Wednesday, December 23, 2015

The Story Behind the Fall of Chelsea FC

As a Chelsea fan, I love Jose Mourinho. I still do. His return to the club was supposed to set up a period of stability for a club that, although successful, has experienced turbulence and a great amount of turnover in personnel.

Well.. not so much. Mourinho’s departure paves the way for yet another interim manager, Guus Hiddink, and yet another period of uncertainty for the club. This time, the interim manager has a legitimate hole to dig out of, as opposed to other managers, whom were simply the next man up when owner Roman Abramovich became impatient.

Chelsea are in 15th place. They are just three points above the relegation zone. The team probably overachieved last year when it won the Premier League, but this is a disgrace. I feel for Mourinho because he tried everything. Perhaps it was the success from last year, the issues with the team doctors, or the poor early results – but what transpired was a swooning spiral into 15th place.

I place a large amount of blame on Cesc Fabregas. It is clear that Fabregas has a problem with Mourinho, and although he was typically matter-of-fact with the press, and publically paid tribute to the manager after his departure, I don’t believe him. He’s lying.

When Mourinho was at Real Madrid, he benched Iker Casillas, the famed Spanish goalkeeper and poster boy of Real Madrid. He benched Casillas because he wasn’t the best goalkeeper on the team. It did not go well. Casillas was visibly upset, and Mourinho eventually left the club. Casillas did as well, because Mourinho was right – Casillas no longer should be starting for a club that is aspiring to win all trophies like Real Madrid. As a club legend, Casillas felt he was owed something, something that was not given to him when Mourinho put him on the bench.

Fabregas was taken off at halftime after a poor showing against West Ham, and subsequently benched against Liverpool. Chelsea lost both games. He was taken off, and benched, because he was playing pathetically and with little effort. If there is one thing Mourinho will not put up with, it's a lack of effort on the defensive side. Rumors started to surface of locker room tensions, and many were tied to Fabregas. He denied them, and although his words were direct, the tone was not. At this point, things at Chelsea started to take a real turn for the worse. More recently, rumors spread that Chelsea team information was leaked before their crucial tie against FC Porto. Guess who was sitting on the bench – Fabregas. Hmm..

It really seems like Fabregas, and the other Spanish players in the squad, decided they’d had enough of Mourinho. Spain won three international tournaments in a row – they did so by playing possession football and playing through the midfield. Mourinho’s style of play could not be more opposite – he demands you cover as a winger, and the general style is counterattacking, not possession. What you have here is a classic case of the players believing they are better than the manager.

Fabregas has been terrible all year. His typically smooth passing has been non-existent, which has rendered him a liability in midfield because he’s never been a good defender. Diego Costa came into training overweight, by his own admission, and has spent more time this season trying to instigate opposing defenders than actually getting around them. Yeah, it was funny when he got Gabriel to bite against Arsenal, but it’s not funny when you’re losing more than half of the games you play because the striker isn’t in the right position. His spoiled demeanor was evident when, although being the last member of the squad to be dropped, he threw his warmup bib at Mourinho after not being played against Tottenham. Costa has scored three goals this season – I don’t think anyone can see the crying as justified.

The two other Spanish members of the squad are different stories. Pedro came over from Barcelona over the summer and he just hasn’t been very good. I don’t question his effort, but his overall play has been poor. I thought he was a good bargain but it just hasn't worked out. It happens. Azpilicueta, on the other hand, has been horrible. The goal he gave up to Riyad Mahrez last Monday was laughable. Yeah, it was a nice move by Mahrez, but if you basically get out of the way of an in-form striker when he shoots from six yards out, what do you think will happen? I’ve always thought Azpilicueta was a hard worker, and that makes his recent lack of effort that much more noticeable. He isn’t trying, and neither are Fabregas and Costa. When three members of an eleven-man team, with one in each line of the formation, aren’t giving their full effort, what you get is a 15th placed team.

It isn’t only on the Spanish players. Eden Hazard has yet to score in the Premier League after legitimate comparisons were made between him and Cristiano Ronaldo last year. I think he just got sick of Mourinho telling him to track back, and when Fabregas started the trouble, he joined in. Hazard’s hip injury exit from Monday’s game in Leicester was dubious – you could tell by Mourinho’s tone that he didn’t really believe him. I doubt he’s really injured. When Mourinho said he was “betrayed” – look no further.

