Copa America Centenario Preview: Don’t Expect Much From Team USA

On June 3, the United States has the unique opportunity to host the Copa America, the South American version of the European Championships (which begin June 10 in France, preview coming soon). It’s kind of odd in many ways, as not only has the tournament never been held outside of South America, but it’s usually every four years, and they just had it last year (Chile won as hosts). I’m not complaining though, more competitive soccer for us. The tournament is a commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the first tournament in 1916.

There are a handful of teams capable of winning the competition. However, we are not one of them, barring a ridiculous Greece-like run. The shameful fourth-place finish we had in last year’s Gold Cup doesn’t seem like an inflection point as much as it seems like a continuation of the downward trend under Jurgen Klinsmann. Klinsmann has done some nice things with the team, and he certainly has strengthened the talent pool for years to come by attracting “foreign” players. However, his in-game coaching is clearly lacking, as Phillip Lahm so eloquently put in 2011, “he doesn’t do tactics.” Over the last ten months, we’ve lost competitive matches to Jamaica, Panama (both at home), Mexico (at home, with a chance to go to the Confederations Cup next year), and Guatemala. Ugh. We should be able to beat Jamaica and Guatemala with me coaching the side but somehow we didn’t. My waning hope for this team rests on the first match, against Colombia. If we can get a positive result in that game (which for me would be a draw), we could make a somewhat deep run, especially considering we’re hosts. I don’t see it, and although I think we can beat Costa Rica and possibly Paraguay, I simply don’t have the faith in Klinsmann to put any expectation behind it. I’ll be happy if we get out of the group.

Colombia is the best team in Group A; they should win it without an issue. The other three sides are set to fight for second, and it should be pretty tight. I’m going to take us for second just because I want to see it happen. There’s nothing particularly special about either Paraguay or Costa Rica, although Paraguay were finalists in the 2011 version.  Group B should be a breeze for Brazil. They could probably beat Haiti with nine men, and history suggests Peru and Ecuador have little chance of securing a point. Haiti is a clear level below the others in this group. Peru and Ecuador, two teams used to playing at high altitudes, play on June 8 in Glendale at an elevation of just 522 feet. I expect both teams to be uncomfortable there and a draw is likely, meaning second-place could come down to their goal differences in their nearly-inevitable wins against Haiti and losses against Brazil. I like Ecuador to take second.

Group C should be the tightest overall. Mexico plays their three matches in Arizona, California and Texas so they’re basically hosting as well. Their first match, June 5 against Uruguay, will be the most entertaining. Pichichi winner and constant antagonist Luis Suarez will be a menace for Uruguay, and last year’s Gold Cup winners haven’t convinced me they have the attacking power to keep up. Suarez’s fitness will play a large role in deciding this group. As of right now, I’m assuming he will be fit by ranking Uruguay fifth. If he is unable to play, I would drop them to eighth. Leicester’s Wes Morgan leads Jamaica into the tournament, runners-up to Mexico in the aforementioned Gold Cup. Jamaica isn’t very good, but their experience is in defense, so they could be tough to break down. Venezuela is a bit of a wild card but their results have been poor in qualifying and I don’t expect that to change here. Uruguay and Mexico should navigate through Group C. Group D features two of the tournament’s best sides – Argentina and Chile, who played in last year’s Copa America final – and two of its worst, Panama and Bolivia. Argentina and Chile play on June 6 in Santa Clara, each team’s first game, so we should be in for an entertaining rematch. The other two sides don’t have nearly enough talent or experience to keep up.

My pick for the tournament winner is Argentina – they have the best team and will be smarting after last year’s shootout loss to Chile in the final.

See the below table for my full predictions for the opening round. The teams are ranked 1-16 (by me) and are formatted to show the potential disparity or closeness in ranking. The recent results highlighted in green are particularly important; the ones in red you can disregard. This is because of the timing of the recent matches or the competitiveness of them. Most recent result is listed first. 

International Review - FIFA World Cup Qualification

There were a number of intriguing international results in this week's games. This was expected because the matchups were far more even than previous weeks - the first two days were primarily made up of heavy victories for the bigger countries. However, there are some results to pull out of the pile that may have long-term significance.

