2012-13 UEFA Champions League Round of 16 - Preview

The Champions League is one of the few sporting events I can maintain full attention on despite my team being eliminated. This is where it really gets fun. After the group stage, group winners are drawn against group runners-up, and the two sides play two games, one home game apiece. The aggregate winner goes through to the next round, and if there is a tie, away goals and then a shootout determines the winner.

This is typically the last round where you see less-heralded clubs still alive, although this year all of the clubs are fairly recognizable names. There will be some lopsided scores, but typically the ties are close - last year five of the eight ties were decided by a goal or less. Expect the same this year - the "minnows" are Turkish powerhouse Galatasaray and Scottish giants Celtic, versus last year's Cypriot cinderella APOEL and Swiss champs Basel. Those sides are weaker than Galatasaray and Celtic, yet both pulled off 1-0 wins at home last year, so this year is all set up to be extremely tight.

Note: This preview is for the whole aggregate, not just the first leg. The team listed first is playing the first leg at home.

GALATASARAY v SCHALKE

How GALATASARAY wins: Galatasaray showcase the form that has taken them top of the Super Lig and overpower an out-of-form Schalke. New signings Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba provide crucial experience and creativity that boost the level of the whole side. Yilmaz keeps up his scoring touch and helps send the Turks through with a couple of well-taken goals.

How SCHALKE wins: The Germans use their class to overcome their lack of form and knockout Galatasaray as Schalke's front three are a constant threat. They shrug off their disastrous domestic season and clear their minds against European opposition, returning to the form that made them so tough last year. The signing of Michel Bastos boosts the attack of an already potent side and opportunities are plentiful for Schalke.

Key players: FW Burak Yilmaz (Galatasaray), FW Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (Schalke)

As joint-leading scorer in the competition, Yilmaz will be expected to provide the finishing touch for the Turks. His two goals at the weekend show his form this season and he is facing the fifth-worst defense in Germany. His influence will be key to Galatasaray's attack, as it is unknown what role Drogba will play at this point. Huntelaar is the opposing marksman, but his strong goalscoring record last season has not continued. He hasn't scored for Schalke since the end of November and his slump has coincided with Schalke's troubles. Huntelaar will need to return to his best for his side to have hopes of going through. 

Who will advance: Galatasaray. Galatasaray's transfer moves have shown their ambition to succeed on the continent, but this was a good team to begin with. The added experience may or may not help, but neither Drogba are Sneijder are the personality type that could ruin a locker room, so these moves are unlikely to hurt. Schalke are enduring an awful run of results, and are currently at a troubling tenth place in the league. Lewis Holtby left early for Tottenham and now Huntelaar has an eye problem, so we are looking at a weaker, out-of-form squad than last year's third-place Bundesliga side. The first-place finish in Group B would seem to suggest that Schalke can put their domestic troubles aside, but things have gone worse as the season continues. I'm not convinced that Galatasaray have enough talent as a whole to make a deep run this year, but out-of-form Schalke looks ripe for the picking.

Prediction: Galatasaray 4-2 Schalke

CELTIC v JUVENTUS

How CELTIC wins: Celtic plays with the same coolness and discipline they displayed against Barcelona in the group stage, limiting Juventus to attempts from distance. They steal a victory in front of a raucous crowd at Celtic Park and hang on in Italy to stun the defending Serie A champs. With the SPL all but locked up and without the threat of Rangers, the Hoops can focus their best efforts into making a run in Europe, and their fresher players take the game to a tired Juve side mired in a close domestic race with Napoli.

How JUVENTUS wins: The Old Lady come to Scotland and show off their superior quality, controlling the game and dominating possession. They shrug off the tough atmosphere in the first leg and play at the tempo that led them to an undefeated league season last year. Juve take their chances and avoid being frustrated by a side that will set up to defend. As favorites, the Italians quickly dash thoughts of another upset and cruise through to the quarterfinals.

Key players: GK Fraser Forster (Celtic), CM Andrea Pirlo (Juventus)

Forster was superb in the group stage and he will be put to the test again by Juve, likely early and often. To pull the upset, it is always important for the goalkeeper to be in top form, and Forster will be relied upon to keep Juve off of the board and keep his side in the tie as long as possible. On the other side, Pirlo will be pulling the strings behind Juventus's attack, and as one of the top creative midfielders in the world, he will be quite the challenge to Celtic's defense. Expect Juve's chance creation (and conversion) to be heavily correlated to Pirlo's play.

Who will advance: Juventus. Celtic's run has been a fairy tale story, as the Scottish champions went toe-to-toe with Barcelona and grabbed the second qualifying spot in Group G. Scottish football was in peril after the collapse of Rangers and Celtic have certainly done well to represent their country in this competition. We rarely see the minnows of the competition get past this round, and while Celtic are no minnows in Scotland, they are on the continental stage with a seasoned Juventus side as their opponents. It is difficult to see them going through. Juve should not overlook the Scots because they would be made to pay, but they are the stronger side by a good margin and should find themselves in the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Juventus 4-2 Celtic

ARSENAL v BAYERN MUNICH

How ARSENAL wins: The Gunners use their spectacular European home record to take a lead to Germany where they avoid another away capitulation and hold off Bayern. Walcott, Giroud and Podolski take their chances and Arsenal's possession play unsettles Bayern, who are sitting high above the Bundesliga and have not faced many tough tests. The patched up defense holds up enough to keep them in it but their superior attacking play ultimately takes them through.

