It isn’t El
Clasico, but it may be even better. Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will play
a Madrid derby in Lisbon, and will give Spain its second European champion of
the year (Sevilla won the Europa League). Both clubs won their semi-final
matchups with a curious lack of drama, winning by a combined score of 7-1 in
the second legs of the ties, which were played on the road. Really impressive play from both teams, as the last
two European champions, Bayern Munich and Chelsea, were swiftly sent packing.
La Liga’s race came right down to the wire, with all
three top clubs stuttering multiple times, but it was Atletico who came out on
top, with Diego Godin’s goal securing a 1-1 draw at the Camp Nou. It's a
deserved and long-awaited triumph for Atletico, whose defensive prowess reigned
in a typically offensive league. I think Real counted themselves out of the
league too early and focused squarely on 'La Decima.' Obviously, that is not a
bad thing because they are in the final, but they really blew the title this
year despite being given so many chances to come back into the race. We will
see if their lack of attention in the league pays off with a victory in Lisbon.
When: May 24, 2:45 ET
Injuries
& Suspensions: There are a number of notable players
in this category. Xabi Alonso picked up a yellow card with Real leading 4-0 on
aggregate in Munich, and now he will miss the final. It’s a shame that players
must miss the final for yellow card accumulation, but there is no better way to
implement the rule, and he really should have known better in that situation.
He is perhaps Real’s most important player, and they will feel his absence.
Diego Costa has a hamstring problem for which he
underwent surgery for last Monday, while Cristiano Ronaldo has a groin issue,
and he has not played since May 7. These are massive attacking players for each
side, and while both have adequate alternatives, these two are irreplaceable.
They are both making the trip to Lisbon, and Ronaldo seems to be the healthier
of the two, but it remains to be seen. If Atletico are missing Costa, Diego
Simeone will likely turn to David Villa, while Carlo Ancelotti would turn to
Gareth Bale to fill in for Ronaldo.
Real have other concerns at both the front and the
back, as Karim Benzema and Pepe are questionable to play. If either are unable
to play, it presents a big problem for Los Blancos. Without Benzema (and a
hobbled Ronaldo) Real will not have a focal point to their attack. While Pepe
may have an erratic history, he has been fantastic in the Champions League this
year, and they will already be missing cover in midfield due to Xabi’s absence.
While I hope the injured players are able to play, it would be interesting to
see how Ancelotti would set up the side without either or both of those two
players. Lastly, Arda Turan is also racing to be fit for the contest for
Atletico. He was a constant threat against Chelsea and provides plenty of
service to Costa. He is a major part of Atletico’s passing play in the final
third, and after picking up an injury against Barca, it will be a close call.
Prior
Meetings: This season, the sides played four times – twice
in La Liga and twice in the Copa Del Rey semi-finals. Atletico won 1-0 at the
Bernabeu and the sides drew 2-2 at the Vicente Calderon in La Liga, while Real
won 3-0 at home and 2-0 away in the Copa. The 2-0 loss for Atletico was played
without the likes of Diego Costa, Diego Godin, Arda Turan and Adrian, but it
was a convincing response from Real nonetheless following their string of poor
results against the Rojiblancos.
Verdict:
There is as much uncertainty in this final as I can remember – there are injury
questions piled on to the fact that it’s a Madrid derby, and derbies are nearly
unpredictable. Real dominated Atletico under Jose Mourinho, but now Diego
Simeone’s crew has been getting the better of their wealthier neighbors. The
pressure is squarely on Real – this has been a long-awaited moment for their
fan base, and a loss to Atletico would be very painful to swallow. It’s surely
a match Atletico want to win, but having won La Liga, they have surpassed
everyone’s expectations by a long, long way.
It’s hard to even pick who the favorite should be.
Atletico won the league, but Real have performed admirably against high-level
competition, while tripping up on some of the lower hurdles. The match is close
by in Portugal, so there’s no site advantage. Carlo Ancelotti has more
experience at this level and has already won two Champions League crowns with AC
Milan, but Diego Simeone has proved himself to be one of the best coaches is
the game today with his team’s achievements this season. Real have superior
attacking depth, but Atletico have a sturdier defense and one of the best
goalkeepers in the world, Thibault Courtois. Real has a slightly better
midfield, but they will not have Xabi, so I think that advantage swings to
Atletico. The point is, there’s no distinguishing these two sides.
Weighing in all the
factors, I think Atletico wins
if Costa plays and Real is missing any of Ronaldo, Pepe, or Benzema. If
Ancelotti has all of those players at his disposal, I think Los Blancos
take La
Decima. My reasoning – with Xabi already out of the lineup, if Real are
missing
a forward, or another important defender, Atletico will have a major
advantage, as Ancelotti will be using someone he hasn't featured often.
Atletico have won without Costa before, but I don’t see them doing it on
this
stage against a team that has been gearing for this game for the last
month. I
don’t believe in the “meant to be” type outlook on this match for Real –
they
have superior individual players and in what could be a very tight game,
one
moment of brilliance could make the difference. Between Ronaldo, Bale,
Di
Maria, Modric, etc. there are depths of brilliance. It looks like
Ronaldo will play and don't be surprised to see him become the man of
the moment. It should be a very tight match, and I will take Real to
produce that one Zidane-esque moment to take La Decima.
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