On June 3, the United States has the unique opportunity to host the Copa America, the South American version of the European Championships (which begin June 10 in France, preview coming soon). It’s kind of odd in many ways, as not only has the tournament never been held outside of South America, but it’s usually every four years, and they just had it last year (Chile won as hosts). I’m not complaining though, more competitive soccer for us. The tournament is a commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the first tournament in 1916.
There are a handful of teams capable of winning the competition. However, we are not one of them, barring a ridiculous Greece-like run. The shameful fourth-place finish we had in last year’s Gold Cup doesn’t seem like an inflection point as much as it seems like a continuation of the downward trend under Jurgen Klinsmann. Klinsmann has done some nice things with the team, and he certainly has strengthened the talent pool for years to come by attracting “foreign” players. However, his in-game coaching is clearly lacking, as Phillip Lahm so eloquently put in 2011, “he doesn’t do tactics.” Over the last ten months, we’ve lost competitive matches to Jamaica, Panama (both at home), Mexico (at home, with a chance to go to the Confederations Cup next year), and Guatemala. Ugh. We should be able to beat Jamaica and Guatemala with me coaching the side but somehow we didn’t. My waning hope for this team rests on the first match, against Colombia. If we can get a positive result in that game (which for me would be a draw), we could make a somewhat deep run, especially considering we’re hosts. I don’t see it, and although I think we can beat Costa Rica and possibly Paraguay, I simply don’t have the faith in Klinsmann to put any expectation behind it. I’ll be happy if we get out of the group.
Colombia is the best team in Group A; they should win it without an issue. The other three sides are set to fight for second, and it should be pretty tight. I’m going to take us for second just because I want to see it happen. There’s nothing particularly special about either Paraguay or Costa Rica, although Paraguay were finalists in the 2011 version. Group B should be a breeze for Brazil. They could probably beat Haiti with nine men, and history suggests Peru and Ecuador have little chance of securing a point. Haiti is a clear level below the others in this group. Peru and Ecuador, two teams used to playing at high altitudes, play on June 8 in Glendale at an elevation of just 522 feet. I expect both teams to be uncomfortable there and a draw is likely, meaning second-place could come down to their goal differences in their nearly-inevitable wins against Haiti and losses against Brazil. I like Ecuador to take second.
Group C should be the tightest overall. Mexico plays their three matches in Arizona, California and Texas so they’re basically hosting as well. Their first match, June 5 against Uruguay, will be the most entertaining. Pichichi winner and constant antagonist Luis Suarez will be a menace for Uruguay, and last year’s Gold Cup winners haven’t convinced me they have the attacking power to keep up. Suarez’s fitness will play a large role in deciding this group. As of right now, I’m assuming he will be fit by ranking Uruguay fifth. If he is unable to play, I would drop them to eighth. Leicester’s Wes Morgan leads Jamaica into the tournament, runners-up to Mexico in the aforementioned Gold Cup. Jamaica isn’t very good, but their experience is in defense, so they could be tough to break down. Venezuela is a bit of a wild card but their results have been poor in qualifying and I don’t expect that to change here. Uruguay and Mexico should navigate through Group C. Group D features two of the tournament’s best sides – Argentina and Chile, who played in last year’s Copa America final – and two of its worst, Panama and Bolivia. Argentina and Chile play on June 6 in Santa Clara, each team’s first game, so we should be in for an entertaining rematch. The other two sides don’t have nearly enough talent or experience to keep up.
My pick for the tournament winner is Argentina – they have the best team and will be smarting after last year’s shootout loss to Chile in the final.
See the below table for my full predictions for the opening round. The teams are ranked 1-16 (by me) and are formatted to show the potential disparity or closeness in ranking. The recent results highlighted in green are particularly important; the ones in red you can disregard. This is because of the timing of the recent matches or the competitiveness of them. Most recent result is listed first.
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