How BAYERN MUNICH wins: Bayern uses their attacking threats to crush Arsenal's leaky defense.  Their defensive unit, which has conceded just seven goals in twenty-one league games, keeps out a Gunners side already searching for goals a bit lately. Bayern use their experience and feed from the disappointment of last year's defeat to catapult them into the last eight.

Key players: FW Theo Walcott (Arsenal), FW Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich)

Walcott is Arsenal's most important player and we don't even know where he will play yet - he could be in the center forward position or out on the wing with Giroud in the middle. Walcott has been inconsistent for Arsenal but has improved this season, especially when placed in a further forward attacking position. He needs to put away his chances for Arsenal to go through. Muller has been a key player in Bayern's side for a few years now, and he will be troublesome for Arsenal's defense. Bayern will look to get Muller and Gomez in behind the center backs, while both players are also aerial threats. Muller's attacking play will be hard to stop.

Who will advance: Bayern Munich. These two huge clubs are at different points right now - Arsenal are in a bit of a transition and are fighting to qualify for this competition next year, while Bayern were in the final last year and hold a huge lead in the Bundesliga. Bayern have been in the final in two of the past three years (lost both) and after last year's huge disappointment in the final, they will be dying to avenge their defeat. Arsenal have been improving, but they face a huge problem in defense as Monreal is cup-tied and Kieran Gibbs is still injured. That leaves moving Thomas Vermaelen to left-back, which is not his optimal position, or playing the heavily-criticized Andre Santos, which is hopefully not in Wenger's plans. He thankfully is not, as he was sent to Gremio on loan. Either way, it's a back four that is unprepared to deal with the attacking prowess of this Bayern side. There are threats all over the field and I don't see Arsenal being able to keep up during a two-legged tie.

Prediction: Bayern 6-3 Arsenal

SHAKHTAR DONETSK v BORUSSIA DORTMUND

How SHAKHTAR DONETSK wins: Shakhtar's dominant domestic form carries over to the Champions League. The Ukrainians show how they made it out of a tough group by putting constant pressure on Dortmund in Donetsk and they hold on with another solid away performance in the second leg. Their defense does not allow Dortmund's creative players any space in the attacking third and limit giveaways from the back.

How BORUSSIA DORTMUND wins: As perhaps the best team in the tournament so far, Dortmund prove their remaining doubters wrong by shrugging off a rugged Shakhtar side. Gotze, Lewandowski and Reus are brilliant in attack and provide a constant threat both through the middle and down the wings.Their large deficit to Bayern in the Bundesliga allows them to keep the lineup fresh for European games and display their best football.

Key players: FW Luiz Adriano (Shakhtar Donetsk), FW Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund)

Adriano will be relied upon more after Willian, who led the team in scoring in the Champions League, left for Russia. Adriano is a talented forward and has the pace and power to danger Dortmund's goal. The Germans have a number of important attackers, but Reus may be the best - his addition to the team was a large factor in their first-place finish in Group D. He is pacy and can pick out passes for his superb teammates on the front line. Shakhtar will have to deny Reus space to maneuever if they are to keep Dortmund at bay.

Who will advance: Borussia Dortmund. Shakhtar may not be a household name everywhere in Europe, but this is a very, very strong team. They have won seventeen of eighteen games domestically and came very close to winning a group containing the Italian, English and Danish champions. However, they sold Willian to Anzhi in January, and his loss will be felt in this tie. They are no longer as potent up top and do not pose as much of a threat to Dortmund as they did to Juve and Chelsea. His absence will not only be felt in the attacking third, but in defense, as Dortmund will spend more time with the ball than they would have before. Shakhtar are not a one-man show, but Dortmund will exploit their new weakness. The Germans have proven to be a top side and now have the big game experience to go through. Expect to see Dortmund in the last eight, but it won't be easy.

Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Shakhtar Donetsk

AC MILAN v BARCELONA

How AC MILAN wins: The attacking players find space against Barca's occasionally shaky back line, take their chances and constantly pressure the Spaniards. Barcelona miss a number of easier scoring chances and Milan make them pay at the other end. Allegri sets them up to counter attack and the team is clinical when given any glimmer of light.

How BARCELONA wins: The best team in the world plays their game - the Catalans control possession, the chances, and the scoreline while knocking out Milan for the second year in a row. Barca limit counter attacking opportunities and hold the ball enough to frustrate Milan's myriad of attacking players. The defense limits mistakes and does not allow any space in midfield, suffocating their opponents in typical fashion.

Key players: FW Mario Balotelli (AC Milan), FW Lionel Messi (Barcelona)

You never truly know which Balotelli you will get on a game-to-game (or day-to-day) basis. It is indisputable that when he is in the mood, he is one of the top strikers on the continent and has the ability to create a goal out of nothing. But as easily as Milan could get a spectacular goal, they could get a red card - Mario's temperament is always an issue and could be a deciding factor. We all know Messi is Barcelona's star and his goal scoring record is superb in Europe. Against tougher opposition, Barcelona struggle without Messi's goals, as his career-long barren spell against Chelsea cost them dearly last year. Messi should find space against this back line and if he displays his normal ability, Barca should find themselves going through. 

Who will advance: Barcelona. Barcelona are the most dominant team in the world right now and it would be foolish to think they would trip at this hurdle. It is not an impossible task for Milan but their weakness over the course of the season has broadcast the lack of depth in their squad after last summer's departures. Milan had a better team last year and were still beaten without too much trouble, so while you cannot completely rule them out because of the individual star power, it is difficult to see them going through. Couple that with the killer form Barca has been in this year, and all signs point to another early exit for the Italians.

