This international break is crucial for eight countries - Portugal, Croatia, Czech Republic, Ireland, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Turkey, Montenegro and Estonia will fight for the last four spots in Euro 2012, with the first leg at the unseeded opponent on Friday, followed by the second leg at the seeded opponent on Tuesday. At this stage, the favorites typically go through, but there are a number of surprise packages in this tournament's qualifying, so the ties should be very interesting. Slovenia's defeat of Russia to qualify for the 2010 World Cup gives all the underdogs at this stage hope to get through.
Portugal v. Bosnia-Herzegovina: These teams met in the 2010 World Cup qualifying's playoff round, with Portugal winning 1-0 home and away to head to South Africa. Both teams narrowly missed out on automatic qualification - Bosnia drew 1-1 in France when they needed a win, and Portugal fell 2-1 to Denmark when they needed just a draw. Portugal are clear favorites here, with star-power in Cristiano Ronaldo, Nani, and Danny just to name a few. Portugal are also under pressure, as coach Paolo Bento has been under scrutiny from both the press and his own players, with Jose Bosingwa and Ricardo Carvalho refusing to play for the country while he is coach. Bosnia is at the point where being "happy to play" is starting to wear off, as the country has made large strides in its football quality over the past five years. Edin Dzeko will lead the side - the Manchester City star scored in France to put his side twelve minutes away from automatic qualification. While Portugal are favorites here, this is a popular upset pick, and I think we will see an upset too. While many Portuguese would clearly want to see their team progress, I think Portugal need to lose this tie if they are ever going to return to being the powerhouse they were ten years ago. The team has a ton of talent, but it seems that they always underperform and there are issues with whichever coach is at the helm. A loss here would likely help them long-term. Bosnia has the ability to snatch this tie if they continue the form they showed in the group.
PREDICTION: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 Portugal, Portugal 2-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bosnia-Herzegovina advances 2-2 on away goals
Croatia v. Turkey: Croatia and Turkey are two teams of similar quality, and last met in Euro 2008 in one of the wildest games of the tournament. The game was 0-0 through 90 minutes, but Ivan Klasnic scored for Croatia on 119 minutes, only for Semih Senturk to score in the second minute of injury time (when there was only supposed to be one minute). Croatia missed all of their spot-kicks in the shootout and were eliminated, while feeling hard-done by the game's conclusion. Croatia missed the 2010 World Cup but seemed on course to automatically qualify until they lost 2-0 to Greece, moving them in the playoffs. The Turks have regressed since their semi-final appearance in Euro 2008, missing the 2010 World Cup and struggling through a rather weak Group A, qualifying by one point over Belgium. Guus Hiddink has not performed as well as Turkey's coach as many projected, and with the match-fixing affair in the national league, Turkish football has not been up to its previous quality. Croatia seem to be a fading power, despite the presence of Luka Modric, but they should be able to win this tie. The Turks have shown very little this year to think they could upset Croatia, and the Croats will be out for revenge for the tie in 2008.
PREDICTION: Turkey 1-1 Croatia, Croatia 2-0 Turkey. Croatia advances 3-1 on aggregate
Czech Republic v. Montenegro: Unlike Croatia, the Czech Republic is a fallen football power, struggling through the weakest qualifying group (by far, the only real challenger was Scotland) to make the playoffs by a point. Montenegro were the surprise of qualifying, making the playoffs ahead of Switzerland or Bulgaria, and drawing England home and away. The Czechs are not nearly the quality they once were, and while Montenegro is the smallest country still in qualifying, it can be argued that they are a better team. They conceded just seven goals in eight games, and while the scored just seven, this team has the feel of a side that can do just enough to win. The Czechs conceded just eight goals in eight games, with Petr Cech (if healthy) to lead the side in goal. Early goals will be crucial in this tie, even more than normal because of the defensive power of both sides. This is the most difficult tie to pick because one early goal will change the complexion of the whole tie. I'm going to pick another upset here, because Montenegro should be rewarded for playing far better in qualifying than the Czechs did.
PREDICTION: Czech Republic 0-0 Montenegro, Montenegro 1-0 Czech Republic. Montenegro advances 1-0 on aggregate
Ireland v. Estonia: Surprise challengers Estonia face Ireland in the last playoff tie. Ireland are overwhelming favorites, qualifying behind Russia in Group B. Estonia squeaked through Group C, qualifying more due to the inept play of Serbia and Slovenia than their own campaign. The Estonians did defeat Serbia and Slovenia away, but also lost away to the Faroe Islands. They are a true unknown, because their results have no pattern and their players are far from household names. Every team can be excused of a slip-up, but the 2-0 loss to the Faroes stands out. That type of result does not reflect the Estonians as being one of the best sixteen sides in Europe. Ireland have experience in their coaching and players, who went through the Thierry Henry-handball incident in 2010. They have the advantage in both quality and motivation. This is not completely straightforward for Ireland - they have faltered at this stage many times. However, this is the best opponent they could have drawn, and they should be able to control this tie.
PREDICTION: Estonia 1-2 Ireland, Ireland 2-0 Estonia. Ireland advances 4-1 on aggregate.
Check-in this weekend after the first legs. The ties could look very different if there are surprise results.
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