While I believe the gap between the top sides in Europe and the weaker sides in this tournament has closed, there isn’t much to choose from after Germany and France. The Germans come in confident after their triumph in the 2014 World Cup and have the strongest and deepest roster in Europe. It was shocking to see them lose their aggregate tie in qualifying to the Republic of Ireland, a team I rank as one of the weaker sides to qualify. However, the Germans still won Group D and deserve their label as favorites coming off their World Cup victory. A recent friendly loss to Slovakia shouldn’t be looked into too deeply. France, as hosts, won the World Cup in 1998 and look to repeat that task this summer. The team has gone through more than enough ups and downs in previous tournaments and it seems to be time to get down to business – everyone is sick of the melodramatic stigma that surrounds this team. The midfield is stacked, led by Juventus’s Paul Pogba, and Antoine Griezmann is in the form of his career for Atletico Madrid. The French are my pick to win the tournament.
Spain just looks old to me. The two-time defending champs struggled in the World Cup and their forward line is surprisingly thin. Their qualifying group was particularly weak and they split their matches with the second-best side, Slovakia. No one in their right mind can pick England. I like the roster – it looks stronger than previous tournaments – but there’s that inevitable sense of failure looming. Maybe Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy can change that? They’re in a very tough group and were truly dreadful in Brazil. Belgium, Portugal and Italy are the last three sides that could be considered as possible contenders, but Belgium is still young, Portugal has little else outside of Ronaldo and Italy is lacking the quality you’d expect out of an Italian team.
There are a few dark horses in this tournament. Croatia has a wealth of talent in midfield and experience up front with Mario Mandzukic. They have failed to live up to expectations since their quarterfinal appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and crashing out in the group stages of Euro 2012 and the 2014 World Cup. Croatia placed third in Euro 1998 and could make a deep run in France again. They have the talent to win the tournament and while that is a lofty expectation, a semi-final appearance seems likely to me. Switzerland is another team that could make a much deeper run than expected. Their group is weak other than France, whom they lost to 5-2 in 2014. Romania and Albania shouldn’t be any issue for the experienced Swiss side, and a runners-up position in the group would likely pit them against Poland or Ukraine. A quarterfinal appearance seems reasonable, and would surpass expectations for a side that managed to hold Argentina for 116 minutes in the World Cup before losing 1-0.
France should win Group A easily. They crushed the Swiss in the World Cup (the 5-2 score line understated the play on the field) and Romania won’t be able to score against them. Albania is the worst team in the tournament by some distance. They qualified mostly due to the fact that their group was bad and they were the beneficiaries of an unfortunate incident involving Serbia. Romania has gotten steadily weaker over the last two decades and I haven’t seen anything to convince me a turnaround is coming. They can pack it in defensively but that’s about it. Switzerland should advance along with the French. Group B is a wildcard. You never know what you’re going to get from England, and their first match against the regularly underperforming Russian side should give us a good idea. The matchup with Wales on June 16 will be dynamite, and the one-man show of Gareth Bale will need to be on top form to advance. Other than a bizarre home loss to Belarus, Slovakia was solid in qualifying and presents a very balanced opponent. Martin Skrtel and Marek Hamsik are the cornerstones of the side, and both are experienced, talented players. Russia always seems to underachieve in major tournaments and this group presents a greater challenge than they faced in Brazil. I’m going to take England to win the group and advance with Slovakia, but I’m prepared to hear the England fans moaning if they blow it against the Welsh. They’ll never hear the end of that. But Group B could finish in any order and it wouldn’t surprise me.