Prediction: Barcelona 6-2 AC Milan

REAL MADRID v MANCHESTER UNITED

How REAL MADRID wins: Real's superior midfield takes over the tie, breaking up United's link up play and holding large periods of possession. Ozil and Ronaldo dominate the attacking third, creating chances and scoring goals against United's gaping back four. Varane continues his strong form and helps pacify any defensive concerns for Jose Mourinho.

How MANCHESTER UNITED wins: United's attacking threats control the chances and take advantage of mistakes from Real's midfield. Rooney and Van Persie run rampant up top and keep the pressure off of the back four and nervy goalie situation. The midfield does just enough to allow the attackers to counter and goals are coming from everyone in the side.

Key players: GK Diego Lopez (Real Madrid), FW Robin Van Persie (Manchester United)

Iker Casillas will miss the tie due to injury so Real were able to sign Diego Lopez as an emergency replacement. Lopez is a formidable replacement, but does not have near the class of Casillas. Even though Casillas has been at less than his best this year, there will be a huge spotlight on Real's goal, and any goalkeeping error from either side could be especially costly. Van Persie is United's marksman, and his stellar form from last year has showed no signs of stopping since moving to Manchester. We all know how he can finish, and for United to go through, he will have to be on top of his game.

Who will advance: Real Madrid.  I simply don't believe that United's defense can keep Real under five goals in two games. This will be a very tense tie, especially considering the big name matchup, and is probably the hardest to call of the eight. The injury to Casillas adds an extra wrinkle as United will need to score, and without their world class goalie, Real are weaker at the back than prior years. United are stronger up front with Van Persie, but Group H was so weak that I can't even give too much merit to their improved European performance this year. Fergie's boys have been weak against Spanish opposition - they were completely outplayed in two Champions League finals against Barcelona, and were crushed in the Europa League last year by Athletic Bilbao. The speedier Spanish midfield play gives English teams trouble, and despite Madrid being undermanned and not on top form, they have the edge.

Prediction:  Real Madrid 5-4 Manchester United

VALENCIA v PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN

How VALENCIA wins: Valencia immediately put the pressure on PSG and force their opponents to chase the tie from its beginning. They take advantage of mistakes from their opponents as Soldado and Jonas link up to create good opportunities on the counter. Their attacking play pins PSG back and their opponents succumb to the high expectations surrounding their summer spending spree.

How PSG wins: A team that has still showed occasional signs of a lack of chemistry has everything start to click. PSG have a more talented side and if the players continue the form that took them to the top of Ligue 1, their class should take them through. Ibrahimovic and Lavezzi terrorize an average Valencia back line while France's best defensive side holds off attacks with ease.

Key players: FW Roberto Soldado (Valencia), FW Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Paris Saint-Germain)

Soldado has been the brightest spot for a down Valencia team and it will be up to him to finish when they are able to attack. An experienced player who has been capped internationally six times, Soldado will be a threat, especially early in the first leg as Valencia look to jump in front at home. Zlatan is one of the best strikers in the world, if not the best - his skills are unlike anyone on the earth. He has twenty goals in twenty league games for PSG this season, fitting seamlessly into his new side. Valencia will be hard-pressed to keep him from netting at least two goals over the tie.

Who will advance: Paris Saint-Germain. PSG's spending spree this summer was not a waste - the side are top of the league and the parts are starting to fit together. It is hard for a team to gel together quickly, so expectations on this team should be tempered. But signs are good for this team to make a deep run if they can keep all of their men on the field (five red cards already this season in Ligue 1). Valencia have played well in Europe despite poor domestic form, but this team does not have enough experience to knock off PSG. Valencia are traditionally tough at home and this tie will not be a breeze for PSG, but expect the French club to go through with little drama.

Prediction: Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 Valencia

FC PORTO v MALAGA

How PORTO wins: Porto's substantial home advantage shows against inexperienced Malaga. Martinez, who has been a seamless replacement for Hulk having scored nineteen goals in eighteen league games, continues to score when he wants. Porto build up an advantage at home and make it difficult for Malaga to build momentum in the tie.

How MALAGA wins: The club could be the biggest surprise in the knockout round and as group winners, they continue to impress. La Liga's best defensive team clamps down on Porto, who have continually lost their attacking players to other clubs in recent years. Their strong away record sets them up well to win the tie in Spain and continue to the quarters.

Key players: FW Jackson Martinez (FC Porto), MF Isco (Malaga)

Martinez has stepped into the side after Hulk's move to Zenit and has shown no sign of relinquishing his place. He has a great record in the league but has not been as consistent in Europe. It will be up to him to break down one of Europe's toughest defenses. After signing a new contract with Malaga, Isco has continued to produce the type of displays that earned him interest from other clubs. His brace at the weekend took Malaga to another win, so he will be a key figure during both legs.

Who will advance: FC Porto. This is the other tie where I can't name the favorite - both sides are playing well but are comparatively under the radar. Malaga's biggest talking point has been their debt rather than their play, and Porto have been lacking in star power since Hulk and Axel Witsel moved to Zenit this summer. Porto always seem to reload seamlessly, and this year is no different - they recorded thirteen points in Group A and are joint-top in the Portuguese league with Benfica. Malaga have done very well to get to this point, but the loss of Nacho Monreal could be crucial in this tie. It will be tight, there will not be many chances, but Porto look a little better at the moment and may just barely squeak through.