Mourinho is not without blame. Clearly, his style is to be authoritative, and he has a “my way or the highway” personality. In a lot of ways, this is a good characteristic for a football manager, because the squad must believe in the game plan or it will fail. He’s arrogant. He berates officials, managers, players, everyone he can. But who doesn’t? He’s always been in the spotlight because of his straight-shooting philosophy and his great successes. Mourinho is a top manager whether the Chelsea players see it that way or not.  

It’s hard to believe, but this Chelsea squad has too many primadonnas – more than Real Madrid – to succeed under Mourinho. The Spanish players are too arrogant from all of their international successes. Hazard does not want to defend like a winger, only attack. No matter how talented, a disjointed team cannot win a tough league like the Premier League. They can’t even beat a dreadful team like AFC Bournemouth. Although neither could Manchester United..

What should Chelsea do? It’s going to be difficult to attract a top manager before the end of the year, but Guus Hiddink isn’t a bad option for an interim coach. In January, they need to sign a striker who is a poacher – someone who is going to run into the six-yard box and finish from close. They will not get relegated, but a top-four finish is nearly impossible, so the season is lost. If they can somehow gather form by February, PSG awaits in the Champions League. It’s unlikely they will win that matchup – so it’s time to rebuild.

Step 1 – Remove Fabregas, Costa and Azpilicueta from the team. Sell Eden Hazard to Real Madrid.
Step 2 – Find a coach with an established pedigree at a top club, but also one that fits English football. While I would not be upset if Chelsea wound up with Pep Guardiola next year, I don’t think his style really fits the Premier League. Diego Simeone would be a great coach for the team. They need a motivator.
Step 3 – Give the youth players time to play. Once Chelsea are in a safer position in the table, bench all of the above players and play some of the promising youth players, such as Bertrand Traore and Ruben Loftus-Cheek. Show the players that they are not bigger than the club, and allow the talented youth to shine on the big stage. 

Jose Mourinho does not have a reputation to rebuild. These players do. Clearly, they will play better after his departure because they decided they were sick of him. In football, it’s much easier to fire one coach versus eleven players. Cesc Fabregas is impossible to root for as a Chelsea fan. He needs to go immediately. The rest of the players – their pride (in Mou’s words) is on the line for the rest of the year – to prove they are the world class players they pretended to be last year. Until some change occurs, the Chelsea players are right where they belong – 15th place.

Monday, October 19, 2015

Weekly Ranks 10/19 - PSG/Real Madrid, Manchester Derby on Deck

Rankings

  1. Bayern Munich
  2. Barcelona
  3. Real Madrid
  4. Paris Saint-Germain
  5. Manchester City
  6. Atletico Madrid
  7. Borussia Dortmund
  8. Juventus
  9. Chelsea
  10. Arsenal
  11. AS Roma
  12. Manchester United
  13. Zenit St. Petersburg
  14. FC Porto
  15. Benfica
  16. Vfl Wolfsburg
  17. Celta Vigo
  18. Napoli
  19. Fiorentina
  20. CSKA Moscow

Out: Villarreal
In: Napoli

News:

Bayern Munich made it nine-for-nine in the Bundesliga to maintain a seven-point lead over Dortmund. Bayern has a ridiculous +25 goal differential.. Barcelona got back on track with a 5-2 win over Rayo. Neymar isn't quite Robert Lewandowski, but did manage four goals on Sunday. He's doing his best to replace Messi, and I don't think Barca will fall off too much without the world's best player.. Celta Vigo maintained their surge, now second in La Liga after picking up a win at previous leaders Villarreal.  They are now joint top with Real Madrid and Barcelona. I'm not a believer quite yet. Real might not be as flashy of a team this year, but defensively, Rafa has the team in top form. They've conceded just two goals over eight games in a league that averaged 2.66 per game last year, second highest in the top-five leagues.. All four English teams in the rankings recorded wins last weekend, with Manchester United most impressive in a dominating win at Everton. The other three sides played very weak opposition, and each won easily. The Premier League is shaping up to be a bit more lopsided than usual this year.. Napoli joins the rankings after defeating Serie A leaders Fiorentina 2-1, cutting the gap between the two sides to three points. That's four wins out of five in the league for Napoli, who have recorded two additional wins the Europa League over that span.. Juventus looked better against Inter but could not defeat their rivals, drawing 0-0. I'm still waiting for Juve to turn it around, and there's still plenty of time. Maybe success in Europe will get the team going.. The Portuguese league was off this week.

