The quarterfinals went largely as anticipated - Barcelona shrugged off a rugged PSG side on away goals, Real cruised through against Gala, Dortmund used a late miracle to squeak by Malaga, and Bayern hammered an overmatched Juventus side. The semi-final draw avoided the El Clasico matchup, and pitted the top two sides in the Bundesliga, Bayern and Dortmund, against the top two sides in La Liga, Barcelona and Real Madrid.
BAYERN MUNICH v BARCELONA
What to watch for: Which midfield takes control of the game. Barcelona have used their possession game to win two European cups in the last four years, while Bayern have displayed a ruthless attacking style this year, clinching the Bundesliga in record time. Bayern have the better attacking pieces but if they do not have service they cannot score, and Barca always does a good job of taking away that service. Bayern are also superior in the defensive end, conceding nothing against a Juventus team full of attacking options. Barcelona have long covered up their weaker defense with their pressure in midfield, so Bayern will be looking to push the ball towards the back four as much as possible.
History: These sides last met competitively in 2009 - also in the Champions League knockout stage. Barcelona took the first leg 4-0 at the Nou Camp, while the second leg in Munich ended in a 1-1 draw.
Who will win: Bayern Munich. Bayern are in impeccable form, and with their focus fully turned to European football, I expect a strong performance at the Allianz Arena and their year-long road form to continue. Barcelona don't look as strong in Europe this year - they were tested by both AC Milan and PSG, who are solid teams, but vintage Barca would be expected to come away with simpler victories. They were thoroughly outplayed by PSG at home, and they failed to win the away leg in either of their last two ties. Bayern were poor at home against Arsenal, which we can mostly attribute to complacency with the 3-1 lead, and they were solid against Juve. The semi-finals have been the stage for Barca to fall and with Messi not playing at 100%, it becomes easier to see Bayern casting them aside. If the Bavarians establish an advantage in the first leg, look for them to be playing in London in May.
Prediction: Bayern 2-0 Barcelona, Barcelona 2-1 Bayern (Bayern 3-2 Aggregate)
BORUSSIA DORTMUND v REAL MADRID
What to watch for: Can Dortmund do it again? These two sides already played an aggregate-type matchup this year in the group stage, with Dortmund winning 2-1 in Germany and the sides playing to a 2-2 draw in Spain. Dortmund have already proven they can beat Madrid so there will be no fear, whereas Madrid will not underestimate their opponents having already lost out on first place during the group stage. There may not be a greater tactician than Jose Mourinho, and with the past defeats in mind, he should be up for the challenge.
Lack of motivation: Both sides are domestically far behind the two sides contesting the other semifinal, so full focus will be on the European tie. Real have the final of the Copa del Rey to look forward to in May, while Dortmund were eliminated in the DFB-Pokal by Bayern.
Who will win: Real Madrid. You could argue Real have been the most consistent team in this competition so far - their only weakness has been Dortmund. In the two games against their German opponents, Real looked unsettled and Dortmund's attacking trio were quite the threat. I expect them to be a threat in this tie too, but look for Real to be more prepared defensively. Real fell at this stage to Bayern last year and will be looking to reach their first final since 2002, and with Jose Mourinho likely leaving this summer, he will want to finish his Real tenure with an appearance in the final. Expect plenty of attacking football, but with more experience on the field and in the dugout for Real, Madrid should be playing in this year's final. Dortmund struggled against Malaga in the last round and I see them struggling to finish chances again. If they can keep this core together, they could win this competition - this year seems a bit early.
Prediction: Dortmund 1-1 Real Madrid, Real Madrid 3-1 Dortmund (Real Madrid 4-2 Aggregate)
I am sticking with Real as I have from the beginning of the season - but these matches are guaranteed to be classic. All four teams could be argued as the best in Europe and we should see good displays and goals. Enjoy!
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