Euro 2016: More Teams, Fewer Favorites

Euro 2016 is the first European tournament to be held with 24 entrants, up from 16 in the previous few versions. There will also be an extra knock-out round; the best four third-placed teams will qualify from the group stage along with the winners and runners-up of each of the six groups. As I noted in a previous post, the expansion to a 24-team final tournament strongly increased the level of play in qualifying, and we will see a number of nations in this year’s edition that had never previously qualified – Albania, Iceland, Northern Ireland, Slovakia and Wales all make their first appearance in the tournament. This is a positive for a number of reasons, namely that more people get to take participate and dream of their country bringing home the cup. 
 

While I believe the gap between the top sides in Europe and the weaker sides in this tournament has closed, there isn’t much to choose from after Germany and France. The Germans come in confident after their triumph in the 2014 World Cup and have the strongest and deepest roster in Europe. It was shocking to see them lose their aggregate tie in qualifying to the Republic of Ireland, a team I rank as one of the weaker sides to qualify. However, the Germans still won Group D and deserve their label as favorites coming off their World Cup victory. A recent friendly loss to Slovakia shouldn’t be looked into too deeply. France, as hosts, won the World Cup in 1998 and look to repeat that task this summer. The team has gone through more than enough ups and downs in previous tournaments and it seems to be time to get down to business – everyone is sick of the melodramatic stigma that surrounds this team. The midfield is stacked, led by Juventus’s Paul Pogba, and Antoine Griezmann is in the form of his career for Atletico Madrid. The French are my pick to win the tournament.

Spain just looks old to me. The two-time defending champs struggled in the World Cup and their forward line is surprisingly thin. Their qualifying group was particularly weak and they split their matches with the second-best side, Slovakia. No one in their right mind can pick England. I like the roster – it looks stronger than previous tournaments – but there’s that inevitable sense of failure looming. Maybe Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy can change that? They’re in a very tough group and were truly dreadful in Brazil. Belgium, Portugal and Italy are the last three sides that could be considered as possible contenders, but Belgium is still young, Portugal has little else outside of Ronaldo and Italy is lacking the quality you’d expect out of an Italian team.

There are a few dark horses in this tournament. Croatia has a wealth of talent in midfield and experience up front with Mario Mandzukic. They have failed to live up to expectations since their quarterfinal appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and crashing out in the group stages of Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup. Croatia placed third in Euro 1998 and could make a deep run in France again. They have the talent to win the tournament and while that is a lofty expectation, a semi-final appearance seems likely to me. Switzerland is another team that could make a much deeper run than expected. Their group is weak other than France, whom they lost to 5-2 in 2014. Romania and Albania shouldn’t be any issue for the experienced Swiss side, and a runners-up position in the group would likely pit them against Poland or Ukraine. A quarterfinal appearance seems reasonable, and would surpass expectations for a side that managed to hold Argentina for 116 minutes in the World Cup before losing 1-0.

France should win Group A easily. They crushed the Swiss in the World Cup (the 5-2 score line understated the play on the field) and Romania won’t be able to score against them. Albania is the worst team in the tournament by some distance. They qualified mostly due to the fact that their group was bad and they were the beneficiaries of an unfortunate incident involving Serbia. Romania has gotten steadily weaker over the last two decades and I haven’t seen anything to convince me a turnaround is coming. They can pack it in defensively but that’s about it. Switzerland should advance along with the French. Group B is a wildcard. You never know what you’re going to get from England, and their first match against the regularly underperforming Russian side should give us a good idea. The matchup with Wales on June 16 will be dynamite, and the one-man show of Gareth Bale will need to be on top form to advance. Other than a bizarre home loss to Belarus, Slovakia was solid in qualifying and presents a very balanced opponent. Martin Skrtel and Marek Hamsik are the cornerstones of the side, and both are experienced, talented players. Russia always seems to underachieve in major tournaments and this group presents a greater challenge than they faced in Brazil. I’m going to take England to win the group and advance with Slovakia, but I’m prepared to hear the England fans moaning if they blow it against the Welsh. They’ll never hear the end of that. But Group B could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Poland and Germany split two matches in qualifying and they will play again in Group C, also on June 16. The Poles have steadily improved over the last few years and with Robert Lewandowski leading the lines, they will be an entertaining team to watch. Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland are boring and bad, so I’m hoping that the Germans and Poles find their way through. The Irish won what was the worst European qualifying group I’ve ever seen, and while their progress deserves accolades, it doesn’t make them any better. The best side they managed to beat was Hungary (who I rank 23 out of the 24 teams that qualified). Ukraine is a bit better but there were just 18 total goals in their 10 qualifying matches, with six of them coming in a pair of 3-0 wins against Luxembourg. Can’t say I’m excited to watch Ukraine play, although Andriy Yarmolenko can make them bearable to watch. Ukraine did have success against Poland in 2013 but the teams have been going in opposite directions since then. Thankfully, Germany and Poland are the best two teams in the group and should head through. Group D is very interesting. Spain will try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit in Brazil, but their squad doesn’t look too intimidating to me. Diego Costa will not go to France, and while he has struggled with injuries, finishing, and keeping his head on straight over the last twelve months, his absence leaves Spain heavily reliant on Juventus forward Alvaro Morata. An aging midfield behind him does not inspire me, and a 1-0 loss to Georgia in their final tune-up could prove to be an eerie sign. The Czechs and Turks also faced off in qualifying, with each side winning at the other’s ground. Turkey seems to play well in tournaments so they could be a dark horse in this group. I see Croatia as the best team in the group. Some combination of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic will form what looks like the best midfield in Europe. Croatia faces Spain on June 21, likely to determine the group’s winner. I like the Croats to beat the Spanish and win the group, with Spain second.