Games to Watch:

Tuesday: Champions League action features Arsenal hosting Bayern Munich and Dynamo Kiev welcoming Chelsea. Arsenal dropped their first two contests and now face the unenviable task of defeating the German side to try and kick-start their European campaign. Bayern haven't lost since the Super Cup against Wolfsburg in August. They've also won their last two trips to the Emirates, 2-0 and 3-1, during first-leg matches in the Champions League. It's hard to see Arsenal breathing life into their hopes of progressing. Chelsea hardly proved they were back on Saturday despite a 2-0 win over Aston Villa, and face a long trip to Ukraine to face current Group G leaders Dynamo. Dynamo were just beaten 3-0 against arch-rivals Shakhtar, who jumped them into first in the Ukrainian Premier League. It's hard to predict what Chelsea team will show up in Kiev, and a loss would be very damaging for their chances of progression. With Eden Hazard likely returning to the side, I expect a strong performance from the Blues in Ukraine. 

Wednesday: A true titanic matchup in Group A takes place, with PSG hosting Real Madrid, and Real one goal ahead of their hosts through two games. Real have been superb defensively and will be a stern test for PSG, who have been rolling through Ligue 1. This is a statement game for the French side they are not tested in the league very often and have spent the money to be among Europe's elite. Despite the talents of Cristiano Ronaldo and Zlatan Ibrahimovic being on display, I expect a tight, low-scoring game in Paris, with a slight edge to the home side. CSKA Moscow take on Manchester United with all four teams in Group B recording a win and loss in their first two games. All four are even in goal difference as well. Moscow is the site of United's 2008 Champions League triumph, and they won their last visit in 2009, defeating CSKA 1-0. It should be a good contest with a lot of goals CSKA are leading the Russian Premier League and can keep up with United's pace. A win for United would put them in pole position to progress.

Saturday: League action is highlighted by Celta Vigo – Real Madrid. After defeating Barcelona 4-1 earlier this season, Celta could make a serious statement to the rest of the league by getting a positive result against Real. Real's goal differential is a bit inflated after a two-game stretch where they recorded 11 goals, but Ronaldo is still maintaining a healthy scoring pace. Celta would deserve a place in the top fifteen with a victory, while Real could close what has been a growing gap between Bayern Munich and the rest of the continent. It's hard to trust Celta with so few games played, but I expect them to give Real some issues.

Sunday: The top two sides in the Premier League clash in Manchester - United get the first shot at City at Old Trafford.  United halted a three-game home losing streak against City with a resounding 4-2 win last season. City have won four of six overall against United and lead them by two points. The Manchester derbies have been must-watch games over the last few seasons, and with both sides near the top of the league again, it should be another classic matchup. Wilfried Bony did a good job last week replacing Sergio Aguero, and City's title challenge this season could depend on his ability to produce until he returns. City are the better team overall, but you never know in these sort of games. Complete toss-up.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Weekly Rankings 10/12 - Germany Tops International Ranks; Netherlands Disappoints

Rankings

  1. Germany
  2. Chile
  3. Argentina
  4. Spain
  5. Belgium
  6. France
  7. Portugal
  8. Colombia
  9. Austria
  10. Brazil
  11. Italy
  12. Uruguay
  13. England
  14. Poland
  15. Côte d'Ivoire
  16. Wales
  17. Iceland
  18. Croatia
  19. Ghana
  20. Netherlands

Terms:

AFC – Asian soccer federation
CAF – African soccer federation
CONCACAF – North American soccer federation
CONMEBOL – South American soccer federation
UEFA – European soccer federation

News:

Let me first mention that FIFA’s actual “rankings” are ridiculous (perhaps a good representative of the organization itself). To summarize, they don’t take into account teams who are hosting major tournaments, and place way too much emphasis on meaningless qualifying games. If you’re looking at the official rankings and wondering why Wales is 8th and France is 22nd, there’s your answer..  No team from CONCACAF makes my rankings. The United States used to be worthy, but their Gold Cup performance was just plain awful. You could see the loss to Mexico coming – the team doesn’t deserve a place in the Confederations Cup, and you aren’t a top-20 team if you lose to Jamaica in a big game. Mexico is still a mess, despite the win. Costa Rica is the only other possible candidate – they too were poor in the Gold Cup. Years of corruption in the FIFA hierarchy (i.e. Jack Warner) has made headlines, but its effect on stunting the growth of CONCACAF is clear.. Not willing to give any team from AFC a spot either. Australia and Japan have been the best two teams in the region for quite some time, but neither made any kind of dent at the World Cup last year. South Korea also failed to make an impact, and with Iran rounding out the region’s qualifiers, the results were four last-place finishes for AFC.  It’s an area lacking in star power and depth. Asia has some of the worst teams in the world despite having massive populations, as countries like India and China are pathetic on the field. There is the most room for growth in AFC, but it hasn’t even begun its liftoff yet.