Prediction: FC Porto 2-1 Malaga

Evaluating Galatasaray and Looking Ahead to the Knockout Stage

The UEFA Champions League knockout stage starts in two weeks after the seasonal winter break, so teams are starting to prepare for their ties. The transfer window slams shut at the end of January so clubs are making last minute additions and subtractions to their squads. Nearly every club in Europe has something to play for and are shaping up to achieve their goals for the season.

The most exciting moves have come from an unlikely source - Turkey's Galatasaray. Turkish football has suffered under UEFA investigations of match-fixing, including a European ban last year to Galatasaray's arch-rival Fenerbahce. Both clubs share the lead with 18 domestic titles, while Gala holds a small advantage in terms of fan base. Despite the recent turmoil, this is a huge club and showed its prestige by bringing in Wesley Sneijder and Didier Drogba this month. Both are Champions League winners and would be included in anyone's list of greatest players of the last decade. Both players are far from the form that brought them those honors, but are still great assets for a team with little experience against the titans of Europe.

Will Drogba and Sneijder make a big impact? For a team with a number of Turkish internationals, including the current joint-lead scorer in Europe, Burak Yilmaz, as well as experienced foreign players like Felipe Melo and Thomas Ujfalusi, it is certainly intriguing. I don't believe these moves were made in an attempt to win the Champions League, but to strengthen the squad for both Europe and the Super Lig. Gala have a five point lead over Fener and it is just as important to top their rivals as it is to achieve success in Europe (if not more so). Having depth in the squad is especially important at this time of the year, and Drogba and Sneijder will certainly provide that, but their impact will likely be minimal. Drogba is not fit enough to start for Ivory Coast in the African Cup of Nations and it has been two years since Sneijder displayed top form. Fans expecting a long run in Europe this year are likely to be disappointed, as anything further than victory over Schalke would be a shock. However, the moves show Galatasaray's ambition to compete on the continental stage, so they could be tough competitors for years to come.

The Milan-Barcelona tie also became more interesting through the transfer window. Barcelona have been rampant in La Liga and will be heavy favorites, but AC have recently hit a solid run of form and brought in maverick striker Mario Balotelli to aid the attacking front. Balotelli's impact is completely unknown, mainly because he is a complete unknown, so we will have to see. But as always with Mario, if he can focus his energy on his footballing talents rather than his psychotic antics, he will be difficult to stop. Milan's only hope in the tie is that they can score enough times to beat Barcelona - I would guess that number would be around five or six, minimum. Balotelli, the in-form Stephan El Shaarawy, Robinho, and Giampaolo Pazzini provide solid options for Massimiliano Allegri and they may push Barca further than last year. It will still take a near-flawless performance to knock out the 2011 champs, who are playing at full throttle right now.

Full preview of the Champions League coming next week - I want to see the final transfer moves before making the final write-up. Will there be another APOEL this year?

Barclays Premier League - Mid Season Review

Current Standings

1) Manchester United

2) Manchester City

3) Chelsea

4) Tottenham

5) Arsenal

6) Everton

7) West Brom

8) Stoke

9) Liverpool

10) Swansea

11) Norwich

12) West Ham

13) Sunderland

14) Fulham

15) Newcastle

16) Wigan

17) Aston Villa

18) Southampton

19) Reading

20) QPR

As expected, the Manchester clubs have been the table-toppers for the majority of the season, with Manchester United currently holding a seven-point edge over rivals Manchester City. The race is not completely over for the other clubs, as Chelsea and Tottenham are not completely out of it yet. It does look like another two-horse race, and United have a big advantage from their win at City.

Team to Rise Up the Table: Aston Villa

Things are very bleak for the Villans nowadays as they have shipped an astounding fifteen goals over their last three games while also failing to score. Injuries to key players Darren Bent, Richard Dunne and Gabby Agbonlahor (among others) have forced manager Paul Lambert into starting an extraordinarily young side. Despite some early success, this is not a sustainable strategy in the gritty Premier League, where experience is often a huge influence on a club’s place in the table. Villa’s youngsters have the talent to compete in this league, but they need their older players to help grind out results. Fortunately, these players will not be hurt forever, and I expect the return of players from injury to provide a major boost. After last year’s dreadful season under Alex McLeish, owner Randy Lerner will be desperate to improve the standing of his side and may buy some experienced players when the transfer window opens January 1st. I don’t see a dramatic change for Villa, but this team has more talent on its roster than their place suggests. Expect them to move up the table and avoid a relegation dogfight into the latter stages of the season.

Team to Move Down the Table: Stoke

The popular pick here is likely West Brom – but Stoke’s results seem to be a bit less sustainable than those of the Baggies. I don’t see a major decline from Stoke; Tony Pulis has built a sustainable model for the club since their promotion in 2008 and the Britannia has always been a tough place for Premier League teams to play. However, Stoke’s highest finish was 11^th place and they have finished in 12^th, 13^th and 14^th in their other three BPL seasons. This team could be more talented than many of Pulis’s other nit-and-grit sides, but nonetheless plays a physical, bruising style – Stoke’s leading goal scorer hasn’t topped twenty goals in this century. The team has scored just twenty one goals in twenty Premier League games this season, but do hold the best defensive record in the division. Don’t expect the Potters to slip too far, but a finish more aligned with their historical results should be in the cards.