Group E is another very balanced group. Belgium and Italy face each other first on June 13 in what should be an exciting contest. It could go either way, and we should see plenty of goals. Sweden and Ireland played one another in World Cup qualifying in 2013 and the Swedes came out on top, winning in Ireland and securing a draw at home. What would this tournament be without Zlatan? He’d be the first to tell you it would be boring and not worth watching, so let’s hope his final Euros turns out to be a memorable one. The problem is, Sweden just isn’t very good, and although they were in a tough qualifying group and were the only side to take a point from Austria, they won just five of their ten matches and had to beat Scandinavian rivals Denmark in a playoff just to qualify. Ireland has put up some very good results, beating Germany during qualifying and knocking out a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina side in the playoffs. They haven’t been nearly as good outside of Ireland, and this group is particularly tough. Despite their respective issues, Belgium and Italy will be heavy favorites to advance and I expect both sides to do so.

Lastly, Group F strongly resembles Group D in the Copa America – there are two very strong sides and two rather inept ones. Portugal will always be a threat with Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Austria is their only formidable opponent. Austria ran off nine wins and a draw in ten qualifying matches to reach the tournament for the second time (they co-hosted in 2008). Led by Bayern Munich midfielder David Alaba, the Austrians have perhaps their best team ever. I would rank them higher but their lack of experience concerns me. The two clunkers in the group are Iceland and Hungary. Iceland had a great run in qualifying, but I expect them to come down to Earth. Their two wins against the Netherlands say more about the state of the Dutch side than the prowess of their own play. Iceland has some stars but no real experience to draw upon. Hungary came in third in that awful qualifying group that Northern Ireland won. They scored only 11 goals in 10 matches and qualified by beating a poor Norway side. This isn’t the Hungarian side from the 1950’s. Iceland has a better shot at causing a shock but Portugal and Austria are a few steps above both teams.

I picked the hosts in Brazil and felt pretty dumb afterwards so I’m hoping this isn’t a repeat. France has the fortune of an easy group to get the home crowd behind the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have a squad of their caliber. Overall, I expect this tournament to be less predictable than the Copa America – these teams don’t play each other in competitive atmospheres very often and there are eight more teams involved. That means eight additional styles of play, numerous additional superstars that could win a game single-handedly and ultimately what should be a very fun tournament to watch. The Germans are the betting favorite but this is the type of year where you could see an underdog take the trophy.

Weekly Rankings 10/12 - Germany Tops International Ranks; Netherlands Disappoints

Rankings

1. Germany
2. Chile
3. Argentina
4. Spain
5. Belgium
6. France
7. Portugal
8. Colombia
9. Austria
10. Brazil
11. Italy
12. Uruguay
13. England
14. Poland
15. Côte d'Ivoire
16. Wales
17. Iceland
18. Croatia
19. Ghana
20. Netherlands

Terms:

AFC – Asian soccer federation

CAF – African soccer federation

CONCACAF – North American soccer federation

CONMEBOL – South American soccer federation

UEFA – European soccer federation

News:

Let me first mention that FIFA’s actual “rankings” are ridiculous (perhaps a good representative of the organization itself). To summarize, they don’t take into account teams who are hosting major tournaments, and place way too much emphasis on meaningless qualifying games. If you’re looking at the official rankings and wondering why Wales is 8th and France is 22nd, there’s your answer..  No team from CONCACAF makes my rankings. The United States used to be worthy, but their Gold Cup performance was just plain awful. You could see the loss to Mexico coming – the team doesn’t deserve a place in the Confederations Cup, and you aren’t a top-20 team if you lose to Jamaica in a big game. Mexico is still a mess, despite the win. Costa Rica is the only other possible candidate – they too were poor in the Gold Cup. Years of corruption in the FIFA hierarchy (i.e. Jack Warner) has made headlines, but its effect on stunting the growth of CONCACAF is clear.. Not willing to give any team from AFC a spot either. Australia and Japan have been the best two teams in the region for quite some time, but neither made any kind of dent at the World Cup last year. South Korea also failed to make an impact, and with Iran rounding out the region’s qualifiers, the results were four last-place finishes for AFC.  It’s an area lacking in star power and depth. Asia has some of the worst teams in the world despite having massive populations, as countries like India and China are pathetic on the field. There is the most room for growth in AFC, but it hasn’t even begun its liftoff yet.

European qualifiers are nearly concluded, with only tomorrow’s matches remaining. I wrote previously about how the expansion from a 16-team final tournament to 24 teams would raise the quality of play in qualifying matches (10/14: New European Qualifying Structure Paying Quick Dividends), and the results are quite staggering. Iceland, Northern Ireland, Wales, Albania and Slovakia all qualified for their first-ever tournament, while Austria also qualified for the first time (they were co-hosts in 2008, and were automatically in). There are six pots to rank teams from best to worst, and Wales came from Pot 4, while Iceland, Northern Ireland and Albania came from Pot 5. For reference, 2012 qualifying’s lowest-ranked team to qualify was Ireland, who was in Pot 3. The last team to qualify from the fourth pot or lower was Latvia in 2004, when there were only five pots. Granted, more spots in the finals means more opportunities for lower-ranked nations, but the expansion of the Euros has not only improved competitiveness, but allowed football to grow more quickly and gain more attention in smaller countries. The move has been a clear bright spot during a dark, turbulent period for UEFA and FIFA.

As for the rankings, World Champions Germany top the list, just as their counterparts Bayern Munich do for the club rankings. Last week’s loss to Ireland was a black mark, certainly, but given the busy club schedules at this time and the cushion Germany had in Group D, it was forgivable. There is no deeper team in the world – Germany’s “B” team would likely be a top-15 side. They will be favorites next summer to win Euro 2016.. Chile logged an impressive win over Brazil to take the initiative in CONMEBOL qualifying. This should not come as a surprise, despite it being Chile’s first win over their counterparts in fifteen years. Brazil will be better when Neymar returns; for now, they are barely a top-10 side.. Argentina played horribly in a 2-0 defeat to Ecuador and lost Sergio Aguero in the process. Sadly, at this point we must expect Aguero to get hurt because it seems to happen so frequently. He should miss over a month of play this time. Despite the poor performance, Argentina will be fine without him – it is a much greater concern for Manchester City.

Winners from Euro qualifiers? The United Kingdom and Ireland, which could see four of their five teams in France next summer. England, Northern Ireland and Wales are already qualified, while Ireland head to the playoffs. Only Scotland will certainly miss out, as a loss in Georgia proved a fateful blow to their campaign. Wales are certainly not as good as their lofty FIFA ranking, but Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey could take the team a long way. The Welsh could make some noise in France. England are good, of course, but not great. More of the same should be expected.. Austria have been one of the shining stars of qualifying. Seemingly packed with expectation year after year, the young Austrian side finally came through, winning Group G easily while dropping just two points in a home draw with Sweden. Full of crafty midfielders, Austria will be a sleeper candidate.. If there was a wins-above-replacement statistic for soccer, then Robert Lewandowski would certainly top it after his performances for Bayern and Poland this season. The man is simply unstoppable. His thirteen goals easily led all scorers in qualifying, and there appears to be no way to contain him. Poland’s biggest problem is that the final tournament is a whole year away. He can take what is an above-average team (at best) and make them elite..  Despite all the buzz around the newcomers for Euro 2016, we will likely be missing one continental power as the Netherlands completely fell apart in Group A. The Dutch lost to each of the three sides ahead of them away from home, including being swept by Iceland. This is a team that usually breezes through qualifying, and Group A was not particularly difficult. It will be stunning if the Dutch miss out on France, but thoroughly deserved.. Portugal lost their first match at home to Albania before rattling off seven straight mostly-unimpressive one-goal wins to win Group I. An always-talented but inconsistent side, Portugal will go to France with perhaps Cristiano Ronaldo’s last hope of winning the Euros. While Ronaldo rightly deserves praise as the best Portugese player of all-time, it is unlikely he is rewarded with a major trophy. Portugal has matched nearly every big win with a puzzling loss over the last fifteen years.