European qualifiers are nearly concluded, with only tomorrow’s matches remaining. I wrote previously about how the expansion from a 16-team final tournament to 24 teams would raise the quality of play in qualifying matches (10/14: New European Qualifying Structure Paying Quick Dividends), and the results are quite staggering. Iceland, Northern Ireland, Wales, Albania and Slovakia all qualified for their first-ever tournament, while Austria also qualified for the first time (they were co-hosts in 2008, and were automatically in). There are six pots to rank teams from best to worst, and Wales came from Pot 4, while Iceland, Northern Ireland and Albania came from Pot 5. For reference, 2012 qualifying’s lowest-ranked team to qualify was Ireland, who was in Pot 3. The last team to qualify from the fourth pot or lower was Latvia in 2004, when there were only five pots. Granted, more spots in the finals means more opportunities for lower-ranked nations, but the expansion of the Euros has not only improved competitiveness, but allowed football to grow more quickly and gain more attention in smaller countries. The move has been a clear bright spot during a dark, turbulent period for UEFA and FIFA.

As for the rankings, World Champions Germany top the list, just as their counterparts Bayern Munich do for the club rankings. Last week’s loss to Ireland was a black mark, certainly, but given the busy club schedules at this time and the cushion Germany had in Group D, it was forgivable. There is no deeper team in the world – Germany’s “B” team would likely be a top-15 side. They will be favorites next summer to win Euro 2016.. Chile logged an impressive win over Brazil to take the initiative in CONMEBOL qualifying. This should not come as a surprise, despite it being Chile’s first win over their counterparts in fifteen years. Brazil will be better when Neymar returns; for now, they are barely a top-10 side.. Argentina played horribly in a 2-0 defeat to Ecuador and lost Sergio Aguero in the process. Sadly, at this point we must expect Aguero to get hurt because it seems to happen so frequently. He should miss over a month of play this time. Despite the poor performance, Argentina will be fine without him – it is a much greater concern for Manchester City.

Winners from Euro qualifiers? The United Kingdom and Ireland, which could see four of their five teams in France next summer. England, Northern Ireland and Wales are already qualified, while Ireland head to the playoffs. Only Scotland will certainly miss out, as a loss in Georgia proved a fateful blow to their campaign. Wales are certainly not as good as their lofty FIFA ranking, but Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey could take the team a long way. The Welsh could make some noise in France. England are good, of course, but not great. More of the same should be expected.. Austria have been one of the shining stars of qualifying. Seemingly packed with expectation year after year, the young Austrian side finally came through, winning Group G easily while dropping just two points in a home draw with Sweden. Full of crafty midfielders, Austria will be a sleeper candidate.. If there was a wins-above-replacement statistic for soccer, then Robert Lewandowski would certainly top it after his performances for Bayern and Poland this season. The man is simply unstoppable. His thirteen goals easily led all scorers in qualifying, and there appears to be no way to contain him. Poland’s biggest problem is that the final tournament is a whole year away. He can take what is an above-average team (at best) and make them elite..  Despite all the buzz around the newcomers for Euro 2016, we will likely be missing one continental power as the Netherlands completely fell apart in Group A. The Dutch lost to each of the three sides ahead of them away from home, including being swept by Iceland. This is a team that usually breezes through qualifying, and Group A was not particularly difficult. It will be stunning if the Dutch miss out on France, but thoroughly deserved.. Portugal lost their first match at home to Albania before rattling off seven straight mostly-unimpressive one-goal wins to win Group I. An always-talented but inconsistent side, Portugal will go to France with perhaps Cristiano Ronaldo’s last hope of winning the Euros. While Ronaldo rightly deserves praise as the best Portugese player of all-time, it is unlikely he is rewarded with a major trophy. Portugal has matched nearly every big win with a puzzling loss over the last fifteen years.