The Final Two Champions League Spots

I think it’s fair to say that United and City are virtual locks for a minimum fourth-placed finish, so the final two places are in question. Chelsea seem to be putting it together as well – an initial slow start under Rafa Benitez has been quelled by some stunning attacking football. The fourth place spot is the most debatable, as there up to five teams to be considered as realistic contenders. I’m going to leave my preseason pick (Liverpool) out of it for now, as they are quite a distance back and aren’t playing nearly well enough to make a run right now. 

That leaves four sides to consider – Arsenal, Everton, Tottenham, and West Bromwich Albion. Arsenal have been in the Champions League places every year and despite some early turmoil at the club, the Gunners have improved greatly since the embarrassing Capital One Cup exit to Bradford. Cazorla has been a magician in the middle, Walcott looks comfortable in the striker’s role and the midfield has been boosted by the return of Jack Wilshere. Arsenal still have a leaky defense but should be considered favorites for a top-four finish among these clubs. Their cross-town rivals, Tottenham, currently sit above them in the table and will be a serious threat to capture a place in next year’s Champions League. After being snubbed last year despite a fourth place finish, Spurs also endured a slow start before starting to shine under Andre Villas-Boas. Tottenham and Arsenal look even on paper to me, but the experience of Arsenal gives them a slight edge in the Premier League. Tottenham are ahead in the table now but expect these two to be close to the conclusion of the season.

The last two sides are relative outsiders to the top quarter of the table. Everton have been a historically slow-starting side, but this year got off to a great start, leading fans to believe it could be the year to make a run at the Champions League places. David Moyes is one of the Premier League’s best managers and Everton have a number of star players who can sustain the current run of results. The suspension of Marouane Fellaini and injuries have dampened the outlook for the Toffees but if they can have a typical second-half Everton performance, they will be contenders. Lastly, West Brom are the true underdogs as their top-half presence is a surprise to most. They have defeated a number of good sides at the Hawthorns and have played a very positive style throughout the season. That being said, this is the least experienced or proven side in the top half of the table. Their attacking trio of Shane Long, Romelu Lukaku and Peter Odemwingie will pose a threat to any defense in the league. I don’t see West Brom being able to sustain a European place, but don’t expect a major drop off from the Baggies either. 

Relegation: Who Has Hope?

Of course mathematically every team has hope of survival at this stage of the season, but which teams could we actually see climb out of the relegation zone and escape? Reading and Southampton were expected to struggle in their respective returns to the top flight, but QPR’s inclusion would have been a surprise after a number of big-name players were brought to the club this summer. To say it has been a disaster at Loftus Road is a mere understatement. The squad is filled with overpaid, underachieving, mediocre footballers who did not come to play for former manager Mark Hughes and have only slightly improved under Harry Redknapp – both proven Premier League managers. When you consider the size of the contracts handed out to these players, it isn’t as surprising as initially thought to see the R’s at the bottom of the table. All hope is not lost – they aren’t too far from safety, and if Redknapp is able to transform pieces of the squad, they could be of the caliber expected at the beginning of the season. 

Reading and Southampton are in unfamiliar territory – both clubs have experience in the top flight but not recently, and both players and managers are inexperienced at this level. Reading’s Jimmy Kebe even called the Royals a “good Championship team” in response to a question about the club’s transfer policy over the summer. You can’t really disagree. Neither of the clubs brought in a number of quality players this summer (although Southampton did splurge on Gaston Ramirez) and are now battling it out to stay alive for another season. Both teams have defensive issues, but I give Southampton a slight edge at survival because of their attacking playmakers. Reading need to strengthen the squad during the transfer window or they will almost certainly go down. 

Liverpool

I decided to dedicate an entire section to Liverpool because they have yet again made me feel like a fool for picking them to place fourth. I don’t know what the expectations were from Liverpool fans but I certainly expected them to be far better than they are. The most worrying part is that the same problems they had under Roy Hodgson still persist – they don’t score enough goals from their chances and they don’t have enough scoring threats on the pitch. Luis Suarez has been their lone threat for over a year, and despite his at times brilliant (think the equalizer against Newcastle) play, the Reds have been constantly looking for someone to get them a goal. To be mid table at this point in this season is a huge concern for Brendan Rodgers, as his side is more talented than his Swansea side was, yet is performing no better. 

What can they do? For one, they need to buy a striker – the injury to Fabio Borini and the loan departure of Andy Carroll have left Suarez as the only attacking threat, and he simply cannot do it alone every game. Midfield is also a concern, as Stewart Downing is not a name that should be reoccurring on a top-four side’s team sheet. The defense isn’t bad, nor is it superb, so reinforcements would be helpful there as well, but the main prerogative has to be obtaining a true striker. Liverpool will finish higher than they are right now, but it’s hard to see them push for a Champions League spot without major reinforcements. It’s too early to tell if Rodgers is the right man, but the pressure will certainly mount if the Reds don’t start making a serious charge soon.

The Rafa Effect

Throughout Rafa Benitez's first three home fixtures in charge, the chant "there's only one Di Matteo" rang throughout Stamford Bridge several times a game. If I was there, I would have gladly joined. The decision to replace the man who had won Chelsea its first Champions League crown less than four months into the new season is one of Roman Abramovich's most questionable moves. It was even more undesirable when considering his replacement was Rafa Benitez, the man who had voiced his displeasure with Chelsea fans numerous times during his tenure with Liverpool.