Games to Watch:

Tuesday: Euro 2016 qualifying concludes, with a number of deciding matches on tap for both automatic qualification to France and qualification to the playoff round. Tuesday’s games are highlighted by Turkey – Iceland, Cyprus – Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Italy – Norway. Turkey only need a point to qualify for the playoffs as they own the head-to-head with the Netherlands, who take on the Czechs needing a win and a ton of help from Iceland. Turkey should be heading to the playoffs, although they were beaten handily by Iceland in Reykjavik. Cyprus host Bosnia with possibly the unlikeliest bid to qualify for the playoffs. Two points behind their opponents entering the day, Cyprus need a win and an Israel loss or draw in Belgium. Cyprus, who are a mediocre side at best, won in Bosnia before going 2-5 over their next seven matches, only managing to beat minnows (me being kind) Andorra twice. But a win last week in Israel gives them an improbable hope of making the playoffs, as Bosnia has stumbled throughout the campaign and Israel just isn’t very good. I would expect Bosnia to take care of business – they are a much better side and playing better after a nightmare start. Lastly, Norway can qualify for their first major tournament since 2000 by beating Italy, as Croatia will almost certainly beat Malta. Only a win will do, as Croatia won the head-to-head between the two sides.

In South America, Uruguay and Colombia face off in Montevideo. Both teams won their first qualifier, with Uruguay winning in Bolivia and Colombia defeating Peru. Both sides play a physical style and have elite attacking players. Brazil and Argentina are still filled with stars but aren’t the most entertaining teams on the continent now-a-days – these two, along with Chile, are. Hopefully no bites or back-breaking tackles, though.

Saturday: Club football returns, and Tottenham – Liverpool will be the matchup to watch Saturday morning in England. Liverpool hired Jurgen Klopp to replace the struggling Brendan Rodgers, as even a draw in the Merseyside derby was not enough to save Rodgers from receiving the axe. Tottenham provides a solid first test for Klopp, who is one of the best coaches in the world. His last year at Dortmund is not indicative of his abilities, and with a talented but underperforming squad, he could steer the ship back on course quickly. He has already tempered expectations and will need to sign some of his own type of players, but Liverpool should rejoin the “let’s take them seriously” conversation much sooner with Klopp at the helm.

Sunday: Many of the top club teams are missing a marquee matchup this weekend, but there is some interesting action in Italy and Spain. In Italy, Napoli – Fiorentina and Inter Milan – Juventus should be very good matches, while Villarreal takes on Celta Vigo in Spain.  Napoli have won five of six matches (the only draw a puzzling 0-0 result against newly-promoted Carpi) while logging an extraordinary 18:1 goal differential. That run includes a 2-1 win over Juventus and a 4-0 spanking of AC Milan. The hottest team in Serie A, they take on leaders Fiorentina, who are six points ahead but still proving themselves as contenders. Inter are in second place, and will have their hands full with reigning but out-of-form champions Juventus. I’m expecting Juventus to start closing that gap on Inter and Fiorentina, and it should start on Sunday with wins for the “Old Lady” and Napoli.

Evaluating Galatasaray and Looking Ahead to the Knockout Stage

The UEFA Champions League knockout stage starts in two weeks after the seasonal winter break, so teams are starting to prepare for their ties. The transfer window slams shut at the end of January so clubs are making last minute additions and subtractions to their squads. Nearly every club in Europe has something to play for and are shaping up to achieve their goals for the season.

The most exciting moves have come from an unlikely source - Turkey's Galatasaray. Turkish football has suffered under UEFA investigations of match-fixing, including a European ban last year to Galatasaray's arch-rival Fenerbahce. Both clubs share the lead with 18 domestic titles, while Gala holds a small advantage in terms of fan base. Despite the recent turmoil, this is a huge club and showed its prestige by bringing in Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba this month. Both are Champions League winners and would be included in anyone's list of greatest players of the last decade. Both players are far from the form that brought them those honors, but are still great assets for a team with little experience against the titans of Europe.