Games to Watch:

Tuesday: Euro 2016 qualifying concludes, with a number of deciding matches on tap for both automatic qualification to France and qualification to the playoff round. Tuesday’s games are highlighted by Turkey – Iceland, Cyprus – Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Italy – Norway. Turkey only need a point to qualify for the playoffs as they own the head-to-head with the Netherlands, who take on the Czechs needing a win and a ton of help from Iceland. Turkey should be heading to the playoffs, although they were beaten handily by Iceland in Reykjavik. Cyprus host Bosnia with possibly the unlikeliest bid to qualify for the playoffs. Two points behind their opponents entering the day, Cyprus need a win and an Israel loss or draw in Belgium. Cyprus, who are a mediocre side at best, won in Bosnia before going 2-5 over their next seven matches, only managing to beat minnows (me being kind) Andorra twice. But a win last week in Israel gives them an improbable hope of making the playoffs, as Bosnia has stumbled throughout the campaign and Israel just isn’t very good. I would expect Bosnia to take care of business – they are a much better side and playing better after a nightmare start. Lastly, Norway can qualify for their first major tournament since 2000 by beating Italy, as Croatia will almost certainly beat Malta. Only a win will do, as Croatia won the head-to-head between the two sides.

In South America, Uruguay and Colombia face off in Montevideo. Both teams won their first qualifier, with Uruguay winning in Bolivia and Colombia defeating Peru. Both sides play a physical style and have elite attacking players. Brazil and Argentina are still filled with stars but aren’t the most entertaining teams on the continent now-a-days – these two, along with Chile, are. Hopefully no bites or back-breaking tackles, though.

Saturday: Club football returns, and Tottenham – Liverpool will be the matchup to watch Saturday morning in England. Liverpool hired Jurgen Klopp to replace the struggling Brendan Rodgers, as even a draw in the Merseyside derby was not enough to save Rodgers from receiving the axe. Tottenham provides a solid first test for Klopp, who is one of the best coaches in the world. His last year at Dortmund is not indicative of his abilities, and with a talented but underperforming squad, he could steer the ship back on course quickly. He has already tempered expectations and will need to sign some of his own type of players, but Liverpool should rejoin the “let’s take them seriously” conversation much sooner with Klopp at the helm.

Sunday: Many of the top club teams are missing a marquee matchup this weekend, but there is some interesting action in Italy and Spain. In Italy, Napoli – Fiorentina and Inter Milan – Juventus should be very good matches, while Villarreal takes on Celta Vigo in Spain.  Napoli have won five of six matches (the only draw a puzzling 0-0 result against newly-promoted Carpi) while logging an extraordinary 18:1 goal differential. That run includes a 2-1 win over Juventus and a 4-0 spanking of AC Milan. The hottest team in Serie A, they take on leaders Fiorentina, who are six points ahead but still proving themselves as contenders. Inter are in second place, and will have their hands full with reigning but out-of-form champions Juventus. I’m expecting Juventus to start closing that gap on Inter and Fiorentina, and it should start on Sunday with wins for the “Old Lady” and Napoli.

Monday, October 5, 2015

Weekly Ranks 10/5 - Bayern Jumps Barcelona, English Sides Struggle

Rankings

  1. Bayern Munich
  2. Barcelona
  3. Real Madrid
  4. Paris Saint-Germain
  5. Manchester City
  6. Juventus
  7. Atletico Madrid
  8. Borussia Dortmund
  9. Zenit St. Petersburg
  10. Chelsea
  11. Arsenal
  12. AS Roma
  13. Manchester United
  14. FC Porto
  15. Benfica
  16. Fiorentina
  17. Vfl Wolfsburg
  18. Villarreal
  19. Celta Vigo
  20. CSKA Moscow

Out: Bayer Leverkusen
In: CSKA Moscow

News:

Bayern Munich tops the rankings after their 5-1 drubbing of Dortmund. Bayern were ruthless on Sunday, scoring their five goals within a forty-minute time period. It seems to come in fives for the German sides now-a-days. Both Bayern and PSG will run away with their respective leagues – the question is, will the lack of legitimate competition derail performance in the Champions League, or will it allow star players some much needed rest? Bayern were beaten easily by Barcelona in last year’s semifinal after winning a weak Bundesliga, a year after they were crushed by Real Madrid at the same stage. Bayern's transfer policy, which has substantially weakened their opponents, seems to be backfiring in Europe.. Fiorentina is sitting on top of Serie A, and has scored thirteen goals to just one against in their last four matches, all wins. They’ve built up a ten-point lead over struggling Juventus, and must be considered legitimate contenders. Juve picked up two wins this week, and will surely begin to close the gap sooner rather than later.. Manchester City were the only English side to pick up two wins this week, slipping by Borussia Monchengladbach before destroying Newcastle. City can go as far as Sergio Aguero will take them.. It was another week of disaster for Chelsea, as two listless performances against Porto and Southampton has Jose Mourinho talking about his job prospects. I don’t believe Chelsea will fire Mourinho, but something needs to change, fast. The performances are getting worse and the defense is routinely out of position, giving away easy goals. A loss to Aston Villa after the break could spell big trouble for the Blues.. Arsenal and Manchester United had mixed weeks. Arsenal suffered a devastating loss against Greek champions Olympiakos, which practically ends their Champions League hopes, but bounced back with a 3-0 win over United. The Reds picked up a solid win over Wolfsburg on Wednesday before collapsing in the aforementioned defeat. It’s simply more of the same; United have yet to establish any consistency, while Arsenal are just the same old Arsenal. These sides wouldn’t be considered contenders if Chelsea weren’t in miserable form. It’s Manchester City’s title to lose.. I want to give some love to Andre Villas-Boas and Zenit. The club has navigated around AVB’s six-game domestic suspension to go top of Group H. Their domestic form is improving, but CSKA lead the pack with nine wins and two losses in eleven matches. AVB will be leaving Zenit at the end of the season, and while his tenure in Russia has had some curious moments, he has certainly earned himself another chance at a big club.. It was a good week for the Portuguese sides, as Porto and Benfica produced three wins from three. Benfica’s win in Madrid over Atletico was most impressive, albeit Atletico were preparing for a Madrid derby on the weekend. Porto’s win over Chelsea was analyzed particularly for Chelsea’s poor form, but Porto deserves a ton of credit. They attacked Chelsea with pace and were able to win the ball back quickly in midfield. Executing that type of football could take Porto a long way this season; they seem due for a run, don’t they?


Games to Watch:

Thursday: Euro 2016 qualifying matches will be taking place and there are just two matches left for many teams. Two interesting affairs, which happen to be in the same group, are Ireland – Germany and Scotland – Poland. The current standings in Group D are Germany with 19 points, Poland with 17, Ireland with 15 and Scotland with 11. However, Scotland’s last game is against Gibraltar, so barring what would perhaps be the biggest upset in qualifying history, Scotland will gain an additional three points, giving them 14. Despite playing the current world champions, the pressure is squarely on Ireland, as a loss would make their trip to Poland on Monday a must-win, unless the Poles can help them out by defeating Scotland. These four sides are all pretty good (obviously the Germans are world class) and usually light up the scoreboard, so the magnitude of these matches make them all the more compelling.

Keep an eye on Albania – Serbia as well. The first fixture was abandoned in Serbia after a pro-Albanian flag was attached to a drone and flown above the field during the match. The flag was eventually pulled down by a Serbian player, sparking a melee. The game was awarded as a 3-0 win to Albania, and Serbia were deducted a further three points due to the incident, which was yet another chapter is a series of worrying race and discrimination issues with Serbian fans. Albania have already qualified for the playoffs, and could secure an automatic place in Euro 2016 with wins over Serbia and Armenia, while Serbia are dead last and eliminated. It’s quite sad with Serbia, as there a number of household names on the team, but their fans continue to commit various hooligan crimes, both abroad and at home. It has undoubtedly affected the performance of the team, which has failed to build on their 2010 World Cup qualification.

Friday: 2018 World Cup qualifiers? Already? Qualifying begins in CONMEBOL, the football federation of South America, and Chile – Brazil is the highlighted matchup. Chile won the Copa America on home turf, sealing their first ever title. There isn’t much new with Brazil – they have begun to wash away last summer’s disaster, but their Copa America quarterfinal loss to a mediocre Paraguay side wasn’t nearly enough. I expect Chile to keep on rolling here.

Saturday: More European qualifiers, as Czech Republic – Turkey and Bosnia-Herzegovina – Wales highlight the slate. The Czechs, along with Iceland, have already qualified from Group A, while Turkey leads the Netherlands by two points for third. Four points from the two remaining games will send Turkey to the playoffs, which would mark a shocking collapse for the heralded Dutch side. Both sides play Iceland and the Netherlands face off against Kazakhstan on Saturday. It’s all on the line for Bosnia, as they must defeat group leaders Wales to have any chance of qualifying. They currently trail Israel by two points for third place. After qualifying for the World Cup for the first time as an independent nation, Bosnia has struggled badly in Group B, losing matches to Israel and Cyprus. Like the Dutch, they would be noticeable absentees if they don’t qualify for the final tournament.