If there was any logical methodology in hiring Rafa, it would be that he brings a better defensive approach, and he had an existing successful relationship with Fernando Torres. Getting Torres going had been the unsolvable puzzle for each Chelsea manager, and reuniting him with his old boss appears to be his last chance with the club. The team had also become uncharacteristically mistake-prone and flimsy at the back, and simple mistakes were costing the team results. If Rafa could institute his defensive style and reignite the fire under Torres, the switch would prove successful.

Although initial results were poor, Rafa's effect on the team can now be properly gauged. Defensively, the team is greatly improved. Chelsea conceded two goals or more in seven of Di Matteo's last nine games in charge, while they have conceded two goals or more just once in Rafa's first nine games, including three clean sheets. The decision to move David Luiz to midfield has been a key switch. Luiz has loads of talent and a wide skill set, but he has proven time and time again that he makes too many silly errors to be a central defender in the Premier League. In a holding midfield position, Luiz can take the chances he takes as a center back, but have the cover of the defense in case he makes a mistake. The results have been good - Cahill and Ivanovic have been strong in the center and Luiz has showed his attacking skills with numerous through balls and the wonderful free kick against Aston Villa. Azpilicueta has been strong down the right hand side, whipping in crosses for the forward line to attack, while providing a bit more pace than Ivanovic did in that spot. As a unit, the defense looks far more compact even without the experience of John Terry.

The relationship between Rafa and Torres was widely discussed following the former's appointment, with the hope being that Rafa could trigger the lagging form that plagued the No. 9 throughout his time at Chelsea. Since the switch, Torres has looked far more pacy and hungry for goals. He has scored seven goals in nine games under Benitez, and Chelsea have won every game he scored in. It makes you think twice about the upcoming window - the rumor is that Chelsea would purchase Falcao. Clearly, Falcao is a world-class player, but with Torres in this kind of form, it may not be necessary to spend so much at this time. Waiting until the summer could be a better move than splashing the cash now. But as always with Chelsea, that decision is up to Abramovich.

Chelsea fans are never going to completely warm to Benitez - the Liverpool days have done too much damage to completely forget his past. But the steady improvement of the side since he took over, and the possible addition of players in January, could turn the tide further in Rafa's favor. It's time for Chelsea fans to give him a chance - the Premier League is far from over.

UEFA Champions League - Matchday 5

A quick run-down of this week's games - I expect most of these ties to be very close. Some teams have already been eliminated, but most have it all to play for and are fighting to stay alive. It makes for some aggressive, tight football that usually culminates in more goals as teams get more desperate for points. With the quality of the teams in this competition, this could be the best matchday of the group stage.

HEADLINER: Juventus v. Chelsea

Juventus host Chelsea trailing both the Blues and Shakhtar (who visit Nordsjaelland) by a point. Juve have a much greater sense of urgency to win this game, while Chelsea would be happy with a point, as a very winnable home fixture against Nordjaelland awaits. A loss and a Shakhtar win would eliminate the Old Lady ahead of next matchday's showdown in Ukraine. Chelsea must not play this fixture too carefully, as a loss and a Shakhtar win would set them to be eliminated with a draw in Donetsk between the two. I expect Chelsea to play on the counter but also to show some conviction going forward, especially considering how fragile their defense has been without John Terry. Juventus gave them a ton of trouble at Stamford Bridge and it may behoove the Blues to start off on the front foot rather than waiting for the Italians to come at them. I expect lots of chances given Chelsea's attacking prowess and their messy defense. An early goal would force Juventus to attack with much more force, which could be provided by in-form attackers Juan Mata and Eden Hazard. Juventus have stepped up their goal-scoring recently as well, scoring ten goals in their two games prior to Saturday. This is the game to watch of the week.

Prediction: Juventus 2-2 Chelsea

UPSET ALERT: Anderlecht v. AC Milan

Anderlecht gave Milan all they could handle on Matchday 1, leaving with a point in a 0-0 draw. Milan have been in peril all season long, and the issues within the club only seem to be escalating. The Belgians are just a point behind and a victory would put them in pole position to reach the knockout stage. Milan desperately need something to turn the club's fortunes around, and their only win in the competition so far came away from home (in Russia). I don't see it. This looks like a lost season for Milan, with the only bright spot being the emergence of Stephan El Shaarawy as a legitimate goal scorer. After last matchday's win over Zenit, Anderlecht could be this year's Pot 4 team to go through. Anderlecht have a number of experienced players who will not be afraid to attack the struggling Milan defense. Christian Abbiati has come under particular scrutiny for his role in their concession of five goals in the last two games. Anderlecht should be rocking for this game. Upset alert on full blast for the Italians.

Prediction: Anderlecht 1-0 Milan

GROUP D WILL BE INTERESTING IF...

Manchester City and Ajax both win at home, against Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund respectively. Dubbed the "group of death" of this season's competition, the matches have failed to disappoint; however, the dramatics have, as City and Ajax both need wins today to have any chance of going through. Unfortunately, I can't see it happening. City have been miserable in Europe this season and now must beat arguably the best team in the world to have any chance. Last weekend's thrashing of Aston Villa will provide some spark but there is an obvious difference in quality and organization between Villa and a Mourinho-coached Madrid. Ajax played well against City, and are vastly underrated - if they'd finished the job and won at the Etihad, this group would have a whole different complexion. But Dortmund have been very strong in Europe this year on both sides of the field, so it will be very difficult for the Dutch. It looks like we're heading for a boring final matchday, as I expect Madrid and Dortmund to frustrate their opponents and acquire the necessary results to all but send them through. I give Ajax a better chance of grabbing a win and spicing up the group, but two draws could be on the cards for this week's Group D fixtures.