Result: Romania 1-4 Netherlands

What it means: The Romanians and Dutch both started with three wins from three, and this game was a test to see if the Romanians were for real after several years of domestic scandal and international turmoil. They failed - miserably. The Dutch dominated the game and showed that there is a large difference in quality between the two sides. It is not devastating for the Romanians - they are level on points with second-place Hungary, who lost to the Dutch by the same scoreline in September. Holland showed yet again that despite some of their stars aging, this is still one of the premier teams in Europe. Last year's disastrous showing at the Euros is behind them and they are a full-go for the World Cup. They will have no trouble qualifying from this group and could possibly go ten for ten.

Result: Ukraine 0-1 Montenegro

What it means: Montenegro go level on points at the top of Group H with England while Ukraine fall five points off the pace. Group H features both hosts of last summer's European Championship, but Montenegro are out to prove that their play-off appearance in the qualification for that tournament was no fluke. Montenegro are never going to overwhelm the public with their style of play, but they are very solid at the back and rarely concede more than one goal. This is a huge win to pick up away from home. For Ukraine, the first three qualification games have brought some bright spots but very poor results. Their 1-1 draw in England was a solid performance and a good result, but that was countered by a poor 0-0 draw in Moldova. Now this loss sets them back quite a bit. There is very little margin for error left for the Ukrainians if they wish to finish in the top two.

Result: Germany 4-4 Sweden

What it means: Definitely the most shocking result of the day - not because Sweden was able to gain a point, but because they trailed by four goals with a half hour remaining and somehow managed to snatch an equalizer in stoppage time. A truly improbable and spectacular comeback from the Swedes, who looked to be in a bit of trouble after struggling through a 2-1 win against the Faroes on Friday. The Germans will still be favorites in this group but questions must be asked of their defense in the second half - we know they can score but their defense was all over the place in the second half and Manuel Neuer had one of his worst games in goal. This seems like more of a wake-up call than anything for Germany. They have been progressing quickly with a very young batch of players and this could be a reminder that they need to continue working hard in order to reach their goal of winning a major trophy. Look for the Germans to improve immensely on the defensive end of the field as they win this group.

Result: Spain 1-1 France

What it means: Olivier Giroud's last-second equalizer gave France a draw in Spain, meaning a win in the return fixture would likely give the French an automatic spot in the World Cup. For the French, the performance was just as key as the result. France played with Spain with most of the match, although they were kept in it by Fabregas's missed penalty (which followed an abysmal challenge by Koscielny on Pedro). They had more possession than was expected and dominated the last twenty minutes. It's a very encouraging sign for Didier Deschamps. For Spain, they must know that a target will be on their back wherever they go, having won the last three major tournaments. Their key players should still be young enough (and effective enough) to feature at the World Cup, but games like this are a reminder

Result: Portugal 1-1 Northern Ireland

What it means: Portugal trip over a very short hurdle at home against Northern Ireland, dropping them into third in Group F. It seems that in every qualification, Portugal have a game like this - for Euro 2012 it was a 4-4 draw against Cyprus. One bad result is typically not killer, but these types of performances have been preventing Portugal from coming in first in their groups, forcing them to qualify through the playoffs. If Portugal ever want to be on the same level as their Iberian neighbors, they must be more disciplined and ruthless to take three points from this game. It's not as if this is the Northern Ireland that defeated Spain and England in the last decade. They drew with Luxembourg in their last match.

Result: USA 3-1 Guatemala

What it means: The USA are through to the next round of CONCACAF qualifying while Guatemala is out. The USA needed this win and got it - it was not as easy as it should have been but the result is what mattered. The more I see the USA, the more I find it hard to imagine them winning a game without Clint Dempsey. The man has come into his own over the last twelve months, moving into a more forward position (and thriving) at Fulham and playing the same role with the USA and Tottenham. He is by far the most important player on this team, which is a testament to his form, but also to the lack of form from the rest of the squad. Dempsey himself mentioned the team being occasionally "jet-lagged" for their away fixtures, as many more players than ever before are playing in Europe. Whatever the issue is, it must be sorted out immediately, because if the Americans don't start playing to a much higher level, they may miss out on the World Cup. While I do believe they will squeak through, temper your expectations.

Result: Bolivia 4-1 Uruguay

What it means: Lowly Bolivia hammered South American champs Uruguay, meaning they have now conceded eleven goals in their last three away fixtures in qualifying. Uruguay are now barely in the qualification places, only because Chile has been just as awful. You do see some shocks in South America but this question re-asks the questions about Uruguay's midfield. We know they have the forwards to compete with anyone but to better their fourth-place finish in the World Cup, they will need to strengthen their defensive strategy. For Bolivia, this is an unlikely lifeline. They are only four points behind with plenty of matches to go. Stranger things have happened.