Sunday: Thursday’s matches will determine the ultimate significance of Poland – Ireland but it will have meaning regardless of the results. If the Poles and Irish are able to secure their places with wins on Thursday, the match will determine which side goes through automatically versus through the playoffs. If Scotland defeats Poland on Thursday, the match will be for survival. These are two good sides so it should be an entertaining affair, especially with the form that Robert Lewandowski has been displaying for Bayern.

Monday: It could be a testy affair between Russia and Montenegro for each team’s final qualifying match. The Russians are currently in second place with Montenegro fourth. Sweden is in third, one point ahead of Montenegro, but face minnows Liechtenstein and Moldova in their final two matches. Montenegro could easily be eliminated by kickoff, and even if they remain three points behind Russia, they will need to win by four goals to go through. I’m highlighting the match because like Serbia and Albania, the first match was abandoned due to crowd trouble, and Russia was awarded a 3-0 win. The pressure will be cranked up further if the Swedes or Russians trip up on Friday, but things have to break perfectly for the Montenegrins.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Weekly Ranks 9/28 - Barcelona On Top, Bayern Close Behind

Rankings

  1. Barcelona
  2. Bayern Munich
  3. Real Madrid
  4. Paris Saint-Germain
  5. Manchester City
  6. Juventus
  7. Chelsea
  8. Borussia Dortmund
  9. Atletico Madrid
  10. AS Roma
  11. Vfl Wolfsburg
  12. Arsenal
  13. Zenit St. Petersburg
  14. Manchester United
  15. FC Porto
  16. Bayer Leverkusen
  17. Villarreal
  18. Benfica
  19. Fiorentina
  20. Celta Vigo

News:

Barcelona tops the rankings, despite a shocking 4-1 loss at Celta Vigo and the loss of Lionel Messi against Las Palmas. Both should serve as more of a wake-up call than a warning sign. The Catalan side still has the most potent attack in the world, despite just eleven goals in six games. Rivals Real Madrid have conceded just once thus far this season. Expect lower-scoring Classicos this year.. Robert Lewandowski’s five-goal tally in nine minutes against Wolfsburg was incredible. Bayern must be happy they went through all of that trouble to get him. Atop the league, Guardiola’s men will face few challenges domestically this season.. Meanwhile, Dortmund have gotten off to a hot start in the Bundesliga, with new coach Thomas Tuchel off to a bright beginning after replacing Jurgen Klopp. Tuchel didn’t change much tactically or within the squad, but did add some extra pace by acquiring Adnan Januzaj on loan. Dortmund’s sixth place finish last season is still baffling.. Manchester City has cooled off after a hot start, and Chelsea can’t seem to get going this season. The Sky Blues are the favorites to win the league, but they still have many of the same issues as prior years. With Vincent Kompany and Eliaquim Mangala out, City were all over the place defensively in a 4-1 defeat at White Hart Lane.. Chelsea is just playing too slowly. They have been unable to break on the counter and use the pace of their forwards. Their poor defensive record stands out, but it has been a myriad of mistakes rather than sustained poor play that has cost them goals. Expect things to improve, but not greatly until Thibaut Courtois returns.. This should be PSG’s year to shine. Off to a hot start in Ligue 1, expectations are high for the Parisians in Europe. This could finally be their year.. Manchester United are top of the Premier League, but the odds of a season-long run at the title are still long. Anthony Martial is off to a firing start, and things are certainly coming together for the Reds, but I would not consider them to be contenders until next term. Performances are still too uneven, but this team is capable of beating anyone. The consistency will come.. Villarreal and Celta Vigo are off to good starts in La Liga, with Villarreal top of the league after six matches. While neither side can be expected to sustain a run at the top three, the clubs notched victories over Atletico Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. La Liga is the best league in the world right now, and if some balance finally begins to occur in the table, it will make the league even better.. Juventus, like Chelsea, has lost three of its first six games after losing just three last year. They sit 15th in the table, ten points behind Fiorentina after the Viola notched an impressive 4-1 win over Inter in Milan. Juventus’s dominance of Serie A gives them an easier chance at a fight back than the Blues have in the Premier League, but their 1-1 home draw against newcomers Frosinone was particularly poor. Injuries have played a part but Juve need to press their foot on the gas soon.. FC Porto took the early edge in the Portuguese Liga by defeating Benfica 1-0 last weekend. Benfica has won the league each of the past two seasons, and this season figures to be another tight race between the two archrivals.