Predictions: Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid, Ajax 0-0 Dortmund

Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses): 

BATE - Lille : DRAW
Valencia - Bayern Munich (4) : DRAW
Juventus (7) - Chelsea (3) : DRAW
FC Nordjaelland - Shakhtar Donetsk : AWAY WIN
Spartak Moscow - Barcelona (2) : DRAW
Benfica (21) - Celtic (25) : HOME WIN
Zenit (15) - Malaga (14) : HOME WIN
Anderlecht - AC Milan (18) : HOME WIN
Galatasaray - Manchester United (6) : HOME WIN
CFR Cluj - Braga : AWAY WIN
Manchester City (5) - Real Madrid (1) : DRAW
Ajax Amsterdam - Borussia Dortmund (8) : DRAW
Dynamo Kiev - PSG (9) : AWAY WIN
FC Porto (23) - Dinamo Zagreb : HOME WIN
Arsenal (12) - Montpellier : HOME WIN
Schalke (10) - Olympiakos : HOME WIN

UEFA Champions League - Matchday 4

Last matchday featured a number of upset specials. The early upset darling, BATE, were run over by Valencia to extend their point-less run against Spanish opposition to six games. However, Dortmund knocked off Real Madrid, Schalke won at the Emirates (boom), Ajax dismantled Manchester City and Shakhtar beat Chelsea. The biggest shock to me was Ajax's win, not because of the result itself but because of the performance. They were better for nearly the whole match, as City's goal came against the run of play. Rather than falter, Ajax responded with three second half goals to stun the City hierarchy. One point from three is not good enough for Roberto's men - I don't care who you're playing.

Matchday 4 is a reverse of Matchday 3 - so it's the same matchups but at the opposite team's home field. For some ties, it makes an even better matchup, as AC Milan and Malaga should be very tight, as will Dynamo Kiev and Porto, among others. However, the better sides that played away from home last week should have a much easier go of it at home - Valencia, City, and Benfica should all come away with three points this week. Lots of points to think about, though.

HEADLINER: Schalke 04 v. Arsenal

I'm not going to choose a game from Group D this week (although I know Real Madrid and Dortmund should be a great game) because I think you can take a lot more from this tie. Arsenal are in a perilous state at the current time and in much need of a victory to retake first place in Group B and settle concerns from fans. Schalke are performing very well at the moment and should have nine points in the group, but conceded late against Montpellier. After winning at the Emirates, Schalke will have nothing to fear against the Gunners, who have scored just seven goals in six Premier League games away from home. Despite having the best defensive record in the Premier League, Arsenal's defense has proven mistake-prone during the last few years, and I expect nothing different in Germany. Schalke are rotating the squad quite a bit recently to keep players fresh, but should have most of their first team on the field Tuesday. Expect the Germans to come away with a minimum of a point but more likely take all three points to send Arsenal further into the mire. An Olympiakos win could threaten a knockout stage appearance as well.

Prediction: Schalke 2-1 Arsenal

UPSET ALERT: Braga v. Manchester United

Manchester United are on upset alert again in Portugal where the Red Devils have historically struggled. Braga have been in the best run of their club's history, but have dropped two of three so far in the Champions League. They moved through United's defense easily in the first half before capitulating in the second during one of United's vintage comebacks. United struggled in Romania and still came out with a win, but this game sets up as a trap game after big domestic wins over Chelsea and Arsenal, as well as a comfortable lead at the top of Group H. Braga are not at the level of their domestic rivals but can compete with bigger clubs, reaching the Europa League final two years ago after defeating Liverpool, Dynamo Kiev and Benfica before losing narrowly to Porto in the final. United may take this game too lightly and their defense is not strong enough to grind out a result in a difficult place to play. Braga could grab a point in this contest and could maybe nick a win with a solid performance.

Prediction: Braga 1-1 Manchester United

OLD RIVALS: Celtic v. Barcelona

Celtic and Barcelona face off again in Glasgow after the Catalans snatched a 2-1 victory in injury time after going a goal down in the first half. It was a surprisingly close encounter, as many of Celtic's fans could hardly believe they were in the game for so long. Unfortunately for the Hoops, the result means the performance was all for nothing, although they still do hold second place in Group G. That type of performance is very difficult to duplicate against Barcelona, and although Celtic are historically very tough at Celtic Park, Barcelona should be a huge favorite in this one. The goals could be flying in left and right but I expect a more subdued game. Celtic will set up to strike on the counter while Barcelona typically dominate possession. I like to root for the underdog but it would take an even better performance for Celtic to grab a share of the spoils on Wednesday. Barcelona won't take them so lightly this time.

