give the
other teams trouble in Belgium.
Prediction: 1) Paris Saint-Germain 2) Benfica 3) Olympiakos 4) Anderlecht
Group D
Participants:
Bayern Munich (GER, 1st), CSKA Moscow (RUS, 1st),
Manchester City (ENG, 2nd), Viktoria Plzen (CZE,
1st)
Defending champions Bayern Munich are stuck facing
high-powered Manchester City in the group stage, while also facing a
difficult trip to Russia
champions CSKA Moscow and an interesting minnow in Czech champions Viktoria
Plzen. City are stuck in Pot 3 after poor displays in Europe
the past two years. Last year they were especially awful, failing to win any of
their six games and earning just three points. CSKA are the spoiler in this
group – this team has been flying under the radar for a long time and no team
likes travelling to Moscow
to play on the artificial surface. Plzen played
in this competition two years ago but were given little chance, as they were
drawn alongside Barcelona,
AC Milan, and BATE Borisov. The odds here are not much greater but the
increased experience should help their results this year.
Bayern are adjusting to the coaching style of Pep Guardiola
and still look like they need work. Last year they were utterly dominant, and
to progress from this group they will need to be on that level. City must
advance in Europe to avoid a crisis. They have
crashed out early in their two seasons and came in last in the group this past
year. City have grown up a bit but there is still much to be desired, but they
avoided a group of death this year and should make it through. CSKA will not be
given much of a chance, but this team is very underrated and I could see them knocking
City out. This is a solid team, and if City do not sort out their defensive
issues, they will be staring at another early exit. Plzen are a decent side but they will only
have a chance to take points at home. Even there, they will only come up with
one or two.
Prediction: 1) Bayern Munich 2) Manchester City
3) CSKA Moscow
4) Viktoria Plzen
Group E
Participants:
Chelsea (ENG, 3rd), Schalke (GER, 4th), FC Basel (SUI, 1st), Steaua Bucharest
(ROU, 1st)
Chelsea received the dream
draw of any of the teams in Pot 1, as Schalke, Basel and Steaua don’t pose too much of a
threat. Chelsea eliminated Steaua in last year’s
Europa League title run despite losing in Romania,
and also took out Basel
in the semi-finals. Schalke were arguably the weakest team in Pot 2 and did not
resemble a strong contender in the playoffs against PAOK. Basel have been playing attractive football
the past few years and it is good to see them back in the Champions League.
Steaua are an interesting team – they are not at the level of the Romanian
powerhouse in the 80’s, but Bucharest
will not be a fun place to travel.
Chelsea
should win this group easily. They’ve demonstrated they are a better side than Basel and Steaua, and
Schalke are not much stronger, if they are at all. Mourinho has led his teams
to four consecutive semi-finals or further, and Chelsea will be a contender for his fifth.
Second place is up in the air – Basel
are my favorites despite being the Pot 3 side, as their style could give
Schalke and Steaua a lot of trouble. I am probably undervaluing Schalke’s
depth, but they have been terrible to start the season and aren’t going to
provide any “big club” fear factor to these teams. I could see any of these
three qualifying from the group with Chelsea,
but the Swiss side are the most likely.
Prediction: 1)
Chelsea 2) FC Basel 3) Schalke 4) Steaua Bucharest
Group F
Participants:
Arsenal (ENG, 4th), Marseille (FRA, 2nd), Borussia Dortmund (GER, 2nd), Napoli (ITA, 2nd)
Arsenal were handed a place in the group of death as they
drew the toughest teams in Pots 3 and 4 in Dortmund
and Napoli. Marseille are no slouch either
after last year’s second place finish in Ligue 1. Dortmund
return after last year’s run to the title game, while Napoli
recorded their best ever finish in Serie A, 2nd place behind Juventus.
Everyone keeps expecting the world to cave in at Arsenal,
but Arsene Wenger continues to keep his head steady and run the club the same
way. Yeah, the club haven’t won anything in eight years but Wenger always has
his side in the Champions League and always gets them into the knockout stage. It’s
difficult to tell sometimes what you are going to get with Arsenal, but their
European play has often overshadowed domestic worries in the early stages of
the competition.
