UEFA Champions League: Semifinal Preview

Once again, Spain continues to place its stamp on European competition. Two Spanish clubs find their place in the semifinals of the Champions League, while Sevilla and Valencia face off in the Europa League. England, Germany, Italy and Portugal each have just one representative left in European competition. It’s difficult to determine which domestic league is the best, but by this criterion, La Liga is clearly supreme. I think it’s difficult to definitively say that it is, just because the league has been dominated so thoroughly by Real Madrid and Barcelona over the last decade, and when you look at the overall depth of the league, it starts to run dry after third or fourth place most years. This year, it is nearly indisputable that La Liga has been the best – Atletico has been a positive surprise, and Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal and Real Sociedad are all solid teams. While the Premier League has been regarded recently as the best in the world because of the massive investment and increasing parity from top to bottom, the quality of Spanish football must be recognized. Great strides have been made in Spain this year, but will any Spanish sides come home with European silverware?  

Semifinal matchups:

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Real Madrid – Bayern Munich

A true matchup of world football giants, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich meet for the second time in three years in the Champions League semifinals. Two years ago, it was Bayern who took a 2-1 lead in the first leg in Munich through a last-minute strike from Mario Gomez, but Real replied with two early goals at the Bernabeu, only for Bayern to equalize from the spot. It was the spot that decided the tie, as three of Real’s four penalty takers missed (including a horrific effort from Sergio Ramos) and Bayern won the shootout, 3-1. Overall it was a very even tie, and with many of the big names still playing a starting role in the sides, I expect another even tilt.

One thing that has changed is the coaching staffs at each club. That matchup in 2012 featured Chelsea’s Jose Mourinho at Real, with retired treble winner Jupp Heynckes at Bayern. Carlo Ancelotti leads Madrid now, while former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola has taken charge at Bayern. Both coaches have considerable experience at this level, as they, along with Mourinho, are vying to become the second coach in history to win three Champions League crowns. 

I think this tie favors Bayern Munich, but they will have a huge advantage if Ronaldo’s injury affects his play, or prevents him from playing altogether. It would be difficult to see him missing the match entirely, but players vary on their ability to play through injury. Ronaldo is the best player remaining in the competition, and if Real are to make the final, he will have to be the catalyst. Bayern’s defense has been anything but convincing, and while Guardiola has always been known for his attacking prowess rather than building an organized defense, they still have a sizeable advantage over Madrid. Mistake-prone players like Sergio Ramos and Pepe still play significant minutes at the heart of Real’s defense, and their showing in Dortmund will be met with similar punishment if they repeat that performance against the Bavarians. Speaking of Dortmund, they waxed a full-strength Bayern 3-0 in Munich last weekend. Neither side looks all that intimidating in the defensive third. 

I like Bayern in this matchup because I think they provide more ways to break you down. Madrid have a wealth of attacking players, and Gareth Bale has come into form during the second half of the season, but I don’t know how much they will trouble Bayern if Ronaldo is not playing at full strength. They are used to having a lion's share of the ball, and they won't against Bayern. Both sides conceded two goals in the last round – Bayern gave up a magnificent header to Nemanja Vidic off of a corner, and a rocket to Patrice Evra from open play, while Real produced an awful back header and a giveaway in midfield. My point is that Bayern are less mistake-prone at the back and have more solidity in their game plan than Real does. With more of the ball, and likely more of the chances, I see Bayern making their third straight finals appearance.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2 – 3 Bayern Munich (2 – 1 H, 0 – 2 A)

Atletico Madrid – Chelsea

Atletico Madrid has been nothing short of outstanding under Diego Simeone. He has already won the Europa League, UEFA Super Cup (against Chelsea) and Copa Del Rey since joining the club in December 2011. It’s also worth noting that despite their success, they’ve had several stars join other clubs (Sergio Aguero, Diego Forlan, Falcao as a few examples) and they have been in financial trouble for years. Chelsea haven’t had any financial issues since Roman Abramovich bought the club, and despite Mourinho’s best efforts to lower expectations for the season, the club found itself in the thick of the Premier League title race for much of the year and now competing in the semi-finals of the European Cup.

The clubs have faced one another three times in the last five years; twice in the group stage of the 2009-10 UEFA Champions League, and in the 2012 UEFA Super Cup in Monaco. Chelsea won 4-0 at Stamford Bridge, while the teams drew 2-2 in Madrid. The Super Cup was won decisively by Atletico, a 4-1 drubbing coming courtesy of a first-half Falcao hat-trick. With these sides, I would not put much stock into the past results – some of Chelsea’s longest-tenured players are still around but hardly any of Atletico’s are. Mourinho only lost to Atletico once in his three years at Real – it was his last game, the final of last year’s Copa Del Rey, with Atletico winning 2-1. All six La Liga games were won by Real, with the aggregate score 16:4. 

While Chelsea showed their typical character in grinding out the result against PSG, they have to play a lot better to get through this tie. Atletico suffocated Barcelona’s attacking front with surprising ease, and have conceded just once in each knockout round tie. With the opportunities Atletico has been creating all season, and the improving health of Diego Costa, I don’t see one goal being good enough for Chelsea to move on to the final. Samuel Eto'o will not play in Madrid, meaning it will be up to Fernando Torres or Demba Ba to lead the lines away from home.

This tie will likely be won at the Vicente Calderon. Atletico have conceded just nine goals in 17 home games in La Liga this season – a very similar record to PSG’s. The difference is La Liga is one of the top three leagues on the globe. It’s going to be very difficult for Chelsea to create chances with the way Atletico pressure them, and if Eden Hazard is forced to miss the first leg, Chelsea will be short of attacking options. Diego Godin and Miranda are going to be hot commodities this off season, and with Atletico normally looking to take profits on players, they could easily be moving on this summer. But this defensive unit, along with Chelsea loanee Thibault Courtois, has been one of the best in Europe in recent years.

Does Chelsea's loss against Sunderland have any effect on this tie? I'm not sure. In one sense, it allows them to focus squarely on European competition, but losing at home to the team at the bottom of the table can never be seen as a positive. I think they will be sluggish early in Madrid, but they have more than enough quality and experience to steady themselves. This is going to be another dead-even tie, but I give Chelsea the edge because I think they match up well with Atletico's attack and displayed a suffocating home advantage in the quarterfinals. I don't expect them to be in as deep of a hole this time around. Don't expect many goals either - both coaches will be happy to grind this one out.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Chelsea (1 – 1 H, 0 – 1 A)