Prediction: Celtic 0-2 Barcelona

Full Predictions (Rankings in parentheses): 

Real Madrid (1) - Borussia Dortmund (8) : HOME WIN
AC Milan (18) - Malaga (14) : DRAW
Schalke (10) - Arsenal (12) : HOME WIN
Manchester City (5) - Ajax Amsterdam : HOME WIN
PSG (9) - Dinamo Zagreb : HOME WIN (potentially very ugly)
Olympiakos - Montpellier : DRAW
Dynamo Kiev - FC Porto (23) : HOME WIN
Anderlecht - Zenit (15) : AWAY WIN
Celtic (25) - Barcelona (2) : AWAY WIN
Valencia - BATE : HOME WIN
Juventus (7) - FC Nordsjaelland : HOME WIN
Bayern Munich (4) - LOSC Lille : HOME WIN (also potentially very ugly)
Braga - Manchester United (6) : DRAW
Chelsea (3) - Shakhtar Donetsk : HOME WIN
CFR Cluj - Galatasaray : AWAY WIN (no logical reasoning, just instinct)
Benfica (21) - Spartak Moscow : HOME WIN

UEFA Top 25 - November 6

With the Champions League coming up it's time for a new Top 25. There's a degree of stability at the top and a somewhat major drop-off after number 8 (Dortmund) and even more so after 11 (Atletico). Teams 12-25 are good but are not on the same level as the top 11. Look for this gap to increase in the table as the season wears on.

Distribution: England 6, Italy 4, Spain 4, France 3, Germany 3, Portugal 2, Russia 2, Scotland 1

1 (1) Real Madrid CF (ESP)
2 (2) FC Barcelona (ESP)
3 (3) Chelsea FC (ENG)
4 (4) Bayern Munich (GER)
5 (5) Manchester City FC (ENG)
6 (7) Manchester United FC (ENG)
7 (6) Juventus FC (ITA) 
8 (8) Borussia Dortmund (GER)
9 (12) Paris Saint-Germain FC (FRA)
10 (13) Schalke 04 (GER)
11 (10) Atletico de Madrid (ESP)
12 (9) Arsenal FC (ENG)
13 (11) SSC Napoli (ITA)
14 (14) Malaga CF (ESP)
15 (15) Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
16 (16) Olympique de Marseille (FRA)
17 (19) CSKA Moscow (RUS)
18 (17) AC Milan (ITA) 
19 (18) Olympique de Lyon (FRA)
20 (NR) FC Inter Milan (ITA)
21 (20) Everton FC (ENG)
22 (21) SL Benfica (POR)
23 (NR) FC Porto (POR)
24 (23) Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG)
25 (25) Celtic FC (SCO)

Out of rankings: 22) SS Lazio (ITA), 24) BATE Borisov (BLR)

Notes:

1-10: Chelsea, Bayern, and Juventus all lost their first ties of the season to high-quality rivals Manchester United, Inter, and Bayer Leverkusen respectively. Curiously, all of those losses came at home.. I really like what I see from Schalke, despite the recent loss to lowly Hoffenheim, where they rested a number of starters. Their historic win at Arsenal was a mark of their own quality rather than Arsenal's obvious shortcomings. What was a hot start for a talented team is shaping into a season where they can contend in both the Champions League and Bundesliga for a long while.. PSG seem to be finally putting it together, going top of Ligue 1, while bouncing back to take second in Group A. Many doubt PSG's credentials despite their influx of talent, likening their rise to Manchester City, citing domestic success but struggles in Europe. The teams were built differently but you can certainly see the similarities in thrusting a bunch of skilled players together too quickly. PSG will struggle against more experienced clubs.. As for City, they are still struggling in Europe a year later. Rock bottom of Group D, it would take a near miracle to take them through. Ajax took them apart in Amsterdam, and this team just does not feel as potent as last year's champions. Fulham and Everton have both scored more goals in the Premier League.. Barcelona have been stunningly consistent this season result-wise, despite defensive lapses against Deportivo, Sevilla and Spartak. Their attacking force is the best in the world and can carry them to another domestic crown. The European title is a different story. Poor defensive positioning and a lack of offensive diversity cost them dearly against Chelsea.

11-25: Let's start off with the current mess that is Arsenal FC. There was a similar panic last year when Arsenal were hammered by United and showed no cutting edge after selling Fabregas and Nasri. However, this year has the feeling of 09-10 Liverpool more so than last year's third place finish. Is it time for Wenger to go? I don't think so - but if you do remove him you'd better have a big-name replacement. Wenger has made questionable subs and team selections this season, but the real problem is the players on the field. Andre Santos does not belong in the Premier League and Giroud has been awful in a Gunners shirt, just to name a few. Whether these decisions are the scorned board's or Wenger's are hard to tell. It is a difficult time for Arsenal. The Theo Walcott situation only makes it worse.. After over a year in the dark, Inter are officially back. The 3-1 win at Juventus (which pulled them within a point of the Old Lady) was a great performance, especially after being down less than twenty seconds into the game. This is a reloaded side under Andrea Stramaccioni, although their "old guard" of Milito, Cambiasso, Samuel, and Zanetti are still around. With rivals AC Milan still struggling and Napoli beginning to come back down to earth, Inter could be the second-best team in Italy by the end of the season.. Porto reenter the ranks as well after surging to the top of Group A as well as the Portuguese Liga on goal difference over Benfica. The goals are flying in and they are in a good position to put last year's embarrassing group stage exit to bed. The win over PSG was most impressive, as domestically, Porto and Benfica are rarely challenged nowadays. The emergence of Braga is the only threat to change that.. Is there a big club more under the radar than CSKA? After a shock loss to AIK in the Europa League playoffs, CSKA have reeled off ten wins out of eleven in what is arguably the most talented Russian Premier League of all time. Despite the run, big spenders Anzhi and Zenit are still right on their tail, just one and three points behind respectively. CSKA still have a lot of work to do, but can keep their players fresher, as the other two sides are both participating in European competition.