Why Brazil Will Win This Summer's World Cup

International soccer has undergone a major power shift over the last two decades. Whereas South American teams, primarily Brazil and Argentina, had dominated the trophy cases over the first fifty or so years of World Cup play, European teams have elevated themselves during the last four World Cups. Brazil or Argentina won the World Cup every other tournament from 1962-1994, with only West Germany keeping up with their levels of success. But France's 3-0 win over Brazil in the '98 Final has started a run where European teams have won three of the last four, while also occupying ten of the possible twelve top-3 places. A power shift has certainly taken place, and Spain, Germany, Italy, France and Holland all have high expectations for this year's version.

So why am I so convinced Brazil will win this summer's event? Here's three reasons:

1) History of Hosts' Success

There have been nineteen World Cups. Six hosts have become champions, one a runner-up (famously Brazil in 1950) and five have reached the semi-finals. France, Switzerland, Mexico (twice), Spain, the United States, and South Africa are the hosts who did not reach the semi-finals. Of those, only France and Spain have been major powers in the sport, and those World Cups were in 1938 and 1982, when neither was as strong as they are today. There has been a clear advantage to hosting the event, and while some people see the hosts as under more pressure for this tournament, I see it as a massive boost to their chances. If you watched the Confederations Cup Final between Brazil and Spain, you could hear the crowd for all ninety minutes and see how their energy boosted the home side.

2) Lack of European Success Outside of Europe

I would say that European sides have the highest pedigree after Brazil. Until 2010, a European team had never won a World Cup outside of Europe. Spain was the first team to accomplish that feat, defeating the Netherlands in the final. Brazil has won World Cups on South America, North America, Europe and Asia. They travel incredibly well and have always had one of the talented squads, while European teams have not been able to replicate their brilliance at home when they go abroad. In the Confederations Cup, the team that gave Brazil the most trouble was Uruguay, a South American team. They had little trouble against Spain or Italy, scoring seven goals in the two games.

3) Brazil is the Best Team in the World

In most sports, the rankings that are put out tell a close picture of how teams stack up against one another. I've ranted before about the FIFA rankings because they're utterly useless. Brazil didn't play in qualifiers because they were hosting the World Cup, so they were ranked around 10 for the last year or so. Complete joke. The goalie position is somewhat concerning, as Julio Cesar has not faced top level competition in the last year, but the squad in front of him is stacked. Marcelo and Thiago Silva will anchor the back while big midfielders like Fernandinho will provide support behind quick playmakers like Willian. Neymar, Hulk and Fred provide three different styles for defenses to deal with. The fact that players like Filipe Luis, Miranda, Lucas Moura and Robinho did not make this squad tells you of the talent level. It's unrivaled.

So who can beat Brazil? For me, there's two teams who have a shot.

Argentina -  Brazil's biggest rival has quite a bit of fire power themselves. In Lionel Messi, Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain, and Ezequiel Lavezzi, Argentina has the best attacking options in the tournament. They also will have Angel Di Maria on the wing - he was perhaps Real Madrid's best player in the Champions League Final. I have a lot of questions about their aging defense and goalie position, and I don't think their midfield can keep pace with Brazil's rampant, physical bunch. I give them the best chance to beat Brazil because you just never know what will happen when rivals face one another.

Uruguay - Yes, I don't like a team from Europe can knock off Brazil. Uruguay defeated Brazil in the 1950 World Cup Final to send the entire home crowd into a state of shock. You can bet many Brazilians remember that day, and would be devastated if they fell to their neighbors again. They were fantastic in 2010 and don't really have a weakness. They have a very balanced team and while they don't have as bunch depth in talent, they have elite players like Diego Godin and Luis Suarez (if he's healthy). And don't sleep on Cavani or Forlan either. I think their success will be somewhat tied to Suarez's health, but they gave Brazil all they could handle last year.

If Brazil loses, it is almost certainly going to be a self-capitulation. But stranger things have happened. My other random thoughts for this year's World Cup:

Spain and/or Germany will not make it through their group. Germany has an injury-depleted midfield (they have attacking midfielders but little depth in holding players) while Spain's aging midfield was poor down the stretch. Don't be shocked... Ivory Coast should win Group C. They're the epitome of "they'll do it next time" but with no Falcao for Colombia, they are the best team by some distance... England finishes in last in Group D. They match up poorly with Italy in their first game and then face Uruguay. Costa Rica is better than a lot of people think. England has questions all over the field... France could make a run to the semi finals. They have an easy group and face the second-weakest group in the round of 16. After 2010's debacle, the French are trying to erase bad memories... I like Belgium, but I don't see them going very far. They are young and didn't face very stiff competition in qualifying, other than from Croatia. If Eden Hazard takes over games like he did for Chelsea, they could be a not-so-secret sleeper, but they are more likely to hit a roadblock early.