This, however, is not what the Gunners were looking for, as
they find themselves in a group where you can argue they are the worst team.
It’s not extreme at all. Dortmund
are last year’s runners up, and despite losing Gotze and enduring the
Lewandowski saga, they look just as strong. This team is one of the most exciting
to watch on the continent. Napoli was the one
side no team from Pot 1 wanted to see, as their low UEFA coefficient speaks
nothing of their true quality. Marseille finished second in an improving French
league and are off to another good start this year. So, this is far from ideal.
I don’t see a City-like disaster occurring, but without any purchases, Arsenal
are not leaving this group. Napoli could take it – they are very tough at home
and Dortmund
might be focusing a bit more domestically this year. The rivalry with Bayern is
raging more than ever. But really, there is no scenario in this group too
difficult to envision. Every game will be one to watch.
Prediction: 1) Napoli 2) Borussia Dortmund 3) Arsenal 4) Marseille
Group G
Participants: FC
Porto (POR, 1st), Atletico Madrid (ESP, 3rd), Zenit St. Petersburg
(RUS, 2nd), Austria Vienna (AUT, 1st)
Group G is the least flashy of this year’s draw, but
presents an interesting mix. FC Porto are the favorites from Pot 1, but
Atletico had a breakthrough season last year, finishing 3rd in La Liga. Despite
losing Falcao, Atletico should be an attractive side this year. Zenit have been
strong for the past few years too, and a young side is starting to evolve into
a more consistent team. Austria Vienna are the competition’s minnows, but this is
a favorable draw for them. None of these sides will blow away the Austrians and
with the right tactical adjustments, they may just have a chance.
This group reminds me quite a bit of Group G two years ago,
which unknown Pot 4 minnows APOEL won their group when facing Porto,
Zenit, and Shakhtar. Vienna
have a similar task here, and while I don’t expect much from them, the
opportunity is there. Atletico are a better side than Shakhtar was and will be
favorites to win the group, but they will not be too pleased with these
opponents. Porto won the Portuguese league
again last year and are always tough at home. Zenit added some experience to
their squad this offseason and have consistently underachieved at this level.
Is this their year to break out? I don’t see it at this point, and unless Porto lose a couple of players in the transfer window
they should be through.
Prediction: 1) Atletico Madrid 2) FC
Porto 3) Zenit St. Petersburg
4) Austria Vienna
Group H
Participants: FC
Barcelona (ESP, 1st), AC Milan (ITA, 3rd), Ajax (NED, 1st), Celtic (SCO, 1st)
Group H features sides very familiar with each other. This
group features four clubs who have all won the European Cup. Barcelona
and AC Milan will meet for the seventh and eighth times in the last three years,
while Celtic and Barcelona
meet in the group stage for the second consecutive year. Despite the historic
legacies of all four clubs, it will likely be Ajax and Celtic left fighting for scraps in
this group.
I know, what about Celtic’s play against Barcelona last year? It can’t be ignored, as
they narrowly lost 2-1 on an injury-time goal at the Nou Camp and beat Catalans
2-1 at Celtic Park. I watched those games in delight
and the atmosphere was magical at Celtic
Park. However, they sold
Victor Wanyama and Gary Hooper this offseason and were very unimpressive in
qualifying. Wins are wins, and the dramatic comeback against Shakhter Karagandy
shook Celtic Park
to its foundation, but I can’t see a repeat performance against Barcelona. The quality
isn’t there this year and the Scottish league is not going to keep them sharp. Ajax have been handed
tough groups in recent years and this is another one you can’t really see them
progressing from. Milan and Barcelona will attract all of the attention
in this group, and as shown last year, if you forget about the lower seeded
teams, they can beat you. But expect the two rivals to march through together.
Prediction: 1) FC
Barcelona 2) AC Milan 3) Ajax
4) Celtic
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