Will Drogba and Sneijder make a big impact? For a team with a number of Turkish internationals, including the current joint-lead scorer in Europe, Burak Yilmaz, as well as experienced foreign players like Felipe Melo and Thomas Ujfalusi, it is certainly intriguing. I don't believe these moves were made in an attempt to win the Champions League, but to strengthen the squad for both Europe and the Super Lig. Gala have a five point lead over Fener and it is just as important to top their rivals as it is to achieve success in Europe (if not more so). Having depth in the squad is especially important at this time of the year, and Drogba and Sneijder will certainly provide that, but their impact will likely be minimal. Drogba is not fit enough to start for Ivory Coast in the African Cup of Nations and it has been two years since Sneijder displayed top form. Fans expecting a long run in Europe this year are likely to be disappointed, as anything further than victory over Schalke would be a shock. However, the moves show Galatasaray's ambition to compete on the continental stage, so they could be tough competitors for years to come.

The Milan-Barcelona tie also became more interesting through the transfer window. Barcelona have been rampant in La Liga and will be heavy favorites, but AC have recently hit a solid run of form and brought in maverick striker Mario Balotelli to aid the attacking front. Balotelli's impact is completely unknown, mainly because he is a complete unknown, so we will have to see. But as always with Mario, if he can focus his energy on his footballing talents rather than his psychotic antics, he will be difficult to stop. Milan's only hope in the tie is that they can score enough times to beat Barcelona - I would guess that number would be around five or six, minimum. Balotelli, the in-form Stephan El Shaarawy, Robinho, and Giampaolo Pazzini provide solid options for Massimiliano Allegri and they may push Barca further than last year. It will still take a near-flawless performance to knock out the 2011 champs, who are playing at full throttle right now.

Full preview of the Champions League coming next week - I want to see the final transfer moves before making the final write-up. Will there be another APOEL this year?

Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Second Legs

For the most part, Friday's games played out as expected. Bosnia and Portugal were defensive in a 0-0 draw, but both Postiga and Ibisevic missed golden opportunities for their respective sides. The Czechs took down Montenegro 2-0 in a very narrow game, but the key was the second goal for the Czechs, which came in extra time. I mentioned how solid both of these sides are defensively, and the two-goal deficit makes for a difficult task for Montenegro. An away goal by the Czechs would end the tie, and while I don't want to give up on the underdogs, they would need a historic effort to go through. Ireland is in fantastic shape after a 4-0 win in Estonia. The Irish got the early goal they needed and let the Estonians self-destruct - they ended the game with just nine men. The game at the Aviva is merely a formality, and some of the unfancied players in Ireland's team may feature. Croatia's 3-0 win in Turkey came as somewhat of a surprise, but only for the margin. Croatia have been in far better form and were tested better in the group stage than the Turks, and their quality showed. It was almost too easy for the Croats, and a for a side managed by Guus Hiddink, Turkey must be very disappointed.

WHAT TO EXPECT ON TUESDAY: Ireland's tie with Estonia is finished, as is Croatia's with Turkey. Both sides should be heading to Euro 2012 barring a miraculous comeback. Portugal-Bosnia will be the best match of the day. Portugal are the better side and played better despite being away from home in the first leg. However, Bosnia was excellent in their last game away, a 1-1 draw in France. A 1-1 draw would send the Bosnians through on away goals, so while they will likely start conservatively, a goal would put them in a great position. I thought that if Bosnia could squeak a goal at home they would be able to go through, but now Portugal are definite favorites and should take care of business at home. 2-0 looks like a probable result. Montenegro face a two-goal deficit when they return home, but they lack the attacking power. I would give them a better chance if it was only 1-0, but the second goal is really the nail in the coffin. It is not an impossible task, but this game will likely end 0-0 or 1-1.

That leaves us with Ireland, Croatia, Portugal and the Czech Republic coming through the playoffs. They would join Denmark, England, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and Ukraine in next summer's tournament. Euro 2012 is the last version of the tournament featuring sixteen teams - future tournaments will have twenty-four teams. I'll have a recap of the playoffs and small preview of the finals Tuesday night.

Euro 2012 Qualification Playoffs - Preview

This international break is crucial for eight countries - Portugal, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Montenegro and Estonia will fight for the last four spots in Euro 2012, with the first leg at the unseeded opponent on Friday, followed by the second leg at the seeded opponent on Tuesday. At this stage, the favorites typically go through, but there are a number of surprise packages in this tournament's qualifying, so the ties should be very interesting. Slovenia's defeat of Russia to qualify for the 2010 World Cup gives all the underdogs at this stage hope to get through.

Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina: These teams met in the 2010 World Cup qualifying's playoff round, with Portugal winning 1-0 home and away to head to South Africa. Both teams narrowly missed out on automatic qualification - Bosnia drew 1-1 in France when they needed a win, and Portugal fell 2-1 to Denmark when they needed just a draw. Portugal are clear favorites here, with star-power in Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, and Danny just to name a few. Portugal are also under pressure, as coach Paolo Bento has been under scrutiny from both the press and his own players, with Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Carvalho refusing to play for the country while he is coach. Bosnia is at the point where being "happy to play" is starting to wear off, as the country has made large strides in its football quality over the past five years. Edin Dzeko will lead the side - the Manchester City star scored in France to put his side twelve minutes away from automatic qualification. While Portugal are favorites here, this is a popular upset pick, and I think we will see an upset too. While many Portuguese would clearly want to see their team progress, I think Portugal need to lose this tie if they are ever going to return to being the powerhouse they were ten years ago. The team has a ton of talent, but it seems that they always underperform and there are issues with whichever coach is at the helm. A loss here would likely help them long-term. Bosnia has the ability to snatch this tie if they continue the form they showed in the group.

PREDICTION: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 Portugal, Portugal 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina advances 2-2 on away goals

Croatia v. Turkey: Croatia and Turkey are two teams of similar quality, and last met in Euro 2008 in one of the wildest games of the tournament. The game was 0-0 through 90 minutes, but Ivan Klasnic scored for Croatia on 119 minutes, only for Semih Senturk to score in the second minute of injury time (when there was only supposed to be one minute). Croatia missed all of their spot-kicks in the shootout and were eliminated, while feeling hard-done by the game's conclusion. Croatia missed the 2010 World Cup but seemed on course to automatically qualify until they lost 2-0 to Greece, moving them in the playoffs. The Turks have regressed since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and struggling through a rather weak Group A, qualifying by one point over Belgium. Guus Hiddink has not performed as well as Turkey's coach as many projected, and with the match-fixing affair in the national league, Turkish football has not been up to its previous quality. Croatia seem to be a fading power, despite the presence of Luka Modric, but they should be able to win this tie. The Turks have shown very little this year to think they could upset Croatia, and the Croats will be out for revenge for the tie in 2008.

PREDICTION: Turkey 1-1 Croatia, Croatia 2-0 Turkey. Croatia advances 3-1 on aggregate

Czech Republic v. Montenegro: Unlike Croatia, the Czech Republic is a fallen football power, struggling through the weakest qualifying group (by far, the only real challenger was Scotland) to make the playoffs by a point. Montenegro were the surprise of qualifying, making the playoffs ahead of Switzerland or Bulgaria, and drawing England home and away. The Czechs are not nearly the quality they once were, and while Montenegro is the smallest country still in qualifying, it can be argued that they are a better team. They conceded just seven goals in eight games, and while the scored just seven, this team has the feel of a side that can do just enough to win. The Czechs conceded just eight goals in eight games, with Petr Cech (if healthy) to lead the side in goal. Early goals will be crucial in this tie, even more than normal because of the defensive power of both sides. This is the most difficult tie to pick because one early goal will change the complexion of the whole tie. I'm going to pick another upset here, because Montenegro should be rewarded for playing far better in qualifying than the Czechs did.

PREDICTION: Czech Republic 0-0 Montenegro, Montenegro 1-0 Czech Republic. Montenegro advances 1-0 on aggregate

Ireland v. Estonia: Surprise challengers Estonia face Ireland in the last playoff tie. Ireland are overwhelming favorites, qualifying behind Russia in Group B. Estonia squeaked through Group C, qualifying more due to the inept play of Serbia and Slovenia than their own campaign. The Estonians did defeat Serbia and Slovenia away, but also lost away to the Faroe Islands. They are a true unknown, because their results have no pattern and their players are far from household names. Every team can be excused of a slip-up, but the 2-0 loss to the Faroes stands out. That type of result does not reflect the Estonians as being one of the best sixteen sides in Europe. Ireland have experience in their coaching and players, who went through the Thierry Henry-handball incident in 2010. They have the advantage in both quality and motivation. This is not completely straightforward for Ireland - they have faltered at this stage many times. However, this is the best opponent they could have drawn, and they should be able to control this tie.

PREDICTION: Estonia 1-2 Ireland, Ireland 2-0 Estonia. Ireland advances 4-1 on aggregate.

Check-in this weekend after the first legs. The ties could look very different if there are surprise results.