Games to Watch:

Tuesday: Eight Champions League matches take place, but keep an eye on FC Porto – Chelsea and Arsenal – Olympiacos. Jose Mourinho visits the club where he won his first Champions League title, and Porto should provide a stiff test for a Chelsea side still trying to find their form. I’m expecting a draw, as Mourinho is typically conservative in road European matches and a draw would be just fine for the Blues as Porto drew their first match. However, Diego Costa will be ready to go – his three-game ban is only for domestic matches. Arsenal and Olympiacos each lost their first match, but in contrasting circumstances. The Greeks lost a relatively tight match to Bayern 3-0, and although the score line is not favorable, two of Bayern’s goals came in the final minutes. However, Olympiacos created little going forward and will need to push the tempo in London, as Arsenal have defended well when they have eleven players on the field. In Zagreb, that was not the case, as Olivier Giroud was needlessly sent off in the first half, and Arsenal fell to an embarrassing defeat in Croatia. This is certainly a must-win for the Gunners. The home side has won each of the last six matches between the two sides, and I expect that trend to continue.

Wednesday: Eight more Champions League matches, and there are two more that stand out: Juventus – Sevilla and Manchester United – Wolfsburg. Although, I wouldn’t mind watching Atletico take on Benfica in an Iberian battle, either. Both Juve and Sevilla won their first match, but are struggling badly in their domestic leagues. It is most surprising to see Juventus struggling, as they have dominated Serie A and kept hold of their most prized asset, Paul Pogba, this summer. Sevilla finally won their first match of the season on Saturday and picked up a solid 3-0 win over Borussia Monchengladbach on Matchday 1. I expect Juve to win this game, but it should be an entertaining affair for the neutrals. Manchester United are top of the league but coming off a surprising 2-1 defeat in Eindhoven against PSV. Wolfsburg, my pick to win the group, defeated CSKA in their first match. German teams usually travel well, and Wolfsburg has a number of talented players, including German internationals Andre Schurrle and Julian Draxler. United should take this game, as it is essentially a must-win, but it should be very exciting with a number of goals.

Thursday: 24 Europa League games are on the slate – most interesting are Monaco – Tottenham and Celtic – Fenerbahce. Monaco and Spurs are two of the best teams in the competition, and while we likely won’t see their best sides on the field, it should still be an entertaining affair. Celtic and Fenerbahce faceoff at what is an always electric scene, Celtic Park. Celtic’s glory days are well behind them, but there is always a spirit about the Bhoys at home, and the crowd always creates an impressive atmosphere on European nights. Fener are finally past the match-fixing scandal that has plagued the club since 2011, and after missing European football the past two seasons, the Turkish side are looking to improve after a surprising 3-1 loss to Molde. Group A is probably the best group in this year’s Europa League – the fourth team is Ajax, another team with a proud history.  

Saturday: I will be watching Chelsea take on Southampton, but the only matchup between top sides is Sevilla – Barcelona. As mentioned, Sevilla have struggled in the league but they should be up for the challenge of playing the Catalan side. Expect the fireworks to be going off in Seville, although the absence of Lionel Messi will dampen the hype.

Sunday: The slate is nothing short of incredible – if you’re not an NFL fan (or a fan of say, the Saints, or the Bears) there’s an entire day’s worth of matches. Everton – Liverpool, Arsenal – Manchester United, Atletico Madrid – Real Madrid, Bayern Munich – Borussia Dortmund, PSG – Marseille, and AC Milan – Napoli highlight a jam-packed schedule. The Merseyside derby is always a testy affair, and the pressure has been building for Brendan Rodgers’s Liverpool. An improving Everton side could be exactly what gets them going – or the final nail in the coffin for Rodgers. The Madrid derby has been very tight over the last few seasons, and Diego Simeone’s side will be looking to inflict a first defeat of the season on Real. Unsurprisingly, Real have been much more efficient at the back but far less potent going forward under Rafa Benitez. Expect physical play to persist throughout the game. Bayern sit four points ahead of Dortmund entering the match, with the former already twenty goals to the good with seven wins from seven. Bayern are far ahead of their rivals nowadays, but Dortmund always gives them a good game. The tension between the two clubs regarding transfer policy has made these matches a must-watch.