Poland and Germany split two matches in qualifying and they will play again in Group C, also on June 16. The Poles have steadily improved over the last few years and with Robert Lewandowski leading the lines, they will be an entertaining team to watch. Both Ukraine and Northern Ireland are boring and bad, so I’m hoping that the Germans and Poles find their way through. The Irish won what was the worst European qualifying group I’ve ever seen, and while their progress deserves accolades, it doesn’t make them any better. The best side they managed to beat was Hungary (who I rank 23 out of the 24 teams that qualified). Ukraine is a bit better but there were just 18 total goals in their 10 qualifying matches, with six of them coming in a pair of 3-0 wins against Luxembourg. Can’t say I’m excited to watch Ukraine play, although Andriy Yarmolenko can make them bearable to watch. Ukraine did have success against Poland in 2013 but the teams have been going in opposite directions since then. Thankfully, Germany and Poland are the best two teams in the group and should head through. Group D is very interesting. Spain will try to bounce back from their embarrassing exit in Brazil, but their squad doesn’t look too intimidating to me. Diego Costa will not go to France, and while he has struggled with injuries, finishing, and keeping his head on straight over the last twelve months, his absence leaves Spain heavily reliant on Juventus forward Alvaro Morata. An aging midfield behind him does not inspire me, and a 1-0 loss to Georgia in their final tune-up could prove to be an eerie sign. The Czechs and Turks also faced off in qualifying, with each side winning at the other’s ground. Turkey seems to play well in tournaments so they could be a dark horse in this group. I see Croatia as the best team in the group. Some combination of Luka Modric, Mateo Kovacic, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic will form what looks like the best midfield in Europe. Croatia faces Spain on June 21, likely to determine the group’s winner. I like the Croats to beat the Spanish and win the group, with Spain second.
Group E is another very balanced group. Belgium and Italy face each other first on June 13 in what should be an exciting contest. It could go either way, and we should see plenty of goals. Sweden and Ireland played one another in World Cup qualifying in 2013 and the Swedes came out on top, winning in Ireland and securing a draw at home. What would this tournament be without Zlatan? He’d be the first to tell you it would be boring and not worth watching, so let’s hope his final Euros turns out to be a memorable one. The problem is, Sweden just isn’t very good, and although they were in a tough qualifying group and were the only side to take a point from Austria, they won just five of their ten matches and had to beat Scandinavian rivals Denmark in a playoff just to qualify. Ireland has put up some very good results, beating Germany during qualifying and knocking out a strong Bosnia-Herzegovina side in the playoffs. They haven’t been nearly as good outside of Ireland, and this group is particularly tough. Despite their respective issues, Belgium and Italy will be heavy favorites to advance and I expect both sides to do so.
Lastly, Group F strongly resembles Group D in the Copa America – there are two very strong sides and two rather inept ones. Portugal will always be a threat with Cristiano Ronaldo in the side and Austria is their only formidable opponent. Austria ran off nine wins and a draw in ten qualifying matches to reach the tournament for the second time (they co-hosted in 2008). Led by Bayern Munich midfielder David Alaba, the Austrians have perhaps their best team ever. I would rank them higher but their lack of experience concerns me. The two clunkers in the group are Iceland and Hungary. Iceland had a great run in qualifying, but I expect them to come down to Earth. Their two wins against the Netherlands say more about the state of the Dutch side than the prowess of their own play. Iceland has some stars but no real experience to draw upon. Hungary came in third in that awful qualifying group that Northern Ireland won. They scored only 11 goals in 10 matches and qualified by beating a poor Norway side. This isn’t the Hungarian side from the 1950’s. Iceland has a better shot at causing a shock but Portugal and Austria are a few steps above both teams.
I picked the hosts in Brazil and felt pretty dumb afterwards so I’m hoping this isn’t a repeat. France has the fortune of an easy group to get the home crowd behind the team. It also doesn’t hurt to have a squad of their caliber. Overall, I expect this tournament to be less predictable than the Copa America – these teams don’t play each other in competitive atmospheres very often and there are eight more teams involved. That means eight additional styles of play, numerous additional superstars that could win a game single-handedly and ultimately what should be a very fun tournament to watch. The Germans are the betting favorite but this is the type of year where you could see an underdog take the trophy.
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